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2 hours ago, willie said:

Major Recession? That's pretty much an outlier statement. For every Ray Dalio I give you a Tom Lee. 

Willie, that is the beauty of market trading, you get to choose what information you consider valid and then make your own choices. You keep track of your funds by measuring them against the index you choose.

The last round table where Tom Lee was present was 7/18/22. At that time the market was starting to rise from a bottom and a projection of good gains was reasonable. I follow the SPY, this kept on going up until 8/16/22 when it turned down at a time when the price was close (but still below) the 200 day MA, it has kept going down since.

I personally do not  like Dalio, but he has information that is not available elsewhere and Bridgewater is in good shape. FSrat is not a fund, it is an advisory service, and Tom Lee is big in cryptos. Dalio used to be big in China but he is pulling out.

Bit Coin reached a high in November 2021 at $65,000 per coin, it is currently down to $20,180 per coin, cryptos are less than stellar investments since their peak last year. Bit coin has lost about 70% of its value. Thinking about this after a 70% loss since November Crypto might be a possible buy. But I am not in the business of trying to catch a falling knife.

The interesting thing is that Lee and Dalio are straight opposites in their predictions. Dalio talks about 25% loss, Lee about 20% gain. So, to each his own I suppose.

One last thing I have to say, you do not make money in the market by following consensus, you make money in the market by staying away from the consensus.

 

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13 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Willie, that is the beauty of market trading, you get to choose what information you consider valid and then make your own choices. You keep track of your funds by measuring them against the index you choose.

The last round table where Tom Lee was present was 7/18/22. At that time the market was starting to rise from a bottom and a projection of good gains was reasonable. I follow the SPY, this kept on going up until 8/16/22 when it turned down at a time when the price was close (but still below) the 200 day MA, it has kept going down since.

I personally do not  like Dalio, but he has information that is not available elsewhere and Bridgewater is in good shape. FSrat is not a fund, it is an advisory service, and Tom Lee is big in cryptos. Dalio used to be big in China but he is pulling out.

Bit Coin reached a high in November 2021 at $65,000 per coin, it is currently down to $20,180 per coin, cryptos are less than stellar investments since their peak last year. Bit coin has lost about 70% of its value. Thinking about this after a 70% loss since November Crypto might be a possible buy. But I am not in the business of trying to catch a falling knife.

The interesting thing is that Lee and Dalio are straight opposites in their predictions. Dalio talks about 25% loss, Lee about 20% gain. So, to each his own I suppose.

One last thing I have to say, you do not make money in the market by following consensus, you make money in the market by staying away from the consensus.

 

Old guy you are talking the market. Markets go up and markets go down. No one is right all the time. You said major recession. I don’t  know of any  mainline economist who is calling for a MAJOR recession. Many are saying slowdown yes but recession no. My guy Barry Bannister says no. If we do have one it will be very mild by historical standards. 

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1 hour ago, dennis_w said:

Juco is one step above rec plex ball, he is better off with the Billikens 

Wow that is really off base.

As a team manager for a JUCO team in college I assure I saw firsthand every day that JUCO is hardly a step above rec plex ball.  3 players I worked with went on to D-1 schools, several more went D-2 and NAIA.  6 played pro at some level.  

MO as well has multiple strong JUCO programs that SLU has used to recruit for their teams.  Where would we be without players like Charlie Newberry, Donnie Dobbs, David Robinson, Justin Love, or Mo Jeffers?  JUCO took a backseat for a few years due to the explosion of post HS Prep basketball factories but covid and the transfer portal has shifted a lot of talent back to JUCOs.  JUCO basketball is now stronger than ever.

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https://www.instagram.com/p/Ch3BEP6LZqk/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChsHOxlrXUu/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

Some good SLU posts from Daniel Rivera. In the second caption he also states that he is playing this year.

***Trigger warning for him using “#UniversityofSaintLouis”***

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22 minutes ago, BuiltFordBills said:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Ch3BEP6LZqk/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChsHOxlrXUu/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

Some good SLU posts from Daniel Rivera. In the second caption he also states that he is playing this year.

***Trigger warning for him using “#UniversityofSaintLouis”***

Honestly I can live with that before Team Blue. He also spelled out Saint so I'll give him a pass on the rest, maybe he's dyslexic.

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1 hour ago, willie said:

Old guy you are talking the market. Markets go up and markets go down. No one is right all the time. You said major recession. I don’t  know of any  mainline economist who is calling for a MAJOR recession. Many are saying slowdown yes but recession no. My guy Barry Bannister says no. If we do have one it will be very mild by historical standards. 

Nouriel Roubini is a pretty pessimistic guy but I don't know that you could call him out of the mainstream. 

