The Bills over Mem by 2

[The Wiz]

 

A Wiz Win (18pts)  last night. For a post game wrap see the Eville spread thread.

A few items before we get to the nitty gritty.

Chance 2 Dance

62%

Crucial 4 games

So this game is the 1st of 4 consecutive games, all of which will be very tough. All the  teams coming up are rated at A- or better at this time   So what are our chances?  We have the chance to sweep all 4 or lose all 4.....Here is how these games will affect us 

4-0....Perfect....Let the madness begin

3-1...Excellent...we are on our way

2-2..............Good...on track

1-3...not so good....more work to do

0-4...bad....back to the drawing board

Now onto the game.

Memphis comes in as an A team....The Bills remain at A-. The Bills have a 53% chance to win this game.

Let's take a look at the improving report card

 

...................SLU....................Mem..........................SLU..........................Mem

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+......................C............................C............................C

FG%...............B........................B+...........................A-..........................C

3P%..............B+......................D-..............................C+............................D-

FT%...............A.......................A+ (2nd ITN).................................................................

Reb...............A.........................D+.............................B.............................A-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

 

UP...............Off...FG%..3P%..FT%..Reb.......Def.....FG%..3P%..Reb

Down.........Off...none.....Def...none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st

Dou-Dou....Pickett...1st....18th...Collins and Okoro

Reb...Pickett....7th....Okoro...10th

PPG...Jimerson...98th

3PM...Jimerson...14th.......Perkins 66th

Rebs/gm....The Bills...11th

Def Rebs......The Bills ...7th

Mem

Rebs...Lomax...46th

Assts...Davis...42nd

Stls...Lomax...41st

Injury /illness report and misc

The Bills

10/21/22...Rivera ....out for the season...foot surgery

11/13/22...Kramer...Red shirting the entire season

Memphis

11/8/22.....Young...Eligibility issues...unknown when he will be back

11/10/22...Franklin...."................".................."..........."......."...."...."........"

11/10/22....Granja.....undisclosed ailment.....It is unclear at this time if he will play against The Bills

Keys to the game..... The key to the game...is the 3P shot for Memphis...Both shooting it and defending it ...they have trouble with both. Memphis can shoot if we leave them alone...bother them and they will miss...and they will turn the ball over.  Another key is depth.  Like Eville they have a good starting 5 ...but after that not much ...wear them down...stay close till the 4th quarter then try to open up some daylight...start to run.

WWN2D2W...We need to stop their big 3...Lomax, Davis and Williams...hold them to 33pts....Hold Lomax to 6 rebs ...Who ever Lomax is guarding needs to protect the ball...Hold him to 1 steal.  Don't foul them ...they are 2nd ITN in FT%...11 TOs or less for the Bills....Target slash 50/45/ 75...out rebound them by double digits.

Bottom line....Can we win this game?...Most definitely...We have more depth and better shooters. We showed last night we can defend...as Eville 3P shooting dropped from 43% in the 1st half to zero in the 2nd half.  Memphis can not win this game but we could give it to them if we play sloppy or careless....Play 40 minutes of focused bball and we win.  Go Bills

[Old guy]

Wiz, please explain something I do not understand. I know Memphis is a very good team and your rating is A, which is better than our A- rating. However, let's look at the report card for both teams:

SLU: Offense 2 As, 2B+ and one B.           Mem: Offense 1 A+, 1 B+, 1 C, 1 D+, and 1 D-

SLU: Defense 1 A-, 1 B, 1 C+, and 1 C        Mem: Defense 1 A-, 2C, and 1D-

Looking at the report cards for both teams it is hard for me to understand why Memphis is rated at A, and we are rated A-. Could you please elaborate?

I agree this one will be a tough game, one I think we have to play using all our team's talent (I am thinking about Parker specifically) and play a fast moving game. We may win this game, but as your 2 pt. advantage for SLU shows, it will not be easy and either team may win the game.

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, please explain something I do not understand. I know Memphis is a very good team and your rating is A, which is better than our A- rating. However, let's look at the report card for both teams:

SLU: Offense 2 As, 2B+ and one B.           Mem: Offense 1 A+, 1 B+, 1 C, 1 D+, and 1 D-

SLU: Defense 1 A-, 1 B, 1 C+, and 1 C        Mem: Defense 1 A-, 2C, and 1D-

Looking at the report cards for both teams it is hard for me to understand why Memphis is rated at A, and we are rated A-. Could you please elaborate?

I agree this one will be a tough game, one I think we have to play using all our team's talent (I am thinking about Parker specifically) and play a fast moving game. We may win this game, but as your 2 pt. advantage for SLU shows, it will not be easy and either team may win the game.

