The Wiz Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 First, a tip o' the cap to Yuri with one the greatest Bills games of all time.... Keep it going. Chance 2 Dance The Bills......58%.. ...dn 1 pt Day..............51%.....up 11 pts VCU...............43%.....dn 14 pts Dav...............40%.......dn 2 pts Bills did what they were supposed to do ...little change... With Day win over VCU...Day popped up , VCU slipped away ...still looks like a 2 bid conf, at best I hope nobody put their bourbon away...because we will have another nail biter. It's now on to the large winner in the Dance pool....Day....The Flyers will be arriving with Big Mo (momentum). But The Bills will be looking for some payback after a less than stellar performance at Day. As you can see by the chart above , this is the big game of the week in the A-10. Dayton comes in with a strong defense. They will try to keep us from scoring and rebounding. in a low point total game. Let's see what we are dealing with on the report card.... ...................SLU.....................Day..........................SLU.........................Day .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................D..............................C+............................A+ 17th ITN FG%...............B.......................A-.............................B+............................B+ 3P%..............B+......................C+.............................B..............................C+ FT%...............A+ 18th ITN......D+................................................................. Reb...............A.........................C+..............................B+..........................A+ 4th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...FT%.....Def.....none Down....Off...none.....Def...PPG...Reb Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...10th...dn Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st... unch...Nationally, this has been a 2 man race with a guy from Oakland U..Yuri has now opened up some space between 1st & 2nd Stls......Collins....15th....up FT%...Jimerson...69th...up PPG...Jimerson...85th...dn Dou-Dou....Collins...32nd...up FG%....Okoro....65th...up Off Reb...Okoro...50th...up FTA/FGA....Linssen...48th...up Asst/TO ratio...Jones...46th...up Day FG%...Holmes...10th Stls...Smith...50th Assts...Smith...48th Blks...Holmes...22nd Injury/ Illness Weaver (G)......Ques...Wrist...2/3/22...Weaver has missed the last 2 games...it is uncertain if he will play against SLU. If he doesn't play, Day FT% grade drops to a D. Keys to the game....This will be a low scoring, defensive struggle... a perfect game for them would be like 68-63 (hmm,,,that seems familiar)...If Weaver doesn't play they will go with 7 players. Key Matchups...Yuri and Smith...Smith is like an imitation Yuri...assists, steals, some pts , some rebs ..good player but the real Yuri is better in all categories. Yuri wins this matchup. Next...Okoro and Holmes ...The Battle of the Big Boys...Holmes has an extra inch ...Okoro an extra 15 lbs.......Holmes has the edge in blocks ...Okoro in Reb...Holmes has the edge in FG% but in recent weeks Okoro has matched him. Toss up...add Linssen with additional shooting % and rebounding ...advantage SLU WWN2D2W.... 46/36/77... Might be more important to make the slash as there may be less shots this game....also less rebs. The Bills need an extra 4+ rebs....TOs 11...this may sound repetitive but it's working...in the last 4 games the Bills have averaged 9.75 TOs /gm. Weakness alert...Day is vulnerable to TOs ...pressure them and get the TO spread up to 3+. Hold Camera , Holmes and Smith to 25pts. Brea and Elvis (is he still alive?) are their 3 pt guys...hold them to five 3PA. Smith is their FT guy...don't send him to the charity stripe. Score 70...the more we score over 70 the better chance we have to win. Bottom line...Keep them away from the basket...on both ends. They are A- from 2pt range and A on defensive rebs. Score more and we will keep the Flyers grounded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty Light Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 32 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I hope nobody put their bourbon away...because we will have another nail biter. I have been saving a bottle of Jim Beam Black for this game. Hopefully we wear the black unis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraz Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Are we really 18% more likely to make the NCAAs than Davidson? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Nobody beats the Whiz!!! BillikenBeep likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Fraz said: Are we really 18% more likely to make the NCAAs than Davidson? On Feb 3 , based on the Bills remaining schedule and the way we have been playing...yes we have an 18% lead. Plus Day and VCU have better chances too... The computer doesn't think that Dav has shown enough to this point. When you do what you are supposed to do that is a sign that it has the team correctly measured. Dav has been moving little on the chart ..up or down. Right now the model shows they are where they belong until they show something better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliesBy40 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Fraz said: Are we really 18% more likely to make the NCAAs than Davidson? Team Rankings shows a much different picture: Davidson: 79% VCU: 33% SLU: 22% Dayton: 20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 No bourbon for us, we had a bottle of Bordeaux, and probably will do another one for Dayton. From my point of view, once we defeat Dayton there is little to keep us from winning the conference. I know Dayton is a good, capable team and that this may well be a hard game, however being at the Chaifetz we do not have to worry that much about the refs. Our pregame stats are better that Dayton's, this is what Team rankings show at this time, I will post the Vegas line and number of stars of confidence when I get them. Green numbers show advantage, note that the difference is minimal in some cases. Offensive Stat Comparison Stat DAY SLU Points/Game 68.6 77.6 Avg Score Margin +8.3 +9.1 Assists/Game 14.3 14.5 Total Rebounds/Gm 35.8 39.5 Effective FG % 53.1% 49.9% Off Rebound % 29.5% 33.9% FTA/FGA 0.317 0.346 Turnover % 18.5% 15.8% Defensive Stat Comparison Stat DAY SLU Opp Points/Game 60.3 68.6 Opp Effective FG % 47.2% 47.1% Off Rebounds/Gm 8.2 11.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.5 24.8 Blocks/Game 4.0 3.4 Steals/Game 6.1 7.3 Personal Fouls/Gm 13.8 18.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I hope the weather allows us to pack the Fetz. for this game. We need to come out in force to drown out the SVU crew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 And what makes you think they'll show up ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brighton said: And what makes you think they'll show up ? Nobody in the A 10 travels like Dayton. They will be there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 BillikenBeep likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 29 minutes ago, bauman said: Nobody in the A 10 travels like Dayton. They will be there. They’re not that dedicated when there’s a snow storm sweeping through the Midwest and Northeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 what's over & under for sweater vest attendees? Fraz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCoBillsFan Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, bauman said: Nobody in the A 10 travels like Dayton. They will be there. Last time they played here with fans there wasn’t too much red in the building. There was inclement weather that day as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, BilliesBy40 said: Team Rankings shows a much different picture: Davidson: 79% VCU: 33% SLU: 22% Dayton: 20% Team Rankings assumes the Selection Committee is giving out the bids tonight. The only sure winner for a bid is the A-10 tourney winner. Those TR probabilities say there is only 1 bid and 1 winner ....a heavy favorite...ie Dav is almost a lock to win the A-10 tourney....Or if you want to go a different direction ...Dav is a lock to win the A-10 by winning all the rest of the conference games. 79% probability on either of those things happening is unlikely for a team that has lost to NMSU (on neutral court ) a good team (equivalent to G Mason) but not something a lock team would do. Split with VCU ...winning and losing both games by 2pts...After those 2 games, VCU gets smashed by Dayton by 30 pts. Again not the kind of scenario you would expect from a sure thing A-10 team. Not to mention , a loss to SF (apologies to BAB). When I punch in USF to see what team they would be equivalent to....SLU comes up. So if SLU = USF that equals bad news for Davidson as a sure thing. Does that mean Dav can't win a bid ...No...they are one of 4 teams in in the A-10 that does have a reasonable chance (40%)...I am just saying 79% C2D on Feb 3 caused my computer to start chuckling again. A10Ref and Fraz like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I have no issues about what you say regarding Team Rankings. I agree they tend to simplify things in their thinking, and approach the Dance in terms of who is likely to win the league's tournament. They also follow the Vegas line which is determined by how many people bet on a given game (large numbers). I agree there is a whole lot more to your model than that. However, look at it from their point of view, they prepare an analysis/prediction for every game in basically every sport, both at college and at professional level. No wonder they have to keep things simple and free of nuances in order to do what they do with enough accuracy to get people to pay for their services. I am certain that your model is better than theirs just because you are dealing primarily with one team, one sport, and one league. Yes, there is the off conference part of the season that requires work with other teams and other leagues, which is more complex of course. But your model is not dealing with all teams, all sports, and at all levels as they do. I like TR's approach for many reasons, one of them being their reliance on the Vegas line