The Bills over VCU by 4

[The Wiz]

The Double Bye Chart

Step 1...Rich & Bonnies lose...Complete

Step 2...The Bills beat RI...Complete 

Step 3 ...Bonnies lose to Rich

Step 4 ...The Bills beat VCU

Step 5... Double Bye

Step 3 coming up...btw step 3 ...ESPN2

 

Chance to Dance

VCU....57%...up 14 pts

Day......54%...up 6 pts

SLU.....48%....dn 2 pts

Dav......44%...up 4 pts

 As you can see by the Dou Bye chart...time is running out...which is weighing on the Bills chances.   We are favored in this game and the Bonnie game could go either way depending on whether Osinniyi plays and if so, will he be at 100%. ...If we get the combo...Bonnie loss and we win.. our Chance to Dance will take a pop up...one for beating VCU and another for making the double bye.  Finally , if the A-10 wants 2 bids... 2 of these teams need to make it to the final game and then it will still be iffy for the 2nd team.

Next  up VCU...The theme for this post will be...What happens when an unstoppable force (SLU's offense) meets an immovable object(VCU defense)  SLU's offense is almost straight As...VCU has one of the top defenses ITN. The computer says the unstoppable force (infinite energy) is able to move the immovable object (finite mass) just enough to give The Bills a victory... 

Let's look at the report card...

 

 

...................SLU.....................VCU.........................SLU.........................VCU

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-......................D-.............................C+............................A+....15th ITN

FG%...............B+.....................B...............................B-..............................A+.. 12th ITN

3P%..............A-.......................B-..............................B-..............................A+ ...2nd ITN

FT%...............A.......................D....................................................................

Reb...............A.......................D-...............................A-...............................C

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off.....PPG...Reb........Def.....none

Down....Off...none.........Def...FG%

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch ...If Collins averages 7.8 assts (currently 8.03 over 30 games) the rest of the season he will win the D1 Asst crown.

Stls......Collins....30th....up

Dou-Dou....Collins...71st...dn

FG%..........Okoro....44th....dn

Tot Rebs...Okoro...85th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...98th...dn

FTA/FGA....Linssen...28th...up

Injury/ Illness... Tsohonis...3-1-22... Concussion...Questionable for Sat game

Word on the street is Williams(VCU) has a bad ankle but will play Sat....watch his 3pt shot...If he is missing .... the ankle  is bothering him.

Keys to the Game...TOs...VCU is 4th ITN (A+) in opp TOs...  one of the paradoxes is VCU also is very TO prone (F)..so the mantra is protect the ball and pressure VCU .   Another strange twist is,  it is not just the number of TOs...In the VCU/ Bonnie game,  St. B had 16 TOs vs VCU's 20  ...a lot of TOs for St. B but less than VCU....but it didn't work out because VCU turned those 16 TOs into 24 pts vs St. B getting only 12 pts on the 20 TOs. ...keep the TO number down........It will be difficult to get good shots especially 3s...shot selection will be important. The good news is we should be able to out rebound them.

WWN2D2W...47/37/77...make some shots especially the layups and dunks. ...score at least 70pts...11 TOs and pressure them into 15....keep their top 3 scorers to less than 40.... Rebs  6+

Bottom line... Just win one for the Seniors...btw, did I mention protect and pressure?

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU is 4-11 all-time vs. VCU, 3-4 in STL. It is time for these trends to change. This is a huge game for both teams.

[Bills By 40]

The last time SLU hosted VCU: 

 

[Taj79]

VCU to me remains offensively challenged.  They need live ball turnovers to turn that into breakaway steals and layups because otherwise, they are offensively challenged.  Vince WIliams is their shooter.  Which is funny considering how poor he was as a freshman.  He's raised his 3PT% to a respectable 38% this year.  Baldwin is even better at 44% but Ace has only attempted 61 threes compared to Williams 137.  Jayden Nunn and Marcus Tsohonis each have launched over 70 threes as well.  It woudl be better to let KeShawn Curry do the distance shooting. 

VCU runs through these guards.  Hasan Ward has not developed as well as I think he should have but remains a very decent shot blocker.  Rhoades however has been playing Stockard, DeLoach and Brown-Jones more so than Ward it seems as of late.  None of these are go-to guys as all average 6 ppg or under and the guards are all pushing 10 ppg.  But no one stands out; Williams and Baldwin are the keys and Curry us neutralized if he has to shoot from distance.  

