The Bills over Day by 4

[A10Ref]

15 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Some are posting things that lead you to believe that they are not coming and plan to stay home to watch and drink - if so shame.  The roads will be cleared by tomorrow.

If you have a ticket, get to the dang game. The more white shirts in the crowd, the less red. 

[slufan13]

And this should go without saying but there are a lot of people (including those on this board) who refuse to wear the white shirt. So put your goddamn shirt on or at least wear white!

[billiken_roy]

4 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

And this should go without saying but there are a lot of people (including those on this board) who refuse to wear the white shirt. So put your goddamn shirt on or at least wear white!

this has been an annual b!tch of mine as well.  why why wont the slu fans just take the shirt and put it over the top of whatever french design prize winning dress they must be wearing?   immediately following the game, feel free to take it off and resume your previous high fashion look (your opinion not other real billiken fans).   come on man.  do your part.   wear the shirt.  or as 13 says, just wear white to the game.

[joe_davola]

Bloody Marys starting at 10am.  Going to get messy.  I'll be wearing my white (most likely will spill stains on it, however)

[slufan13]

7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

this has been an annual b!tch of mine as well.  why why wont the slu fans just take the shirt and put it over the top of whatever french design prize winning dress they must be wearing?   immediately following the game, feel free to take it off and resume your previous high fashion look (your opinion not other real billiken fans).   come on man.  do your part.   wear the shirt.  or as 13 says, just wear white to the game.

I have had people tell me with a straight face that they will absolutely not wear the white shirt because you don't wear white between Labor Day and Memorial Day. They have told me that it's just a poor decision by SLU to hand out a shirt like that. 

[The Wiz]

4 hours ago, BilliesBy40 said:

You may be right, but Team Rankings website claims it is running thousands of simulations and it gives a separate percentage for chance to get an auto-bid (Davidson is 18%; SLU is 20%). Davidson has a better resume today and an easier remaining schedule. How do you figure that adds up to SLU being better positioned than Davidson?
 

I love your work, Wiz. I still think you have been overly bullish about our chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Good question. First , you are correct. TR does run thousands of simulations as do all the other metric services listed above in BAB's post.  The problem is a lot of services run teams chances in a vacuum.  They project results just for that team and then patch it together with the other teams  and you get something that doesn't make sense.   I have not verified any of the numbers in TR but 79% is too high for Dav to get a bid and 18%  is too low if you are talking about  a Bills bid.

Bill James, the father of sports probability used to talk about a team that was just 5 %  better than the rest of the teams. In a 162 game baseball  season , many computers came up with a winning season of 89 games ...ie 55% of the games. In reality, the teams that were slightly better won over 100 games.  How could that be ?  Because they were just slightly better for the whole season...they were better than the other  teams EACH game. They had a chance to win every game because every day they were just slightly better.  This is rough thing for a computer to deal with....running thousands  of simulations for each team and then trying to cobble them together to forecast a giant end result. In the A-10 , the team that is just slightly better would show up as a 10 win team.  In reality, that team would win 14 -16 games and  take the championship.

As far as optimism goes, I would say I am not more optimistic I just appear to be more optimistic. That is because my model picks up trends earlier.   One of the things , you will notice now , is that many of the ranking services including the NET tracker are starting to close the gap with me. They are now getting closer to where I am.  By the end of the season we will be close.  Nothing unusual. It happens every year. Some years it is more exaggerated and then I seem to be "way too optimistic".  But it always comes together at the end.

One season that stands out to me, was the 2011-12 season during the Majerus years.  We had just finished a disastrous season...10-19. People approached 2011-12 cautiously.   It was just after New Years 2012 , when there was an OMG...I had run the Bills improving numbers from the OOC schedule and it came up with the Bills as an A+ team.  A+ means that we are a top 25 team...in this case, we were 18th ITN.   That January I took the wrath from the Board...The Bills were ranked 90-100 by many services...some posters were willing to "give" me 80s.  Well as we all know the season finished 26-4 (ranked as high as 10th AP) with some nice Dancing at the end. The detractors wound up eating crow and the other computer models had gotten on board too by mid to   late  Feb.

