The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2022-23

[The Wiz]

I am back...And with my return, I bring good news and bad news.

First, the good news.  We come into this season with the best team since the Majerus days.  One of our best preseason outlooks to make The Dance.  Lots of scoring potential and depth...good things to have if you are going to make a run for the money. But you all already knew this.  So what's the bad news? The computer is not as optimistic as I am.  Don't get me wrong, the computer likes us too (86% chance to Dance).  It just isn't as excited as I am.  It gives The Bills a B+..again a good grade but I was hoping for at least an A- which is still very doable. The computer downgraded us a bit do to uncertainties and question marks on defense and player unknowns i.e.  performance and team gelling. The computer wants to "see the kids play"

Before we discuss the the conference report card and the season outlook, I want to digress and discuss some of the changes to D1 basketball and how it affects outcomes. The first is parity....This is a trend that has been going on for a while but has speeded up in recent years.  The elite teams are still the best but the raw numbers show they are not as good as the teams from a few years ago. The other factor is there are a lot more good teams as a result of the NIL.  How does this affect The Bills? The Bills raw numbers are better than they have been in a few years BUT other teams  have jumped up too and the Bills remain at B+ even though they are a better team.  Bottom line...There are more good teams and the elite teams have come back to the pack . Btw, this also affects the bottom feeders too.  in the last few years, D1 has added a dozen teams including 5 this year. Many of the F teams have moved up to D and many of the new teams  along with gutted NIL teams have formed a new class of bottom feeders. Point of information...the new D1 bottom feeder is ...wait for it ...Lindenwood.  ...#363....So those that thought playing Lwood was a good idea...NOT.

OK , let's get back to the forecasts....For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the SIU-C game on Dec 3).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

Let's see what the A-10 report card looks like this year. Percentages are Chance to Dance based on preseason data.

1 Day ...A-...93%

2 SLU...B+...86%

3 VCU...B+...56%

4 Dav ..B+

5 Loy...B+

6 Rich...B+

7 GM...B

8 St. B...B

9 Mass... B-

10 RI.....B-

11 Ford...C

12 GW...C

13 St. J...C

14 LaS...C-

15 Duq...C-

Note of interest....This is the first time since The Bills have been in the A10 that there have not been any Ds or Fs on the preseason report card.

So it looks like we are a 2 bid conference with a fair chance for 3 bids

The Bills Outlook

The computer is forecasting the following outlook for The Bills...30 games reg season...no UMSL or Quinn

Best case ...27-3...Dancing with a high seed

Worst case...21-9...Deciding whether to go to the NIT

Most probable...24-6...sweating bullets waiting for the Committee's decision

Toughest game of the regular season...Auburn

Red flag warning...Computer warns of a rough stretch...Nov 15-27...Best case 3-1...Worst case 0-4...Most probable...2-2...all games are a tossup

Rainbow  up ahead...Showing a possible 17 game winning streak...Nov 30 - Feb 10....with only 2 tossup games in the stretch..

If the team can gel AND play some defense for when the shooting goes cold it could be a great year.

Now if I can only get the computer onboard as it prints the following message....SHOW ME THE KIDS PLAYING

GO BILLS

 

[slu72]

Sounds fair to me. My gut is telling me we’ve got to win it all at Barclays to get in. I worry about our ability to close out games and just know we’re gonna have games where the ball won’t go in the basket. Will our D be good enough to get us a W on those nights? 

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

11 minutes ago, slu72 said:

My gut is telling me we’ve got to win it all at Barclays to get in.

This is every year. This should be different, we need another auto bid team sooner or later and this is the one to do it.

[Taj79]

Welcome back Wiz.

If the latest Coachspeak and some casual observations are to be believed, defense appears to be a much needed focus going forward.  I thought we got better with Pickett and Thames joining Fred as big time defenders but facts will come into play.  Memphis, the Mohegan Sun, Iona and Drake all make for interesting proving games early on.  Come on Monday night!

[BillsBeliever!!!]

The 4 game D1 stretch of Memphis, Maryland, Miami/Providence, and at Auburn might be the difference between making the tournament and not. 3 “major conference” teams plus Memphis who is respected. 

Biggest worry there is that Perkins won’t be 100% for some if it all of arguably the most important 2 week stretch of the season. 

I think if we make it out of that stretch 3-1 or better we’re dancing, 2-2 makes the margin for error razor thin

[cheeseman]

1 minute ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

The 4 game D1 stretch of Memphis, Maryland, Miami/Providence, and at Auburn might be the difference between making the tournament and not. 3 “major conference” teams plus Memphis who is respected. 

Biggest worry there is that Perkins won’t be 100% for some if it all of arguably the most important 2 week stretch of the season. 

I think if we make it out of that stretch 3-1 or better we’re dancing, 2-2 makes the margin for error razor thin

2-2 is respectable against that line up.  1-3 is not.  3-1 is great and 0-4 is disaster.  The key as always is to take care of business in Conference play.