HAVOC is rarely on display with this group, not to the extent it has been in the past.  I think it lives more on reputation now more than on actuality.  VCU will try to speed you up and get live ball turnovers but the trapping and pressing of old just isn't there.  Curry, Nunn, Baldwin and DeLoach are superior athletes ---- I just don't think they are true basketball players.  VCU will still come with the backside trap if the ballhandler turns his back to the center of the court as he proceeds up the sidelines.  This is where HAVOC can still be seen in spurts.  I think the 4 point home spread is understandable.  

VCU is on an eight game win streak.  Who'd they beat?  Duquesne.  Rhode Island.  Mason.  Fordham.  Richmond at home.  Mason.  Umass.  And the Bonnies at home without Osunniyi.  Once again, you get a nice line up of dregs in a row and the record will certainly get inflated.  

Going to be interesting and really intense ---- depending on tonight's Bona/Richmond result.

[NoCoBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU is 4-11 all-time vs. VCU, 3-4 in STL. It is time for these trends to change. This is a huge game for both teams.

Of course that includes the three years of Crews rosters, our record is more like 4-7 with a competent team (built by either Majerus or Ford)

[NoCoBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

The last time SLU hosted VCU: 

 

I miss these days before I had joined the board, where I was able to enjoy the team without high expectations. I’m too far gone now.

This game also makes me miss Javonte even more. He was like 9/9 in the first half and I just couldn’t believe how good of a scorer he was.

[Bay Area Billiken]

37 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

Of course that includes the three years of Crews rosters, our record is more like 4-7 with a competent team (built by either Majerus or Ford)

The Sons of Majerus were 3-1 vs. VCU in ‘13 and ‘14. The earlier Majerus group went 0-2 vs. VCU in the ‘10 CBI Championship Series. The other SLU Win was the more recent 80-62 home drubbing in ‘20. 

[Schasz]

44 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

I miss these days before I had joined the board, where I was able to enjoy the team without high expectations. I’m too far gone now.

This game also makes me miss Javonte even more. He was like 9/9 in the first half and I just couldn’t believe how good of a scorer he was.

looking forward to JP coming back next season. Not certain what his options would be if he doesn't because the NBA surely would not invest a draft pick without knowing he was completely healthy. 

[CBFan]

57 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

I miss these days before I had joined the board, where I was able to enjoy the team without high expectations. I’m too far gone now.

This game also makes me miss Javonte even more. He was like 9/9 in the first half and I just couldn’t believe how good of a scorer he was.

That was a special team at the end of the season that endured the loss of Jimerson and Thatch found themselves and won the last 5.

That team defended and could score and rebound.

I always believed that team would win the A10 tournament because the team was dialed in but COVID ended everything.

[HoosierPal]

There is a wrong perception that VCU is not a good offensive team.  Are the Bills a good offensive team?  The answer to the second question is directly related to the first statement.

For the A10 Conference season, VCU is shooting 47.6% from the field (they LEAD the conference) and are second to Dayton in 3FG at 38.7%.

For the A10 Conference season , our Bills are 46.3% from the field and 37.7% from the arc.  Not all that much difference.

Defense is another issue.  VCU is first Opponent 3 point % holding their league opponents to 28%, and second in FG defense at 40%.

Our Bills are 33.6% defending the arc and 42% FG defense. 

 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

There is a wrong perception that VCU is not a good offensive team.  Are the Bills a good offensive team?  The answer to the second question is directly related to the first statement.

For the A10 Conference season, VCU is shooting 47.6% from the field (they LEAD the conference) and are second to Dayton in 3FG at 38.7%.

For the A10 Conference season , our Bills are 46.3% from the field and 37.7% from the arc.  Not all that much difference.

Defense is another issue.  VCU is first Opponent 3 point % holding their league opponents to 28%, and second in FG defense at 40%.

Our Bills are 33.6% defending the arc and 42% FG defense. 