 

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27 minutes ago, thetorch said:

Wow that is really off base.

As a team manager for a JUCO team in college I assure I saw firsthand every day that JUCO is hardly a step above rec plex ball.  3 players I worked with went on to D-1 schools, several more went D-2 and NAIA.  6 played pro at some level.  

MO as well has multiple strong JUCO programs that SLU has used to recruit for their teams.  Where would we be without players like Charlie Newberry, Donnie Dobbs, David Robinson, Justin Love, or Mo Jeffers?  JUCO took a backseat for a few years due to the explosion of post HS Prep basketball factories but covid and the transfer portal has shifted a lot of talent back to JUCOs.  JUCO basketball is now stronger than ever.

One could be excused for comparing the organization level of JUCO ball to that of one step above Rec Ball. However I agree with on the talent level

 

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Willie, one of my close friends used to be the head of economics at Holy Cross for many years. He is always late in terms of market action, behind the ball, not ahead of the ball.

This is a recent SPY chart showing the price going back down before crossing the 200 day MA band. It is not going up whatever your economists say. I do not know how you are positioned but I am positioned for a recession at this time. I agree the market is not about to crash soon, the question is how much lower (or higher) will it go before it does?

image.png.fbac282831327f3cf1c9b99b70b90bd1.png

The tan bands are my trading bands. And I agree I am not right all the time but I am right enough. I just want you to realize that whenever the price is going up or going down during any one of these trends, there ample ways to make money. As of now the market is in a trend down.

For the long term or longer term draw a box going horizontal from the top price value and the bottom price value. Vertical lines go from the beginning of the horizontal lines until the price crosses the line and stays above or  below the line. As long as the price stays within in the box we stay in an unstable situation. In recessions the index price remains within the box and does not cross the 200 day MA for more than a few days. I believe we are in a recession, the price line is far from crossing the box top line. For a crash you need the price line crossing the lower line and staying below it.

If you want technical analysis theory about boxes and recessions try Chirs Ciovacco in you tube.

I do not think you trade actively, I do.

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1 hour ago, thetorch said:

Wow that is really off base.

As a team manager for a JUCO team in college I assure I saw firsthand every day that JUCO is hardly a step above rec plex ball.  3 players I worked with went on to D-1 schools, several more went D-2 and NAIA.  6 played pro at some level.  

MO as well has multiple strong JUCO programs that SLU has used to recruit for their teams.  Where would we be without players like Charlie Newberry, Donnie Dobbs, David Robinson, Justin Love, or Mo Jeffers?  JUCO took a backseat for a few years due to the explosion of post HS Prep basketball factories but covid and the transfer portal has shifted a lot of talent back to JUCOs.  JUCO basketball is now stronger than ever.

I wasn’t referring to talent, I was referring to style of play and learning to play in a d-1 system more will be learned practicing with the Billikens than playing Juco. Most Juco players take quite awhile to adjust. Just my observation not trying to pick a fight

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1 hour ago, BuiltFordBills said:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Ch3BEP6LZqk/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChsHOxlrXUu/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

Some good SLU posts from Daniel Rivera. In the second caption he also states that he is playing this year.

***Trigger warning for him using “#UniversityofSaintLouis”***

Mr. Rivera, you are a very impressive young man.  You are humble, respectful, and courageous.  Your new team has developed a cohesiveness where you will fit in perfectly.  Welcome to #TeamBlue

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8 hours ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

Could possibly have the ability to dunk over a trash can. 

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16 hours ago, thetorch said:

Wow that is really off base.

As a team manager for a JUCO team in college I assure I saw firsthand every day that JUCO is hardly a step above rec plex ball.  3 players I worked with went on to D-1 schools, several more went D-2 and NAIA.  6 played pro at some level.  

MO as well has multiple strong JUCO programs that SLU has used to recruit for their teams.  Where would we be without players like Charlie Newberry, Donnie Dobbs, David Robinson, Justin Love, or Mo Jeffers?  JUCO took a backseat for a few years due to the explosion of post HS Prep basketball factories but covid and the transfer portal has shifted a lot of talent back to JUCOs.  JUCO basketball is now stronger than ever.

actually it's not off base....with so many now choosing the Prep School route, the quality of Juco has taken a massive hit...

additionally, the talent pool has shrunk dramatically....almost everyone qualifies to play in the NCAA, as the dumbing down of American education continues.....

Keep in mind that the NCAA loosened initial eligibility restrictions for student-athletes who intend to play D1 or D2 sports for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 academic years. Student-athletes graduating high school in 2021 or 2022 who intend to compete at a D1 or D2 college are no longer required to take the ACT or SAT. They are also allowed to use pass/fail grades for core courses. Your amateurism status is determined based on the answers to your amateurism certificate. In extreme cases, the NCAA will investigate your amateurism status.

