The Bills over Dav by 1

[The Wiz]

Chance 2 Dance...

The Bills ....61%...up 2 pts

Day.............58%....unch

VCU............45%.....up 1pt

No other A-10 teams were 40% or above.

We are almost back to where we were before St. B part 1.  You gotta love the Net Efficiency Rating...when ever you pound a team even a weak one,  the computer shows its love. Not just my computer but the NET tracker itself uses the same model.  It is a flaw in the system ...the NCAA knows it's there and leaves it in so the Committee can fix things....make things right...give it that human touch/bias.  The thing you need to know as a fan is...how to avoid the Committee if you are an at large prospect. The answer is ...get your Chance to Dance % up to 70%.

One other issue we need to deal with is the idea that the regular season doesn't matter because of the double St. B loss.  We need to finish 4th or better.  If you believe that the path to the auto bid is through the A-10 tourney, then you should also believe that every regular season game counts. The difference between 4th and 5th place is huge. At this time the computer is picking The Bills to finish 4th....and favored to win the A-10 tourney...A win at Dav would be a big step in that direction...Let's do it.

Before we get started on the Dav game...a tip o' the cap to Fred Thatch who had a career high in points during the LaS game...way to go FT jr.

Now onto the money game. This will be a very close game between 2 evenly matched teams.  A game that could be decided by a FT or TO.  A game that has a good chance at OT.  Dav comes to the game with not only the best offense in the A-10 but one of the best offenses ITN.  But the Bills aren't chopped liver ...our offense is only slightly behind Dav  AND our defense is better.  How much better ?...Enough to even up the game.

Let's look at the report card and see what we are dealing with.

 

...................SLU.....................Dav..........................SLU.........................Dav

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A.......................B+.............................C+............................B-

FG%...............B+.....................A+ 13th ITN............B...............................C+

3P%..............B+......................A+ 16th ITN............B+.............................D+

FT%...............A+ 19th ITN......A+ 16th ITN..............................................

Reb...............A.........................D..............................A-.............................A-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off.....FT%.....Def.....none

Down....Off...none.....Def...none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch

Stls......Collins....28th....dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...48th...dn

FG%....Okoro....47th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...88th...dn

FTA/FGA....Linssen...21st...dn

Dav

FG%...Brajkovic...51st

FT%...Loyer....4th....Jones...79th

Injury/ Illness

None

Keys to the game.....Will our defense be able to slow down their high powered offense? The answer is yes...if we exploit their weakness. They like LaS, have a poor 3P defense...not quite as bad as LaS but only slightly better.  We will have open looks...we need to take AND make 3s.  Loyer and Jones are their 3P and FT guys. Don't foul them when they are shooting 3s...their 3P% will go from over 40% to over 90%.  Key matchup...Okoro vs Brajkovic...Okoro leads in Reb, FT%, FG%, Stls and Blks....Braj leads in PPG, 3P shots and assists....edge to Okoro...when you add in Linssen...advantage SLU

 

WWN2D2W....Bills slash...50/40/80 (180)....Dav will TO the ball 10 times,  we need to match them on TOs...out reb them by 5 (no second chances)...limit Loyer and Jones to four 3PM.  Their top 4 guys score 80% of the pts...Hold their top 4 scorers to 47 pts.

Bottom line...If we play at a high level  like we did against LaS we not only win but win by double digits (let's get that net efficiency rating  working for us).  If we turn the ball over in the high teens we lose.  Keep the TOs down and make some of those open 3s...and don't forget to make the 2 footers too.  If we play Billiken ball, we can tame the Wildcats.

Go Bills

[AnkielBreakers]

Go Wiz. At this point, it feels like you are doubling down on the Bills just to prove a point, but we are all behind you!

[glazedandconfused]

A10 more likely than not to get 2 bids^ 

SLU somehow only favored by 1 at Davidson but implied almost 90% favorite against Davidson on Neutral Site in A10 tourney^

But also VCU and Dayton both significantly better chances at at large than SLU^
 

 

[wgstl]

This is the type of matchups yuri and Gibby love, slower defenders. 

[NH]

1 hour ago, glazedandconfused said:

A10 more likely than not to get 2 bids^ 

SLU somehow only favored by 1 at Davidson but implied almost 90% favorite against Davidson on Neutral Site in A10 tourney^

But also VCU and Dayton both significantly better chances at at large than SLU^
 

 

We get it. You don’t agree with his projections. I would suggest you just ignore them and let those of us who enjoy Wiz’ work read the thread in peace.

