Popular Post The Wiz Posted April 6, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted April 6, 2022 First , let's start with the A-10 report card....comparing the preseason forecast to the end of the season. Remember, these grades are based on how The Bills (and the other A-10 teams) compare to the other 357 teams. The preseason data, grades and quotes are from my November preseason forecast. ......................End of season............preseason.............difference The Bills.............B+................................B+............................unch Day.....................B+................................B+.............................unch Dav.....................B+................................B.................................+1 Rich.....................B+................................B+...............................unch St. B....................B+.................................A................................-2 VCU....................B+...................................B+..............................unch GM......................B-..................................B-...............................unch RI.........................B-..................................B..................................-1 St. J.....................C+.................................C+...............................unch UMass.................C+.................................B-................................-1 Ford......................C..................................D-.................................+4 LaS........................C-.................................C...................................-1 Duq........................D+.................................C+.................................-3 GW.........................D+..................................D+.................................unch Overall the grades were within 1 step of the preseason 79% of the time including 7 exact calls. ...86% of the time within 2 steps. Season's biggest disappointment....Duq and St. B.............biggest surprise ...Fordham. What this all means is that most of the teams did what they were projected to do. Bolded statements from Nov 7 , 2021 post Toughest games.....Memphis and St. B away...easiest games...C Ark and EIU...most important game ...St. B at home Our chances at this point (preseason) at B+ are 54% to get an NCAA bid. That 54% chance held up for most of the season till the final A10 tourney loss. For the 2nd year in a row... 1 more tourney win (getting to the championship game) would have given us a good chance for a bid. Close but no cigar...again. Now let's take a look at the team report card....since there is no upcoming game let's make the opposing team Kansas and see how we stack up against the National Champs. Also to see where we can improve for next year. ...................SLU.....................Kansas..........................SLU....................Kansas .................................OFF......................................................DEF............. PPG...............A-......................A.............................B-.............................B- FG%...............B+.....................A.............................B-.............................A- 3P%..............A-.......................B+...........................B-..............................A FT%...............A.......................C................................................ Reb...............A........................A-............................A-.............................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off.....none.....Def......none..................... Down....Off....3P%.....Def......3P%......... Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st... unch ...7.9/gm...National D1 Asst Champ...Congrats Stls......Collins....51st....dn Dou-Dou....Collins...95th...dn......Okoro...60th... up FG%....Okoro....43rd...up Reb...Okoro...68th...up Off Reb...Okoro...74th...up FTA/FGA....Linssen...47th...up Actually, on offense we compare pretty favorably. The one weakness is 2Pt shooting where we come in at a shaky C- ...we need to boost our 2P% about 2%...finish around the basket ...make some mid range jumpers. We are down about 2.2% from last year, so it is doable. On the defensive side things are above average but they need to be better to play in the Dance....Get those 2 and 3P shooting grades up to an A- to be competitive. Keys to next year... It is way to early to make forecasts for next year with so many spots still left to fill on the Bills and other teams. But here is what the numbers show...get the 2P% up and we should make the Dance next year...If we want to win some games at the Dance we will need to get our defensive grades up..2 & 3P opponent shooting. Bottom line..... The biggest issue this year was consistency. When you look at our grades /numbers, they aren't bad... in fact on the surface, it looks like we underperformed... But what actually happened was the inconsistent data turned the stats into a roller coaster ride that in the end looked smooth but was not. Let's say you have 4 games and you are shooting 37% from the arc ( which we were) . But the games went like this...47%, 27%, 47%, 27%...average was 37%...you might go 2-2....but if you shoot 37% for all 4 games you have a chance to win them all. This was just a hypothetical example of what went on not just with 3s but a bunch of stats...TOs, rebs, 2P shooting and even flow of the game ...i.e. getting a lead and then letting it slip away. If we are consistent next year ...we win more games...For a team that has been on the cusp for the last 2 years another win here or there can be the difference maker. Watch this space... 