 

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38 minutes ago, bauman said:

I kinda like our two JUCO guys, P & P.  I see 30 pts per from them, combined.

i like our juco guys too, my post was in ressponse to the question would rivera be better off to play at juco or sit on the bench with billikens, my opinion was sit with the billikens for a whole lot of reasons, competion in practice, trainers, dietitians facilities etc, it was never to be taken that i didnt think talented players came from juco. juco games i watched, i have watched many look about as organized as rec plex, little passing, no defense, and so on. welcome daniel, coach ford wants you so i am all in

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46 minutes ago, dennis_w said:

i like our juco guys too, my post was in ressponse to the question would rivera be better off to play at juco or sit on the bench with billikens, my opinion was sit with the billikens for a whole lot of reasons, competion in practice, trainers, dietitians facilities etc, it was never to be taken that i didnt think talented players came from juco. juco games i watched, i have watched many look about as organized as rec plex, little passing, no defense, and so on. welcome daniel, coach ford wants you so i am all in

I think that players who project to play only sparingly are always better off getting minutes at juco or prep school.  I understand that I am in the minority in that opinion.

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4 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I think that players who project to play only sparingly are always better off getting minutes at juco or prep school.  I understand that I am in the minority in that opinion.

other than playing time juco has little to offer in comparison to being at slu. most jucos have mediocre to poor facilities, dorms and food service. i get that guys want to play but i think when an offer to play d-1 ball comes it would be hard to pass up

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25 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I think that players who project to play only sparingly are always better off getting minutes at juco or prep school.  I understand that I am in the minority in that opinion.

I agree and especially with guys like Rivera.  That said, I completely understand why both Rivera and SLU wanted Rivera on campus now.

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2 hours ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

actually it's not off base....with so many now choosing the Prep School route, the quality of Juco has taken a massive hit...

additionally, the talent pool has shrunk dramatically....almost everyone qualifies to play in the NCAA, as the dumbing down of American education continues.....

Keep in mind that the NCAA loosened initial eligibility restrictions for student-athletes who intend to play D1 or D2 sports for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 academic years. Student-athletes graduating high school in 2021 or 2022 who intend to compete at a D1 or D2 college are no longer required to take the ACT or SAT. They are also allowed to use pass/fail grades for core courses. Your amateurism status is determined based on the answers to your amateurism certificate. In extreme cases, the NCAA will investigate your amateurism status.

 

I think until all the bonus year players cycle out, there are going to more than the normal amount of players that could help out at a program like SLU.  A bunch of kids aren't getting the offers they expect coming out of prep or high school because bonus year players are filling up rosters.  They end up going JUCO for a year or two to improve their stock.

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

I think that players who project to play only sparingly are always better off getting minutes at juco or prep school.  I understand that I am in the minority in that opinion.

I agree. I don’t know where his minutes come from. Who sits?  As he doesn’t appear to have a perimeter game, does he take minutes away from Okoro? Forrester? Cisse? Pickett? Thatch? Hargrove?….all guys who get involved on the paint. I am going to assume Coach had a sincere talk about playing time with him before he committed. 

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1 hour ago, dennis_w said:

other than playing time juco has little to offer in comparison to being at slu. most jucos have mediocre to poor facilities, dorms and food service. i get that guys want to play but i think when an offer to play d-1 ball comes it would be hard to pass up

2 years ago i would have disagreed.   mainly because i think playing time is a major influence and if we pass on this young man now in hopes he develops more with more minutes in jucoland he comes in with more confidence and a place on the roster with minutes immediately.   but now with the NIL b.s. who knows what might happen.   maybe he just tears juco to pieces and now all at once D1 thirsty for upperclassmen players that are no doubt playing ready, we might not have a chance to sign.   

taking him now at least gets him in the program and then whatever happens happens.   if he wants to come to prove himself or just to get on the the slu roster, take him now.   

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3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

2 years ago i would have disagreed.   mainly because i think playing time is a major influence and if we pass on this young man now in hopes he develops more with more minutes in jucoland he comes in with more confidence and a place on the roster with minutes immediately.   but now with the NIL b.s. who knows what might happen.   maybe he just tears juco to pieces and now all at once D1 thirsty for upperclassmen players that are no doubt playing ready, we might not have a chance to sign.   

taking him now at least gets him in the program and then whatever happens happens.   if he wants to come to prove himself or just to get on the the slu roster, take him now.   

he has to know the situation with limited playing time available, so it seems he is good with coming in and developing his game and learning the system....i think he will be a better player next year than if he had gone the juco route....and honestly SLU will have a better idea if he is someone they want to have continue in the program...

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