The Wiz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Chance 2 Dance The Bills....50% VCU..........54% Day............44% Dav............43% 3 takeaways 1...Still no team has been able to pull away from the pack...it still is anyone's bid 2...Things are 50-50...For the Bills receiving a Dance Chance and for the A-10... whether they will receive a 2nd bid. 3...The VCU win over Dav should not have been a surprise. Even with out a spread , the Dance bid showed a 49% to 45% edge going into the VCU game...not a big edge ..say a couple of pts. The Bills need to get out of the Twilight Zone area where funny things happen ...Let's get up to 64%+ to have a meaningful C2D. Assist Yuri Before we get to the game, we need to give a Tip o' the Cap to Yuri for his outstanding accomplishment ...Becoming the all time assist leader at SLU and moving up to #1 ITN in assists for the season. But the best may be yet to come. I ran some numbers and the computer shows that Yuri is on track to break the all time Collegiate record for Assists in D1 (1076...held by Bobby Hurley ..Duke 90-93) with 1080. This assumes he plays in the remaining games this year and the next 2 years...plus 3 post season games( A-10 tourney games ..1 /season) at the rate he has been playing this year. Long way to go but it is possible. OK...let's get back to the matter at hand ...the next game at Duq...Let see how they grade out. ...................SLU.....................Duq..........................SLU.........................Duq .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................D..............................C+.........................D+ FG%...............B.......................D-.............................B............................F 3P%..............B+......................C...............................B............................F-..15th WITN FT%...............A........................C-................................................................. Reb...............A.........................C-..............................A-..........................D- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...none.....Def.....none Down....Off...3P%.....Def...FG%...3P% Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...5th...dn FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...5th...dn Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st... up...He's back on top again Stls......Collins....37th....unch FT%...Jimerson...73rd...up PPG...Jimerson...56th...up Dou-Dou....Collins...62nd...up....Okoro...98th...new Duq Blks...Williams...29th Injury/ Illness Rotroff...Late Feb....Foot...1/20/22...Rotroff is sidelined with a foot injury for 4-6 weeks Gunn...Out for the Season...Ankle...1/15/22...High ankle sprain , will not return this season The Dukes don't grade out very well. ..a below average offense (but better than GW ) and a bad defense with not much rebounding. Keys to the game... Another PIG game...Keep the focus and energy level up. They don't defend the 3. Give the ball to Jimerson and let him flood them from the ark...I mean the arc. They go only 7 deep with 5 who can score. Their tallest player who will see meaningful time is a 6'8" guard. Rebound, don't give them 2nd chances.. If they bother Jimerson there are plenty of other ways to score off this weak defense. WWN2D2W.... 46/36/77...making the 3's will be the key to making the slash... Rebs 7+.....Let's go for our 3rd straight 8 in TOs but no more than 11. The Dukes don't turn the ball over much, so keeping TOs down is important. Hold Duqs top 3 scorers to 27pts. Put pressure on them...it will not only disrupt them but wear them down with a short bench. Don't let T Williams block you. ...no more than 1 blk for him. Bottom line...We need to move off of 50-50. A solid road win will help...Beat Duquesne and we will make a gain. CBFan likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Chance 2 Dance Dav............43% Could you elaborate on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, wgstl said: Could you elaborate on this? The computer doesn't like what it sees at Davidson. A very nice win at AL but the rest...meh...Wins over Penn ...East Carolina ...Robert Morris...Will & Mary...Radford and a loss to NMSU..a close win against a so- so Rich and a squeaker against RI at the Dav homecourt didn't help their case. And of course last night the model picked VCU even though the game was at Dav...It is telling that in the "big" game Dav only dropped from 45% to 43% after the loss. It means to the computer that Dav was "priced right." As I mentioned above, the model doesn't see a clear leader in the A-10...it sees the "group of 4" of which the winner will emerge. There is a 50-50 chance that 2 of the 4 ( if there are 2 bids --also 50-50)will get a bid so it may turn out that Dav still dances. At this time there is nothing bad or damaging to be at 43% when there is no clear winner. If you are not listed because you are below 40% now...those are the teams that should be worried. The bottom line is that the computer has a different outlook then say the AP Poll. If I would have told the computer (even before yesterday's VCU game) that Dav was 25th ITN, it would have started laughing. I am sure after the VCU game , it is having a chuckle. A10Ref, CBFan, billikenbill and 3 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: If I would have told the computer (even before yesterday's VCU game) that Dav was 25th ITN, it would have started laughing. I am sure after the VCU game , it is having a chuckle. Do you ever give the computer a cookie if it gets the spread exactly correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 BAB doesn't like what he's seen in Davidson either. That team can be had, lost to USF-CA in my presence, lost last night at home vs. VCU. What Davidson does have is a veteran, sly fox of a Coach. As for SLU @ Duquesne, Sagarin concurs with The Wiz, SLU -9. Sagarin's Recent Ratings have SLU -7. NET: SLU 71, DUQ 236; Sagarin: SLU 59, DUQ 209; ESPN BPI: SLU 55, DUQ 234; RPI: SLU 79, DUQ 268; Pomeroy: SLU 74, DUQ 226; Massey: SLU 60, DUQ 228. Average