The Wiz Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 The good news from last night's game is we have moved up to A- and MSU has dropped to C+...these grades are probably closer to reality. I think the computer believed in the Bills but needed to see some real data....It did and liked what it saw. For a more detailed post game analysis see The Wrap in the MSU spread thread. A quick diversion and then we will get started. In the preseason forecast under the topic of Chance to Dance, I showed we had an 86% C2D. That was a projection forward using the entire upcoming season. On future game spreads, I will show the current C2D ie what would the chances be if the season ended today. I will then update those chances in every spread thread as long as we remain above 50%. As of today , we currently stand at 58%. In other words , if the NCAA picked Dance teams today, we would have a 58% chance to be selected to be in March Madness. In addition, we are now showing as the team most likely to win the A-10 conf title. Of course , the computer says not to celebrate yet as it wants to see 7 more games of data before it goes shopping for a party hat. The point is not whether our chances are 58% or 59% but to track and see whether we are on target to make the Dance as the season progresses. One last thing, in 5 or 6 games I will start a new "sleepy time" feature. I think it will be something Board readers will enjoy...stay tuned. OK ...now let's do some Eville...The Aces come in with a win but are also carrying a D+ grade. As you can see by the spread, we should win this game handily...and we will as long as we take care of business. Let's look at the report card ...................SLU....................Eville..........................SLU.........................Eville .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+.......................B-.............................C............................C- FG%...............B-.......................B-..............................B-..........................B+ 3P%..............C+......................C.................................C-............................B- FT%...............C+.......................B.................................................................. Reb...............A-.........................D+.............................C+.............................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st Stls......Thatch...72nd Dou-Dou....Pickett...1st Reb...Okoro and Pickett....15th tied PPG...Perkins...95th Eville PPG....Strawbridge....48th Rebs...Kalle...87th Injury /illness report 10/21/22...Rivera (SLU)....out for the season...foot surgery We have had better report cards but this is ok for a first one. The good news is there is lots of room for improvement. Other teams have better report cards because they start the season playing a cupcake. MSU no cupcake. And while the Aces aren't a great team, they don't qualify as a cream puff. Let's dig a little deeper Keys to the game..... Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth. As for the Bills, they need to make some 3s. One of the things, I will be watching this season is the 3 vs 2 efficiency. You multiply the 3P% by 1.5 and that gives you an equivalency to the 2P%. In the last game our 2 pt% was 58% ,,,our 3p% equivalency was 48%...58% vs 48% means you should be taking more 2s. 39%+ from the arc is the breakeven point. Of course this is just 1 game but because we will be taking a large volume of 3P shots this year, it bears watching. WWN2D2W...Strawbridge is their go to guy ...Contain him and we win. Hold him to 15 pts. Kalle is there rebounder...hold him to 6 rebs. Overall, we should out rebound them by double digits. As for TOs we need to continue to protect the ball. Looked good last night ...let's do it again...The Aces need to have 4+ TOs more than the Bills. SLU target slash of 50/40/70... We needed 2 more 3PM and we would have made the target last night. ...very doable.... Finally let's use their lack of depth...our bench needs to outscore their bench by double digits. Bottom line....We need to use this game as a stepping stone ...to build on last night's game against MSU. Fine tune the shooting and close some of the gaps on defense so that we are ready for the real heat which will begin in about a week . Let's Ace the Eville. Adman, BuiltFordBills, brianstl and 5 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Trademark C2D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I would just add a note to your report Wiz. This appears to be a very winnable game. It would be SO MUCH BETTER for us if our team played using their best effort, rather than adapting to Eville's way of play like the Bills have a tendency to do with inferior teams. We need to win this game, and as many of the other games we can, by a lot of points to cement our current ranking and keep on the motion forward. This is not a matter of just winning, it is a matter of crunching them, which I am sure we can do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Nobody beats the Wiz! brianstl likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Tx Wiz for all your wisdom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 11 hours ago, The Wiz said: the computer says not to celebrate yet as it wants to see 7 more games of data before it goes shopping for a party hat The Computer's sentience is my favorite running gag on these GameDay previews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Looks like it's time to dust off this old gem for YOU PEOPLE IN EVANSVILLE. Pistol, thetorch and SLUMedBilliken15 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 42 minutes ago, Box and Won said: Looks like it's time to dust off this old gem for YOU PEOPLE IN EVANSVILLE. Well , now that you have brought it up , I guess I will have to finish it....The last time the Bills played Eville was 1998...and we lost by 30 pts ...85-55...and yes...Jimmy was the coach. Payback time on Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 hard to believe its been that long..