Sweet 16...Buy Or Sell?

[Brighton]

Sell. We do this to ourselves every year before the season begins only to be disappointed before Thanksgiving. 

[thetorch]

Buy this is our best chance at sweet 16 berth since Mitchell's Sr year.

 

 

[slu72]

52 minutes ago, thetorch said:

Buy this is our best chance at sweet 16 berth since Mitchell's Sr year.

 

 

Would have made it if Willie had returned. The following two dances we might have if Rick had survived. Under Crews not a chance. 

[thetorch]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Would have made it if Willie had returned. The following two dances we might have if Rick had survived. Under Crews not a chance. 

We had a horrible draw Mitchell's Sr year.  We were a nightmare matchup for most everyone but we ran into that Oregon buzzsaw.

Following year we were maybe a better team but Crews had completely lost the team by tourney time and their was no gas left in the tank.

[3star_recruit]

There's a lot of luck involved in making the sweet 16.  At Utah, Majerus teams failed to make it in his previous four appearances.

[JettFlight5]

19 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:

Not an overly strong analysis in my opinion. Theoretically you would need to look at the talent of those rosters heading into the season. A lot of talented rosters that ended up around .500 in conference and as bubble teams. Not taking a shot since I don’t overly care, but a lot of underachieving teams at Oklahoma State that one might not see doing this lazy analysis of how his teams performed by their seed. I think you can still be excited about the prospects of this season and the chances of this group making a Sweet 16 though, but that analysis was a waste of time and not indicative of how Ford often underachieved at Oklahoma State which is why he was fired.

Fair enough. I liked the tournament game look but there is something to be said with getting different seeds and different matchups based on RS play and whether the team underachieves, overachieves, or does what they are "supposed" to do. 

[slu72]

2 hours ago, JettFlight5 said:

Fair enough. I liked the tournament game look but there is something to be said with getting different seeds and different matchups based on RS play and whether the team underachieves, overachieves, or does what they are "supposed" to do. 

Not to mention what section you’re seeded in. We got jobbed in 13-14 by going to CA and then ran up against a very hot Oregon team. Columbus was decent. Lot of SLU folks went and OSU fans hate anything Michigan. Had a lot of Buckeyes come up and tell me hope you guys kick Izzo’s ass. So we had the crowd with and We almost did it. 
One thought on some of the mids magical runs to the final game. As I recall Loyola was like a 12 seed but, if I’m right, they had what might have been considered the easiest field, if there is such a thing in a one and done tournament. 
I figure we’ve got to be on a roll in mid Feb and just carry that through. We have the horses. Can Travis ride them to the Sweet 16? I surely hope so and will start praying in October. 

[3star_recruit]

53 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Not to mention what section you’re seeded in. We got jobbed in 13-14 by going to CA and then ran up against a very hot Oregon team. Columbus was decent. Lot of SLU folks went and OSU fans hate anything Michigan. Had a lot of Buckeyes come up and tell me hope you guys kick Izzo’s ass. So we had the crowd with and We almost did it. 
One thought on some of the mids magical runs to the final game. As I recall Loyola was like a 12 seed but, if I’m right, they had what might have been considered the easiest field, if there is such a thing in a one and done tournament. 
I figure we’ve got to be on a roll in mid Feb and just carry that through. We have the horses. Can Travis ride them to the Sweet 16? I surely hope so and will start praying in October. 

It seems like most of the mid-major runs come from teams seeded 11 or lower.  If you're seeded in in the 8/9 range, you have to knock off a number 1 seed in round 2.  A lot of mid-major teams seeed 6 or higher are only that good on paper.  They rarely do any damage in the tournament.

[BigMouthBilliken]

Sell, only because I’m a pessimist. But I like to think of myself as a realist

[willie]

23 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

It seems like most of the mid-major runs come from teams seeded 11 or lower.  If you're seeded in in the 8/9 range, you have to knock off a number 1 seed in round 2.  A lot of mid-major teams seeed 6 or higher are only that good on paper.  They rarely do any damage in the tournament.

12 seeds win almost every year. 

[Old guy]

4 hours ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

Sell, only because I’m a pessimist. But I like to think of myself as a realist

Reality is a mix of good and bad. It is premature to be convinced we will go to sweet 16.

[Aquinas]

To be favored to make the sweet 16, a team needs to be in the top 16 teams being seeded. In other words in the top 4 seeds. To go to the sweet sixteen, obviously you have to win your first game.

The odds of winning the first round game improve significantly with a 3 seed or better. Thats because the auto bids of the 14 seeds and higher are conference winners from generally weak conferences. 

I took the brackets from last year with the overall ranking of the average seeds facing seeds 1-9.

1 seeds faced teams averaging 180 

2 faced 146

3 faced 127

4 faced 83

5 faced 59

6 faced 42

7 faced 38

8 faced 32

I through 3 seeds should win there first round games, though almost every year a 3 gets upset and rarely a 2.

There isn't much difference between the strength of the first round team faced by a 6, 7 or 8.

So in my view, if a coach fails to win round one with a 3 seed or better. He deserves criticism.

 

 

[JMM28]

17 hours ago, slu72 said:

and We almost did it. 

Draymond Green should have been called for a flagrant foul against Cody Ellis. Hindsight shows that it was absolutely intentional as Draymond continued to do things like that throughout his NBA career as well. 

