The Bills over Rich by 1

[The Wiz]

Chance 2 Dance...

The Bills ....57%...dn 2 pts

Day.............54%....dn 3 pts

VCU............47%.....up 1 pt

No other A-10 teams were 40% or above.

So how do we Dance. We need to get the double bye first...How?...We win the next 3 games and we finish at least 4th.  We are favored in the Richmond game. If we win it ...we will be favored in the last 2 games.  What about St. B?...VCU is favored to beat them.  What if they beat VCU?  Then we still win....assuming we win out, VCU then would have 2 losses...tie with us and we win on the tie breaker.  What about the A-10 tourney?  I don't want to get too far ahead of myself ...Let's just say we would be in the driver's seat at that point.

Speaking of getting ahead of ourselves ...let's focus on the game at hand Richmond. In order to do this , I want to drop back for a moment to St. J. First this was a nice win. I know some posters  think we should have done better against the Hawks but they were a decent team..C+ ..above average. We did what we needed to do.  Richmond is a better team  (B) but not way better. They are stronger on 2P  and FT shooting....but overall weaker than St. J on defense. Their big weapon on D is steals led by Gilyard who is #1 ITN in steals.  The Spiders are also a weak team on the boards.

Let's look at the report card....

 

 

...................SLU.....................Rich.........................SLU.........................Rich

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A.......................B-.............................C+............................C-

FG%...............B+.....................B-.............................B..............................D+

3P%..............A.......................C...............................B-.............................D-

FT%...............A.......................C................................................................

Reb...............A.......................D-..............................A-............................F+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...none.....Def.....none

Down....Off...none.....Def...none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch ...Yuri has been in 1st for a few weeks now...one guy has been chasing him and now has almost caught him 8.14 to 8.08 asst/gm

Stls......Collins....37th....dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...57th...dn

FG%....Okoro....48th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...95th...unch

FTA/FGA....Linssen...37th...dn

TOs in the last game by all teams....23rd

Rich

FG%...Cayo...66th

Assts...Gilyard...12th

Dou Dou....Burton...57th

Stls...Gilyard...1st

Team steals ...46th

Team TOs ...9th 

Injury/ Illness

Bailey...G...2/21/22... Ankle...out till Mid March

Keys to the game....Protect the ball...Gilyard is #1 in steals  ITN Rich has less than 10 TOs /gm....Rich has poor 3P defense...need to make some long shots....Dominate  the Boards...Control the big 3...Gilyard, Burton and Golden

 

WWN2D2W....Make the slash...46 / 37 / 75...TOs 10...Rebs 6+...Hold the Big 3 to less than 40pts combined.

Bottom line...This will be a tough game but we are the better team.  If we play like we did against SJ in the 2nd half we win. If we protect the ball and make some 3s, we can weave a web to victory.

[glazedandconfused]

*assuming SLU and Dayton make it to A10 final.

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

22 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

*assuming SLU and Dayton make it to A10 final.

Bru shut up. We get it. You don't fw the wiz. 

[glazedandconfused]

1 minute ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

Bru shut up. We get it. You don't fw the wiz. 

Just correcting Wiz’s misinformation - fyi you’re free to put me on ignore like you’ve said you were going to multiple times.

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

Just now, glazedandconfused said:

Just correcting Wiz’s misinformation - fyi you’re free to put me on ignore like you’ve said you were going to multiple times.

I never said that. Honestly you seem like a cool guy that I would enjoy having a beer with tbh lol. Much different then the other trolls. But just let the wiz do his thing.  

[glazedandconfused]

Just now, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

I never said that. Honestly you seem like a cool guy that I would enjoy having a beer with tbh lol. Much different then the other trolls. But just let the wiz do his thing.  

I might be getting you confused with slufanskid actually idk 

I can’t just let wiz do his thing when *a part of it is nonsense* and everyone just acts like it makes sense 

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

5 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

I might be getting you confused with slufanskid actually idk 

I can’t just let wiz do his thing when *a part of it is nonsense* and everyone just acts like it makes sense 

It's a game score prediction by a poster called 'the Wiz' using some crazy old school number crunching machine he has (at least that's what I will always envision). It's all kind of nonsense in reality. I don't think anyone is taking these numbers as fact.... This is the SLU Billiken message board. It lives on nonsense. 

[glazedandconfused]

16 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

It's all kind of nonsense

That’s all i was needing. Consider this my last self-congratulatory post (on this matter)

 

 

Glazed over The Wiz by 1….

