The Bills over Dav by 1

[glazedandconfused]

Thank you Wiz for clarifying. Genuine question (whenever you have a chance), does your model then give a teams like Davidson Bonnies and Richmond a 0% chance to dance since they are already below the 40% threshold? That would explain the overinflated % for SLU Dayton and VCU as the model would then assume one of those 3 wins A10 tourney. And possibly further, it would essentially give SLU the winner of the Dayton/VCU semifinal. Which would make sense that we would have like a 50% chance of winning that game and playing to the A10 final would increase at large odds.

Just trying to make sense of 61%. 

 

*I’m asking this out of interest in projections. 

[Old guy]

2 hours ago, glazedandconfused said:

I thank you for your insights and approaching this seriously. I would ask, do you think SLU has a 61% chance (or around there) of making the tourney? What would you guess SLU’s at-large odds are? Just an estimate not looking for exact numbers

At this time, before we beat or get beaten by Davidson, I think the  61% chance of making the dance is reasonable. If we lose the game with Davidson, the probability will have to go down. The whole issue is to be in position to win the A10 tournament as a way to get into the dance. If we do not win the A10 tournament, I doubt we have the horsepower to get a bid at large. Please check the Team Rankings site, it is instructive and fun.

[glazedandconfused]

35 minutes ago, Old guy said:

At this time, before we beat or get beaten by Davidson, I think the  61% chance of making the dance is reasonable. If we lose the game with Davidson, the probability will have to go down. The whole issue is to be in position to win the A10 tournament as a way to get into the dance. If we do not win the A10 tournament, I doubt we have the horsepower to get a bid at large. Please check the Team Rankings site, it is instructive and fun.

Out of reactions but good post. Sorry to get back into it but thank you for your response. I did check the TR site and it gave SLU a 19% chance to win A10 tourney. The reality of 61% would assume we are (for example)

1. 100% likely to get a top 4 seed. 

2. 100% likely to beat St Bonnies in Quarters. It’s impossible to lose to them.

3. 100% likely to beat Davidson in Semis It’s impossible to lose to them.

4. Would win almost 2/3rd of every neutral site game vs Dayton or VCU (this alone can be argued as reasonable) 

 

We won’t be around 61% likely to win the A10 tourney and make NCAA tourney until we’re up 4-0 to start the A10 finals (assuming, like wiz does, that at-large is essentially 1-2%)

Even if we assume we are 66% likely to beat all 3 A10 tourney opponents (that’s an optimistic assumption but one i wouldn’t take issues with), that still only gives us like 28% chance of winning tourney.

 

I would love to see another A10 team’s fan’s thoughts on 61%  

[Old guy]

Glazedandconfused, please understand that there is no solid relationship between what will actually happen and what is calculated to be likely to happen. Probabilities change constantly. For example, Davidson plays 5 people, the rest sit down. Now, let's suppose that during today's practice one of the 5 at Davidson guys tears an ACL. Gone and done, probabilities for Dav sink, ours shoot up. This scenario is not likely to happen but reality is neither logical nor does it follow a well defined road... Like it is truthfully said sh_t happens.

[HoosierPal]

3 hours ago, wgstl said:

Slash for last 6 games

Davidson  46/28/78 

   SLU       50/41/77   

Davidsons opp: 10 TO's per game. 

Yes

For their 13 A10 conference games, the Wildcats are hitting 34.3% from the Arc.  That is 7th.  No, not in the Nation, in the A10. 

They do go 8 deep, with three they can throw at Okoro/Linssen.  They have had only 3 DQ's all season (opponents have had 11 DQ's), so don't expect Billiken positives with fouls.

[Cowboy II]

-THANK YOU to The Wiz, I like your info, very much actually, and look forward to reading all of it (preseason, game by game, after 8, entering conf, conf tourney and ncaa) - my gosh that's a lot! thank you even more

[Lando Griffin]

I’m with Glazed, I just don’t see how they have a 61% chance of making the tourney. 
 

Also a little shocked they are favored in the road against a team that has won 18/20. 
 

