The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2022-23

[Bills By 40]

17 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I do not like Yuri. I would have preferred if he had gone somewhere else that paid him better and we had Ramey running point for us. 

 

 

[Compton]

37 minutes ago, Old guy said:

OK Ace, I suppose we can agree that I do not like the coach, and I also do not like Yuri. I would have preferred if he had gone somewhere else that paid him better and we had Ramey running point for us. And yes, we can also agree that my understanding of basketball is not the greatest.

So you don't like Coach or Yuri, but you do like Ramey, Nesbitt, Strickland, and Lorentsson. Got it. Makes sense.

[Old guy]

I do not judge people by statistics. I think the coach is predictable and therefore can be beaten with some ease by other teams. I think Yuri is in for the money and I did not like that he chose not to play in the only NIT game we played in last year. I also did not like his tweet to the other members of the team when he thought he was going to get paid a bundle at Tennessee.

Ramey, on the other hand wanted to come to the Bills and play for us.

Yuri has not won the Cousy award yet.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

14 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I am back...And with my return, I bring good news and bad news.

First, the good news.  We come into this season with the best team since the Majerus days.  One of our best preseason outlooks to make The Dance.  Lots of scoring potential and depth...good things to have if you are going to make a run for the money. But you all already knew this.  So what's the bad news? The computer is not as optimistic as I am.  Don't get me wrong, the computer likes us too (86% chance to Dance).  It just isn't as excited as I am.  It gives The Bills a B+..again a good grade but I was hoping for at least an A- which is still very doable. The computer downgraded us a bit do to uncertainties and question marks on defense and player unknowns i.e.  performance and team gelling. The computer wants to "see the kids play"

Before we discuss the the conference report card and the season outlook, I want to digress and discuss some of the changes to D1 basketball and how it affects outcomes. The first is parity....This is a trend that has been going on for a while but has speeded up in recent years.  The elite teams are still the best but the raw numbers show they are not as good as the teams from a few years ago. The other factor is there are a lot more good teams as a result of the NIL.  How does this affect The Bills? The Bills raw numbers are better than they have been in a few years BUT other teams  have jumped up too and the Bills remain at B+ even though they are a better team.  Bottom line...There are more good teams and the elite teams have come back to the pack . Btw, this also affects the bottom feeders too.  in the last few years, D1 has added a dozen teams including 5 this year. Many of the F teams have moved up to D and many of the new teams  along with gutted NIL teams have formed a new class of bottom feeders. Point of information...the new D1 bottom feeder is ...wait for it ...Lindenwood.  ...#363....So those that thought playing Lwood was a good idea...NOT.

OK , let's get back to the forecasts....For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the SIU-C game on Dec 3).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

Let's see what the A-10 report card looks like this year. Percentages are Chance to Dance based on preseason data.

1 Day ...A-...93%

2 SLU...B+...86%

3 VCU...B+...56%

4 Dav ..B+

5 Loy...B+

6 Rich...B+

7 GM...B

8 St. B...B

9 Mass... B-

10 RI.....B-

11 Ford...C

12 GW...C

13 St. J...C

14 LaS...C-

15 Duq...C-

Note of interest....This is the first time since The Bills have been in the A10 that there have not been any Ds or Fs on the preseason report card.

So it looks like we are a 2 bid conference with a fair chance for 3 bids

The Bills Outlook

The computer is forecasting the following outlook for The Bills...30 games reg season...no UMSL or Quinn

Best case ...27-3...Dancing with a high seed

Worst case...21-9...Deciding whether to go to the NIT

Most probable...24-6...sweating bullets waiting for the Committee's decision

Toughest game of the regular season...Auburn

Red flag warning...Computer warns of a rough stretch...Nov 15-27...Best case 3-1...Worst case 0-4...Most probable...2-2...all games are a tossup

Rainbow  up ahead...Showing a possible 17 game winning streak...Nov 30 - Feb 10....with only 2 tossup games in the stretch..

If the team can gel AND play some defense for when the shooting goes cold it could be a great year.

Now if I can only get the computer onboard as it prints the following message....SHOW ME THE KIDS PLAYING

GO BILLS

 

I have great news….The Wiz is always wrong. The Bills are an “A”. Final Four.