Chance 2 Dance on the other’s Grave….

Glazed……..100%
The Wiz……0%

 

Dunks on Wiz

Glazed…1st on the Board

 

[glazedandconfused]

Honorable mention Old Guy for actually saying SLU 60% to win A10 tourney was reasonable. 

[Old guy]

Wiz, we have been the better team and still lost games to teams that were not as good as we were/are. Why? Because sh_t happens, it can be anything like someone having a specially great night. We, as a group, cannot make the error to consider that better statistics or even better play assures that we will win the game. I know this is not logical or rational but it happens and has happened. I have seen, in past seasons, an inferior Duquesne team beating us by a good margin. Makes no sense but it happens.

I think we will win against Richmond, all we have to do now is to actually beat them. Will we do it? maybe yes, maybe no. This is particularly true when the margin of win is predicted at 1 pt, as it if for this game. We will see.

Sports prediction has a lot of similarities with investing in the market. Is it possible to make money in the market? yes it is. Do most people make money in the market? no they do not. Why is this so? Probably there are as many reasons as there are people losing money in the market. Yes, they, the losers, follow rules, apply rules and logic to trading/ investing, and listen to a lot of gurus, and yet they lose money. They follow sentiment, and lose even more money. So, what do you need to make money in the market? you need an edge of some kind that you understand and that works for you. Where do you find this edge? hard to say. The answer is that a valid edge can be anything that gets a trader to win, a player to have a great night, or a team to work like magic. Can we describe this edge logically and reasonably, no we really cannot, but if you happen to find it use it. The edge is there some times, not there other times. We will see if we have that edge against Richmond soon enough. We certainly did not have it against St. Bona or Davidson. I hope we have it this next time. Go Bills!

[wgstl]

1 minute ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, we have been the better team and still lost games to teams that were not as good as we were/are. Why? Because sh_t happens, it can be anything like someone having a specially great night. We, as a group, cannot make

 

“Sh1t happens” way too much to consider ourselves better. If it was once or twice, you’re right. It’s been far too often. 

[Old guy]

Come on wgstl, sh_t is not a commodity that is distributed uniformly or according to rules. When it happens there tends to be an abundance of it, and to happen frequently. At other times everything works fine and smoothly. You have seen movies and read books describing runes throwing or soothsaying all trying to determine the best times to do something or the other without the bad stuff happening. In the present times we follow schedules and if the omens are not good, or the tea leaves do not tell a good story, we may be deep into it before you know it. Please understand the word chance. Things happen. And, yes, perhaps (horror of horrors) we are actually not better. That is why we play against other teams competitively, to determine who is better. Right?

[glazedandconfused]

4 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Come on Willie, sh_t is not a commodity that is distributed uniformly or according to rules. When it happens there tends to be an abundance of it, and to happen frequently. At other times everything works fine and smoothly. You have seen movies and read books describing runes throwing or soothsaying all trying to determine the best times to do something or the other without the bad stuff happening. In the present times we follow schedules and if the omens are not good, or the tea leaves do not tell a good story, we may be deep into it before you know it. Please understand the word chance. Things happen. And, yes, perhaps (horror of horrors) we are actually not better. That is why we play against other teams competitively, to determine who is better. Right?

Rashad Williams, is that you? Only other person I’ve ever seen consistently throw up so many duds and still always thinks the next one is money 

[willie]

10 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Come on Willie, sh_t is not a commodity that is distributed uniformly or according to rules. When it happens there tends to be an abundance of it, and to happen frequently. At other times everything works fine and smoothly. You have seen movies and read books describing runes throwing or soothsaying all trying to determine the best times to do something or the other without the bad stuff happening. In the present times we follow schedules and if the omens are not good, or the tea leaves do not tell a good story, we may be deep into it before you know it. Please understand the word chance. Things happen. And, yes, perhaps (horror of horrors) we are actually not better. That is why we play against other teams competitively, to determine who is better. Right?

How did you bring me in this?

[Old guy]

My profound apologies to you Willie, I meant wgstl. That was the one I was responding to.

[billiken_roy]

10 hours ago, glazedandconfused said:

I might be getting you confused with slufanskid actually idk 

I can’t just let wiz do his thing when *a part of it is nonsense* and everyone just acts like it makes sense 

there is probably no regular poster on the board that i look forward to reading than the wiz.   his posting pre-game and post game have become must read.   sure he misses occasionally, but is right more times than not and typically in the post game he will go over his pre-game number needs and predictions and analyze why the billikens did or did not perform.   I am sorry you dont find it as cool as many of us, but i guess that is your perogative.   let those of us that enjoy his deep numbers and why and why not's enjoy.  