 Bottom line....We are the best team in the A-10 as of Feb 4 and we have been for awhile. Is this going to be like 2012 ...No ...we are A-  and there is no dominant team in the A-10. We have the best Chance to Dance right now.  Enjoy it.

Go Bills

[billiken_roy]

4 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I have had people tell me with a straight face that they will absolutely not wear the white shirt because you don't wear white between Labor Day and Memorial Day. They have told me that it's just a poor decision by SLU to hand out a shirt like that. 

pure arrogance if that is what a billiken fan told you.   we arent at a g.d. gala of some sort.   we are at a college basketball game. 

[dlarry]

11 minutes ago, joe_davola said:

Bloody Marys starting at 10am.  Going to get messy.  I'll be wearing my white (most likely will spill stains on it, however)

The white shirt with Bloody Mary stains will be pure intimidation!

The look of blood on your shirt will most definitely scare the Dayton team!

[Taj79]

Dayton remains the same team they were in January.  All Holmes can seem to do is dunk.  It is no surprise he is shooting 10th in the nation from the floor.  Malachi Smith continually go to his right.  If he comes to his left, he will likely pass the ball; if he goes to the right, you are open to a pass or the layup.  Force him left.  Against VCU, VCU played without leading scorer Vince Williams.  As I argued with the banned lesterquarles, VCU is skills-challenged; losing Williams was pretty much the kiss of doom for them.  Still, a 30 point loss at home is pretty much a b*tch=slap no matter how you look at it.  

Holmes made eight shots against VCU.  By the play-by-play, at least six were dunks.  He'd better be shooting at a high percentage.  I haven't seen him do anything else but the same can be said for Okoro.  In the VCU game, Camera went off from three, making four of five increasing his threes made total for the season from 8 to 12.  I like out defense with any of Thatch, Hargrove or Nesbitt on him.  Okoro and Linssen should get Holmes.  Again, he has displayed no offense game outside of dunks.  Collins gets Smith.  The guy that beat us bad in Dayton was Kobe Elvis.  Yet against VCU he was 0 for 3 from deep.  Outside of Camera and a game ending three from Nwokeji, the rest of the team made two threes.  VCU didn't score the last 2:36 of the first half and opened the second with another 2:16 dry spell as well.  By then, the deficit grew to 20 and with 48 points, it was doubtful VCU could score that many for the rest of the game.  If we shutter Elvis, th enext guy to shut down is Brea.  And you can't lose Blakeney.  I think we can run them into the ground if we so desire.  

With Weaver out, Smith is their only dribbling point guard.  We have Collins, Williams, Jones and Nesbitt to hassle him.  We can even throw Strickland at him for a few minutes.  I'd work his ass off.

[BilliesBy40]

@The Wiz Thanks for the dialogue. I sure hope you are right!

[cheeseman]

36 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I have had people tell me with a straight face that they will absolutely not wear the white shirt because you don't wear white between Labor Day and Memorial Day. They have told me that it's just a poor decision by SLU to hand out a shirt like that. 

So they never wear a white dress shirt with a suit?  I doubt it - they are just BSing.

[Old guy]

After the last game at George Mason, I have no doubt you are correct in saying we are the best team in A10. All we have to do now is to prove it. This starts by beating Dayton tomorrow. I think we are positioned to do so.

[billiken_roy]

15 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

So they never wear a white dress shirt with a suit?  I doubt it - they are just BSing.

you mean men preach this b.s. as well?   i just assumed 13 was talking women.

[HoosierPal]

55 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I have had people tell me with a straight face that they will absolutely not wear the white shirt because you don't wear white between Labor Day and Memorial Day. They have told me that it's just a poor decision by SLU to hand out a shirt like that. 

So I shouldn't wear my white patent leather shoes?  I usually break them out at Easter.

[NoCoBillsFan]

On the topic of attendance, students were required to register ahead of the game bc of the expected crowd. They are opening up 400 additional seats for students and all tickets have been claimed, so should be 1,500 students there

[drkelsey55]

The T- on the chair is always too small. I will be wearing my Homefield white T over my 

Homefield hoodie under my Fred Thach jacket.

Go Bills!!

 

 

[Taj79]

Best in the A10?  I want to say yes and the convincing is still going on what with two road wins now under our belt.  That is a two-win place we weren't at five days ago.  So I'm on the upswing.  

