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The Wiz

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Great win last night.... we should have won in double digits but I will take 6 over an A rated team.   I am glad we were pushing at the end instead of running out the clock...but if you are going to push you can't be sloppy or careless....Focus is the key. For a more detailed analysis see The Wrap near the end of the Memphis spread thread.

Chance 2 Dance

72%...While we remain as an A- team overall...our C2D has jumped 10%...we have gained some standing with the win over Mem.

Crucial 4 games

1 down 3 to go...As I mentioned in the Polls thread the tourney games this weekend will all be close...all A- teams. Take the next 3 games one at a time and we can do this (sweep)...btw  when I am talking about the next 3 games,  I am talking about D1 schools only....There is no mighty Quinn.

Let's take a look at the report card

 
...................SLU....................Md..........................SLU..........................MD

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-......................C-............................D+............................A+...13th ITN

FG%...............B........................B-...........................B+.............................A

3P%..............B........................F+..............................B-............................A+...16th ITN

FT%...............A-.......................B+.................................................................

Reb...............A-........................C+.............................C.............................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off...PPG.............Def.....3P%

Down.........Off...3P%...Reb...FT%...Def...PPG...FG%...Reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st

Dou-Dou....Pickett..3rd...dn........Collins and Okoro...35th...both dn

Reb...Pickett....14th...dn..........Okoro...6th..up

PPG...Jimerson...79th...up

3PM...Jimerson...10th......up

Rebs/gm....The Bills...19th...dn

Def Rebs......The Bills ...7th...unch

Md

Rebs...Reese...93rd

FG%...Reese...33rd

Injury /illness report and misc

The Bills

10/21/22...Rivera ....out for the season...foot surgery

11/13/22...Kramer...Red shirting the entire season

Md

None

Keys to the game.....

Md is all about the D....Md is  like the Billiken teams of old...a slow motion game meant to keep the scores low.  Md is one of the best defenses we will play all year. They have a good starting 5 but unlike our previous opponents there is a bench ...with a twist. The second 5 will keep up the defensive pressure but the offense drops sharply. The bench is there to keep the pressure on...We need to score when the second 5 come in. ...Our bench needs to outscore their bench.  We should be able to dominate the boards which should give us some extra shots. They don't make many mistakes...take care of the ball. ...Finally, we are averaging 88 pts a game...we will be lucky to score 80 but we don't need to score 80 to win...73 is the magic number ...each point over 73 gives us a better chance to win each point below lowers our chances.

WWN2D2W...

Target slash ...48/ 38/ 77....TOs 11...Hold their top 4 scorers to 40 pts and Reece to 11pts and 6 rebs....Score 73 pts....

Bottom line....

Md has a tough D and doesn't make mistakes...Focus  for 40 mins of bball....The team that will win this game (and the tourney) is the team that wants it the most. Remember, Memphis  is a better overall team than Md...we beat Mem...we can beat Md.

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5 hours ago, The Wiz said:
 

Great win last night.... we should have won in double digits but I will take 6 over an A rated team.   I am glad we were pushing at the end instead of running out the clock...but if you are going to push you can't be sloppy or careless....Focus is the key. For a more detailed analysis see The Wrap near the end of the Memphis spread thread.

Chance 2 Dance

72%...While we remain as an A- team overall...our C2D has jumped 10%...we have gained some standing with the win over Mem.

Crucial 4 games

1 down 3 to go...As I mentioned in the Polls thread the tourney games this weekend will all be close...all A- teams. Take the next 3 games one at a time and we can do this (sweep)...btw  when I am talking about the next 3 games,  I am talking about D1 schools only....There is no mighty Quinn.

Let's take a look at the report card

 
...................SLU....................Md..........................SLU..........................MD

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-......................C-............................D+............................A+...13th ITN

FG%...............B........................B-...........................B+.............................A

3P%..............B........................F+..............................B-............................A+...16th ITN

FT%...............A-.......................B+.................................................................