[slufanskip]

45 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I do not judge people by statistics. I think the coach is predictable and therefore can be beaten with some ease by other teams. I think Yuri is in for the money and I did not like that he chose not to play in the only NIT game we played in last year. I also did not like his tweet to the other members of the team when he thought he was going to get paid a bundle at Tennessee.

Ramey, on the other hand wanted to come to the Bills and play for us.

Yuri has not won the Cousy award yet.

At least we know this is coming from someone who admittedly and obviously knows little about basketball 

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, Compton said:

So you don't like Coach or Yuri, but you do like Ramey, Nesbitt, Strickland, and Lorentsson. Got it. Makes sense.

The definition of MBM 

[dlarry]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I do not judge people by statistics. I think the coach is predictable and therefore can be beaten with some ease by other teams. I think Yuri is in for the money and I did not like that he chose not to play in the only NIT game we played in last year. I also did not like his tweet to the other members of the team when he thought he was going to get paid a bundle at Tennessee.

Ramey, on the other hand wanted to come to the Bills and play for us.

Yuri has not won the Cousy award yet.

If Ramey wanted to be here he would have chosen to be here 5 years ago.

I’m pretty sure we didn’t even make his final 6.

[Old guy]

To the Wiz and anyone else interested in pre season projected standings: The following are the Team Rankings before the start of the season projections for the coming season: SLU ranking 51, projected overall wins 20.8, projected overall losses 9.2, probability for an NCAA bid 47.6%, projected conference wins 12.1, projected conference losses 5.9, probability for being conference champions 17.1%.

These are their projections prior to the start of the season. In Wiz's terms, these are based upon bayesian calculations. As games are played, the standings and probabilities will vary up and down. Initially, the variability may be pronounced, as the season progresses, the variability will decrease. Towards the end of the season the variability will be very small.

I would suggest or ask other members with access to other systems preseason predictions to publish them here so we can compare what the different systems predict for SLU for the coming season. I personally prefer the Wiz's methodology to Team Rankings'.

[VeniceMenace]

9 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

That is the issue.  Perkins, Parker and Jimerson on the floor at the same time.....we better outscore the opposition because we won't be stopping them as well as our D-1st lineup would.

Pickett/Thatch can come in and stop them. There may be more parity in college basketball but there won't be in the A10 if this team stays healthy. Auto bid.

[dennis_w]

the bills are so predictable some teams can beat them with ease, so the bills didnt actually win 23 games last year? coach is so bad that he loses his best player so they must have lost most of their  games. at least that is what one could conclude reading some of these posts

[AnkielBreakers]

18 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I am back...And with my return, I bring good news and bad news.

First, the good news.  We come into this season with the best team since the Majerus days.  One of our best preseason outlooks to make The Dance.  Lots of scoring potential and depth...good things to have if you are going to make a run for the money. But you all already knew this.  So what's the bad news? The computer is not as optimistic as I am.  Don't get me wrong, the computer likes us too (86% chance to Dance).  It just isn't as excited as I am.  It gives The Bills a B+..again a good grade but I was hoping for at least an A- which is still very doable. The computer downgraded us a bit do to uncertainties and question marks on defense and player unknowns i.e.  performance and team gelling. The computer wants to "see the kids play"

Before we discuss the the conference report card and the season outlook, I want to digress and discuss some of the changes to D1 basketball and how it affects outcomes. The first is parity....This is a trend that has been going on for a while but has speeded up in recent years.  The elite teams are still the best but the raw numbers show they are not as good as the teams from a few years ago. The other factor is there are a lot more good teams as a result of the NIL.  How does this affect The Bills? The Bills raw numbers are better than they have been in a few years BUT other teams  have jumped up too and the Bills remain at B+ even though they are a better team.  Bottom line...There are more good teams and the elite teams have come back to the pack . Btw, this also affects the bottom feeders too.  in the last few years, D1 has added a dozen teams including 5 this year. Many of the F teams have moved up to D and many of the new teams  along with gutted NIL teams have formed a new class of bottom feeders. Point of information...the new D1 bottom feeder is ...wait for it ...Lindenwood.  ...#363....So those that thought playing Lwood was a good idea...NOT.