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: Well , now that you have brought it up , I guess I will have to finish it....The last time the Bills played Eville was 1998...and we lost by 30 pts ...85-55...and yes...Jimmy was the coach. Payback time on Saturday According to SLU website the game was played in Hawaii and SLU won by 30. thetorch likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compton Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, ACE said: According to SLU website the game was played in Hawaii and SLU won by 30. Same for sports-reference.com. Maybe the "we" is The Wiz inadvertently revealing that he considers himself a Purple Aces fan above all else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, ACE said: According to SLU website the game was played in Hawaii and SLU won by 30. That is correct... I forgot I had changed over to the Eville data site when I entered 1998 game. So instead of payback....Let's do it again by 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 6 hours ago, Box and Won said: Looks like it's time to dust off this old gem for YOU PEOPLE IN EVANSVILLE. WOW! This Jimmy guy sounds great. Can’t we find a spot on Travis’s staff for him? SLUMedBilliken15 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: WOW! This Jimmy guy sounds great. Can’t we find a spot on Travis’s staff for him? CenHudDude, Westy03, SLUMedBilliken15 and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aquinas Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 On 11/8/2022 at 8:38 PM, The Wiz said: The good news from last night's game is we have moved up to A- and MSU has dropped to C+...these grades are probably closer to reality. I think the computer believed in the Bills but needed to see some real data....It did and liked what it saw. For a more detailed post game analysis see The Wrap in the MSU spread thread. A quick diversion and then we will get started. In the preseason forecast under the topic of Chance to Dance, I showed we had an 86% C2D. That was a projection forward using the entire upcoming season. On future game spreads, I will show the current C2D ie what would the chances be if the season ended today. I will then update those chances in every spread thread as long as we remain above 50%. As of today , we currently stand at 58%. In other words , if the NCAA picked Dance teams today, we would have a 58% chance to be selected to be in March Madness. In addition, we are now showing as the team most likely to win the A-10 conf title. Of course , the computer says not to celebrate yet as it wants to see 7 more games of data before it goes shopping for a party hat. The point is not whether our chances are 58% or 59% but to track and see whether we are on target to make the Dance as the season progresses. One last thing, in 5 or 6 games I will start a new "sleepy time" feature. I think it will be something Board readers will enjoy...stay tuned. OK ...now let's do some Eville...The Aces come in with a win but are also carrying a D+ grade. As you can see by the spread, we should win this game handily...and we will as long as we take care of business. Let's look at the report card ...................SLU....................Eville..........................SLU.........................Eville .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+.......................B-.............................C............................C- FG%...............B-.......................B-..............................B-..........................B+ 3P%..............C+......................C.................................C-............................B- FT%...............C+.......................B.................................................................. Reb...............A-.........................D+.............................C+.............................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st Stls......Thatch...72nd Dou-Dou....Pickett...1st Reb...Okoro and Pickett....15th tied PPG...Perkins...95th Eville PPG....Strawbridge....48th Rebs...Kalle...87th Injury /illness report 10/21/22...Rivera (SLU)....out for the season...foot surgery We have had better report cards but this is ok for a first one. The good news is there is lots of room for improvement. Other teams have better report cards because they start the season playing a cupcake. MSU no cupcake. And while the Aces aren't a great team, they don't qualify as a cream puff. Let's dig a little deeper Keys to the game..... Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth. As for the Bills, they need to make some 3s. One of the things, I will be watching this season is the 3 vs 2 efficiency. You multiply the 3P% by 1.5 and that gives you an equivalency to the 2P%. In the last game our 2 pt% was 58% ,,,our 3p% equivalency was 48%...58% vs 48% means you should be taking more 2s. 39%+ from the arc is the breakeven point. Of course this is just 1 game but because we will be taking a large volume of 3P shots this year, it bears watching. WWN2D2W...Strawbridge is their go to guy ...Contain him and we win. Hold him to 15 pts. Kalle is there rebounder...hold him to 6 rebs. Overall, we should out rebound them by double digits. As for TOs we need to continue to protect the ball. Looked good last night ...let's do it again...The Aces need to have 4+ TOs more than the Bills. SLU target slash of 50/40/70... We needed 2 more 3PM and we would have made the target last night. ...very doable.... Finally let's use their lack of depth...our bench needs to outscore their bench by double digits. Bottom line....We need to use this game as a stepping stone ...to build on last night's game against MSU. Fine tune the shooting and close some of the gaps on defense so that we are ready for the real heat which will begin in about a week . Let's Ace the Eville. Wiz, what number rank do you show us? IE 40th in the country or what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 8 hours ago, Aquinas said: Wiz, what number rank do you show us? IE 40th in the country or what? I like to use grades because teams tend to bunch up and the differences in the rankings can be negligible especially in the beginning of the season (1st 8 games). I tend to look at rankings when a team enters the top 25. Even then most of