Reb...............A-........................C+.............................C.............................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off...PPG....FT%.........Def.....3P%

Down.........Off...3P%...Reb...FT%...Def...PPG...FG%...Reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st

Dou-Dou....Pickett..3rd...dn........Collins and Okoro...35th...both dn

Reb...Pickett....14th...dn..........Okoro...6th..up

PPG...Jimerson...79th...up

3PM...Jimerson...10th......up

Rebs/gm....The Bills...19th...dn

Def Rebs......The Bills ...7th...unch

Md

Rebs...Reese...93rd

FG%...Reese...33rd

Injury /illness report and misc

The Bills

10/21/22...Rivera ....out for the season...foot surgery

11/13/22...Kramer...Red shirting the entire season

Md

None

Keys to the game.....

Md is all about the D....Md is  like the Billiken teams of old...a slow motion game meant to keep the scores low.  Md is one of the best defenses we will play all year. They have a good starting 5 but unlike our previous opponents there is a bench ...with a twist. The second 5 will keep up the defensive pressure but the offense drops sharply. The bench is there to keep the pressure on...We need to score when the second 5 come in. ...Our bench needs to outscore their bench.  We should be able to dominate the boards which should give us some extra shots. They don't make many mistakes...take care of the ball. ...Finally, we are averaging 88 pts a game...we will be lucky to score 80 but we don't need to score 80 to win...73 is the magic number ...each point over 73 gives us a better chance to win each point below lowers our chances.

WWN2D2W...

Target slash ...48/ 38/ 77....TOs 11...Hold their top 4 scorers to 40 pts and Reece to 11pts and 6 rebs....Score 73 pts....

Bottom line....

Md has a tough D and doesn't make mistakes...Focus  for 40 mins of bball....The team that will win this game (and the tourney) is the team that wants it the most. Remember, Memphis  is a better overall team than Md...we beat Mem...we can beat Md.

If we need to score 73 to win they aren’t like the Billikens of real old lol.

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5 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-Wiz, did our CTD really increase by 10%? also you have our FT% both up and down, guessing it did go down

-is there any benefit to playing a team with a new coach so early in the season? 

-a Big10 scalp would look real nice on the wall

Fixed the FT%...It was down

Yes, C2D did increase by 10% over the last game.  Even though our grade stayed the same at A- we did improve as a team especially in light of the fact that real data is saying we are a good team instead of forecasting data. In addition as you climb the ranking ladder small increases are worth more. The percentages go up exponentially.   For  instance, a move from 60th place to 50th place might be worth 10% but a move from 35th place to 25th place might improve your chances by 23%.

As for the new coach being more vulnerable to a loss early in the season. The answer in this case is no. Willard is an experience well seasoned coach...He has been there and done it. He is one of the top coaches to rack up Quad 1 wins on the NET in the last 4 years. He also has 28 wins against top 25 teams  including 18 against Top 15 teams...14 against top 10 and 6 against top 5. He also has the most nonconference wins against B10 teams since 2014 of any coach .  So if they lose to us , it won't be because of the Coach.

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Maryland has played....no one...so far.  They have 3 home Q4 wins under their belt, where we have (likely) a Q1, a Q3, and a Q4 wins.  The Terps beat Binghamton (253 KenPom), Niagara (263) and W. Carolina (283) all at home by an average of 22 points.  So what? 

[NET ratings won't be out for a while, so I'm speculating Q wins based on KenPom.]

We will be shorter than most teams we play this season.   Maryland will have 3 players 6'7" or taller on the floor at the same time.  Two are frontcourt Reese 6'9" and Scott 6'8".  Okay we are used to that and can handle them with Okoro/Forrester and Pickett/Thatch.  In the backcourt, 6'8" guard Hart gives us matchup problems if our previously listed players are already occupied.  Hart is not a huge three point threat, he has taken 8 and made 3 so far, but he is one to watch.  We might see Thatch and PIckett on the floor together more than we have in previous games.  Collins against their 6'1" PG Young should be no problem.

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just did a quick google and came up with nothing.....MD is supposed to have a great defense but is it a clutchy-grabby-punch you in the face defense?  or a quick hands steal the ball sort of defense? or a we played three crappy teams who can't shoot a lick so who the hell knows sort of defense?