OK , let's get back to the forecasts....For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the SIU-C game on Dec 3).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

Let's see what the A-10 report card looks like this year. Percentages are Chance to Dance based on preseason data.

1 Day ...A-...93%

2 SLU...B+...86%

3 VCU...B+...56%

4 Dav ..B+

5 Loy...B+

6 Rich...B+

7 GM...B

8 St. B...B

9 Mass... B-

10 RI.....B-

11 Ford...C

12 GW...C

13 St. J...C

14 LaS...C-

15 Duq...C-

Note of interest....This is the first time since The Bills have been in the A10 that there have not been any Ds or Fs on the preseason report card.

So it looks like we are a 2 bid conference with a fair chance for 3 bids

The Bills Outlook

The computer is forecasting the following outlook for The Bills...30 games reg season...no UMSL or Quinn

Best case ...27-3...Dancing with a high seed

Worst case...21-9...Deciding whether to go to the NIT

Most probable...24-6...sweating bullets waiting for the Committee's decision

Toughest game of the regular season...Auburn

Red flag warning...Computer warns of a rough stretch...Nov 15-27...Best case 3-1...Worst case 0-4...Most probable...2-2...all games are a tossup

Rainbow  up ahead...Showing a possible 17 game winning streak...Nov 30 - Feb 10....with only 2 tossup games in the stretch..

If the team can gel AND play some defense for when the shooting goes cold it could be a great year.

Now if I can only get the computer onboard as it prints the following message....SHOW ME THE KIDS PLAYING

GO BILLS

 

It is interesting to note the parity. It is how I feel about the NCAA over the past several years. It is a reason the tournament needs to expand. Hopefully it happens soon.

[The Wiz]

34 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

It is interesting to note the parity. It is how I feel about the NCAA over the past several years. It is a reason the tournament needs to expand. Hopefully it happens soon.

Part of the reason for the parity is the relaxation of the transfer rules....players move from their "dream" school to one where they can realize their potential thus spreading out the talent circle. I agree with you ...the NCAA needs to enlarge The Dance field.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, Old guy said:

To the Wiz and anyone else interested in pre season projected standings: The following are the Team Rankings before the start of the season projections for the coming season: SLU ranking 51, projected overall wins 20.8, projected overall losses 9.2, probability for an NCAA bid 47.6%, projected conference wins 12.1, projected conference losses 5.9, probability for being conference champions 17.1%.

These are their projections prior to the start of the season. In Wiz's terms, these are based upon bayesian calculations. As games are played, the standings and probabilities will vary up and down. Initially, the variability may be pronounced, as the season progresses, the variability will decrease. Towards the end of the season the variability will be very small.

I would suggest or ask other members with access to other systems preseason predictions to publish them here so we can compare what the different systems predict for SLU for the coming season. I personally prefer the Wiz's methodology to Team Rankings'.

In the original post,  I made my forecast for overall W-L but not the A-10. 

Here it is ...A-10 outlook 

Best case....16-2

Worst case....13-5

Most probable...15-3

A10 champs....46%

[Old guy]

6 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

In the original post,  I made my forecast for overall W-L but not the A-10. 

Here it is ...A-10 outlook 

Best case....16-2

Worst case....13-5

Most probable...15-3

A10 champs....46%

Thank you very much Wiz, with a close to 50% probability to reach the A10 Championship, we are 50-50 from a NCAA tournament bid. It is interesting that your calculation for being A10 champions (46%) is close to TR's overall probability to get an NCAA Tournament bid (47.6%). I think your model is better than TR's, so this is not a bad probability to make the dance which in a way kind of agrees with TRs overall probability of making the dance. This makes two very different models coming up with a similar overall preseason prediction. So, I think this is a realistic goal to have for the current season. I think believing we are going to Sweet16, although possible if we play really well, is still very premature.

