The Bills over Eville by 18

[The Wiz]

The good news from last night's game is we have moved up to A- and MSU has dropped to C+...these grades are probably closer to reality. I think the computer believed in the Bills but needed to see some real data....It did and liked what it saw. For a more detailed post game  analysis see The Wrap in the MSU spread thread.

A quick diversion and then we will get started.

In the preseason forecast under the topic of Chance to Dance, I showed we had an 86% C2D. That was a projection forward using the entire upcoming season. On future game spreads, I will show the current C2D  ie  what would the chances be if the season ended today.  I will then update those chances in every spread thread as long as we remain above 50%. As of today , we currently stand at 58%.  In other words , if the NCAA picked Dance teams today, we would have a 58% chance to be selected to be in March Madness.  In addition, we are now showing as the team most likely to win the A-10 conf title.  Of course , the computer says not to celebrate yet as it wants to see 7 more games of data before it goes shopping for a party hat. The point is not whether our chances are  58% or 59% but to track and see whether we are on target to make the Dance as the season progresses.

One last thing, in 5 or 6 games I will start a new "sleepy time" feature.  I think it will be something Board readers will enjoy...stay tuned.

OK ...now let's do some Eville...The Aces come in with a win but are also carrying a D+ grade. As you can see by the spread, we should win this game handily...and we will as long as we take care of business. 

 

Let's look at the report card 

 

...................SLU....................Eville..........................SLU.........................Eville

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.......................B-.............................C............................C-

FG%...............B-.......................B-..............................B-..........................B+

3P%..............C+......................C.................................C-............................B-

FT%...............C+.......................B..................................................................

Reb...............A-.........................D+.............................C+.............................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st

Stls......Thatch...72nd

Dou-Dou....Pickett...1st

Reb...Okoro and Pickett....15th tied

PPG...Perkins...95th

Eville

PPG....Strawbridge....48th

Rebs...Kalle...87th

Injury /illness report

10/21/22...Rivera (SLU)....out for the season...foot surgery

We have had better report cards but this is ok for a first one.  The good news is there is lots of room for improvement. Other teams have better report cards because they start the season playing a cupcake. MSU no cupcake.  And while the Aces  aren't a great team, they don't qualify as a cream puff.  Let's dig a little deeper

Keys to the game..... Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth.   As for the Bills, they need to make some 3s. One of the things, I will be watching this season is the 3 vs 2 efficiency.  You multiply the 3P% by 1.5 and that gives you an equivalency to the 2P%.  In the last game our 2 pt%  was 58% ,,,our 3p% equivalency was 48%...58% vs 48% means you should be taking more 2s.     39%+ from the arc is the breakeven point.  Of course this is just 1 game but because we will be taking a large volume of 3P shots this year, it bears watching.

WWN2D2W...Strawbridge is their go to guy ...Contain him and we win.  Hold him to 15 pts.  Kalle is there rebounder...hold him to 6 rebs.  Overall, we should out rebound them by double digits.  As for TOs we need to continue to protect the ball. Looked good last night ...let's do it again...The Aces need to have 4+ TOs more than the Bills.  SLU target slash of 50/40/70... We needed 2 more 3PM and we would have made the target last night. ...very doable.... Finally let's use their lack of depth...our bench needs to outscore their bench by double digits.

Bottom line....We need to use this game as a stepping stone ...to build on last night's game against MSU.  Fine tune the shooting and close some of the gaps on defense so that we are ready for the real heat which will begin in about a week .  Let's Ace the Eville.

[almaman]

Trademark C2D

[Old guy]

I would just add a note to your report Wiz. This appears to be a very winnable game. It would be SO MUCH BETTER for us if our team played using their best effort, rather than adapting to Eville's way of play like the Bills have a tendency to do with inferior teams. We need to win this game, and as many of the other games we can, by a lot of points to cement our current ranking and keep on the motion forward. This is not a matter of just winning, it is a matter of crunching them, which I am sure we can do.

[joe_davola]

Nobody beats the Wiz!

[slu72]

Tx Wiz for all your wisdom! 

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

the computer says not to celebrate yet as it wants to see 7 more games of data before it goes shopping for a party hat

The Computer's sentience is my favorite running gag on these GameDay previews 

[Box and Won]

Looks like it's time to dust off this old gem for YOU PEOPLE IN EVANSVILLE.

 

[The Wiz]

42 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

Looks like it's time to dust off this old gem for YOU PEOPLE IN EVANSVILLE.

 

Well , now that you have brought it up , I guess I will have to finish it....The last time the Bills played Eville was 1998...and we lost by 30 pts ...85-55...and yes...Jimmy was the coach.

Payback time on Saturday

[Billiken Rich]

hard to believe its been that long.....

[ACE]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Well , now that you have brought it up , I guess I will have to finish it....The last time the Bills played Eville was 1998...and we lost by 30 pts ...85-55...and yes...Jimmy was the coach.

Payback time on Saturday

According to SLU website the game was played in Hawaii and SLU won by 30.