since this introduces the "large numbers" into their calculations. This makes their model more accurate but from a different point of view than your model's. I am happy to report their predictions, particularly since they tend to agree with yours quite frequently. This agreement from separate methodologies reinforces the results of your model. I agree no one has a lock on anything at this level in the season. I also see Dayton as a more difficult opponent than Davidson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Sagarin has SLU by 3 in its overall Rating, but UD by 2 in its Recent Rating. Haslametrics has the score as SLU 67.18 Dayton 64.23 = SLU by 3. SLU's best rating of the 7 I'm aware is the ESPN BPI, where SLU is 45; UD is 54. SLU is 49 in Sagarin, UD 55. In the all important NET, through games of 2/2/22, SLU was 59, UD 60. Pomeroy through games of 2/3/22 has SLU at 57, UD at 56. The averages of the 7 ratings are SLU 54, UD 58.4. These two teams are evenly matched. This is a very big game for SLU to win. I'd call it a must win. SLU must protect the home court. Home losses hurt worse in the ratings than road and neutral losses. Home wins count less in the ratings, but are still needed. SLU is 28-39 all-time vs. UD, has lost 5 straight and 14 of the last 17. It is time for those trends to change. SLU is 16-13 vs. UD in St. Louis. The last SLU win in the series was the grounding of the Flyers in the A10 Tournament quarterfinals in 2019, 64-55. It looks like St. Louis had a real blizzard back there to match the Billiken Blizzard. Hopefully, the Billiken fans will still get there to provide a real home court advantage to Team Blue. The forecast for Saturday is for sunny skies, high of 28, low of 1. This one is for the prestigious Arch-Baron Cup. The Cup needs to be retaken from enemy hands. The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 hours ago, Brighton said: They’re not that dedicated when there’s a snow storm sweeping through the Midwest and Northeast. i-70 will be clear by tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 11 hours ago, Matty Light said: I have been saving a bottle of Jim Beam Black for this game. Hopefully we wear the black unis. Billiken Blizzard game. I’m assuming they are going to wear white. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Dayton has a large alumni base in St. Louis. They don’t need to travel from Ohio to have a large number at the Fetz. Box and Won, Crewsorlose and bauman like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliesBy40 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 9 hours ago, The Wiz said: Team Rankings assumes the Selection Committee is giving out the bids tonight. The only sure winner for a bid is the A-10 tourney winner. Those TR probabilities say there is only 1 bid and 1 winner ....a heavy favorite...ie Dav is almost a lock to win the A-10 tourney....Or if you want to go a different direction ...Dav is a lock to win the A-10 by winning all the rest of the conference games. 79% probability on either of those things happening is unlikely for a team that has lost to NMSU (on neutral court ) a good team (equivalent to G Mason) but not something a lock team would do. Split with VCU ...winning and losing both games by 2pts...After those 2 games, VCU gets smashed by Dayton by 30 pts. Again not the kind of scenario you would expect from a sure thing A-10 team. Not to mention , a loss to SF (apologies to BAB). When I punch in USF to see what team they would be equivalent to....SLU comes up. So if SLU = USF that equals bad news for Davidson as a sure thing. Does that mean Dav can't win a bid ...No...they are one of 4 teams in in the A-10 that does have a reasonable chance (40%)...I am just saying 79% C2D on Feb 3 caused my computer to start chuckling again. You may be right, but Team Rankings website claims it is running thousands of simulations and it gives a separate percentage for chance to get an auto-bid (Davidson is 18%; SLU is 20%). Davidson has a better resume today and an easier remaining schedule. How do you figure that adds up to SLU being better positioned than Davidson? I love your work, Wiz. I still think you have been overly bullish about our chance of making the NCAA tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someoneelse Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Bills by 4? I'd settle for 1. jonny karate likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Some are posting things that lead you to believe that they are not coming and plan to stay home to watch and drink - if so shame. The roads will be cleared by tomorrow. A10Ref likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 This is a Q1 game for Dayton, Q2 for the Bills. Huge for both teams, but 'huger' for the Flyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty Light Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, dlarry said: Billiken Blizzard game. I’m assuming they are going to wear white. I guess that went over my head. Was thinking that was a weather forecast. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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