Jump to content

The Bills over Day by 4


The Wiz

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Best in the A10?  I want to say yes and the convincing is still going on what with two road wins now under our belt.  That is a two-win place we weren't at five days ago.  So I'm on the upswing.  

For those new to this space, I tried to handicap the A10 race every year about this time.  What I have learned is such an endeavor is futile.  Some team will inexplicably eat another team (see Rhodey at Fordham).  Somebody will jump up and smack down a league leader (us at La Salle last year).  Things happen you never see coming (Dayton wins at VCU by THIRTY).  But the key is always to get a top four finish so you don't have to play four day in a row come Brooklyn or DC. 

So trying to handicap that,  here goes:

The top four spots are defined now as Davidson, Dayton, Us and VCU.  But VCU has three conference losses and Mason only 2.  Bonaventure lurks nearby with three losses as well.  So to me, it's six vying for four spots with Richmond a distant afterthought.

Davidson:  currently 8 and 1.  Remaining schedule:  SLU and Mason come to them, they close at Dayton.  Only playing three contenders in their remaining 9 games.  They also go to Jekyll-and-Hyde Rhode Island.  Strength:  disciplined team playing McKillop's system.  They shoot threes.  Foster Loyer a much better floor general than Kellan Grady.  Weaknesses:  only really go 3.5 deep.  Loyer, Lee and Brajkovic are solid and steady.  Mike Jones can get white hot from three.  Sam Mennenga remains a mystery.  No bench as Huffman and Boachie-Yiadom only provide brief respites for the starters.  Just about a lock for a top four if not #1.  I'd be stunned if they lost more than one more.  Looks like 16 and 2.

Dayton:  Currently 7 and 2.  Remaining schedule:  us, at Rhode Island, at Richmond and the Davidson season ender.  I list Rhodey here because that is usually a pretty good game with Rhodey success and then Richmond at Richmond.  Strengths:  decent defense with just enough offense to win.  Trashing VCU will do wonders for youthful confidence.  We need to slap them down.  Weakness:  youth, exterior shooting, turnovers, free throw shooting.  Smith is the only true point guard on the roster.  Seems they can be pressed and with youth comes turnovers.  Holmes is shooting 57% from the line.  Short bench with Weaver out hurt.  Even if you get the four games in question to be losses, Dayton still finishes at 11 and 7.  Split them and it's 13 and 5.  

VCU:  Currently 6 and 3.  Remaining schedule:  home-and-home with Mason, home to the Bonnies and us at Chaifetz.  They also host a city rivalry game against Richmond who they already beat 64 to 62.  Strengths:  HAVOC.  Although it's not the Havoc of old.  Weaknesses:  basketball skills.  Only Ace Baldwin and Vince WIlliams score over 10 ppg.  While some would say they are deep, I remain unimpressed.  They almost blew the Davidson game.  Amazing how teams can turn it on and erase double digits deficits late.  Sounds like us.  Frankly, maybe two more losses coming home.  Finish at 13 and 5 or 12 and 6 (if Richmond bites them --- the WIlliams injury ios key.  How long is out?)

Mason:  currently 4 and 2.  Remaining schedule:  @ Richmond, VCU, @VCU and @ Davidson.  Thisd woudl appear to be at least three more losses.  Then factor in the Mason has already lost at Geedubya and there is a decent chance upsets occur against them here in this schedule.  They have to go to La Salle, go to the Joeys and go to Fordham so who knows.  Strengths:  new coach Kim English and program revival.  Weaknesses:  they only go 4 deep and employ a fifth, Xavier Johnson as the de facto point.  Their four are however likely better than about the entire rosters of six other teams.  Man, when the A10 is down, it's down!  I don't have enough evidence to rule yay or nay on this group but my inclination is to say they will fade.

Bonaventure:  Currently 4 and 3.  Remaining schedule:  @ Richmond tonight (ESPN2), home and home with SLU, @ VCU and home with Richmond again along with hosting URI.  Seems to me the schedule maker really likes Bonaventure more years than not.  Strengths:  veteran leadership.  Weaknesses:  it's a five man rotation with absolutely no bench help available.  Linton Brown, a JUCO All-American, remains out with COVID issues.  I believe they have to break down sooner or later.  Still, if they don't, I can see maybe three more losses to blemish their record and take them to a 12 and 6 or 11 and 7 record.

Which leaves us.  Currently 6 and 2.  The focus is on the schedule.  We have the most brutal closing schedule out there.  We have feasted on the weak sisters of this conference.  Key games include Saturday with Dayton, the two with the Bonnies, at Davidson, @ URI, @ Richmond and closing @ VCU.  That is seven total games where we must defend the home fires (3 key games) steal one or two on the road and suffer no cannibalization from the league's bottom feeders La Salle and St. Joe's.  

Based on the above, the only lock I will administer is to Davidson but our schedule will make it challenging for us to get a top four.  And as it satnds, La Salle is the ultimate trap game.  At their place of course.