 A few factors are at work here...On the real data side...Mem has played better competition (even if it's just 1 game) Vandy is better than either Murr St or Eville.  But even before the season started I had Memphis at A  based on my Bayesian model. ...A Bayesian model is a forecasting tool that doesn't use real data. What is happening now is the real data is blending with the Bayesian model and  will keep doing that until the 8th game when it will all be real data.  So with 1 game under its belt Memphis is benefitting from the remnants of the predictive tool.   One thing the computer sees right away is who is playing and who is not....It understands that Memphis doesn't have the depth (bench) at this point that SLU does.

I guarantee you that if SLU wins on Tues. those grade will flip or  at least be equal....SLU   A   and    Mem A-

The next 4 games will tell the tale of the tape.

[Old guy]

I am glad to see your explanation which is entirely reasonable. In the time since I posted my prior questions, I was thinking about another and very reasonable explanation for the seeming discrepancy shown in your model between the team ratings as a whole, and the ratings for the individual categories of defense and offense for each team in your score card. My conclusion is that your system, when it rates a team as a whole, is basically using the sum total of the stats available in a way that it is capable to come up with an overall rating that goes beyond the individual categories of offense and defense. This overall rating for each team is independent, to some degree, of the sum of the ratings of the individual categories of defense and offense.

Team play is definitely a lot more complex than the simple sum of the statistical categories in offense and defense. Playing a game involves a whole load of factors that are not considered in the specific offense and defense categories. As such the rating of a team, by your model appears to go beyond the categories rated in the rating card. I am both surprised and delighted to find that your model is capable, in the bayesian phase of the season's calculations, to separate and rate the way teams play as a whole. Your model is capable of providing an approximation of these factors involved in play that are not considered in the specific categories measured. Congratulations, this is very very good and took me by surprise to find this out.

Your explanation of the seeming discrepancy points in a round about manner to what I just described when you mention factors like prior play with better competition, and depth of bench. Neither of these factors are included in the offense and defense categories of the rating card, BUT they are important factors determining the game's outcome. Again, congratulations, your model is really very very good. Wonderful stuff Wiz.

[HoosierPal]

The Tigers come into STL 1-0, beating Vanderbilt at Nashville this past Monday, 76-67.  So do we have an advantage of playing twice to their once?  Perhaps.

6'9" DeAndre Williams, a transfer from Evansville- {a couple of seasons ago} lead the Tiger's with 17 and 6' Kendric Davis, transfer from SMU, added 16. 6' guard Alex Lomax grabbed 10 boards. 6'9" Dandridge and 6'5" Kennedy filled out their starting five. 

 

[Old guy]

That is not the only thing that is important about the Memphis vs Vanderbilt game. As per TR's Vegas line Memphis was expected to win by 2 pts, they won by 9. The Vegas line underestimated Memphis as far as this game went.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

That is not the only thing that is important about the Memphis vs Vanderbilt game. As per TR's Vegas line Memphis was expected to win by 2 pts, they won by 9. The Vegas line underestimated Memphis as far as this game went.

Either that or they overestimated Vandy, who also lost at home to Southern Miss by 12 when favored by 16.5

[Old guy]

Vegas line is, at least at the beginning of a season, a bit of a "beauty contest" with people betting on those that they believe to be best. Reality is different, the players in the teams change, sometimes there are new coaches as well. As a result teams may not play like in prior years and no shuffling of old statistics is going to show the way to win clearly. Consistent overestimating of a team in the Vegas line can be used to bet, at least at the early portion of the season.

By the way, I do not bet

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

11/10/22...Franklin...."................".................."..........."......."...."...."........"

What does this mean? Did the teacher from Peanuts write this segment, lol?

[billikenbill]

I believe it means:

Eligibility issues...unknown when he will be back.

[CBFan]

If our team cannot beat Memphis then what kind of team must coach Ford build to beat a team at home like Memphis.

One of the Billikens biggest advantage compared to Memphis is good experienced players such as Collins, Jimerson, Okoro, Perkins, Thatch, Hargrove have played and practiced together for years.  It is time for these players to take advantage of that at home with a team like Memphis.

Because of experience, 3 point shooting, and depth I expect these players to win a game like this at home because if not now, when?

No more excuses.

 

[slu72]

This would be a bad L. All L’s are bad but this one would deserve an *. We’re at home. We’re more experienced. We’re deeper. They have a lot of new parts. Penny is not exactly John Wooden as his loaded teams often disappoint. 
What concerns me is our lack of a killer instinct. We get up and then tend to coast. Can’t do that in these upcoming games. Hopefully, E’ville game was a wake up call that any team can rise up and bite us in the ass if you don’t stay focused and fierce. Go Bills! 