[Compton]

20 minutes ago, ACE said:

According to SLU website the game was played in Hawaii and SLU won by 30.

Same for sports-reference.com.

Maybe the "we" is The Wiz inadvertently revealing that he considers himself a Purple Aces fan above all else.

[The Wiz]

27 minutes ago, ACE said:

According to SLU website the game was played in Hawaii and SLU won by 30.

That is correct... I forgot I had changed over to the Eville data site when I entered 1998 game.

So instead of payback....Let's do it again by 30

[CenHudDude]

6 hours ago, Box and Won said:

Looks like it's time to dust off this old gem for YOU PEOPLE IN EVANSVILLE.

 

WOW!  This Jimmy guy sounds great.  Can’t we find a spot on Travis’s staff for him?

[The Wiz]

22 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

WOW!  This Jimmy guy sounds great.  Can’t we find a spot on Travis’s staff for him?

 

[Aquinas]

On 11/8/2022 at 8:38 PM, The Wiz said:

The good news from last night's game is we have moved up to A- and MSU has dropped to C+...these grades are probably closer to reality. I think the computer believed in the Bills but needed to see some real data....It did and liked what it saw. For a more detailed post game  analysis see The Wrap in the MSU spread thread.

A quick diversion and then we will get started.

In the preseason forecast under the topic of Chance to Dance, I showed we had an 86% C2D. That was a projection forward using the entire upcoming season. On future game spreads, I will show the current C2D  ie  what would the chances be if the season ended today.  I will then update those chances in every spread thread as long as we remain above 50%. As of today , we currently stand at 58%.  In other words , if the NCAA picked Dance teams today, we would have a 58% chance to be selected to be in March Madness.  In addition, we are now showing as the team most likely to win the A-10 conf title.  Of course , the computer says not to celebrate yet as it wants to see 7 more games of data before it goes shopping for a party hat. The point is not whether our chances are  58% or 59% but to track and see whether we are on target to make the Dance as the season progresses.

One last thing, in 5 or 6 games I will start a new "sleepy time" feature.  I think it will be something Board readers will enjoy...stay tuned.

OK ...now let's do some Eville...The Aces come in with a win but are also carrying a D+ grade. As you can see by the spread, we should win this game handily...and we will as long as we take care of business. 

 

Let's look at the report card 

 

...................SLU....................Eville..........................SLU.........................Eville

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+.......................B-.............................C............................C-

FG%...............B-.......................B-..............................B-..........................B+

3P%..............C+......................C.................................C-............................B-

FT%...............C+.......................B..................................................................

Reb...............A-.........................D+.............................C+.............................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st

Stls......Thatch...72nd

Dou-Dou....Pickett...1st

Reb...Okoro and Pickett....15th tied

PPG...Perkins...95th

Eville

PPG....Strawbridge....48th

Rebs...Kalle...87th

Injury /illness report

10/21/22...Rivera (SLU)....out for the season...foot surgery

We have had better report cards but this is ok for a first one.  The good news is there is lots of room for improvement. Other teams have better report cards because they start the season playing a cupcake. MSU no cupcake.  And while the Aces  aren't a great team, they don't qualify as a cream puff.  Let's dig a little deeper

Keys to the game..... Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth.   As for the Bills, they need to make some 3s. One of the things, I will be watching this season is the 3 vs 2 efficiency.  You multiply the 3P% by 1.5 and that gives you an equivalency to the 2P%.  In the last game our 2 pt%  was 58% ,,,our 3p% equivalency was 48%...58% vs 48% means you should be taking more 2s.     39%+ from the arc is the breakeven point.  Of course this is just 1 game but because we will be taking a large volume of 3P shots this year, it bears watching.

WWN2D2W...Strawbridge is their go to guy ...Contain him and we win.  Hold him to 15 pts.  Kalle is there rebounder...hold him to 6 rebs.  Overall, we should out rebound them by double digits.  As for TOs we need to continue to protect the ball. Looked good last night ...let's do it again...The Aces need to have 4+ TOs more than the Bills.  SLU target slash of 50/40/70... We needed 2 more 3PM and we would have made the target last night. ...very doable.... Finally let's use their lack of depth...our bench needs to outscore their bench by double digits.

Bottom line....We need to use this game as a stepping stone ...to build on last night's game against MSU.  Fine tune the shooting and close some of the gaps on defense so that we are ready for the real heat which will begin in about a week .  Let's Ace the Eville.

Wiz, what number rank do you show us? IE 40th in the country or what?

[The Wiz]

8 hours ago, Aquinas said:

Wiz, what number rank do you show us? IE 40th in the country or what?

I like to use grades because teams tend to bunch up and the differences in the rankings can be negligible especially in the beginning of the season (1st 8 games). I tend to look at rankings when a team enters the top 25. Even then  most of the voters  are going on hype  or old time favorites or Power 5s. The first 12 are pretty much a consensus not only among voters but the computers too.  I think that most voters can only follow about a dozen teams closely and then have to fill up their voting card with another 13 teams. The thing about the top 25 is as long as you can stay there you are a lock for The Dance plus it allows you to start looking at seeding positions ie the top 5 or 6 seeds.