[wgstl]

5 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Welcome back Wiz.

If the latest Coachspeak and some casual observations are to be believed, defense appears to be a much needed focus going forward.  I thought we got better with Pickett and Thames joining Fred as big time defenders but facts will come into play.  Memphis, the Mohegan Sun, Iona and Drake all make for interesting proving games early on.  Come on Monday night!

we are absolutely a better defensive team than last year. 

Forrester is better than Linssen 

Pickett is better than Nesbitt

Thames is a plus

Fred should be healthier longer this season. 

Now, the question is how much does Ford play a defensive lineup.  If Ford wants to be defense first, this team can be night and day better than last year. 

[AnkielBreakers]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I am back...And with my return, I bring good news and bad news.

First, the good news.  We come into this season with the best team since the Majerus days.  One of our best preseason outlooks to make The Dance.  Lots of scoring potential and depth...good things to have if you are going to make a run for the money. But you all already knew this.  So what's the bad news? The computer is not as optimistic as I am.  Don't get me wrong, the computer likes us too (86% chance to Dance).  It just isn't as excited as I am.  It gives The Bills a B+..again a good grade but I was hoping for at least an A- which is still very doable. The computer downgraded us a bit do to uncertainties and question marks on defense and player unknowns i.e.  performance and team gelling. The computer wants to "see the kids play"

Before we discuss the the conference report card and the season outlook, I want to digress and discuss some of the changes to D1 basketball and how it affects outcomes. The first is parity....This is a trend that has been going on for a while but has speeded up in recent years.  The elite teams are still the best but the raw numbers show they are not as good as the teams from a few years ago. The other factor is there are a lot more good teams as a result of the NIL.  How does this affect The Bills? The Bills raw numbers are better than they have been in a few years BUT other teams  have jumped up too and the Bills remain at B+ even though they are a better team.  Bottom line...There are more good teams and the elite teams have come back to the pack . Btw, this also affects the bottom feeders too.  in the last few years, D1 has added a dozen teams including 5 this year. Many of the F teams have moved up to D and many of the new teams  along with gutted NIL teams have formed a new class of bottom feeders. Point of information...the new D1 bottom feeder is ...wait for it ...Lindenwood.  ...#363....So those that thought playing Lwood was a good idea...NOT.

OK , let's get back to the forecasts....For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the SIU-C game on Dec 3).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

Let's see what the A-10 report card looks like this year. Percentages are Chance to Dance based on preseason data.

1 Day ...A-...93%

2 SLU...B+...86%

3 VCU...B+...56%

4 Dav ..B+

5 Loy...B+

6 Rich...B+

7 GM...B

8 St. B...B

9 Mass... B-

10 RI.....B-

11 Ford...C

12 GW...C

13 St. J...C

14 LaS...C-

15 Duq...C-

Note of interest....This is the first time since The Bills have been in the A10 that there have not been any Ds or Fs on the preseason report card.

So it looks like we are a 2 bid conference with a fair chance for 3 bids

The Bills Outlook

The computer is forecasting the following outlook for The Bills...30 games reg season...no UMSL or Quinn

Best case ...27-3...Dancing with a high seed

Worst case...21-9...Deciding whether to go to the NIT

Most probable...24-6...sweating bullets waiting for the Committee's decision

Toughest game of the regular season...Auburn

Red flag warning...Computer warns of a rough stretch...Nov 15-27...Best case 3-1...Worst case 0-4...Most probable...2-2...all games are a tossup

Rainbow  up ahead...Showing a possible 17 game winning streak...Nov 30 - Feb 10....with only 2 tossup games in the stretch..

If the team can gel AND play some defense for when the shooting goes cold it could be a great year.

Now if I can only get the computer onboard as it prints the following message....SHOW ME THE KIDS PLAYING

GO BILLS

 

Now that Goodwin is on the Wiz’s roster, these threads are just going to be confusing at first glance.

[Old guy]

Wiz, as usual your program is as good and as adaptable to the actual game results as anything else anywhere, better than most. We will see what actually happens. I am honestly not as optimistic as you are but this lack of optimisms is not due to lack of talent in the team, we have loads of it.

[HoosierPal]

8 minutes ago, wgstl said:

we are absolutely a better defensive team than last year. 

Forrester is better than Linssen 

Pickett is better than Nesbitt

Thames is a plus

Fred should be healthier longer this season. 

Now, the question is how much does Ford play a defensive lineup.  If Ford wants to be defense first, this team can be night and day better than last year. 

That is the issue.  Perkins, Parker and Jimerson on the floor at the same time.....we better outscore the opposition because we won't be stopping them as well as our D-1st lineup would.

[wgstl]

14 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

That is the issue.  Perkins, Parker and Jimerson on the floor at the same time.....we better outscore the opposition because we won't be stopping them as well as our D-1st lineup would.

