The Bills over Dav by 1

[The Wiz]

A satisfying win over St. B....if you want to see how we did it , check out the St. B  spread thread post game analysis. What was gratifying to me besides the win and the close call (within 1 pt)  is the "experts" had St. B by 1.5 pts.  Today the experts are even more confident and are picking Dav by 3.5 pts. Let's hope I am right.

A10 Tourney Tourney Watch

2 down 2 to go

With the VCU loss , the chances for 2 bids for the A10 drops to 50-50....In addition if Rich beats Day we are a 1 bid conference.   The projection is,  we will face Day in the final game in a another very close game and be the winner by a hair with Day having a 50% chance for an at large bid.  If Dav wins (shudder) today then  Dayton beats them by a narrow margin  and Dav becomes the 50-50 team.  The good news is that we are the favorite to win.  Why is that? Because the computer thinks we are the best team now and have been for most of the season. (since the 8th game).  For those that like excitement this will be a white knuckle weekend.

Chance 2 (as in 2 wins) Dance

The Bills....55%...dn 1

Day...........50%....dn 1

VCU...........48%....dn 6

Dav ............42%...up 2

Just win, baby...

 

Now onto the game at hand...Dav. We owe them big time as they blew us out in an outlier game. We shot poorly against a so-so defense and they were great especially from the arc with a jaw dropping 58% ...very high even for a good shooting team...that was a bad combo of events.  Last game with them was an anomaly.....we are playing  better D and shooting better now. Pay back time.  It will not be a cake walk though. This will be a very close game between 2 evenly matched teams.  A game that could be decided by a FT or TO or a bad call.   Dav comes to the game with not only the best offense in the A-10 but one of the best offenses ITN.  But the Bills aren't chopped liver ...our offense is only slightly behind Dav  and our defense and rebounding is  better.  How much better?...Enough to even up the game. Like St. B they have little or no depth...if the game is close , they will go with 5 players...When any subs come in that's when we need to jump on them.  We need to lead or stay close in the 1st half.

Let's look at the report card and see what we are dealing with.

 

...................SLU.....................Dav..........................SLU.........................Dav

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-.......................B+.............................B-............................B+

FG%...............B+.....................A+ 17th ITN...............B...............................B

3P%..............A-......................A+  8th ITN...............B+.............................C

FT%...............A.......................B+ ..................................................................

Reb...............A.........................D+..............................A-.............................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

Since last Dav game

................SLU................................................................Dav

UP....Off.....3P%.....Def........PPG.......................Off.......3P%...Reb........Def....PPG...FG%...3P%

Down....Off...PPG...FT%.....Def...none..............OFF.....FG%...FT%.......Def.....Reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch ..If he averages 7.6 assists /gm  the rest of the season he wins the Asst crown for D1. (currently he has 7.9)

Stls......Collins....39th....dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...84th...dn......Okoro...67th... up

FG%....Okoro....38th...up

Reb...Okoro...75th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...85th...up

FTA/FGA....Linssen...39th...dn

Dav

FG%...Brajkovic...46th...up

FT%...Loyer....6th...dn

 

Injury/ Illness

None

Keys to the game.....Will our defense be able to slow down their high powered offense? The answer is yes...if we exploit their weakness. Their weak spot is 3P defense...  We will have open looks...we need to take AND make 3s.  Loyer and Jones are their 3P and FT guys. Don't foul them when they are shooting 3s....  Key matchup...Okoro vs Brajkovic...Okoro leads in Reb, FT%, FG%,  and Blks....Braj leads in PPG, 3P% & stls and assists....edge to Okoro...when you add in Linssen...advantage SLU

 

WWN2D2W....Bills slash...47/38/80 ....Dav will TO the ball 11 times,  we need to match them on TOs...out reb them by 3+ (no second chances)...limit Loyer and Jones to five  3PM.  Their top 4 guys score 80% of the pts...Hold their top 4 scorers to 47 pts.  Keep them under 70pts....Dav slash ..under 40/ under 40/ under 15 FTA

Bottom line...If we play D especially 3P Def  like we did against St. B we win.  Beat them on the boards and make some of those open 3s...and don't forget to make the 2 footers too.  If we play Billiken ball, we can tame the Wildcats.

Go Bills

 

[Taj79]

I will say this —— Okoro is a man on a mission.  Just look at his reaction to Lofton yesterday.  If he was yelling on the bench as DOC reported during the VCU game, it was a take-charge moment and not adverse negative.  He has been a beast here in DC.  
 

I still see Luka as the Vienna Pilsbury Doughboy.  No matter his POY status.  If Franco comes out and plays like he has the last four, I like it.  I think if we can get one more offensive option going —— Nesbit or Hargrove —— we win easily.  But we need more as it stands.  
 

Today might be “tired legs day.”  The Bonnie game was really the ‘big one” here so it seemed.  We wanted them bad —— from the team to the fans.  Sitting here in the hotel lobby —- it is so much smug fun to watch the Bonnie and VCU fans check out.  That is usually us.