For those new to this space, I tried to handicap the A10 race every year about this time.  What I have learned is such an endeavor is futile.  Some team will inexplicably eat another team (see Rhodey at Fordham).  Somebody will jump up and smack down a league leader (us at La Salle last year).  Things happen you never see coming (Dayton wins at VCU by THIRTY).  But the key is always to get a top four finish so you don't have to play four day in a row come Brooklyn or DC. 

So trying to handicap that,  here goes:

The top four spots are defined now as Davidson, Dayton, Us and VCU.  But VCU has three conference losses and Mason only 2.  Bonaventure lurks nearby with three losses as well.  So to me, it's six vying for four spots with Richmond a distant afterthought.

Davidson:  currently 8 and 1.  Remaining schedule:  SLU and Mason come to them, they close at Dayton.  Only playing three contenders in their remaining 9 games.  They also go to Jekyll-and-Hyde Rhode Island.  Strength:  disciplined team playing McKillop's system.  They shoot threes.  Foster Loyer a much better floor general than Kellan Grady.  Weaknesses:  only really go 3.5 deep.  Loyer, Lee and Brajkovic are solid and steady.  Mike Jones can get white hot from three.  Sam Mennenga remains a mystery.  No bench as Huffman and Boachie-Yiadom only provide brief respites for the starters.  Just about a lock for a top four if not #1.  I'd be stunned if they lost more than one more.  Looks like 16 and 2.

Dayton:  Currently 7 and 2.  Remaining schedule:  us, at Rhode Island, at Richmond and the Davidson season ender.  I list Rhodey here because that is usually a pretty good game with Rhodey success and then Richmond at Richmond.  Strengths:  decent defense with just enough offense to win.  Trashing VCU will do wonders for youthful confidence.  We need to slap them down.  Weakness:  youth, exterior shooting, turnovers, free throw shooting.  Smith is the only true point guard on the roster.  Seems they can be pressed and with youth comes turnovers.  Holmes is shooting 57% from the line.  Short bench with Weaver out hurt.  Even if you get the four games in question to be losses, Dayton still finishes at 11 and 7.  Split them and it's 13 and 5.  

VCU:  Currently 6 and 3.  Remaining schedule:  home-and-home with Mason, home to the Bonnies and us at Chaifetz.  They also host a city rivalry game against Richmond who they already beat 64 to 62.  Strengths:  HAVOC.  Although it's not the Havoc of old.  Weaknesses:  basketball skills.  Only Ace Baldwin and Vince WIlliams score over 10 ppg.  While some would say they are deep, I remain unimpressed.  They almost blew the Davidson game.  Amazing how teams can turn it on and erase double digits deficits late.  Sounds like us.  Frankly, maybe two more losses coming home.  Finish at 13 and 5 or 12 and 6 (if Richmond bites them --- the WIlliams injury ios key.  How long is out?)

Mason:  currently 4 and 2.  Remaining schedule:  @ Richmond, VCU, @VCU and @ Davidson.  Thisd woudl appear to be at least three more losses.  Then factor in the Mason has already lost at Geedubya and there is a decent chance upsets occur against them here in this schedule.  They have to go to La Salle, go to the Joeys and go to Fordham so who knows.  Strengths:  new coach Kim English and program revival.  Weaknesses:  they only go 4 deep and employ a fifth, Xavier Johnson as the de facto point.  Their four are however likely better than about the entire rosters of six other teams.  Man, when the A10 is down, it's down!  I don't have enough evidence to rule yay or nay on this group but my inclination is to say they will fade.

Bonaventure:  Currently 4 and 3.  Remaining schedule:  @ Richmond tonight (ESPN2), home and home with SLU, @ VCU and home with Richmond again along with hosting URI.  Seems to me the schedule maker really likes Bonaventure more years than not.  Strengths:  veteran leadership.  Weaknesses:  it's a five man rotation with absolutely no bench help available.  Linton Brown, a JUCO All-American, remains out with COVID issues.  I believe they have to break down sooner or later.  Still, if they don't, I can see maybe three more losses to blemish their record and take them to a 12 and 6 or 11 and 7 record.