[thatskablamo]

9 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Go Wiz. At this point, it feels like you are doubling down on the Bills just to prove a point, but we are all behind you!

I like that… but I was told from an early age “never bet on a team you are emotionally invested in.” I can see the reasons behind that logic for sure. If they break your heart, they’re gonna break the bank too. It’s like “Rounders” on parquet floors. 

[glazedandconfused]

16 minutes ago, NH said:

We get it. You don’t agree with his projections. I would suggest you just ignore them and let those of us who enjoy Wiz’ work read the thread in peace.

I was just pointing out a few things that Wiz was implying in his model. (we all agree his model says those things) Wiz, would love to see A10 tournament odds if your model has them. If not, no worries! 

[A10Ref]

Really glad we’re playing Davidson on the road for Quadrant purposes but wish we’d have our crowd to help sway a few calls. Shocker, I’m interested in how this game will be officiated with the clash of styles. They are by all means finesse and we are going to be physical. If the refs “let ‘em play” we’ll cruise, but I don’t think that’ll be the case. We’re going to have to make plenty of adjustments to pull this one out. Roll bills, baby. Thanks for the analysis, Wiz. 

[Bills By 40]

They may be 16th ITN in 3P%, but we're at 31st ITN and not even a full % point behind them. That doesn't feel like as much of a mismatch as the chart makes it sound unless you look at 3FGA. 

I predict a lot of referee b itch ing after this one, worried about our athletic and strength advantages being stripped from us by the whistle. 

[Old guy]

2 hours ago, glazedandconfused said:

A10 more likely than not to get 2 bids^ 

SLU somehow only favored by 1 at Davidson but implied almost 90% favorite against Davidson on Neutral Site in A10 tourney^

But also VCU and Dayton both significantly better chances at at large than SLU^
 

 

 

51 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

I was just pointing out a few things that Wiz was implying in his model. (we all agree his model says those things) Wiz, would love to see A10 tournament odds if your model has them. If not, no worries! 

OK glazedandconfused, please do not get uptight I am trying to help you understand, I am not putting you down or intending to do so. This stuff is not straightforward and it is confusing for most people. If you are looking for betting odds, the Wiz is not the place to look for them. I suggest you go to Team Rankings (the Wiz uses some of their data in his analysis), find SLU (ranked 51 by them at this time), click on the SLU name/logo and you get to their schedule with W/L scores. The Davidson game is listed, click on the date for the game and this leads you to their summary for this game including some of the betting stuff. Unless you pay for the service the various categories are not open for view until the day of the game, sometimes the night before. There you are given the Vegas line and the different levels of confidence for the estimated spread. The actual betting categories are not open until after the game unless you pay their fee.

By the way, TR also gives their overall projecting probabilities of getting to different levels of the A10 tournament by team. From the SLU screen with its game schedule go to the left panel, click on Standings and Projections, and then below click on projected standings. Look for the A10 league, click on SLU and you have a whole spread of future projected results for SLU. All of this stuff is free for you to play with and enjoy (or not).

Keep in mind that very single service making a prediction as to who will win the game and by how much is just giving their best estimate of what is going to happen, nothing you read anywhere before the game is played reflects reality, for this you have to wait until after the game. Because all of these are nothing but model estimates, they are generally producing different results and different levels of confidence. There is no reason whatsoever to expect this stuff to be an exact science, although some people (like Wiz) are better or much better than others. The issue of predictions is one where you choose who you want to follow, and no  one is correct in every way all of the time. Oh, and just like some people/sites are better than others, some sites are really not very good. Your money, your choice.

[NoCoBillsFan]

Bills by 10. In my opinion this is a favorable match up for us, even at Belk

[Old guy]

3 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

They may be 16th ITN in 3P%, but we're at 31st ITN and not even a full % point behind them. That doesn't feel like as much of a mismatch as the chart makes it sound unless you look at 3FGA. 

I predict a lot of referee b itch ing after this one, worried about our athletic and strength advantages being stripped from us by the whistle. 

That is because, as the Wiz says above, this game may well be decided by a ref call, SLU and Dav are that close.

[BilliesBy40]

51 minutes ago, NH said:

We get it. You don’t agree with his projections. I would suggest you just ignore them and let those of us who enjoy Wiz’ work read the thread in peace.

I think it's totally fair to call out what appears to be blatantly misleading (or maybe better stated, overly hopeful) information regarding our prospects. I enjoy the WIz's work, but the chance-to-dance projections are flawed. 

