GDT: Beat the Bonnies Part 1

[cheeseman]

2 minutes ago, someoneelse said:

If something happens a lot of the time, can we really be that disgruntled when it happens again?  Especially with different refs and different opponents. 

I try not be Charles Foster Kane who gives two headline choices, 'Kane Wins' or 'Fraud at the Polls.'  

I don't think there are secret zebra meetings trying to figure out how to hose the Bills, without being too obvious about it.  

No but refs do adjust how they call the game based on what they are told to highlight.  If fouls under the basket is not an emphasis then they won't be called.  If you play in the paint a lot then you will be at a disadvantage.

[rgbilliken]

45 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Expanding on this.  Here is the foul discrepancy each game.  + number = more fouls called on opponent, - number = more fouls called on SLU. (ref names)

11/9/21 Central Ark: +2 (Greg Moyer, Ed Crenshaw, Matt Rafferty)

11/10/21 Harris Stowe: -6 (John Floyd, Alfred Smith, Andy O'Brien)

11/12/21 Eastern Ill: +1 (Chance Moore, Tyler Kumpf, Rusty Phillips)

11/16/21 @Memphis: +3 (Bert Smith, Terry Wymer, Anthony Jordan)

11/20/21 Mercer: +7 (?)

11/23/21 N-Illinois St: +3 (John Floyd, Alfred Smith)

11/24/21 N-SFA: +4 (?)

11/30/21 @Boise St: -3 (Eric Curry, Randy McCall, Mike Reed)

12/4/21 UAB: +6 (Jeb Hartness, Brooks Wells, Bart Lenox)

12/7/21 Belmont: even (Gerry Pollard, Brent Hampton, Chance Moore)

12/11/21 BC: -2 (Tony Anderson, Bill Covington Jr, Jeff Pon)

12/18/21 Auburn: +6 (Ron Groover, Joe Lindsay, Jeb Hartness)

1/8/22 Iona: +1 (Michael Luckie, Raymond Styons, Andy O'Brien)

Non-conference average: +1.69

1/2/22 Richmond: -1 (Pat Driscoll, Mike Roberts, Lamar Simpson)

1/11/22 @Dayton: -7 (John Gaffney, Ray Natili, Brian O'Connell)

1/15/22 Fordham: +1 (Jeff Pon, Mark Schnur, Jemel Spearman)

1/20/22 @UMass: -7 (Brian Dorsey, Brian O'Connell, Clarence Armstrong)

1/23/22 UMass: -1 (Kipp Kissinger, Terry Wymer, Brooks Wells)

1/26/22 GW: -3 (Amy Bonner, Wally Rutecki, Jeff Pon)

1/29/22 @Duq: -7 (Ron Tyburski, Les Jones, Trey Styons)

2/2/22 @Mason: -11 (Joe Lindsay, Greg Evans, Bill Covington Jr)

2/5/22 Dayton: -2 (?)

2/8/22 @LaSalle: -1 (Pat Driscoll, Tim Clougherty, Mark Schnur)

A10 conference average: -3.9

Non-con average vs A10 average = -5.59

SLU actually played a tougher overall NC schedule than their A10 schedule so far according to KenPom

This is a totally imperfect measurement.  I don't think fouls should be even in each game & refs trying to keep them even is dumb/bad.  There are also obviously game where we or an opponent might be fouling late try to get back in the game which skew the numbers.  I'd imagine that evens out over a large enough sample and the difference between non-conference vs conference fouls is pretty stark.

Edit: adding officials names to data set.  I was thinking some explanation could be different refs used by the A10, but there appears to be some overlap w non-con & virtually no consistency game to game.

Theories:

1. The ref conspiracy against SLU is bigger than I thought
2. This is just a random thing with so much noise it is meaningless
3. SLU has started playing more aggressively / physical during A10 play leading to more fouls.
4. A10 opponents have SLU scouted better & are avoiding/drawing more fouls than the NC opponents because of it
5. Refs are easily influenced by fans leading to a HC advantage.  More road games during A10 play = worse foul discrepancy for SLU.
6. SLU (or certain players on SLU) has developed a reputation of being physical / foul prone as the season has gone on.  Refs are calling more on them because of that reputation.

It's definitely a conspiracy. It's not unheard of....Remember this?? 2007 NBA betting scandal - Wikipedia

[Adman]

1 hour ago, A10Ref said:

I bet there'll be 8-9K in attendance. Hopefully no late arrivals as there's not much of an excuse for being late to an 8pm tip, but it happened at a 1pm saturday game so I can't expect too much.

I talked to a couple late arrivers who said the traffic was horrific due to snow/ice in the days before… and 9500 trying to get in. 
 

But with most of snow and ice melted -   and late start - no excuses tonight.