 

I have made a copy of the report card from the original post...the difference on the one that follows is I have added the numbers I use ...some are close to yours,  others differ.  These numbers come from Sports Direct Inc. one of the world's largest sports data services. The thing I like about it  is that it is real time. ..as soon as the game is complete the data is entered.  After the report card , you will see a description of who Sports Direct is.  As far as good offense or bad offense...I will stick with my original statements that SLU has the better offense ...FT, Reb , PPG and even slightly better shooting ...and that VCU has the better defense. The numbers are good enough for a Bills win by 4.

 

...................SLU....................................VCU......................................SLU..........................................VCU

..............................................OFF..................................................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-  77.7/gm......................D-...66.2/gm...........................C+,,,68/gm............................A+...60.5/gm....15th ITN

FG%...............B+...46.3%.....................B.......45.8%...............................B-...42%................................A+...38.6%......12th ITN

3P%..............A- .. 37.1%.......................B-.......34.8%.............................B-...32.2%..............................A+...26.4% ...2nd ITN

FT%...............A......76.3%......................D........69.1%......................................................................................

Reb...............A.......38.8/gm...................D-.....32.8/gm..........................A-...28.8/gm...........................C...31.7/gm

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

 

SportsDirect Inc. has been the leader in delivering high quality sports content and cross-platform solutions to major online, broadcast and print publishers and media organizations around the world. We provide scores and statistics for more than 2,000 teams, 15,000 players and 40,000 games with features including Boxscores, Matchups, Play-by-Play, Injuries, Odds and more.

[HoosierPal]

42 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I have made a copy of the report card from the original post...the difference on the one that follows is I have added the numbers I use ...some are close to yours,  others differ.  These numbers come from Sports Direct Inc. one of the world's largest sports data services. The thing I like about it  is that it is real time. ..as soon as the game is complete the data is entered.  After the report card , you will see a description of who Sports Direct is.  As far as good offense or bad offense...I will stick with my original statements that SLU has the better offense ...FT, Reb , PPG and even slightly better shooting ...and that VCU has the better defense. The numbers are good enough for a Bills win by 4.

 

...................SLU....................................VCU......................................SLU..........................................VCU

..............................................OFF..................................................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-  77.7/gm......................D-...66.2/gm...........................C+,,,68/gm............................A+...60.5/gm....15th ITN

FG%...............B+...46.3%.....................B.......45.8%...............................B-...42%................................A+...38.6%......12th ITN

3P%..............A- .. 37.1%.......................B-.......34.8%.............................B-...32.2%..............................A+...26.4% ...2nd ITN

FT%...............A......76.3%......................D........69.1%......................................................................................

Reb...............A.......38.8/gm...................D-.....32.8/gm..........................A-...28.8/gm...........................C...31.7/gm

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

 

SportsDirect Inc. has been the leader in delivering high quality sports content and cross-platform solutions to major online, broadcast and print publishers and media organizations around the world. We provide scores and statistics for more than 2,000 teams, 15,000 players and 40,000 games with features including Boxscores, Matchups, Play-by-Play, Injuries, Odds and more.

My numbers are from the Atlantic 10 website, basketball page, statistics , conference games only. They should be correct.
At this point of the season I tend to look at this last 2/3 of the season. VCU adding Ballwin has been a lift for them. He missed their first 8 games. 

[The Wiz]

55 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

My numbers are from the Atlantic 10 website, basketball page, statistics , conference games only. They should be correct.
At this point of the season I tend to look at this last 2/3 of the season. VCU adding Ballwin has been a lift for them. He missed their first 8 games. 

A-10 uses Sports Direct Inc...So out of curiosity , I went to the A-10 site and my numbers matchup with theirs.  I use the whole season not just A-10 games.

As for looking at the last 2/3 of the season,  that will make a difference.  My model has a trend line which tracks the last 10 games ,  blends them into the overall season and then weights the trend line a bit heavier.

[HoosierPal]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

A-10 uses Sports Direct Inc...So out of curiosity , I went to the A-10 site and my numbers matchup with theirs.  I use the whole season not just A-10 games.

As for looking at the last 2/3 of the season,  that will make a difference.  My model has a trend line which tracks the last 10 games ,  blends them into the overall season and then weights the trend line a bit heavier.

Good.  And that is the difference. 

[Schasz]

Bills will be favored at home tomorrow. They won't have the double bye to play for so it's only a pride game. 

[Taj79]

Dayton hosts Davidson (+3.5) at 12:30 on the USA Network tomorrow.  If Davidson loses thatgame, and VCU beats us, VCU is regular season champs as they have the tie breaker by splitting with Dayton.  Davidson will only play Dayton once.