Im not sure we see them all on the floor at the same time - on purpose - unless we need quick points. I bet at most its 2 of 3, with just 1 of the 3 late with a lead

[Bills By 40]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I am honestly not optimistic 

We know. 

[Cowboy II]

-thanks Wiz, love your stuff

 

[BIG BILL FAN]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Im not sure we see them all on the floor at the same time - on purpose - unless we need quick points. I bet at most its 2 of 3, with just 1 of the 3 late with a lead

you're probably right, but I'll take the offensive players over the defensive players every day in today's game....you look at the teams with the best offensive efficiency and you'll see a list of the teams with the best record...

[Bay Area Billiken]

The A10 is traditionally a multi-NCAA Tourney bid league, and should definitely get a bare minimum of 2 NCAA Tourney teams.  Depending upon how others perform, the A10 could get more than 2 bids.

Dayton and SLU are the national consensus to be #1 and #2 in the A10.  Obviously, SLU has to produce on the court.  But the nonconference schedule is rugged, is clearly designed to prepare this team and to play the toughest schedule possible for the NCAA Tourney Committee decision makers to see in March.  There may be some losses in that upcoming schedule, more than we want to see.  But there's no need to fret like in the past because the nonconference schedule is that much tougher. 

In the words of Ms. Blue on the old Jack Carney Show on KMOX:  "All is well, all is well."  All is going to be well.  This is the most talented team 1-13 of my 5+ decades following the program.  The Billikens are going to be A-OK.

[Old guy]

51 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

We know. 

I said I am honestly not as optimistic as you are but this lack of optimisms is not due to lack of talent in the team, we have loads of it." If you are going to quote me quote what I said not what you want me to say.

[Bay Area Billiken]

I'm reading a lot of concern re SLU's defense, and it's probably valid.

But like my well known SLU LAW Real Estate professor used to say, "Don't let the taxes wag the real estate dog," the similar applies here:  Don't let the defense wag the dog.

At SLU we're used to having less talented clubs on offense that had to rely on defense to survive.  But this is still basketball, meaning making baskets, scoring the ball.  This team can score, will outscore opponents.  

Deep six the negative karma.  Negativism breeds more negativism.  This team is going to be just fine, A-OK, a team that is going to make all of us very proud.

[Old guy]

Thirty years ago, with a younger Majerus as a HC, this team would win the NCAA championship. Today with Ford and Yuri in, I do not think we are headed for the NCAA championship. Ford will play emphasizing defense, using his usual 8 person squad and letting Yuri lead the team. The game play will become predictable and we will not win games we should have as it has happened in prior seasons. Deja vu all over again. As long as we continue playing like we have in the last few years, and letting talented players sit instead of playing them, I just hope we make it to the Dance this year.

[ACE]

5 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Thirty years ago, with a younger Majerus as a HC, this team would win the NCAA championship. Today with Ford and Yuri in, I do not think we are headed for the NCAA championship. Ford will play emphasizing defense, using his usual 8 person squad and letting Yuri lead the team. The game play will become predictable and we will not win games we should have as it has happened in prior seasons. Deja vu all over again. As long as we continue playing like we have in the last few years, and letting talented players sit instead of playing them, I just hope we make it to the Dance this year.

Just curious, which "talented players" were sitting last year?

[Old guy]

2 minutes ago, ACE said:

Just curious, which "talented players" were sitting last year?

I think Nesbitt should have played a lot more, and certainly Strickland played very little. Lorentssen was capable of shooting the rim from the center of the court and saw no attempt to use this single talent. Instead we saw Yuri dribbling around the hoop and charging into the trees when the time went short.

[BIG BILL FAN]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I said I am honestly not as optimistic as you are but this lack of optimisms is not due to lack of talent in the team, we have loads of it." If you are going to quote me quote what I said not what you want me to say.

yes, old guy, we know you don't like the coach....

[Old guy]

49 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

yes, old guy, we know you don't like the coach....

And you won't either once he pulls another mediocre season with a team full of talent.

[ACE]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I think Nesbitt should have played a lot more, and certainly Strickland played very little. Lorentssen was capable of shooting the rim from the center of the court and saw no attempt to use this single talent. Instead we saw Yuri dribbling around the hoop and charging into the trees when the time went short.

Nesbitt played 26 mpg - that's plenty. Strickland and Lorentsenn... ah, ok.

Wow, terrible usage by Ford of Yuri... HE ONLY LED THE COUNTRY IN ASSISTS after our best scorer was lost for the season due to injury. 

On a completely unrelated topic.... I need to remember my own advice - do not feed the troll.

[Old guy]

OK Ace, I suppose we can agree that I do not like the coach, and I also do not like Yuri. I would have preferred if he had gone somewhere else that paid him better and we had Ramey running point for us. And yes, we can also agree that my understanding of basketball is not the greatest.

[Bills By 40]

12 minutes ago, Old guy said:

my understanding of basketball is not the greatest.