[slufanskip]

8 hours ago, Old guy said:

Thank you very much Wiz, with a close to 50% probability to reach the A10 Championship, we are 50-50 from a NCAA tournament bid. It is interesting that your calculation for being A10 champions (46%) is close to TR's overall probability to get an NCAA Tournament bid (47.6%). I think your model is better than TR's, so this is not a bad probability to make the dance which in a way kind of agrees with TRs overall probability of making the dance. This makes two very different models coming up with a similar overall preseason prediction. So, I think this is a realistic goal to have for the current season. I think believing we are going to Sweet16, although possible if we play really well, is still very premature.

Read what he wrote again. A10 champs and making the tournament aren’t the same thing. I’m also not sure if by A10 champs he means reg season or tournament, but since he listed the records I’d assume he means reg season. 
 

His original post couldn’t be clearer. 86% chance to dance. 

[TheOne]

15 hours ago, Old guy said:

I do not judge people by statistics. I think the coach is predictable and therefore can be beaten with some ease by other teams. I think Yuri is in for the money and I did not like that he chose not to play in the only NIT game we played in last year. I also did not like his tweet to the other members of the team when he thought he was going to get paid a bundle at Tennessee.

Ramey, on the other hand wanted to come to the Bills and play for us.

Yuri has not won the Cousy award yet.

This is false.

[Old guy]

2 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Read what he wrote again. A10 champs and making the tournament aren’t the same thing. I’m also not sure if by A10 champs he means reg season or tournament, but since he listed the records I’d assume he means reg season. 
 

His original post couldn’t be clearer. 86% chance to dance. 

I understand that working with probability models is not something that is easy to understand. The interesting issue for this year is that two very different models using totally different evaluation techniques come up with the conclusion that the Bills have a fairly solid 50% probability to make the dance this year. Coming this close to a similar result in two totally different ways provides what you could consider a floor or starting point agreement in the fact that we have a good chance of making the dance this year.

Try to understand what I mean to say by this. The Wiz's model estimated the most probable win loss for the whole season at 24 wins and 6 losses. This was roughly his model's mid estimate between the best possible outcome of 27 wins and 3 losses and his model's worst possible outcome of 21 wins and 9 losses. As per the Wiz's model our chances of getting a bid to the dance are POOR if our win/loss ratio comes at what he considers the most probable win loss outcome of 24-6 or the worst case scenario of 21-9. None of these scenarios have come to pass yet, we still have to play the season. However, if you read the whole set of probability figures you can understand that unless our win/loss results for the season come close to the best possible scenario, the chances are not that great of making the dance.

However the Wiz's model gives us a 46% percent probability of winning the A10 conference championship and get the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

Now, the Team Rankings model which is totally different and uses a different methodology, gives us an estimated overall win loss result of 21-9 (which is comparable to the worst case scenario of the Wiz's model) but their model gives us an overall probability of 47.6% to get a bid to the NCAA tournament.

There is a striking similarity between the Wiz's model win-loss worst case estimate and the Team Rankings overall win-loss for the season at 21-9. There also is a striking similarity between the Wiz's model 46% probability to win the A10 conference and go to the NCAA tournament, and the Team Rankings 47.6% overall probability to go to the NCAA tournament. This level of agreement between two totally different outcome prediction models gives this probability of close to 50% to go to the NCAA tournament a degree of agreement which is very uncommon, and therefore more likely to be closer to reality than what either of the models might show at this preseason time. Unfortunately the worst case win loss scenario for the Wiz's model is also virtually identical to the overall win loss figure by the Team Rankings model. So there is a degree of agreement in this estimate as well. The fact that both models can come so close to one another is extremely uncommon, since both models are completely different.

Probability is not an exact science, it is a way to approximate the likelihood of future events. You cannot read the preliminary results of any model or any number of models as being correct. However, when two or more models come close to similar estimates BEFORE the season starts, is both unusual and likely to be close to the actual results that may be obtained for the  season.

I am sorry to be so lengthy in this explanation, but you simply cannot read the results of a predictive probability model by fixing upon single findings. You must read it ALL, the  good and the bad, and then look for confirmation for these results coming from other similar models that use different methodologies. I hope you understand that it is not an easy task to develop a reliable prediction methodology, and that estimates are estimates, not reality.

[gobillsgo]

15 hours ago, dlarry said:

If Ramey wanted to be here he would have chosen to be here 5 years ago.

I’m pretty sure we didn’t even make his final 6.