Every game is a huge game but all they can do is win the ones in front of them.  Win this and they are back on the bubble discussion!

 

[NYBilliken]

7 hours ago, wgstl said:

Slash for last 6 games

Davidson  46/28/78 

   SLU       50/41/77   

Davidsons opp: 10 TO's per game. 

Right now Billikens have more players shooting three-pointers with confidence than any time recently that I remember. Season averages are Jimerson 42%, Jones 38%, Collins and Thatch at 37%, Nesbitt 36% and Hargrove 35% -- plus Williams is due to shoot 43% for rest of the season to get back to his career average. That's seven players who need to be guarded outside and all shooting good shots, especially recently as noted. Opponents can no longer focus only on guarding Jimerson.

[Old guy]

I agree with the Wiz's evaluation and stats. This game against Davidson is played between essentially equal teams. That means either one can win, the Wiz favoring SLU by one point means exactly that. Team Rankings just published their game prediction. They are giving it to Dav, with one star of confidence and a 2.5 pt. win advantage to Davidson. Please remember that the one star of confidence and low Vegas line favoring Dav means the same thing. Any one of the teams can win this one. I think that Team Rankings is accomodating the Vegas line, like they do.

Other factors that must be remembered is that several systems give an automatic 4 or 5 points extra for the resident team (against the team playing away). Personally I think we are the better team, like the Wiz does, and may well win this one. Go Bills!

[SluSignGuy]

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

1 minute ago, SluSignGuy said:

Get Smart is so good for this situation

[The Wiz]

Well that was a painful game. This one will be a fairly easy one to analyze.  We could talk about how Dav,   an A+  3P team shot an A++ with a 58%...or how we were out rebounded by a weak rebounding team....or how Dav had an extra 14 FTA which led to an extra 9 pts in FTM.. We could talk about those things but we won't.

Instead, we will talk about the key factor behind the numbers... the slash...the SLU slash. On the surface,  the 3P and FT numbers are pretty much on target. The FG% is a little light  though.  But in order to find out what went wrong...we need to dig in to the numbers a little deeper. Let's look at that FG%...34%...Drilling down a little farther , we get to the 2P shooting...33%  ...not much different... a little distressing that the 34 and 33% are both less than the 3P% (38%)...but lets go all the way down....layups.. you know those 1 and 2 ft shots...We shot a dismal 17.6% ...3-17.   We missed 14 shots...On a normal day, we would have made 14 instead of missing 14.  What does that mean?  It means we missed 11 extra bunnies. ........11 extra layups = 22pts = Bills by 1

Remember what I have said in a number of threads ...we can't lose...we can only give the game away...We gave the game away.

We are now a half game back of 4th pl ...2 games back of 3rd pl VCU who we still have to play at home...Win 3 plus a win over VCU and we can still claim 4th.

The road is a little steeper...but it is still climbable.

[mrjoelabs]

I never bet against SLU if I bet them at all, but man, Today would've been easier money than finding a bag of cash on the street.  Wiz you are amazing with your breakdowns, but Travis was never winning this game..

[The Wiz]

7 hours ago, mrjoelabs said:

I never bet against SLU if I bet them at all, but many, Today would've been easier money than finding a bag of cash on the street.  Wiz you are amazing with your breakdowns, but Travis was never winning this game..

Betting after the game is always easy money.  My record is 100% after the game.

As I stated in the post game analysis, this was a game about missing easy shots (layups...SLU 3-17) vs hard shots ( Dav 14  3PM).  Assuming Ford wouldn't have taken a tech foul in a close game (2pts) we need 10 more layups. That would have given us a FG% of 50.8%  almost the exact target (50%) from my original post and very doable in light of the large number of layups attempted AND a Bills win by 1.

Bottom line....This game was outlier... If the game was played over,  there is a very small chance that we shoot 17.6% on a large number of layups and that Dav shoots 58% on a large number of 3s (they had 5 extra 3s over their ave...15 extra pts.) and that both these events occur in the same game.....these stats all say outlier.