the voters are going on hype or old time favorites or Power 5s. The first 12 are pretty much a consensus not only among voters but the computers too. I think that most voters can only follow about a dozen teams closely and then have to fill up their voting card with another 13 teams. The thing about the top 25 is as long as you can stay there you are a lock for The Dance plus it allows you to start looking at seeding positions ie the top 5 or 6 seeds. So to answer your question, I would put The Bills at 43 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 I give this post a C- for underrating the Bills an A+ team. Billiken Rich likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, willie said: I give this post a C- for underrating the Bills an A+ team. It's not that I am underrating them...You are just a little early...You are a man ahead of your time. willie likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, willie said: I give this post a C- for underrating the Bills an A+ team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: I like to use grades because teams tend to bunch up and the differences in the rankings can be negligible especially in the beginning of the season (1st 8 games). I tend to look at rankings when a team enters the top 25. Even then most of the voters are going on hype or old time favorites or Power 5s. The first 12 are pretty much a consensus not only among voters but the computers too. I think that most voters can only follow about a dozen teams closely and then have to fill up their voting card with another 13 teams. The thing about the top 25 is as long as you can stay there you are a lock for The Dance plus it allows you to start looking at seeding positions ie the top 5 or 6 seeds. So to answer your question, I would put The Bills at 43 right now. Totally agree that ranking a team after playing on game of the season is far from reflecting the true ranking of the team, that can only be ascertained after playing multiple games. That said, Team Rankings upped SLU to a 41 overall ranking after our first game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Team Rankings published its Vegas line inspired odds for the game tomorrow, we are expected to win over Evansville by 24 pts. SLU's stats are better offensively and defensively than Evansville in every category except in FTA/FGA (Evansville 0.333, SLU 0.216), and Blocks per game (Evansville 2, SLU 1). Both schools are even in Steals per game at 5. In order to keep our forward motion in the rankings we should win by around 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoon-Balls Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/8/2022 at 5:38 PM, The Wiz said: Keys to the game..... Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth. As for the Bills, they need to make some 3s. One of the things, I will be watching this season is the 3 vs 2 efficiency. You multiply the 3P% by 1.5 and that gives you an equivalency to the 2P%. In the last game our 2 pt% was 58% ,,,our 3p% equivalency was 48%...58% vs 48% means you should be taking more 2s. 39%+ from the arc is the breakeven point. Of course this is just 1 game but because we will be taking a large volume of 3P shots this year, it bears watching. Prescient Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 A win by 18 is a Wiz Win. We were the better team...before the game...and after the game....But this game had a Jekyll and Hyde flavor to it...especially when we look at TOs. In the 1st half we had 9 TOs ( F- )...in the 2nd half we had 3 TOs ( A+ )...at the end of the 1st half we are losing to a weak team...in the 2nd half we are crushing them. As the TOs go...so goes the team. I don't care how good the team is, if you are giving up TOs at a rate of 18/gm you aren't going to win many games. Fortunately, the shooting was good....better than good. What is better than good? How about 201. Majerus use to say anyone (team or individual) that can shoot 180 or better has a winning formula. You take the slash line and add it up....Tonight the Bills shot 51/ 50 / 100 =201. And to top it off it was consistent ...super consistent. 1st half 50/50/100...2nd half ..52/ 50 / 100........2P% =51%....3P%=50%....granted this was just 1 game but the consistency bodes well for the future. Let's take a closer look at what happened....Bolded print is from the original post. Eville has a decent starting 5 but therein lies their problem. They have little depth.... We wore them down. The key to the game. Strawbridge is their go to guy ...Contain him and we win. Hold him to 15 pts... He had 8...We did and we did ....excellent Kalle is there rebounder...hold him to 6 rebs. .. He had 2....again excellent. Overall, we should out rebound them by double digits. ...We out rebounded them by 16....the excellence continues SLU target slash of 50/40/70 ...Actual 51/50/ 100....super excellent .. let's use their lack of depth...our bench needs to outscore their bench by double digits. ...They had 26 pts to our 13...on the surface this looks like a fail BUT even this worked out. The had 6 players who had 24+ mins. Their top 2 had 25 pts...the next 4 had 25pts....buy holding their main players to 50 pts....there was really no one left to score for them The Aces need to have 4+ TOs more than the Bills... This was not doable...The Aces had 6 TOs. It is unrealistic to expect the Bills or any other team to have only 2 TOs in a game. When the opposing team has single digit TOs , you tip your cap and try to stay as close to 11 or less as you can. We did that Fortunately, we got the TO problem under control in the 2nd half....had we not, it could have meant a dozen more Eville pts. One last thing ....Eville 3P% in the 2nd half was ZERO...They shot a decent 43% in the 1st half ....had they done that again in the 2nd half it would have been an additional 9 pts for the Aces. Bottom line ...We did what we had to do when we had to do it...Sign of a good team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I am in total agreement with you, we are a good team. But, could we be better? We will see what happens against Memphis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.