 

All these games are winnable.  But all will be nailbiters.  I’m resigned to that 

[Minerva N. Owl]

Massey says Billikens by 2 ... 72-70 ... 55% reliability

https://masseyratings.com/cb2022/6841

 

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, Minerva N. Owl said:

Massey says Billikens by 2 ... 72-70 ... 55% reliability

https://masseyratings.com/cb2022/6841

 

Well at least I am not alone today in picking The Bills. 

[juniorbill76]

21 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I will say this —— Okoro is a man on a mission.  Just look at his reaction to Lofton yesterday.  If he was yelling on the bench as DOC reported during the VCU game, it was a take-charge moment and not adverse negative.  He has been a beast here in DC.  
 

I still see Luka as the Vienna Pilsbury Doughboy.  No matter his POY status.  If Franco comes out and plays like he has the last four, I like it.  I think if we can get one more offensive option going —— Nesbit or Hargrove —— we win easily.  But we need more as it stands.  
 

Today might be “tired legs day.”  The Bonnie game was really the ‘big one” here so it seemed.  We wanted them bad —— from the team to the fans.  Sitting here in the hotel lobby —- it is so much smug fun to watch the Bonnie and VCU fans check out.  That is usually us.

 

All these games are winnable.  But all will be nailbiters.  I’m resigned to that 

DJ should have pretty fresh legs today.

[CBFan]

27 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I will say this —— Okoro is a man on a mission.  Just look at his reaction to Lofton yesterday.  If he was yelling on the bench as DOC reported during the VCU game, it was a take-charge moment and not adverse negative.  He has been a beast here in DC.  
 

I still see Luka as the Vienna Pilsbury Doughboy.  No matter his POY status.  If Franco comes out and plays like he has the last four, I like it.  I think if we can get one more offensive option going —— Nesbit or Hargrove —— we win easily.  But we need more as it stands.  
 

Today might be “tired legs day.”  The Bonnie game was really the ‘big one” here so it seemed.  We wanted them bad —— from the team to the fans.  Sitting here in the hotel lobby —- it is so much smug fun to watch the Bonnie and VCU fans check out.  That is usually us.

 

All these games are winnable.  But all will be nailbiters.  I’m resigned to that 

I feel really good hearing about fans of both of those schools checking out.

Most important was St. B fans because SLU advanced but VCU fans and Lester Q the troll really warms my heart.

Hopefully we won’t see either team in the NIT because SLU wins the tournament.

[wgstl]

pretty simple, we dont win unless someone not named Jimerson hits a few 3's

[dlarry]

These guys are going to be fired up today. 
I think the embarrassment from the last meeting may help out today.

The way they felt after that game will win out over tired legs. 
I just hope they don’t come out too fired up.

[BilliKat]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Well at least I am not alone today in picking The Bills. 

You have never been alone in the regard… 

right here, wiz. 

[majerus mojo]

Wiz haters in shambles after our W today 

[Old guy]

Team Rankings had Davidson as favorite to win by 3.4 pts with 2 stars of confidence. This is the expectation of the Vegas Line. They distributed a report early this morning giving SLU a 50.9% probability to win over Davidson, take your pick if you follow them. As far as I am concerned, this will be a very close game with possibly a small advantage favoring SLU, still a very close game that either team can win.

[ARon]

The model can't account for Ford's defensive schema having no answer for a team where everyone can shoot from outside.

[Old guy]

We lost and that is a fact. No need to go scapegoat hunting, let's see if there is an opening at the NIT for us this year.

[billikenbill]

6 hours ago, majerus mojo said:

Wiz haters in shambles after our W today 

This post did not age well.

 

Blue font: The Wiz’s computer may be in need of a software upgrade. 

[The Wiz]

Tough loss...And again Dav crushes us with 3P shooting ...62% in the 1st half and we are not talking about 3 out of 5 ...they took 17 shots.  Last time we played them they shot 58% from the arc   (24 shots).  Those are not normal numbers ...teams don't regularly average 60% from 3.  You may ask... didn't I see the report card that said they are an A+ team that is 8th ITN from the arc...well yeah...I wrote the report card... The point is they got  to be A+ and 8th ITN (now 7th)...by shooting 38.8% over 32 games (including today)which is outstanding....So what would 58% or 62% be....not normal.

Here is an interesting chart I created...

This chart shows 3P % vs 2P% by half for the 2 SLU games.

Mar 11..... Dav 2 & 3 pt shooting (% of total shooting pts...not shooting %)

....................2P..........3P......

1st half........37%.......63%

2nd half.......80%....20%

Feb 19

1st half.........12%......88%

2nd half.......57%.....43%

So the pattern is to run up a lead in the 1st half on 3s and then shoot 2s in the 2nd half trying to maintain the lead and eat up the clock.

In today's game Dav had 8 TOs...  last time 11...when Dav loses they turn the ball over  as in the VCU and SF games...15 and 17 times or they get beat in the paint such as RI & Day games.  When those things happen it disrupts their shooting.

Note to 22/23 Bills ..To beat Dav...drive down their shooting numbers by pressuring them  and scoring in the paint....Pressure and disrupt.