[Bay Area Billiken]

CBSSports.com has the line as SLU -5.5, o137.5. ESPN.com concurs, SLU -5.5, Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Do DQ's mean foul outs?  If so, we've only had 3 players foul out at home this year, 2 of those being Nesbitt. 

Yes, Disqualified for 5 fouls (unlike the reference from the Dayton game of the game being disqualified-I never understood that.)

Jimerson 1 (first one of his career)

Collins 2

Okoro 3

Nesbitt 2

Linssen 3

 

[Taj79]

We need Franco to be just as good tonight as he was at La Salle.  We need to attack Osunniyi  and go at him some.  I think with Franco and Linssen, we are in a better position to do that than we were with French.  In last year's blowout loss in the A10 tournament, French was not equipped to attack Osunniyi.  He shot 2 for 8.  Linssen played only 11 minutes (Ford had to go with his main man French there more solo than this year).  Ossuniyi had seven blocks.  Bonaventure had 9 total blocks.  Franco has a hook shot and can lean nto the shot blocker.  Key #1.

Key #2 is conected, team fouls.  The Bonnies had ten total last year.  We need to attack more.  Early game refereeing will be interesting.

Key #3 is shooting.  Last year, while scoring 17 and 15, Adaway and Holmes shot a combined 11 for 26.  Adaway made seven.  Combined, the Bonnies shot 5 of 21 from three. 

Win on two fo these three keys will be critical. 

[Cowboy II]

-looking at SLUBillikens.com there are at least 1,000 seat available in the 200 sections, I say at least because there are 5 sections with more than 100 tickets available in each, 141 available in the 100 sections

[dlarry]

16 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

We need Franco to be just as good tonight as he was at La Salle.  We need to attack Osunniyi  and go at him some.  I think with Franco and Linssen, we are in a better position to do that than we were with French.  In last year's blowout loss in the A10 tournament, French was not equipped to attack Osunniyi.  He shot 2 for 8.  Linssen played only 11 minutes (Ford had to go with his main man French there more solo than this year).  Ossuniyi had seven blocks.  Bonaventure had 9 total blocks.  Franco has a hook shot and can lean nto the shot blocker.  Key #1.

Key #2 is conected, team fouls.  The Bonnies had ten total last year.  We need to attack more.  Early game refereeing will be interesting.

Key #3 is shooting.  Last year, while scoring 17 and 15, Adaway and Holmes shot a combined 11 for 26.  Adaway made seven.  Combined, the Bonnies shot 5 of 21 from three. 

Win on two fo these three keys will be critical. 

Linssen is crafty. I think he can get Ossuniyi up in the air or out of position and use that it his advantage. 

[Fraz]

Think others may have mentioned it, but this will not have a Q3 game feel.  Think it will be much tougher and could be one of our better wins.

[CBFan]

1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

We need Franco to be just as good tonight as he was at La Salle.  We need to attack Osunniyi  and go at him some.  I think with Franco and Linssen, we are in a better position to do that than we were with French.  In last year's blowout loss in the A10 tournament, French was not equipped to attack Osunniyi.  He shot 2 for 8.  Linssen played only 11 minutes (Ford had to go with his main man French there more solo than this year).  Ossuniyi had seven blocks.  Bonaventure had 9 total blocks.  Franco has a hook shot and can lean nto the shot blocker.  Key #1.

Key #2 is conected, team fouls.  The Bonnies had ten total last year.  We need to attack more.  Early game refereeing will be interesting.

Key #3 is shooting.  Last year, while scoring 17 and 15, Adaway and Holmes shot a combined 11 for 26.  Adaway made seven.  Combined, the Bonnies shot 5 of 21 from three. 

Win on two fo these three keys will be critical. 

I think we might see Traore in the mix defending and wearing down Osunniyi if Linssen struggles and if there is foul trouble.

It is so exciting to be playing meaningful games in February with a chance to win the conference.

[DOC]

4 hours ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

Majority of students are casual fans that only go for name value opponents. Even if we got hot there’s definitely a portion of the student body that wouldn’t know bc they only check scores in passing. It’s hard for us to fathom because we’re hardcore fans. 
 

If we could get a couple tournament appearances in a row I think that would make a difference. That would grab attention.

I was on campus yesterday and there was a sign every 20 yards about tonight’s game. I’m guessing that’s not a normal occurrence because you would have to walk around campus stoned out of your mind not to know about tonight’s game. 

[Franchise_08]

This is a revenge game

[Bay Area Billiken]

Beat the Bonnies!

I'm reminded of the Illinois announcer of my youth, "I don't care how it happens as long as Illinois wins."

I don't care how it happens, as long as SLU wins (and no one gets injured).  We owe Bona, big time.

SLU is 13-14 all-time vs. the Bonnies.  Tonight is the night to even the series.

[CBFan]

11 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Beat the Bonnies!