100%. Ramey and his father never gave SLU the time of day the first two times around.  If he truly was interested this time, it was only because he wanted to play starter minutes at PG on a tournament level team with tons of scorers.   Cant blame the kid for doing what he thinks is best for him, but I’m MUCH happier with Yuri at the PG. 
 

[Old guy]

22 minutes ago, gobillsgo said:

100%. Ramey and his father never gave SLU the time of day the first two times around.  If he truly was interested this time, it was only because he wanted to play starter minutes at PG on a tournament level team with tons of scorers.   Cant blame the kid for doing what he thinks is best for him, but I’m MUCH happier with Yuri at the PG. 
 

So fine, you like Yuri, I do not. I would personally prefer to have Ramey in the PG slot for SLU. I am certain the majority of MBMs disagrees with me. The reality of the situation is that Yuri is our PG for this season whether I like it or not.

[slu72]

Looking at last year we should have had 26 Ws. The losses to Belmont, UAB, and Auburn were really inexcusable. The blowing of those leads has me concerned about this year. I like Travis Ford but his failure to coach the team to Ws in those 3 games still haunts me. Will this team have the killer instinct to step on the opponents throat when you got ‘em by the cojones, or will they resort to the playing not to lose style we saw last year? 

[Lord Elrond]

6 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Looking at last year we should have had 26 Ws. The losses to Belmont, UAB, and Auburn were really inexcusable. The blowing of those leads has me concerned about this year. I like Travis Ford but his failure to coach the team to Ws in those 3 games still haunts me. Will this team have the killer instinct to step on the opponents throat when you got ‘em by the cojones, or will they resort to the playing not to lose style we saw last year? 

I agree.  The best way to hold a lead is keep scoring.  Like blood in the water to a shark drives them to kill, a lead late in the game should drive a team to put them away. Don’t play not to lose.

[Old guy]

28 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

I agree.  The best way to hold a lead is keep scoring.  Like blood in the water to a shark drives them to kill, a lead late in the game should drive a team to put them away. Don’t play not to lose.

That is exactly what I do not like about the Ford/Yuri combo. Blowing the leads, stopping scoring drives and playing to run the clock instead of beating the living cr_p out of them. We can do it but instead we get Yuri dribbling and weaving around running the clock, a total waste of time and talent. Ford 's teams are often not lead to be aggressive enough to overwhelm the opposition in the second half.

[gobillsgo]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Looking at last year we should have had 26 Ws. The losses to Belmont, UAB, and Auburn were really inexcusable. The blowing of those leads has me concerned about this year. I like Travis Ford but his failure to coach the team to Ws in those 3 games still haunts me. Will this team have the killer instinct to step on the opponents throat when you got ‘em by the cojones, or will they resort to the playing not to lose style we saw last year? 

We’ve seen this as a problem for the last three years.  We have played “not to lose” rather than play to win in situations where we have a decent lead early in the game.  I can’t understand it for the life of me.  We play our best when we are running, no excuse to slow it down ever.  I’m not saying to force bad shots quickly when we have a lead, but too often with leads we’ve seen Yuri dribbling around for 25 seconds only for the possession to end in a bad forced shot or a turnover. 
 

We’ve got the offensive talent to really pour it on some teams this year, hopefully it happens. 

[wgstl]

3 hours ago, gobillsgo said:

We’ve seen this as a problem for the last three years.  We have played “not to lose” rather than play to win in situations where we have a decent lead early in the game.  I can’t understand it for the life of me.  We play our best when we are running, no excuse to slow it down ever.  I’m not saying to force bad shots quickly when we have a lead, but too often with leads we’ve seen Yuri dribbling around for 25 seconds only for the possession to end in a bad forced shot or a turnover. 
 

We’ve got the offensive talent to really pour it on some teams this year, hopefully it happens. 

Im not sure it'll ever be fixed.  at times it feels like we always did the opposite of what was needed to win.  We would slow it down when the other team couldn't stop the faster pace. 

[Old guy]

From my highly uneducated (in basketball) point of view, it seems that either the coach (Ford), or the guy leading the team's play (Yuri) should be the ones getting things to speed up instead of wasting time dribbling around.