of the six ratings: SLU 66.3, DUQ 233.5. SLU should win this game. But SLU should have also won @UMass. Conference road games can be treacherous. Here's hoping the good Billikens show up in Pittsburgh and bring home a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 42 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said: Do you ever give the computer a cookie if it gets the spread exactly correct? I asked the computer if it wanted a cookie...It said it doesn't accept cookies but it would like to have some chips (micro , please) willie and BrettJollyComedyHour like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, The Wiz said: The computer doesn't like what it sees at Davidson. A very nice win at AL but the rest...meh...Wins over Penn ...East Carolina ...Robert Morris...Will & Mary...Radford and a loss to NMSU..a close win against a so- so Rich and a squeaker against RI at the Dav homecourt didn't help their case. And of course last night the model picked VCU even though the game was at Dav...It is telling that in the "big" game Dav only dropped from 45% to 43% after the loss. It means to the computer that Dav was "priced right." As I mentioned above, the model doesn't see a clear leader in the A-10...it sees the "group of 4" of which the winner will emerge. There is a 50-50 chance that 2 of the 4 ( if there are 2 bids --also 50-50)will get a bid so it may turn out that Dav still dances. At this time there is nothing bad or damaging to be at 43% when there is no clear winner. If you are not listed because you are below 40% now...those are the teams that should be worried. The bottom line is that the computer has a different outlook then say the AP Poll. If I would have told the computer (even before yesterday's VCU game) that Dav was 25th ITN, it would have started laughing. I am sure after the VCU game , it is having a chuckle. 45 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: BAB doesn't like what he's seen in Davidson either. That team can be had, lost to USF-CA in my presence, lost last night at home vs. VCU. What Davidson does have is a veteran, sly fox of a Coach. As for SLU @ Duquesne, Sagarin concurs with The Wiz, SLU -9. Sagarin's Recent Ratings have SLU -7. NET: SLU 71, DUQ 236; Sagarin: SLU 59, DUQ 209; ESPN BPI: SLU 55, DUQ 234; RPI: SLU 79, DUQ 268; Pomeroy: SLU 74, DUQ 226; Massey: SLU 60, DUQ 228. Average of the six ratings: SLU 66.3, DUQ 233.5. SLU should win this game. But SLU should have also won @UMass. Conference road games can be treacherous. Here's hoping the good Billikens show up in Pittsburgh and bring home a winner. Discussion of model predictions vs reality is a complex subject. The models can certainly be more accurate than polled expert opinions, which incorporates individual biases and subjective evaluations. Models can determine outcomes with a reasonable level of accuracy, as long as the outcomes are determined by the factors analyzed by the model. If the outcome of a game is determined by factors outside those analyzed by the model, then the result is an "anomaly." That means the outcome cannot be explained by the model. This is exactly what happened with the first UMass game. There may be differences between the level of winning a model predicts and the actual level of winning. This does not necessarily affect the win/loss outcome. For example, in the recent game against GW, which the Wiz's model predicted would be won by SLU by 19 pts, we won but by only 13 pts. The cause for this deficiency was that the deep bench players in the SLU bench were used during last few minutes of the game. This is a factor that was not considered by the Wiz's model which affected the final score of the game, but not its outcome. Models are useful tools with reasonable accuracy but they can only approximate future outcomes that are caused by the factors analyzed by the model. In my opinion the Wiz's model is really a very good predictive tool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'll byte did you feed the machine? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, almaman said: I'll byte did you feed the machine? I tried to feed it but it had lost it's appetite. It had a virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 y does every thread got 2 about the Wutang flu:)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 hours ago, The Wiz said: I asked the computer if it wanted a cookie...It said it doesn't accept cookies but it would like to have some chips (micro , please) Now they're going to wonder why I'm laughing to myself at work. Never change, Wiz! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I have watched Duquesne play Hofstra, Weber State, DePaul, Umass, Fordham, Dayton, the Bonnies and a little of the Joeys. I think Dambrot is on the hot seat right behind McCall at Umass. Duquesne can go 8 deep but with Rotroff hurt, that will knock them down one. Sixth and seventh men Acuff and Okani might get minutes, but don't score much. I think we offered Okani at one point ... could be wrong. The starters are three guards, one forward and one center and Williams isn't much of a center at 6'7". Easley, at forward, is also 6'7". Small lineup. They go strictly as they guards go ... notably Spears, Johnson and Ayers. All five go for about 11 to 12ppg with Johnson just under ten but I have seen Johnson go off if unchecked. He's a fire plug at 5'11", 185 and can launch anything just over the half court line. Amir Spears is the other frosh in the backcourt and is referred to as "Primo" Spears. Self-infatuation. I think his father gave him that nickname. But he thinks he is primetime for sure. Both are at times completely out of control and while that works to your favor most times, I have seen both take over games where they had no right doing so. This is a bad Duquesne team and its full of freshmen (Spears, Johnson) and transfers (Easley, Williams, Ayers). To me, this would be a loss worse than Umass. CBFan, Old guy and AGB91 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 hours ago, The Wiz said: I asked the computer if it wanted a cookie...It said it doesn't accept cookies but it would like to have some chips (micro , please) Well played The Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The Bills and I have something in common. This was one of their best games this year and this was one of my best even if the spread was off...the rest of the numbers came in on target. And when the numbers come in...we win. Before we go on , I would like to address something from a previous thread. (GW spread thread...post game analysis)... Again Bolded statements are from previous posts. This first statement was from a short rant I did on 3P shooting from 2 previous games.... 