I'm reminded of the Illinois announcer of my youth, "I don't care how it happens as long as Illinois wins."

I don't care how it happens, as long as SLU wins (and no one gets injured).  We owe Bona, big time.

SLU is 13-14 all-time vs. the Bonnies.  Tonight is the night to even the series.

Sweep them home and home move the consecutive wins total to 8 and conference wins to 10 to secure a winning conference record with games in hand.

As Jack Buck would say about sweeping a doubleheader you have to win the first game to sweep.  Get it done tonight for a near capacity crowd.

[A10Ref]

does Schmidt still wear khaki pants with his sport coat and tie? If so, he looks like a 9 year old going to christmas mass.

[billiken_roy]

4 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

does Schmidt still wear khaki pants with his sport coat and tie? If so, he looks like a 9 year old going to christmas mass.

hmmmmmmm i wear that outfit a lot.   

[A10Ref]

12 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

hmmmmmmm i wear that outfit a lot.   

I do, too lol. But in comparison to the 800K+ per year coaches, it's quite a look. I do respect his casual attitude with it. No reason for coaches to be dressed in super fancy suits as usually were until covid. Whereas the Jay Wright's of the world couldn't be more different.

[A10Ref]

Need 8pm to get here now. I am ready for some budweiser and basketball.

[Matty Light]

13 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

No reason for coaches to be dressed in super fancy suits as usually were until covid. Whereas the Jay Wright's of the world couldn't be more different.

It is definitely a vestige of the past. Even Shooter brought out his wedding suit to coach Hickory. It was a real humdinger.

[slu72]

The difference in this team vs last year's squad that got blown out in the A10 tourney is last year we counted primarily on French, Perkins, and JGood. Plus last year's squad never fully recovered from the China Flu. We played to St B's small ball style. We are more up tempo this year, not as much as maybe we'd like, but we are. Also, it's not just one of our big 3 we're counting on to put us on their back. The hero game has come from many different players, ie one game Jimerson, next Yuri, Okoro, Linssen, TJ, Nesbitt, Fred have all shown flashes of hero ball. Furthermore, I think Osuniyi has a tougher time with Linssen and Okoro than he had with Has. Has was very limited in his shot selection, and our current two have shown a more varied selection. No doubt Osuniyi is an immovable force down low and a disruptor. This is when I wish we had a 6'9" big, ala Loe, who could step out and hit the outside shot. Any thing to get him outside his turf, which he protects really well. Of course, if we do push the ball he'll be less of a factor and we can tire him out quicker as well. As always, I fear St B games for they seem to have our number.  I hope our players do not. 

[jonny karate]

Go go go go! Chop!

[AnkielBreakers]

59 minutes ago, slu72 said:

The difference in this team vs last year's squad that got blown out in the A10 tourney is last year we counted primarily on French, Perkins, and JGood. Plus last year's squad never fully recovered from the China Flu. We played to St B's small ball style. We are more up tempo this year, not as much as maybe we'd like, but we are. Also, it's not just one of our big 3 we're counting on to put us on their back. The hero game has come from many different players, ie one game Jimerson, next Yuri, Okoro, Linssen, TJ, Nesbitt, Fred have all shown flashes of hero ball. Furthermore, I think Osuniyi has a tougher time with Linssen and Okoro than he had with Has. Has was very limited in his shot selection, and our current two have shown a more varied selection. No doubt Osuniyi is an immovable force down low and a disruptor. This is when I wish we had a 6'9" big, ala Loe, who could step out and hit the outside shot. Any thing to get him outside his turf, which he protects really well. Of course, if we do push the ball he'll be less of a factor and we can tire him out quicker as well. As always, I fear St B games for they seem to have our number.  I hope our players do not. 

Add Free throws.

I wouldn’t say that they have our number. Split last year. Beat them by 20 at their house the year before. The year before that, we won in spectacular fashion.

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

I don't often get the opportunity to take a nap, but I'll be d*mned if that didn't feel like a victory nap!!

[Old guy]

The Bills this year are vastly different from what they were last year. Last year we centered our play on French, Goodwin, and Perkins. We had lots of additional talent in the roster (Hargrove, Jimersson, Yuri, Linssen, Jacobs) but somehow  those 3 played most of the game and the other players were secondary. This year, after the loss of Perkins we had to  develop a more distributed form of play using more of our bench talent for significant minutes. This is what I think the main difference with last year is all about, we are using our talent better and disrupting the other team's plans better. This better integration of more players in our standard game is, I think, what gives us the edge.

[NoCoBillsFan]

4 hours ago, DOC said:

I was on campus yesterday and there was a sign every 20 yards about tonight’s game. I’m guessing that’s not a normal occurrence because you would have to walk around campus stoned out of your mind not to know about tonight’s game. 

Yeah, but they only bring those out for big games. So far this year they’ve only had them for Dayton and St Bonaventure