Taj, I believe your analysis is the type of analysis I have come to expect from Team Rankings, they go an extra step using the Vegas line to fine tune the individual game predictions. This may also be in line with some of the analysis done by the Wiz's model, the difference being that the Wiz's model engages in play analysis for the opposing teams. This goes much farther into details than what you or TR are doing. Play analysis is what gives the Wiz the ability to report what the Bills have to do to win each game. The Wiz's model provides a road map to winning a game for each game played by SLU. I do not know any other model that does this kind of analysis successfully.

I do not have a formal sports analysis program, but I like to look at the differences between what the Vegas line (large numbers) expects to see as the outcome of a game, and what the actual outcome is. Some of the issues I fix on are unexpected events, like ref bias, a player doing much better than expected and similar things. I think the total difficulty presented by an opposing team is not simply a matter of who they have played in the  past and how good or bad these teams were. The same applies to future games.

I see the win against GM as a turning point for SLU this year. We played at their home court, against biased refs, and SLU played better than I expected. On the positive side, Yuri had a great night (these happen but you cannot predict when they will happen), and Traore played better than I though he would after Linssen and Okoro fouled out. SLU did not fold at the end either, we played hard until the last second of the game (literally). I expected that SLU would not be able  to hold GM after Linssen and Okoro fouled out but this was not the case, we won. I think we watched something new coming from the Bills in this game, and I am looking forward to see this team playing again and again.

That said, I think that if we beat Dayton tomorrow we will have a very strong possibility to win the Conference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 83
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

3 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Key games include Saturday with Dayton, the two with the Bonnies, at Davidson, @ URI, @ Richmond and closing @ VCU.  That is seven total games where we must defend the home fires (3 key games) steal one or two on the road and suffer no cannibalization from the league's bottom feeders La Salle and St. Joe's.  

Based on the above, the only lock I will administer is to Davidson but our schedule will make it challenging for us to get a top four.  And as it satnds, La Salle is the ultimate trap game.  At their place of course.

The VCU game is at Chaifetz.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have been discussing different models or ways to estimate sports games performances. I did mention that despite its simplification and built in flaws, the TR model included modifications due to the Vegas line. This introduces large number data into their calculations which I think is a positive feature of their system.

TR just posted their prediction for this game. They are giving the win to SLU by 4 pts and with two stars of confidence. Notice that the two stars of confidence makes this prediction less of a toss up than the estimate for the GM game was. However it may not be an easy game. The pregame stats favor SLU both offensively and defensively.

This estimate, produced by a totally different methodology, provides support for the Wiz's  model, as I thought it would.

Now, let's go and beat Dayton, go Bills.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i just think it is futile to complain and sulk about refs.   that wont win.  that is just an excuse to lose.   we should be above that.  particularly with the best talent in the A-10

HoosierPal and almaman like this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i just think it is futile to complain and sulk about refs.   that wont win.  that is just an excuse to lose.   we should be above that.  particularly with the best talent in the A-10

We all know what Dayton is going to do, because it's been working.  They will 1) build a wall around the rim, this time with the best frontcourt in the A10  2) get back in transition to prevent easy baskets 3) bomb away from 3 over our smaller defenders.

It's critical for us to make jumpers early today to make points 1 and 2 less of an issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i just think it is futile to complain and sulk about refs.   that wont win.  that is just an excuse to lose.   we should be above that.  particularly with the best talent in the A-10

If fouls are called 30-19 against us, I will complain every time.  It’s not right 

BuiltFordBills likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

When’s the last time we beat Dayton?  It’s been a couple of years…

The last time I remember was in the A10 tournament when the Bills won all 4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

We all know what Dayton is going to do, because it's been working.  They will 1) build a wall around the rim, this time with the best frontcourt in the A10  2) get back in transition to prevent easy baskets 3) bomb away from 3 over our smaller defenders.

It's critical for us to make jumpers early today to make points 1 and 2 less of an issue.

 

Which we never relinquished.  Even an MBM can figure this one out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

Yep. That was a good time for a win

I still have all 4 games on my DVR and watch it once in a while.

What a game today it had it all.

I was a coach Grant fan until today he and his staff are whiny.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, willie said:

I bet Dayton fans think Travis is a stand up guy. 

Was the snark necessary?

Great win go bills

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Bills make a statement.   Make sure to check tomorrow's Chance to Dance. You will like what you see....

Let's see how we grounded the Flyers..

Bolded statements are taken from my original post in this thread EXCEPT...the first one...that came from the GDT thread prior to the game by @slu72.