[HoosierPal]

48 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Bills will be favored at home tomorrow. They won't have the double bye to play for so it's only a pride game. 

Agree 100%.  Let's just hoop.  Play free and easy and have some fun.  Start Courtney, Jones and Linssen plus Thatch, because he has already graduated, and any other you want.  Heck, let Perkins walk out on the court for a ceremonial tip.

Ford's Billikens are 4-1 in Senior Night games.  We got this.

[Schasz]

15 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Agree 100%.  Let's just hoop.  Play free and easy and have some fun.  Start Courtney, Jones and Linssen plus Thatch, because he has already graduated, and any other you want.  Heck, let Perkins walk out on the court for a ceremonial tip.

Ford's Billikens are 4-1 in Senior Night games.  We got this.

How about Strickland getting some minutes other than garbage time!

[billiken_roy]

11 hours ago, Schasz said:

Bills will be favored at home tomorrow. They won't have the double bye to play for so it's only a pride game. 

it is not only a pride game.    imo every win helps with seeding and opportunities.  every loss is an excuse for the committee to not give us the opportunity we will deserve.   we need to win and win big and make a statement to everyone.  

[dennis_w]

12 hours ago, Schasz said:

How about Strickland getting some minutes other than garbage time!

Strickland is obviously an impressive athlete, that said ford has watched him in practice for 2 years and has not deemed him worthy of minutes over others. Who would you sit so strickland can play?

[JettFlight5]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

it is not only a pride game.    imo every win helps with seeding and opportunities.  every loss is an excuse for the committee to not give us the opportunity we will deserve.   we need to win and win big and make a statement to everyone.  

The committee won’t be involved with SLU this year. Win in DC or hang ‘‘em up.

[billiken_roy]

7 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

The committee won’t be involved with SLU this year. Win in DC or hang ‘‘em up.

giving the opportunity doesnt end with just getting in.   what if we win the tourney next week?   wouldnt a win vs vcu look better for seedings?  wouldnt the fact we have a 6 game winning streak look better for seedings?   dont get hung up on "just getting in".   we are going to win it all next week.  so lets set up that opportunit to get the best seed possible to put us in the best position to get to the final four.  

[JettFlight5]

7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

giving the opportunity doesnt end with just getting in.   what if we win the tourney next week?   wouldnt a win vs vcu look better for seedings?  wouldnt the fact we have a 6 game winning streak look better for seedings?   dont get hung up on "just getting in".   we are going to win it all next week.  so lets set up that opportunit to get the best seed possible to put us in the best position to get to the final four.  

I will buy this argument.

[The Wiz]

Why this game still matters....

Most models weight the most recent games heavier than earlier games in the  season.  The Committee looks at the final 10 games as one of the more important criteria...What have you done lately.

This game matters if we go 3-1 in the Tourney.  If we go 4-0..we win and are in...if we go 2-1  we are out....at 3-1 we go to the Committee. The Committee will then look at our last 6 games...we are currently 3-2  coming into this game with VCU...If we win , we have a quality win and finish 7-3  and are taken under consideration by the Committee.  The Committee generally looks at teams that finish with 7+ wins.  If we lose today and and go 3-1 in the Tourney , we  finish 6-4... and we are out.

So does this game matter?....Should we give it 100%?...the answer is yes and yes.

Go Bills

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

23 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Why this game still matters....

Most models weight the most recent games heavier than earlier games in the  season.  The Committee looks at the final 10 games as one of the more important criteria...What have you done lately.

This game matters if we go 3-1 in the Tourney.  If we go 4-0..we win and are in...if we go 2-1  we are out....at 3-1 we go to the Committee. The Committee will then look at our last 6 games...we are currently 3-2  coming into this game with VCU...If we win , we have a quality win and finish 7-3  and are taken under consideration by the Committee.  The Committee generally looks at teams that finish with 7+ wins.  If we lose today and and go 3-1 in the Tourney , we  finish 6-4... and we are out.

So does this game matter?....Should we give it 100%?...the answer is yes and yes.

Go Bills

Wiz, you always have the best, most level-headed takes and, to quote Letterkenny's Squirrely Dan, that's what I appreciates about yous.