Which leaves us.  Currently 6 and 2.  The focus is on the schedule.  We have the most brutal closing schedule out there.  We have feasted on the weak sisters of this conference.  Key games include Saturday with Dayton, the two with the Bonnies, at Davidson, @ URI, @ Richmond and closing @ VCU.  That is seven total games where we must defend the home fires (3 key games) steal one or two on the road and suffer no cannibalization from the league's bottom feeders La Salle and St. Joe's.  

Based on the above, the only lock I will administer is to Davidson but our schedule will make it challenging for us to get a top four.  And as it satnds, La Salle is the ultimate trap game.  At their place of course.

[cheeseman]

1 hour ago, drkelsey55 said:

The T- on the chair is always too small. I will be wearing my Homefield white T over my 

Homefield hoodie under my Fred Thach jacket.

Go Bills!!

 

 

Same problem - they really need to do more than just a medium and extra large to fit it over anything else you wear.

[slubillikens43]

1 hour ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

On the topic of attendance, students were required to register ahead of the game bc of the expected crowd. They are opening up 400 additional seats for students and all tickets have been claimed, so should be 1,500 students there

I think they released another 250 student tickets within the last hour

[Cowboy II]

-Wiz, love your stuff, but you might consider using percentage points (pp) as opposed to percents when discussing changes in Chance to Dance as SVU didn't move 11% they moved 11pp

-we close the conf season hosting VCU

-what will CFord change for tomorrow versus what we did 3.5 weeks ago? press to wear out Smith? we can figure this to be a no

-at least 620 tickets have been sold in the past 2.5 days. 181 of them in the lower bowl, still many seats available in the upper deck sections priced $45 and higher, I hope we get them sold in the next 22hours, perhaps a last minute sale? just shy of 9900 sold, let's have a great time!

[NoCoBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-Wiz, love your stuff, but you might consider using percentage points (pp) as opposed to percents when discussing changes in Chance to Dance as SVU didn't move 11% they moved 11pp

-we close the conf season hosting VCU

-what will CFord change for tomorrow versus what we did 3.5 weeks ago? press to wear out Smith? we can figure this to be a no

-at least 620 tickets have been sold in the past 2.5 days. 181 of them in the lower bowl, still many seats available in the upper deck sections priced $45 and higher, I hope we get them sold in the next 22hours, perhaps a last minute sale? just shy of 9900 sold, let's have a great time!

I think a big difference will be how we handle pressure on Yuri. Early in the George Mason game, they tried to take Yuri out of it with pressure. We responded by having Nesbitt bring the ball up, which he did for more than a few possessions. And we really didnt lose any offensive efficiency as a result, as we were able to score fairly easily early on. If we can replicate that we’ll be successful I think

[bauman]

3 hours ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

On the topic of attendance, students were required to register ahead of the game bc of the expected crowd. They are opening up 400 additional seats for students and all tickets have been claimed, so should be 1,500 students there

I hope there isn't a food giveaway or if there is, that you get it as you leave the building, once the game is over.  I am so sick of seeing the student section filled at the beginning of games only to lose at least half of the students at halftime.  It really hacks me off, especially at the games where student athletes are honored at halftime and immediately leave. 

[The Wiz]

20 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-Wiz, love your stuff, but you might consider using percentage points (pp) as opposed to percents when discussing changes in Chance to Dance as SVU didn't move 11% they moved 11pp

Point(s) taken...change it

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

21 minutes ago, bauman said:

I hope there isn't a food giveaway or if there is, that you get it as you leave the building, once the game is over.  I am so sick of seeing the student section filled at the beginning of games only to lose at least half of the students at halftime.  It really hacks me off, especially at the games where student athletes are honored at halftime and immediately leave. 

I always wonder how our student engagement compares to other schools of similar size and D1 success. I always see the core group of SLUnatics and some die hards at every game, but you'd think because we're known as a basketball (also soccer) school, you'd see more consistent student engagement swayed by spirit and not giveaways (which I loved as a student, but wasn't a selling point).

[billiken_roy]

everytime i get mad at the students i think back to my slu days.    it was me and about 7 other students (one of which was bay area billiken) with our free end zone tickets.   now that was pathetic student support.  so i pull back on any current day student stuff.   the fact we are bringing out A LOT of students saturday is awesome.  if they want to leave at halftime, i am betting we still have more than 8 there by the end of the game