[glazedandconfused]

17 minutes ago, Old guy said:

 

OK glazedandconfused, please do not get uptight I am trying to help you understand, I am not putting you down or intending to do so. This stuff is not straightforward and it is confusing for most people. If you are looking for betting odds, the Wiz is not the place to look for them. I suggest you go to Team Rankings (the Wiz uses some of their data in his analysis), find SLU (ranked 51 by them at this time), click on the SLU name/logo and you get to their schedule with W/L scores. The Davidson game is listed, click on the date for the game and this leads you to their summary for this game including some of the betting stuff. Unless you pay for the service the various categories are not open for view until the day of the game, sometimes the night before. There you are given the Vegas line and the different levels of confidence for the estimated spread. The actual betting categories are not open until after the game unless you pay their fee.

Keep in mind that very single service making a prediction as to who will win the game and by how much is just giving their best estimate of what is going to happen, nothing you read anywhere before the game is played reflects reality, for this you have to wait until after the game. Because all of these are nothing but model estimates, they are generally producing different results and different levels of confidence. There is no reason whatsoever to expect this stuff to be an exact science, although some people (like Wiz) are better or much better than others. The issue of predictions is one where you choose who you want to follow, and no  one is correct in every way all of the time. Oh, and just like some people/sites are better than others, some sites are really not very good. Your money, your choice.

Thank you for your response. It really is quite simple. I have no issue with his individual game lines/analysis. I also don’t bet on the games, I prefer to bet on games i don’t have a rooting interest in. My questions  are with Wiz saying we are 61% to make the NCAA tournament. That number doesn’t make sense especially because says we have 1-2% chance at an at-large bid. 

 

If these aren’t actual projections and just projections *IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT for SLU and SLU alone*, that’s fine. I have no problems. But if that’s the case, it doesn’t really provide any insight at all.

[Old guy]

15 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

I think it's totally fair to call out what appears to be blatantly misleading (or maybe better stated, overly hopeful) information regarding our prospects. I enjoy the WIz's work, but the chance-to-dance projections are flawed. 

Yes and no, all models have flaws, and not one of them gives an absolutely correct view of reality. They all are future projections, based upon current data, of future events. The closer we get to the outcome the better the projections become. The Wiz's strong point is his play analysis, and it is based upon games already played this season. That means real play results. In my opinion, if anyone is closest to reality in this prediction business, the Wiz is among the best, because his play analysis methodology is something no one else that I know uses.

[glazedandconfused]

9 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Yes and no, all models have flaws, and not one of them gives an absolutely correct view of reality. They all are future projections, based upon current data, of future events. The closer we get to the outcome the better the projections become. The Wiz's strong point is his play analysis, and it is based upon games already played this season. That means real play results. In my opinion, if anyone is closest to reality in this prediction business, the Wiz is among the best, because his play analysis methodology is something no one else that I know uses.

I thank you for your insights and approaching this seriously. I would ask, do you think SLU has a 61% chance (or around there) of making the tourney? What would you guess SLU’s at-large odds are? Just an estimate not looking for exact numbers

[Taj79]

As far as personnel go, Davidson is a five-man team like Bonaventure.  But if theBonnies are physical,  Davidson is finesse.  Foster Loyer at the point has been fantastic.  Very much a John Stockton-like clone who can shoot the three and distribute.  A10 Talk projects him as A10 POY over josh Oduro due to playing on the #1 team in the conference.  We shall see.  Desmond Watson and Grant Huffman provide short, relatively meaningless breaks for the Davidson back court if needed.  Hyunjung Lee is the shooting guard.  Lee has been up and down a lot this year but is the first coming of Gibson Jimerson in that Lee started doing what Gibby is doing last year.  He plays just like Gibby does now ---- constant motion, playing off screens.  Luke Brajkovic remains the center.  I still think he's soft, a center in the Ian Vouyoukous vein.  A Euro center.  He's shooting about 40% from three but in the games I've seen, most of his makes come from the top of the key arc area.  He is best straight on --- so don't allow that. He is crafty in the paint so I think denial defense ought to be preached.  Your really can't double down because all four other guys can shoot it from distance.  Mike Jones is not to be triffled with.  I watched him go off for 29 at Richmond where he made 8 of 9 threes.  And that's what he does, shoot threes.  Sam Mennenga remains an enigma to me.  Kind of like the fifth wheel on the wagon.  He is their worst shooter from three and the line percentage wise.  Last year, many of the prognosticator guys said the Kiwi was the best incoming recruit in the conference.  I have yet to see that.  Nelson Boachie Yiadom is the only front court sub and he is an offensive zero.  If he even sniffs a basket, something's wrong.  