Final takeaway...We execute  the easy shots....we win.

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

Out of reactions, Good Post, Wiz.

[glazedandconfused]

15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Well that was a painful game. This one will be a fairly easy one to analyze.  We could talk about how Dav,   an A+  3P team shot an A++ with a 58%...or how we were out rebounded by a weak rebounding team....or how Dav had an extra 14 FTA which led to an extra 9 pts in FTM.. We could talk about those things but we won't.

Instead, we will talk about the key factor behind the numbers... the slash...the SLU slash. On the surface,  the 3P and FT numbers are pretty much on target. The FG% is a little light  though.  But in order to find out what went wrong...we need to dig in to the numbers a little deeper. Let's look at that FG%...34%...Drilling down a little farther , we get to the 2P shooting...33%  ...not much different... a little distressing that the 34 and 33% are both less than the 3P% (38%)...but lets go all the way down....layups.. you know those 1 and 2 ft shots...We shot a dismal 17.6% ...3-17.   We missed 14 shots...On a normal day, we would have made 14 instead of missing 14.  What does that mean?  It means we missed 11 extra bunnies. ........11 extra layups = 22pts = Bills by 1

Remember what I have said in a number of threads ...we can't lose...we can only give the game away...We gave the game away.

We are now a half game back of 4th pl ...2 games back of 3rd pl VCU who we still have to play at home...Win 3 plus a win over VCU and we can still claim 4th.

The road is a little steeper...but it is still climbable.

Wiz. We didn’t “give the game away” we got smoked. It’s ok to admit. We were beat by a better team. Obviously anything can happen in a rematch, but you have to give it to Davidson, they outplayed us in all facets of the game. This wasn't just missing some shots. 

1. You can’t just say we would make 10(!!) more contested layups. Those are difficult low % shots when it’s our guards/wings going at brajkovic. They weren’t bunnies.

2. Even if we did make 10 more layups, you can’t just assume the 2nd half plays out the same way. They’re getting 5-7 more minutes out of their starters. 

 

 

[MichaelC]

17 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Well that was a painful game. This one will be a fairly easy one to analyze.  We could talk about how Dav,   an A+  3P team shot an A++ with a 58%...or how we were out rebounded by a weak rebounding team....or how Dav had an extra 14 FTA which led to an extra 9 pts in FTM.. We could talk about those things but we won't.

Instead, we will talk about the key factor behind the numbers... the slash...the SLU slash. On the surface,  the 3P and FT numbers are pretty much on target. The FG% is a little light  though.  But in order to find out what went wrong...we need to dig in to the numbers a little deeper. Let's look at that FG%...34%...Drilling down a little farther , we get to the 2P shooting...33%  ...not much different... a little distressing that the 34 and 33% are both less than the 3P% (38%)...but lets go all the way down....layups.. you know those 1 and 2 ft shots...We shot a dismal 17.6% ...3-17.   We missed 14 shots...On a normal day, we would have made 14 instead of missing 14.  What does that mean?  It means we missed 11 extra bunnies. ........11 extra layups = 22pts = Bills by 1

Remember what I have said in a number of threads ...we can't lose...we can only give the game away...We gave the game away.

We are now a half game back of 4th pl ...2 games back of 3rd pl VCU who we still have to play at home...Win 3 plus a win over VCU and we can still claim 4th.

The road is a little steeper...but it is still climbable.

I would be inclined to look at individual matchups along with stats to see where this game was lost. When you find out before the game that Grant Huffman is starting in place of Loyer you would think advantage SLU, when you look at the numbers and see that Huffman and Collins posted pretty much identical stat lines and then you see that Gibson scored a measly 8 points, how are you supposed to win the game under those circumstances? A dominant performance from a Thatch or Nesbitt? Sure, if you play them 10 times that may happen once or twice, but for the most part if your best players don't or can't impose themselves on a game (i.e. you don't dominate a PG matchup that should clearly be in your favor) with an opponent that is otherwise roughly your equal, you're probably going to lose.