GDT UMass part 2

[JohnnyJumpUp]

2 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

If someone has a video of Traore’s technical foul, post a link. At the time it looked really strange. Then all of a sudden, foul called. I meant to go back and look, but forgot.

[dlarry]

47 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I get your point and don't completely disagree. The thing with his 3 is it's so slow and flatfooted. On the other hand even if he's 0/3 and he's wide open for the 4th, do you want him to pass it up? I don't think I do. If you do what is the point where he starts passing up an open look? 0/2, 0/3, 0/4? 

It’s tough and I’m not sure there is a right answer.

I would say if he starts off 0-3 I don’t mind him shooting if the ball has been moved around and he’s wide open. 

If he’s 0-3 I don’t want him shooting 3s at the beginning of the shot clock or off the dribble. I wouldn’t want him flaring out behind the arc on odd man rushes. 
I would try and get him some looks inside and see if that can get him going. 

[AnkielBreakers]

3 minutes ago, dlarry said:

It’s tough and I’m not sure there is a right answer.

I would say if he starts off 0-3 I don’t mind him shooting if the ball has been moved around and he’s wide open. 

If he’s 0-3 I don’t want him shooting 3s at the beginning of the shot clock or off the dribble. I wouldn’t want him flaring out behind the arc on odd man rushes. 
I would try and get him some looks inside and see if that can get him going. 

He should let it fly. He shot 42% last year. He started off hot and then cooled down, and he will heat up at the end.

One of the exciting things about this year is that we had a lot of good shooters who were not lighting it up earlier in the season. That means we are going to hit our shots later in the season. This is a buying opportunity.

[The Wiz]

4 hours ago, slufanskip said:

I don't understand why you would cringe. 

Yuri before yesterday 11/30 from 3 for 36.7% after 12/30 for 33.3%

Hargrove before yesterday 19/48 for 39.5% after 19/54 for 35.2%

Nesbit before yesterday 21/58 for 36.2% after 21/60 for 35%

Jones 13/34 for 38.2%

Can't argue with Thatch and Williams at this point but together they attempt under 3 - 3's per game. 

I am going to add some grades to your numbers.... the only difference I have is Jones at 39.4%...I show him with   13-33...either way he still grades out at A+.   As a team the Bills come in as an A-   3P team

Jimerson....43%...A+

Jones..........39.4...A+

Hargrove....35.2....B+

Nesbitt.........35......B

Collins...........33.3...C

Let me add 1 more thing to this 3P discussion ....when is it advantageous for the Bills to take a 3.   The Bills currently shoot 48.9% from 2.  In order to make it worthwhile to shoot a 3 whoever takes the shot needs to hit at a rate of at least  32.7%.... When Jimerson shoots it is the equivalent of a 2 pt shooter at 64.5%

Trivia question ...When should Jimerson shoot?...Answer ...anytime he wants.

[AnkielBreakers]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I am going to add some grades to your numbers.... the only difference I have is Jones at 39.4%...I show him with   13-33...either way he still grades out at A+.   As a team the Bills come in as an A-   3P team

Jimerson....43%...A+

Jones..........39.4...A+

Hargrove....35.2....B+

Nesbitt.........35......B

Collins...........33.3...C

Let me add 1 more thing to this 3P discussion ....when is it advantageous for the Bills to take a 3.   The Bills currently shoot 48.9% from 2.  In order to make it worthwhile to shoot a 3 whoever takes the shot needs to hit at a rate of at least  32.7%.... When Jimerson shoots it is the equivalent of a 2 pt shooter at 64.5%

Trivia question ...When should Jimerson shoot?...Answer ...anytime he wants.

Do we ever add in the ratio of drawing a foul, with the resulting shooting percentage? That is kind of a relevant factor when taking a shot, because fouls on three point shots are a lot less common. Right now, at 80%, it might skew things significantly.

[slufanskip]

17 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Do we ever add in the ratio of drawing a foul, with the resulting shooting percentage? That is kind of a relevant factor when taking a shot, because fouls on three point shots are a lot less common. Right now, at 80%, it might skew things significantly.

I've thought about that even with assists. Yuri makes a great pass, the shooter gets hacked and misses, but goes to the line and makes 1 or 2, No assist is credited. it happens a lot with Yuri. I know the same thing happens with everyone but with Yuri he's involved in so much of our offense I think it might happen even more often. 

[The Wiz]

45 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Do we ever add in the ratio of drawing a foul, with the resulting shooting percentage? That is kind of a relevant factor when taking a shot, because fouls on three point shots are a lot less common. Right now, at 80%, it might skew things significantly.

I don't think I have anything that can help either you or @slufanskip...The closest I have is FTA/FGA for you and Assists/ FGM for skip. But I don't think that is what either of you is looking for specifically.

[AnkielBreakers]

6 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I don't think I have anything that can help either you or @slufanskip...The closest I have is FTA/FGA for you and Assists/ FGM for skip. But I don't think that is what either of you is looking for specifically.

I did not expect an answer because it was just a random thought, but here is an example: If GJ goes to the line 1 out of every 4 two pt attempts, and he shoots 90% from the line, then his true two point percentage jumps up to 55% ((90-43) / 4 = ~12; so 43 + 12). It is still smarter for him to shoot threes, but a closer decision.

On another note, the Variation in shooting percentage for each team is probably calculated by someone. That would tell how likely a team is to have a horrible shooting game. Wouldn’t that also dictate how smart it is to shoot threes.

No answer necessary, I am just thinking out the issue.

[TheA_Bomb]

@The Wiz

I read most of "Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis" but I'll admit I'm not a stats guy.  As in I'm not good with stats, I totally agree with the use of advanced stats to optimize your team as a part of the overall team strategy and game planning.  Good stuff about the 3PT shot and how much it's worth.

[AnkielBreakers]

Enjoy!

 

[NoCoBillsFan]

19 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Enjoy!

 

@SluSignGuy can we get a GIF of this in some form?

[dennis_w]

very weak call by the ref, compare that to all the chest pounding and flexing it was nothing

 

[Fraz]

The best part is Gibby is completely lost 

[almaman]

9 hours ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

that's great

[cheeseman]

13 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Enjoy!

 

Thanks for posting this - I sit on that end of the arena and honestly did not see it.  Now seeing this I understand why I missed it.  Blink and he was done.  That ref was a bit quick with the whistle - how is pounding your chest and pointing to the bench not just as bad?

[AnkielBreakers]

1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

Thanks for posting this - I sit on that end of the arena and honestly did not see it.  Now seeing this I understand why I missed it.  Blink and he was done.  That ref was a bit quick with the whistle - how is pounding your chest and pointing to the bench not just as bad?

I don’t blame the ref, that said, I think Traore should do this after every dunk, and Coach Ford should work with the refs and opposing team to make every one aware this is not done in a derogatory manner. What a calling card move. I can see the future Ackerman commercial already.

[dlarry]

1 hour ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I don’t blame the ref, that said, I think Traore should do this after every dunk, and Coach Ford should work with the refs and opposing team to make every one aware this is not done in a derogatory manner. What a calling card move. I can see the future Ackerman commercial already.

He could do the dance on a carpet flying above the Arch with “Becky the Queen of Carpets”