We didn't have Linssen in our first game. I'm hoping he can make the difference today. Also, Williams getting more minutes lately makes me wonder if Ford doesn't think he has a secret weapon in him. Of course, Williams hasn't exactly been shooting lights out, so it could be our Chinese hypersonic missile; ie it looks scary but they don't know what or where it's gonna hit. ...nice observation slu72

Key Matchups...Yuri and Smith...Smith is like an imitation Yuri...assists, steals, some pts , some rebs ..good player but the real Yuri is better in all categories. Yuri wins this matchup....Here is what it looked like....Yuri....reb..8...ast..6...blk..1...stl..2...pts..16

........Smith..........5..........4..........0.........2...........8.....As predicted Yuri wins the matchup....

Next...Okoro and Holmes ...The Battle of the Big Boys...Holmes has an extra inch ...Okoro an extra 15 lbs.......Holmes has the edge in blocks ...Okoro in Reb...Holmes has the edge in FG%  but in recent weeks Okoro has matched him. Toss up...add Linssen with additional shooting % and rebounding ...advantage SLU ...and here is what that looked like

Okoro....reb..7...ast..1...TO..0...blk..2...pts..5

Holmes.........7..........2.........2..........2..........4....as predicted this was a tossup ..now let's add Linssen 

Linssen ...the only stat you need to see here is 17 pts...and yes, it is SLU advantage just as the post says.


This will be a low scoring, defensive struggle...yes it was

Score 70...the more we score over 70 the better chance we have to win....another statement that worked out well

TOs 11...Bingo...btw  even though we had 3 more TOs then them, our Pts off TOs were 13 to their 8...TO efficiency was and has been very good

The Bills need an extra 4+ rebs... 6 is even better

Hold Camera , Holmes and Smith to 25pts.... actual..34pts...these came from Elvis who scored 20...the extra 9 came from 2 extra 3PM and 3 extra FTM from him

  Brea and Elvis (is he still alive?) are their 3 pt guys...hold them to five 3PA. ...they had 7 (6 from Elvis)...again 2 extra 3s from Elvis...He was "all shook up" today but I am sure "he is lonely tonight"

 Smith is their FT guy...don't send him to the charity stripe...We didn't...0-1

46/36/77... Might be more important to make the slash  as there may be less shots this game....also less rebs. ...And last but not least...the actual...49/44/86... This is why we won and exceeded the spread...1 extra 3 and 2 extra FTs...btw there were less rebs ...about 5 and we had 14 less shots....so yes the slash was very important.

Bottom line... a signature game... a great win...and Big Mo (momentum) Keep it going.

Old guy likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, CBFan said:

Was the snark necessary?

Great win go bills

I’m sorry but I found Willie’s Travis comment hilarious, almost as funny as slu72 Rashad/Chinese hypersonic missile analogy.  I’m still cracking up!

Travis is becoming widely hated around the league.  My brothers told me the Mason fans were working him over.  I see this as a good thing….think about who are the coaches we Chaifetz folks hurled the most flak at this year…Pearl and Pitino….

majerus mojo likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Gremio14 said:

I’m sorry but I found Willie’s Travis comment hilarious, almost as funny as slu72 Rashad/Chinese hypersonic missile analogy.  I’m still cracking up!

Travis is becoming widely hated around the league.  My brothers told me the Mason fans were working him over.  I see this as a good thing….think about who are the coaches we Chaifetz folks hurled the most flak at this year…Pearl and Pitino….

I miss the days of destroying Kellog and Martelli

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Dayton student section, which is right by the opposition's bench in Dayton, serenaded Ford with sing-song chants of "Travis.  Travis.  Travis." the whole game at Dayton in January.  It happens everywhere there are passionate fans who holler.  Mason would be a tough place to play if they ever sold it out.  That doesn't happen.  Dayton always sells out so its fan base is huge.  I would suspect Olean might be tough as well.  Not so much now that they ain''t the front runners.

As far as A10 coaches go, I think the worst is now Schmidt at Bonaventure.  Guy needs to sit down.  I'd harass the crap out of him if I were our students.  Used to be Danny Hurley but he is gone.  Dambrot doesn't sit either but his ship is sinking and he's more about imploring his mediocre talent than anything else.  Rumor has it Dambrot is on way out.  I also think Matt McCall at Umass and Billy Lange at St. Joe's are in trouble.  David Cox isn't doing well at Rhodey either.  

Question:  Are Bonaventures "iron men" all seniors?  Will they all graduate and move on?  Adaway.  Lofton. Welch.  Osunniyi. Holmes.  All are listed as seniors and with absolutely no one on that bench getting any development time, that roster is barrne next year.  Does that mean Schmidt moves on?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Gremio14 said:

I’m sorry but I found Willie’s Travis comment hilarious, almost as funny as slu72 Rashad/Chinese hypersonic missile analogy.  I’m still cracking up!

Travis is becoming widely hated around the league.  My brothers told me the Mason fans were working him over.  I see this as a good thing….think about who are the coaches we Chaifetz folks hurled the most flak at this year…Pearl and Pitino….

I hope Ford getting heckled around the league isn't for the same reasons the two coaches you mentioned are (I remember those discussions here), but they win a lot of basketball games. 

Gremio14 likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...