[brianstl]

1 hour ago, JMM28 said:

Draymond Green should have been called for a flagrant foul against Cody Ellis. Hindsight shows that it was absolutely intentional as Draymond continued to do things like that throughout his NBA career as well. 

That was the team, just had the worst possible second round match up.  

[AnkielBreakers]

The nice thing about this year is that we have a team with Ray Giacolleti’s offensive finger print, and now we have a guy who helped us have that Dog defense of 2018. If those two things can mix, it could be pretty special.

[slufanskip]

I'm buying Sweet 16. In fact I'm loading up on that stock

[Compton]

We should have a pretty clear idea of our Sweet Sixteenability by the afternoon of Sunday, November 20th:

Oct. 24 vs. UMSL
Nov. 7 vs. Murray State
Nov. 12 vs. Evansville
Nov. 15 vs. Memphis
Nov. 19 vs. Maryland (Uncasville, Conn.)
Nov. 20 vs. Providence or Miami (Uncasville, Conn.)
Nov 23 vs. Paul Quinn (NAIA)

Nov. 27 at Auburn
Nov. 30 vs. Tennessee State
Dec. 3 vs. S. Illinois
Dec. 6 at Iona
Dec. 10 vs. Boise State
Dec. 17 vs. Drake
Dec. 21 vs. SIUE

[HoosierPal]

14 minutes ago, Compton said:

We should have a pretty clear idea of our Sweet Sixteenability by the afternoon of Sunday, November 20th:

Oct. 24 vs. UMSL
Nov. 7 vs. Murray State
Nov. 12 vs. Evansville
Nov. 15 vs. Memphis
Nov. 19 vs. Maryland (Uncasville, Conn.)
Nov. 20 vs. Providence or Miami (Uncasville, Conn.)
Nov 23 vs. Paul Quinn (NAIA)

Nov. 27 at Auburn
Nov. 30 vs. Tennessee State
Dec. 3 vs. S. Illinois
Dec. 6 at Iona
Dec. 10 vs. Boise State
Dec. 17 vs. Drake
Dec. 21 vs. SIUE

Interesting.  What is your "clear idea" criteria?  5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3?  UMSL doesn't count as an exhibition.

[wgstl]

29 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Interesting.  What is your "clear idea" criteria?  5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3?  UMSL doesn't count as an exhibition.

He means we'll have played against Memphis (top 30 team) and a neutral game against Maryland and Miami.   we can tell - to a degree - if this team is for real based on how we play against them. 

[Compton]

34 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Interesting.  What is your "clear idea" criteria?  5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3?  UMSL doesn't count as an exhibition.

3-2. To be sweet sixteenable we have to be competitive against tournament teams. Murray State, Memphis, Maryland, and Providence/Miami all danced last year except Maryland in a down year. While winning just one of those would show somewhat that we can run with them, I think the three losses would negate that benefit (despite the "it's who you beat" arithmetic of the NET). So yeah, crush Evansville and split the games against the "tourney" teams to show we stand should-to-shoulder with them. 

 

[wgstl]

46 minutes ago, Compton said:

 

Nov. 20 vs. Providence or Miami (Uncasville, Conn.)

Nov 23 vs. Paul Quinn (NAIA)

Nov. 27 at Auburn
 

This is something I didn't notice at first.  I absolutely love the timing and opponents for this.  Play a very good Miami or Providence team then practically get a full week off.  But instead of being off for 7 days, we can play a gloried shoot around mid week and use Paul Quinn as practice for Auburn. 

[almaman]

53 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Interesting.  What is your "clear idea" criteria?  5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3?  UMSL doesn't count as an exhibition.

first 2; clearly a possibility, last 2 maybe a long year.

[HoosierPal]

59 minutes ago, Compton said:

3-2. To be sweet sixteenable we have to be competitive against tournament teams. Murray State, Memphis, Maryland, and Providence/Miami all danced last year except Maryland in a down year. While winning just one of those would show somewhat that we can run with them, I think the three losses would negate that benefit (despite the "it's who you beat" arithmetic of the NET). So yeah, crush Evansville and split the games against the "tourney" teams to show we stand should-to-shoulder with them. 

 

I kind of agree with you, and figured that would be what you picked.  I don't think Murray State will be that good this season.  They lost their top 4 scorers, including KJ Williams, and have a Preseason T-Rank of 204.  Yeah, it is hard using these preseason rankings, but that is all we have right now. 

So that for me leaves Memphis, Maryland, Providence/Miami.  Really, really don't want to get two L's there, but they will tough games.  Again, TRank has Miami at 20, Memphis 32, Maryland 51, and Providence 67.  Bills are at 41.  For me, we need to beat Memphis at home, and then see what happens in the short tourney.

[mrjoelabs]

I am still buying this.  The only thing that can mess it up is injuries, or TRAVIS.  Travis is the big x-factor...

[BIG BILL FAN]

On 8/29/2022 at 2:13 PM, Compton said:

3-2. To be sweet sixteenable we have to be competitive against tournament teams. Murray State, Memphis, Maryland, and Providence/Miami all danced last year except Maryland in a down year. While winning just one of those would show somewhat that we can run with them, I think the three losses would negate that benefit (despite the "it's who you beat" arithmetic of the NET). So yeah, crush Evansville and split the games against the "tourney" teams to show we stand should-to-shoulder with them. 

 

My expectations are a lot higher than yours based on our talent.