So to answer your question, I would put The Bills at 43 right now.

[willie]

I give this post a C- for underrating the Bills an A+ team. 

[The Wiz]

17 minutes ago, willie said:

I give this post a C- for underrating the Bills an A+ team. 

It's not that I am underrating them...You are just a little early...You are a man ahead of your time.

[Major Majerus]

1 hour ago, willie said:

I give this post a C- for underrating the Bills an A+ team. 

[Old guy]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I like to use grades because teams tend to bunch up and the differences in the rankings can be negligible especially in the beginning of the season (1st 8 games). I tend to look at rankings when a team enters the top 25. Even then  most of the voters  are going on hype  or old time favorites or Power 5s. The first 12 are pretty much a consensus not only among voters but the computers too.  I think that most voters can only follow about a dozen teams closely and then have to fill up their voting card with another 13 teams. The thing about the top 25 is as long as you can stay there you are a lock for The Dance plus it allows you to start looking at seeding positions ie the top 5 or 6 seeds.

So to answer your question, I would put The Bills at 43 right now.

Totally agree that ranking a team after playing on game of the season is far from reflecting the true ranking of the team, that can only be ascertained after playing multiple games. That said, Team Rankings upped SLU to a 41 overall ranking after our first game.

[Old guy]

Team Rankings published its Vegas line inspired odds for the game tomorrow, we are expected to win over Evansville by 24 pts. SLU's stats are better offensively and defensively than Evansville in every category except in FTA/FGA (Evansville 0.333, SLU 0.216), and Blocks per game (Evansville 2, SLU 1). Both schools are even in Steals per game at 5.

In order to keep our forward motion in the rankings we should win by around 30.

[Spoon-Balls]

On 11/8/2022 at 5:38 PM, The Wiz said:

Keys to the game..... Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth.   As for the Bills, they need to make some 3s. One of the things, I will be watching this season is the 3 vs 2 efficiency.  You multiply the 3P% by 1.5 and that gives you an equivalency to the 2P%.  In the last game our 2 pt%  was 58% ,,,our 3p% equivalency was 48%...58% vs 48% means you should be taking more 2s.     39%+ from the arc is the breakeven point.  Of course this is just 1 game but because we will be taking a large volume of 3P shots this year, it bears watching.

Prescient 

[The Wiz]

A win by 18 is a Wiz Win.

We were the  better team...before the game...and after the game....But this game had a Jekyll and Hyde flavor to it...especially when we look at TOs.  In the 1st half we had 9 TOs  ( F- )...in the 2nd half we had 3 TOs ( A+ )...at the end of the 1st half we are losing to a weak team...in the 2nd half we are crushing them.  As the TOs go...so goes the team. I don't care how good the team is, if you are giving up TOs at a rate of 18/gm you aren't going to win many games.

Fortunately, the shooting was good....better than good.   What is better than good?  How about 201.   Majerus use to say anyone (team or individual) that can shoot 180 or better has a winning formula. You take the slash line and add it up....Tonight the Bills shot 51/ 50 / 100 =201. And to top it off it was consistent ...super consistent.  1st half 50/50/100...2nd half ..52/ 50 / 100........2P% =51%....3P%=50%....granted this was just 1 game but the consistency bodes well for the future.

Let's take a closer look at what happened....Bolded print is from the original post.

Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth.... We wore them down. The key to the game.

Strawbridge is their go to guy ...Contain him and we win.  Hold him to 15 pts...  He had 8...We did and we did ....excellent

Kalle is there rebounder...hold him to 6 rebs. .. He had 2....again excellent.

Overall, we should out rebound them by double digits.  ...We out rebounded them by 16....the excellence continues

SLU target slash of 50/40/70 ...Actual 51/50/ 100....super excellent

.. let's use their lack of depth...our bench needs to outscore their bench by double digits. ...They had 26 pts to our 13...on the surface this looks like a fail BUT even this worked out. The had 6 players who had 24+ mins.  Their top 2 had 25 pts...the next 4 had 25pts....buy holding their main players to 50 pts....there was really no one left to score for them

The Aces need to have 4+ TOs more than the Bills...  This was not doable...The Aces had 6 TOs. It is unrealistic to expect the Bills or any other team to have only 2 TOs in a game. When the opposing team has single digit TOs , you tip your cap and try to stay as close to 11 or less as you can. We did that  Fortunately, we got the TO problem under control in the 2nd half....had we not, it could have meant a dozen more Eville pts.

One last thing ....Eville 3P% in the 2nd half was ZERO...They shot a decent 43% in the 1st half ....had they done that again in the 2nd half it would have been an additional 9 pts for the Aces.

Bottom line ...We did what we had to do when we had to do it...Sign of a good team.

[Old guy]

I am in total agreement with you, we are a good team. But, could we be better? We will see what happens against Memphis.