1st week of Nov...for a winning forecast. ' Zink, Bay Area Billiken, Adman and 14 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 -as always, thanks Wiz -I calculate our 2pt fg% as 49.8, increasing that 2pp gets us less than one more made basket per game, I think we need more than that -do you have a grade for our turnover rate or turnovers per game? I think that is another area that needs improvement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 33 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -as always, thanks Wiz -I calculate our 2pt fg% as 49.8, increasing that 2pp gets us less than one more made basket per game, I think we need more than that -do you have a grade for our turnover rate or turnovers per game? I think that is another area that needs improvement Just looking at the season stats as a whole and not adding it up on a game by game basis, my best estimate is we had 2449 possessions this year. Of those, 450 ended up in turnovers for a rate of 18.4%. So, we averaged 70 possessions per game and had 12.9 turnovers/game. The Wiz usually projects that if we keep our turnovers at a max of 11, which leaves a turnover rate of 15.7%, then we have a pretty good chance of winning. So, I would grade turnover rate this way: Less than 15.7% - A 15.8 - 17.1% - B 17.2 - 18.5% - C 18.6 - 19.9% - D 20% and up - F Using that scale, we grade at a C minus in turnover rate. A good measuring stick is once you hit 14 turnovers in a regulation game, your grade that day will be an F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -as always, thanks Wiz -I calculate our 2pt fg% as 49.8, increasing that 2pp gets us less than one more made basket per game, I think we need more than that -do you have a grade for our turnover rate or turnovers per game? I think that is another area that needs improvement If you take those 35 extra FGs and add them to our losing games (12) it works out to about 3 extra FGs / gm...3 extra 2pointers would have yielded wins against UAB, Belmont, Auburn, Richmond, Dayton, UMass and St. B. I think that is a difference maker for our team....Put another way , if we had shot 2s like we did last year we win all these games I just listed. It just goes to show you how close we were this year. As for TOs, I have us listed as C-/D+ on TOs....I think, I am in agreement with @billikenbill even though we are calculating it differently. I use TO/gm as the measuring stick. We came in this year with a weak 13.1 /game...To get to A- territory we need to be at 11.1. If the number 11 looks familiar , it means you have been reading my spread threads...especially WWN2D2W...where I usually put the target TOs at 11...it is what winning teams do. Can you win with more than 11 TOs? Yes, but you are making it much harder on yourself. The bottom line is we had a number of games where we had less than than 11(including a series of 8s). So again it comes down to consistency. Good consistency =wins. billikenbill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 4/6/2022 at 10:18 AM, The Wiz said: If you take those 35 extra FGs and add them to our losing games (12) it works out to about 3 extra FGs / gm...3 extra 2pointers would have yielded wins against UAB, Belmont, Auburn, Richmond, Dayton, UMass and St. B. I think that is a difference maker for our team....Put another way , if we had shot 2s like we did last year we win all these games I just listed. It just goes to show you how close we were this year. As for TOs, I have us listed as C-/D+ on TOs....I think, I am in agreement with @billikenbill even though we are calculating it differently. I use TO/gm as the measuring stick. We came in this year with a weak 13.1 /game...To get to A- territory we need to be at 11.1. If the number 11 looks familiar , it means you have been reading my spread threads...especially WWN2D2W...where I usually put the target TOs at 11...it is what winning teams do. Can you win with more than 11 TOs? Yes, but you are making it much harder on yourself. The bottom line is we had a number of games where we had less than than 11(including a series of 8s). So again it comes down to consistency. Good consistency =wins. -looking at our stats on college sports madness and our #27 rank prompted me to look again at The Wiz's report card for last season -consistency, reduce the TO's and play better defense all with a healthy squad will make us a Bunch of Happy Billikens, especially if we are shooting more 3's and consistently making at the same rate as last season -see you here in a few weeks, Wiz The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Remember, this is a report from the end of last season. The team has changed a lot since that time. I expect the early report for this year will be different than the one at the end of last season. Our chances may be better this year, and I surely hope our preseason report shows an improvement to A- from last year's B+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 10 hours ago, Old guy said: Remember, this is a report from the end of last season. The team has changed a lot since that time. I expect the early report for this year will be different than the one at the end of last season. Our chances may be better this year, and I surely hope our preseason report shows an improvement to A- from last year's B+. If ever Earl Austin isn't available... thetorch likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 We’re loaded this year- no one will be ready for us - deep and experienced - that is the mantra - let the season begin. Young Charles and Billiken Rich like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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