I expect McKillop to show us what we know --- start in a man-to-man and then shift gears going to a zone.  We need to run and push the ball like we did against La Salle.  I don't think their short bench can stay with us.  It would be nice to attack Brajkovic and get some early fouls on him but we are at Davidson not the other way around.

[NH]

2 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

I thank for your insights and approaching this seriously. I would ask, do you think SLU has a 61% chance (or around there) of making the tourney? What would you guess SLU’s at-large odds are? Just an estimate not looking for exact numbers

What are you going for / what would you like to prove? Are you looking for an alternative guess at what our at-large chances are? Bart Torvik has us at 30% chance to make the tourney and 23% chance to win the conference tournament. That may be a good resource for you to refer to if you want an alternative to The Wiz: https://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=A10

Your complaint about apparent contradictions in the chance to dance has been lodged for the official record. 

[rgbilliken]

I'll admit I don't understand the >50% chance to dance @The Wiz predicts, but I'll take it. I wouldn't say "no" if Wiz wants to help us understand what he means by that projection, though. It is confusing that we probably have like a 20-30% chance of winning the A10 tourney for the auto bid at best and only a few percent chance at an at large right now. Maybe he's saying that's the chance *assuming all the games play out as his model predicts? I could see that. We're probably favored in most games going forward and if we win all that we're favored to win that'd give us a pretty good shot at dancing.

[glazedandconfused]

8 minutes ago, NH said:

What are you going for / what would you like to prove? Are you looking for an alternative guess at what our at-large chances are? Bart Torvik has us at 30% chance to make the tourney and 23% chance to win the conference tournament. That may be a good resource for you to refer to if you want an alternative to The Wiz: https://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=A10

Your complaint about apparent contradictions in the chance to dance has been lodged for the official record. 

Fair - i’ve made my point. I’ll let it rest. Still would like to see some A10 tourney projections but no big deal if not.  

[brianstl]

Just now, glazedandconfused said:

I thank for your insights and approaching this seriously. I would ask, do you think SLU has a 61% chance (or around there) of making the tourney? What would you guess SLU’s at-large odds are?

I think we might be too close to SLU and a few disappointing results this season to properly judge SLU's at large chances.  If selection Sunday was today, we would not get in.  The good thing is it isn't today.  Most of the computer systems like SLU more than the traditional bracketologists.  Right now T-rank has us as the 8th team out.  Bracket Matrix has us as the 12th team out.  The difference is because T-Rank uses a simulation to play out the rest of the regular season.  They have us going 3-2.  If we go 4-1, we move ourselves to the last 4 in.

[Taj79]

WIN       THE        A10        TOURNAMENT!   Only real answer.

[wgstl]

Slash for last 6 games

Davidson  46/28/78 

   SLU       50/41/77   

Davidsons opp: 10 TO's per game. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU's best rating this season has been the ESPN BPI, where SLU is 41 to Marquette's 47.
 

Keep the BPI free. Follow the BPI.

[The Wiz]

I thought I explained the C2D in the LaS thread. I will try one more time to make it clear.  There is a 100% chance that 1 team will make it from the A-10 tourney.  After the tourney is over and we know who the champ is ...the next step is the remaining teams  (those that have at least a 40% Chance to Dance). go into the pool that the Selection Committee draws from.  At that point the computer then tries to assess the chances of the 36 teams in the pool...some are shoo-ins and almost an auto bid when they get to Committee.  Others fall into the "Twilight Zone" ...the area where you are at the mercy of the Committee. You could have 30  teams vying for a dozen spots. 

As far as the C2D calculation ...I think what may be confusing on the percent is that it is comprised of 2 SEPARATE and SUCCESSIVE calculations  that are then put together for an overall probability to make the Dance.. The Committee selection,  especially the TZ picks,  are subjective...meaning the NET tracker is out and "something else" is making the determination.

As to what I post...Unfortunately this isn't my regular job.  I have to pick and choose what I post due to the unending volume of data...even the game day spread threads could be 3 or 4 times longer.  In the end , I try to write about things that I want to know about as a fan and others would be interested in by using   a simple format   By using a simple format to make the conclusions quick and easy ...sometimes the methodology gets lost in the translation.  I try to explain things from time to time but I certainly don't want to turn this into a class on how to calculate sports probability.

Bottom line ....C2D= 2 separate and successive calculations that are put together before they happen.  The probability that everyone will like or understand this post is 0%