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12 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

just did a quick google and came up with nothing.....MD is supposed to have a great defense but is it a clutchy-grabby-punch you in the face defense?  or a quick hands steal the ball sort of defense? or a we played three crappy teams who can't shoot a lick so who the hell knows sort of defense?

They're 2-0 have won over West Carolina and Binghampton. In both games they have held them to low 50's. Not exactly murderers' row.. 

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27 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Maryland has played....no one...so far.  They have 3 home Q4 wins under their belt, where we have (likely) a Q1, a Q3, and a Q4 wins.  The Terps beat Binghamton (253 KenPom), Niagara (263) and W. Carolina (283) all at home by an average of 22 points.  So what?  

We will be shorter than most teams we play this season.   Maryland will have 3 players 6'7" or taller on the floor at the same time.  Two are frontcourt Reese 6'9" and Scott 6'8".  Okay we are used to that and can handle them with Okoro/Forrester and Pickett/Thatch.  In the backcourt, 6'8" guard Hart gives us matchup problems if our previously listed players are already occupied.  Hart is not a huge three point threat, he has taken 8 and made 3 so far, but he is one to watch.  We might see Thatch and PIckett on the floor together more than we have in previous games.  Collins against their 6'1" PG Young should be no problem.

Md is a terrible 3P shooting team .   If you thought Mem was bad they are worse...Report card says F......Hart has shot 33% for the last 2 years.  He takes 3 shots every game and makes 1...the only reason  he is shooting 37.5% (3-8) this year is because he hasn't taken the 9th shot yet.  If he is their best 3 pt guy we are in good shape...They are more of a threat inside the arc but again our biggest concern will be the slower, methodical , defensive pace....73 is the magic number.

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15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Fixed the FT%...It was down

Yes, C2D did increase by 10% over the last game.  Even though our grade stayed the same at A- we did improve as a team especially in light of the fact that real data is saying we are a good team instead of forecasting data. In addition as you climb the ranking ladder small increases are worth more. The percentages go up exponentially.   For  instance, a move from 60th place to 50th place might be worth 10% but a move from 35th place to 25th place might improve your chances by 23%.

As for the new coach being more vulnerable to a loss early in the season. The answer in this case is no. Willard is an experience well seasoned coach...He has been there and done it. He is one of the top coaches to rack up Quad 1 wins on the NET in the last 4 years. He also has 28 wins against top 25 teams  including 18 against Top 15 teams...14 against top 10 and 6 against top 5. He also has the most nonconference wins against B10 teams since 2014 of any coach .  So if they lose to us , it won't be because of the Coach.

-thanks, so it's 10% and not 10pp?

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44 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Most worried about size. They go 6'1,6'5,6'8,6'8,6'9

And Memphis went 6-9/6-9 in the front court

Maryland, looks like they get smaller when they sub. See https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Maryland

Even if Hart can't shoot, Thatch, Pickett, and Hargrove will have to keep his boards low. Donta Scott might be able to shoot it a little. Only 29% last year but 44% in 2021 and 4-10 so far this year. Plays some 5 and Okoro hasn't done well historically against good shooting big men. Works both ways though, Niagara's C had 12&5. W Car's had 12 & 7. Binghamton's only had 5&2 but only played 15 mins. Seems like an opportunity for Okoro but that's after only a couple mins of looking.

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19 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

And Memphis went 6-9/6-9 in the front court

Maryland, looks like they get smaller when they sub. See https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Maryland

Even if Hart can't shoot, Thatch, Pickett, and Hargrove will have to keep his boards low. Donta Scott might be able to shoot it a little. Only 29% last year but 44% in 2021 and 4-10 so far this year. Plays some 5 and Okoro hasn't done well historically against good shooting big men. Works both ways though, Niagara's C had 12&5. W Car's had 12 & 7. Binghamton's only had 5&2 but only played 15 mins. Seems like an opportunity for Okoro but that's after only a couple mins of looking.

Memphis had length but williams was thin, Maryland has more size.  