Thanks Wiz.   keep on being the Wiz.

[CenHudDude]

2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

there is probably no regular poster on the board that i look forward to reading than the wiz.   his posting pre-game and post game have become must read.   sure he misses occasionally, but is right more times than not and typically in the post game he will go over his pre-game number needs and predictions and analyze why the billikens did or did not perform.   I am sorry you dont find it as cool as many of us, but i guess that is your perogative.   let those of us that enjoy his deep numbers and why and why not's enjoy.  

Thanks Wiz.   keep on being the Wiz.

Nobody beats the Wiz.

[Taj79]

We can lose with the human factor ----- guys making shots they bounce off their arse from three point land no matter the defense (see Davidson).  You want to counter the Wiz, come back with your own numbers, not verbiage.

Back to the human factor, Richmond is still who they were when we first best them.  Golden remains a stoic figure, playing well for the most part.  He isn't shooting from deep much this year and is not a traditional rim protector.  As a matter of fact, Cayo is a better rebounder.  Cayo's offensive game is similar to that of Obinna and Osunniyti, backing his defender down in the paint for hooks and jump shots inside the lane.  Gilyard has been more apt to be a facilitator this year but can go off offensively.  He launches threes more times than not when shooting (35% from three with 193 attempts).  Nick Sherod remains a shell of his former self and comes off the bench.  He can get hot and it too is mostly from three (34% on 144 attempts).    .I will admit to being more impressed with both Gustavson and Grace as the season has gone on.  Gustavson seems to have adopted the role of lock down defender and has done well against the likes of Devon Cooper, Primo Spears and James Bishop.  Grace is a five-minute a stretch man and can and does step out to hit untimely threes.  Over 2/3 of his total shots come from three.  Their run in last year's NIT has enhanced both.

But the main guy remains Tyler Burton, the supposed A10's best NBA-ready body.  Burton leads them in scoring and rebounds and is very streaky.  If he starts hot, look out.  He iss shooting 39% on threes and has launched 132 of them.  As a team, almost 43% of their field goal attempts come from three.  Sherod and Grace come from the bench; the rest are non-factors.  I think the defensive combo of Nesbitt and Thatch on Burton will be one of the real keys to downing the Spiders.  Another mus win on the road against an upper A10 echelon team.  Richmond has lost at home to Davidson, VCU and St. Joe's.  

[CBFan]

I have had the privilege of sitting next to the The Wiz at a game and it is fascinating to me when he shows me numbers and calculations of why things happen in a game.

Being an engineer nerd I like to know what makes things work.   The numbers do not always work just like in engineering there is always a human element.

I am with Skip on the ignore I do not care what the detractor says with their need to set The Wiz and the rest of us straight.

The Wiz, posts on the spread and what they need to do to win is must read the detractor does not bring anything to the board like The Wiz.

[Slu let the dogs out?]

2 hours ago, CBFan said:

I have had the privilege of sitting next to the The Wiz at a game and it is fascinating to me when he shows me numbers and calculations of why things happen in a game.

Being an engineer nerd I like to know what makes things work.   The numbers do not always work just like in engineering there is always a human element.

I am with Skip on the ignore I do not care what the detractor says with their need to set The Wiz and the rest of us straight.

The Wiz, posts on the spread and what they need to do to win is must read the detractor does not bring anything to the board like The Wiz.

Every time I read a Wiz post (love them by the way) my imagination runs wild trying to picture who (or what) Wiz is. Glad to know he is human. A part of me always assumed he was a robot.

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

9 minutes ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

Every time I read a Wiz post (love them by the way) my imagination runs wild trying to picture who (or what) Wiz is. Glad to know he is human. A part of me always assumed he was a robot.

Yep. Same. He's undefeated in my book. Nobody beats the wiz. Part man part machine. 

 

[glazedandconfused]

I’m glad the board agrees!

Wiz, great guy. Each specific game analysis is great! Chance 2 Dance % is nonsense.

There’s really no disagreement anywhere from anyone.

[billiken_roy]

disagree.   nothing about the wiz is nonsense.   you are way off base.

[A10Ref]

My C2D: 100%. I cant be proven one way or the other until we play our last game in DC.

[glazedandconfused]

1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

disagree.   nothing about the wiz is nonsense.   you are way off base.

Oh ok, i agree with you now. Good point