3P shooting...This is a good news /bad news issue. The good news is Jimerson is shooting a phenomenal 61.9% (13-21)...unbelievable... 38.4%+ is an A+.... The bad news is the rest of the team is shooting a dismal 7.1% (2-28)...to put this in context, 29% is an F-.... small sample size but wide divergent even for small samples. Again , it made no difference in either game but could pose a problem if it carries forward into games against better teams where we don't have as much leeway..... Well again there was good news and bad news today...The bad news was Jimerson didn't make any 3s (2-8) but the good news is the rest of the team stepped up and picked up the slack...4 other players sank 3s...6-16 (37.5%) Not only did that contribute to today's win but more importantly , it shows that the team doesn't have to depend on just 1 guy (Jimerson).... Let's hope this balanced attack continues. Now let's check the rest of the numbers from today's contest.... 46/36/77...actual 44/33/71...this was pretty close...1 more 3 and 1 more FT and the the slash looks like this...46/37.5/86....very close to the target slash before and after...a side note here... we only had 7 FTAs today vs 16 for for Duq...that was because we had 18 PF vs 11 for the Dukes...Duke must have been very well behaved today or ________ (fill in the blank). Fortunately, it didn't matter. Rebs 7+...We came in with 6 extra rebs.....I was hoping we would do a little better but we did what we were supposed to do....another made target...and again it didn't matter. Let's go for our 3rd straight 8 in TOs but no more than 11 . The Dukes don't turn the ball over much, so keeping TOs down is important ....Another stat that was just 1 off...in the last 4 games we games we have averaged 10 TOs...10.6 or less is A+. Now this stat was the important one...On the surface , it seems like we did what we were suppose to do BUT the difference was The Dukes who are usually good at protecting the ball caved under the Bills pressure and turned it over 20 times. How big was this?.... Points off TOs s 24-3 in favor of The Bills...and that was pretty much the difference in the extra point spread ...and what a difference. Hold Duqs top 3 scorers to 27pts. Put pressure on them...it will not only disrupt them but wear them down with a short bench. ..They scored 29...another good stat...Our defense was great and it worked...shut down Duq. Don't let T Williams block you... We didn't...Even though he is 29th ITN...he came up with zero...Excellent Bottom line...We need to move off of 50-50. A solid road win will help...Beat Duquesne and we will make a gain....Some will say this was a meaningless victory... While Duq may be a PIG team....the fact that we beat them big at their place will earn us some style points...read that as ...It will help our Net efficiency in the NET Tracker. Takeaways...this game will help the team move toward a goal I spoke about in an earlier thread...Consistency....TOs averaging around 10 recently and rebs averaging 40-50/gm..and the numbers smoothing out ...less volatility....and overall defense on the upswing...all point to good things for the BIlls future.. BrettJollyComedyHour, JettFlight5 and Adman like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Didn't Gibson hit a couple 3s during the 4 bomb stretch? He has really diversified his game and takes a beating from opposing defenders. More excellent work from you Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ya back to back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said: Didn't Gibson hit a couple 3s during the 4 bomb stretch? He has really diversified his game and takes a beating from opposing defenders. More excellent work from you Wiz. You are correct...thanks for pointing that out...sorry, I was looking at the reb column ORB-DRB...0-3.......the other numbers were correct....6-16 (37.5%) from the arc ...team 3P shooting sans Jimerson..... Jimerson went 2-8 (25%) from the arc...also, it doesn't change the point I was trying to make...which is Jimerson had an off day and the rest of team (4 players) stepped up and picked up the slack.... A balanced attack is important and a good thing...hope this continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: You are correct...thanks for pointing that out...sorry, I was looking at the reb column ORB-DRB...0-3.......the other numbers were correct....6-16 (37.5%) from the arc ...team 3P shooting sans Jimerson..... Jimerson went 2-8 (25%) from the arc...also, it doesn't change the point I was trying to make...which is Jimerson had an off day and the rest of team (4 players) stepped up and picked up the slack.... A balanced attack is important and a good thing...hope this continues. No worries at all...Insight into the games is well worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 As long as we’re correcting the Wiz - a rarity indeed - the Bills were 5-7 from the line for 71%, not 77%. Not that it really matters with such a small number of attempt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, juniorbill76 said: As long as we’re correcting the Wiz - a rarity indeed - the Bills were 5-7 from the line for 71%, not 77%. Not that it really matters with such a small number of attempt. Corrected...obviously a typo...in the next statement I say we need 1 more FT...if we were really at 77% on the actual we wouldn't have needed 1 more FT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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