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This is my addition to what the Wiz said. This does not question any of his results, they are good. This is my work trying to see if the Vegas line is overestimating or underestimating any specific school at a point in time. This time the two schools are SLU, of course, and Maryland. Both schools have played 3 games and won 3 games so far, but there are differences which may or may not be significant. The rankings I am providing in this post are the current Team Rankings ranks.

SLU is at 42. So far we have beaten Murray St. at 172, Evansville at 270, and Memphis at 35.

Maryland is at 36. So far they have beaten Niagara at 288, W. Carolina at 259, and Binghamton at 287.

Please note that we have beaten 3 schools with a higher ranking than what Maryland has beaten so far. Let's go into the stats, Team Ranking's published stats are based upon the games played for the current season. The TR stats for both schools are  at the bottom of this post. It is possible that the stats obtained against lower ranking schools are not directly comparable to the stats obtained against higher ranking schools, giving SLU a small edge.

The Vegas line for all games played by both schools appear not to overestimate or underestimate either school. The results have been very similar. Both schools went under the line or even with the line once. Both schools went over the line twice. I do not see a feasible under or overestimation play in favor of either school for this game.

Based upon the level of schools played in the last 3 games and the TR stats, it is possible that SLU might have a slight edge over Maryland for this game. I do not bet, but I believe a bet slightly over or below the Vegas line might make sense for this game.

Here are the stats, have fun

Offensive Stat Comparison

Stat SLU MD
Points/Game 88.0 72.7
Avg Score Margin +15.7 +22.0
Assists/Game 19.7 12.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 43.3 38.3
Effective FG % 55.4% 51.4%
Off Rebound % 31.5% 33.0%
FTA/FGA 0.318 0.278
Turnover % 12.5% 12.6%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Stat SLU MD
Opp Points/Game 72.3 50.7
Opp Effective FG % 42.4% 36.6%
Off Rebounds/Gm 9.7 10.0
Def Rebounds/Gm 31.7 26.0
Blocks/Game 3.3 5.7
Steals/Game 3.3 8.0
Personal Fouls/Gm 17.3 14.7
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Now, this is where it gets interesting. The Wiz has us even with Maryland. The Wiz's score for the defense and offense of the two teams shows SLU with an edge in offense and Maryland with an edge in defense. Overall we are even.

Team Rankings (which does not release their estimates to the non paying followers until  close to  the game), has Maryland favored to win but with  only one star of confidence, which really means they consider the teams even. However, the stats they show for both teams show SLU ahead in both defense and offense.

I have already posted that Maryland has 3 wins so far this season but they have only played against teams ranked in the high 200s. SLUs 3 wins have been against some higher ranked teams including Memphis in the top 50 ranking.  TR has not released their Vegas spread yet.

I think, considering both predictive models, that SLU most likely has an edge against Maryland tomorrow. It will, of course, depend on how well we play and it will be a tough game. However, I think we do have a small edge over Maryland. We will see tomorrow.

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9 minutes ago, shempie said:

Here is a preview from Maryland's perspective. 

Maryland men’s basketball Mohegan Sun preview - Testudo Times

It hadn't occurred to me that all 4 teams enter the event undefeated, all 3-0. I guess all 4 are going to learn a lot about how good they are this weekend.

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15 minutes ago, Pistol said:

It hadn't occurred to me that all 4 teams enter the event undefeated, all 3-0. I guess all 4 are going to learn a lot about how good they are this weekend.

I guess whoever selected the teams for this year’s tournament did a great job. Should be exciting basketball. I didn’t know Miami Coach Jim Larranaga was only 1 win away from 700 career coaching wins, that’s quite a milestone. I guess I will root for them to be facing the Billikens on the winners bracket for that reason. A sweep by the Billikens would be 2 great wins over quality opponents, but first gotta bear Maryland. Roll Billikens!

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43 minutes ago, shempie said:

Here is a preview from Maryland's perspective. 

 

Maryland men’s basketball Mohegan Sun preview - Testudo Times

This writer must be seeing something the rest of us aren't.  

[Javonte Perkins] appears to be back to his pre-injury form, averaging 12 points per game this season, including a 21-point performance in the season-opener.

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