[3star_recruit]

20 minutes ago, CBFan said:

If our team cannot beat Memphis then what kind of team must coach Ford build to beat a team at home like Memphis.

One of the Billikens biggest advantage compared to Memphis is good experienced players such as Collins, Jimerson, Okoro, Perkins, Thatch, Hargrove have played and practiced together for years.  It is time for these players to take advantage of that at home with a team like Memphis.

Because of experience, 3 point shooting, and depth I expect these players to win a game like this at home because if not now, when?

No more excuses.

 

Coach Ford has already built a team to beat a team at home like Memphis.  See LSU.  I think last year's late game struggles have scarred us so much we have forgotten how well we started the season two years ago.

Kendric Davis is a proven all-conference player who gives Memphis the point guard they never had last year.  Should be a good game.

[CBFan]

27 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Coach Ford has already built a team to beat a team at home like Memphis.  See LSU.  I think last year's late game struggles have scarred us so much we have forgotten how well we started the season two years ago.

Kendric Davis is a proven all-conference player who gives Memphis the point guard they never had last year.  Should be a good game.

Good post, the differences last season was not having Perkins and relying on a freshman to fill that position and Okoro was trying to find himself.

I did not expect the Billikens to beat Auburn last season however I expected the Billikens to beat LSU which proves your point.

 

[The Wiz]

Just a technical point....If some of the charts (like the report card or injury report) seem like a jumble try turning your phone on its side and that will lineup the columns. If that doesn't work, try going to settings and turn on auto rotate (usually under Display) then turn your phone on its side and things should line up and make sense.

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

2 hours ago, billikenbill said:

I believe it means:

Eligibility issues...unknown when he will be back.

I completely forgot my middle school education where I learned that that means "same here" in shorthand.

[wgstl]

Man they really aren't a great 3 point shooting team and height wise, pretty small. 

 

 

[dlarry]

I was listening to Chapley’s “Billiken Babble” before the Evansville game. At the end he mentioned Memphis was putting out some bulletin board material that should hype up the Bills. He said he would get into it the next pod. 

 

Anybody know what that’s all about? 

[BillsBeliever!!!]

3 hours ago, CBFan said:

If our team cannot beat Memphis then what kind of team must coach Ford build to beat a team at home like Memphis.

One of the Billikens biggest advantage compared to Memphis is good experienced players such as Collins, Jimerson, Okoro, Perkins, Thatch, Hargrove have played and practiced together for years.  It is time for these players to take advantage of that at home with a team like Memphis.

Because of experience, 3 point shooting, and depth I expect these players to win a game like this at home because if not now, when?

No more excuses.

 

Memphis is ranked 6th in experience, SLU 10th. It’s a strength of both teams. Memphis plays only seniors and super seniors. 

[Old guy]

It is a lot more than a test of the teams, it is a test of the coaches as well. We can win as long as Ford takes over and LEADS the team. Take Yuri out the moment he starts dribbling slowly up the court and throwing rocks. Ford needs to keep the team going.

[billikenbill]

3 hours ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:

I completely forgot my middle school education where I learned that that means "same here" in shorthand.

I was just having fun with it.

[gobillsgo]

Bills by 22

[AnkielBreakers]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

It is a lot more than a test of the teams, it is a test of the coaches as well. We can win as long as Ford takes over and LEADS the team. Take Yuri out the moment he starts dribbling slowly up the court and throwing rocks. Ford needs to keep the team going.

Right. Quick question, has a Billiken ever had 13 assists and zero turnovers before the MSU game? People have lost all perspective on Collins. When he is gone from this program, you will feel the pain for a long time.

[CBFan]

2 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Memphis is ranked 6th in experience, SLU 10th. It’s a strength of both teams. Memphis plays only seniors and super seniors. 

My point is experienced that has played and practiced together in the same system that is why I did not name Forrester and Pickett.

Yuri 3 years, Jimerson 3 years, Thatch 3 years Hargrove 3 years Perkins 2 years and Okoro 2 years in the same system, how does Memphis compare to that?

[The Wiz]

One thing I failed to mention in the original report  that is important is about Franklin the ineligible Mem player I listed in the Injury and misc area. He was their leader in  scoring(17.8 pts) and rebounding (6.9 rebs)...4 Dou  Dou...started 26 games...10 games of 20+pts...season highs of 28pts and 14 rebs and 6 assists.

This is a significant loss for Mem.  They didn't need him against Vandy but his absence will be felt against The Bills.