Bottom line...when a team is shooting 60% from the arc ...nobody is going to beat them...Pressure and disrupt them.

[BilliesBy40]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Tough loss...And again Dav crushes us with 3P shooting ...62% in the 1st half and we are not talking about 3 out of 5 ...they took 17 shots.  Last time we played them they shot 58% from the arc   (24 shots).  Those are not normal numbers ...teams don't regularly average 60% from 3.  You may ask... didn't I see the report card that said they are an A+ team that is 8th ITN from the arc...well yeah...I wrote the report card... The point is they got  to be A+ and 8th ITN (now 7th)...by shooting 38.8% over 32 games (including today)which is outstanding....So what would 58% or 62% be....not normal.

Here is an interesting chart I created...

This chart shows 3P % vs 2P% by half for the 2 SLU games.

Mar 11..... Dav 2 & 3 pt shooting (% of total shooting pts...not shooting %)

....................2P..........3P......

1st half........37%.......63%

2nd half.......80%....20%

Feb 19

1st half.........12%......88%

2nd half.......57%.....43%

So the pattern is to run up a lead in the 1st half on 3s and then shoot 2s in the 2nd half trying to maintain the lead and eat up the clock.

In today's game Dav had 8 TOs...  last time 11...when Dav loses they turn the ball over  as in the VCU and SF games...15 and 17 times or they get beat in the paint such as RI & Day games.  When those things happen it disrupts their shooting.

Note to 22/23 Bills ..To beat Dav...drive down their shooting numbers by pressuring them  and scoring in the paint....Pressure and disrupt.

Bottom line...when a team is shooting 60% from the arc ...nobody is going to beat them...Pressure and disrupt them.

Please provide an update on our chance to dance. Thanks

[almaman]

27 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Please provide an update on our chance to dance. Thanks

cold FiveThirtyEght like takedown

[billikenbill]

58 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Please provide an update on our chance to dance. Thanks

My computer says 0%.

[Old guy]

Lets deal with this chance to dance issue because most do not understand how to read what this figure says. A chance to dance calculation is a statement of probability to achieve a goal stretched over multiple games (until the final game is reached). When you say the C2C is 55% to reach the goal, you are simultaneously saying that there is 45% probability that the goal will not be reached. In this case, we lost today's game, which was not an unexpected outcome. Winning does not always go to the better team, and the teams with better stats do not always win the game.

I agree this was a disappointing game.

[BilliesBy40]

7 hours ago, Old guy said:

Lets deal with this chance to dance issue because most do not understand how to read what this figure says. A chance to dance calculation is a statement of probability to achieve a goal stretched over multiple games (until the final game is reached). When you say the C2C is 55% to reach the goal, you are simultaneously saying that there is 45% probability that the goal will not be reached. In this case, we lost today's game, which was not an unexpected outcome. Winning does not always go to the better team, and the teams with better stats do not always win the game.

I agree this was a disappointing game.

The entire reason some of us called out the C2D numbers as absurd is because we understand how it works. If losing yesterday took our C2D to 0% (it did), then we did not have a 55% C2D before yesterday’s game.

[SLU_Nick]

2 hours ago, BilliesBy40 said:

The entire reason some of us called out the C2D numbers as absurd is because we understand how it works. If losing yesterday took our C2D to 0% (it did), then we did not have a 55% C2D before yesterday’s game.

The computer had us favored yesterday so if the computer had a 60% chance of victory yesterday then 40% chance the odds to dance go to zero after a loss.  Then us losing in the championship would have left maybe 5%ish to get a committee bailout.  
 

The ~60% figure is the one I think you have issue with, which I do too.  Davidson is an awful match up for us unless they are going to brick 3s but the computer doesn’t do the eye test. 
 

Im not sure why people are trying to bully TheWiz.  He does all of this for free and it’s very interesting and enjoyable to read. 

[RamJAMTIME]

11 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

Im not sure why people are trying to bully TheWiz.  He does all of this for free and it’s very interesting and enjoyable to read. 

Gotta find something to complain about, always.

[Old guy]

10 minutes ago, RamJAMTIME said:

Gotta find something to complain about, always.

Besides the need to complain and find scapegoats, what is going on is threefold, they know very little about probability and statistics, they seem to have a very rigid approach to probability estimates, and they think they know much more than they really know. The underlying emotion powering their complaints is, I think, a feeling of having been let down. I will say that I have been there and done that in the distant past.

[Schasz]

I thinks it's fun to look at what the Wiz does before the games. I'm glad I don't bet on the predictions as my bank account might be suffering a bit. Let's face it, computers don't win basketball games...players do. Davidson was a terrible match up for the Bills in both games. They have better players and have a Hall of Fame HC.

[CenHudDude]

47 minutes ago, Schasz said:

I thinks it's fun to look at what the Wiz does before the games. I'm glad I don't bet on the predictions as my bank account might be suffering a bit. Let's face it, computers don't win basketball games...players do. Davidson was a terrible match up for the Bills in both games. They have better players and have a Hall of Fame HC.

I agree Davidson is a terrible matchup.  What other A-10 teams, if any, do you think have better players than SLU?