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The Bills over UMass by 12 part 2


The Wiz

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Hopefully they come in to this game mad with a chip on their shoulder....to get a little revenge.
 
This is part 2 (game 2)...much of the written part will be similar to part 1.  All numbers and grades have been updated.  If the new spread is a shock to you after last night's loss then you need to take a look at my post game analysis in part 1.  Even if you don't want to learn about why we lost, you can find out why we are a heavy favorite in this game. The loss hurt our Chance to Dance numbers but we are still in it ....just a longer road now. The numbers show there still isn't a dominant team in the A-10.
 
Chance to Dance
 
SLU...45%...dn
 
Dav...53%...unch
Day...52%...up
vCU...48%....dn
 
No other A-10 teams that are at least 40%
 
This brings us to part 2 of a 2 game series with UMass...First , let me say that UMass is not a bottom feeder they are a C+ team slightly above average...they won't be Dancing but they won't be a PIG team either.,,,Thur was a key game,  the more difficult of the 2 because we started there.  A win at UMass  would have meant a sweep.    The theme for this game will be ....It's all about the 3s.   UMass comes in as one of the top shooting 3P teams ITN ...#4.  They will be dropping bombs all night...They are 6th ITN in 3PM....44% of all their shots are 3s...they make only slightly more of their 2s than 3s...48%/41%.   But there is good news too.  UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense. We will have plenty of open looks ..we just need to make shots  ...btw, they don't rebound. We didn't take advantage of the reb advantage last night...which was a factor in the loss. ....The UMass philosophy will be the same as last night and every night they play......we plan on winning by outscoring you in a high scoring game...we will leave you alone...please don't bother us and let us have some open shots..
 
Let's get to the report card and see what's happening...
 
...................SLU.....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................A-...........................C+..............................F- 12th WITN

FG%...............B.......................C+...........................B-...............................F- 7th WITN

3Pt%.............A-.......................A+...4th ITN...........B...............................F

FT%...............A+..19th ITN......B.................................................................

Reb...............B+......................F+..............................A-.............................C

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...FT%.....Def.....none

Down....Off...Rebs.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...up

FTA/gm....The Bills....8th....up

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...4th...unch

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch

Stls......Collins....54th....dn

FT%...Jimerson...63rd...up

Blks...Okoro...94th...dn

PPG...Jimerson...94th...new

Mass

Assts...Fernandes...26th

 

Injury/ Illness

Courtney...Out Indefinitely ...Illness...1/15/22...No date for return has been established.

Mass

Santos...Out indefinitely.....undisclosed injury...1/20/22...has missed 5 games..

Walker...Out for season....Leg...1/6/22...Femur injury

 

Keys to the game... The keys is the 3s....We will need to use all of our   3P defense to contain them from the arc....they have 4 or 5  that can pop from the 3P line....3 key players to watch ...Fernandes...leads the team in PPG...Assts...FG%...Stls... Buttrick...Reb and Blks ....R Kelly (no relation to CJ)...52% from 3....17th ITN...Rebound ..we beat them by 1 on the boards  ...not good against a weak rebounding team...a contributing factor to last night's loss

WWN2D2W.... Hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts.......our slash 48/38/77...we will have some good looks...make the shots.......80+ pts will be enough to win if we play D.......keep TO to 11...they will not force TOs .  .UMass is a D+ in forcing TOs  BUT they do protect the ball ...only 9 TOs last night. ...Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances.

Bottom line...UMass will not have 33 FTA in game 2..  we will pick up points on the charity stripe.....+1 on Rebs won't get it done...Dominate....No open looks on 3s for them...we need to bother them a little more...if we can't force a few TOs , force a few deflections. We are the better team ..on offense and defense.   We have to show it...If we come to this game with an edge...time will run out on the Minutemen.

 
 
 
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I’m not seeing it. A team that on Thursday can drive right by your defenders as if they aren’t there, can do the same three days later. I fully expect another layup drill from UMass with little resistance and our usual state of disarray on offense.

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1 hour ago, billikenbill said:

I’m not seeing it. A team that on Thursday can drive right by your defenders as if they aren’t there, can do the same three days later. I fully expect another layup drill from UMass with little resistance and our usual state of disarray on offense.

Did you read the Wiz's recap of the game last night and the posts that followed it?

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2 hours ago, billikenbill said:

I’m not seeing it. A team that on Thursday can drive right by your defenders as if they aren’t there, can do the same three days later. I fully expect another layup drill from UMass with little resistance and our usual state of disarray on offense.

I don’t disagree but if the offense is in disarray and puts up 86 points I’m not sure we want to not be in disarray.

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1 hour ago, eastsidejoe said:

I know what I saw and it was pitiful defense to say the least and the fouls were legitimate in my opinion.  Quit blaming the loss on the refs.

Whether the fouls were legit or not the problem was they were called and usually some of those calls could go either way.  I am not blaming the refs but to deny that the fouls were not an issue is wrong also.  I think the fact that the team got into foul trouble in the second half was a result of how the refs called the game and did impact our defense - did they stick it to us not anymore than any home cooking that most teams get.

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2 hours ago, Old guy said:

Did you read the Wiz's recap of the game last night and the posts that followed it?

No, too frustrated to do it. Maybe later. The bigger issue is what has happened to The Wiz’s computer this year? Possibly hacked or has a virus?

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billikenbill, the Wiz is the Wiz, computers are computers (you have one or more of your own as well). The Wiz is the important partner, the computer is there to follow his instructions/programs. Computers and their programs tend to perform well when the outcomes fall within 2 standard deviations of the median. Last night the outcome fell outside the 2 standard deviation area, went into the tails of the distribution curve. Can this happen? yes it can but it is not something that happens commonly or frequently. I do not think a virus was involved in this. This may sound peculiar of even mysterious, but outliers do happen in real life. Even more mysterious and peculiar would be to have two sequential outcomes falling outside the 2 standard deviation area of the distribution curve, one after the other. We will see soon, won't we?

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1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

Whether the fouls were legit or not the problem was they were called and usually some of those calls could go either way.  I am not blaming the refs but to deny that the fouls were not an issue is wrong also.  I think the fact that the team got into foul trouble in the second half was a result of how the refs called the game and did impact our defense - did they stick it to us not anymore than any home cooking that most teams get.

We got into foul trouble because we committed the fouls.  I didn’t see any home cooking by the refs.  Yes, we had more fouls called on us than they had called on them.  That was a result of umass changing their plan and started to drive to the basket and we had no answer but to foul.

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Whatever the truth happens to be about the game last Thursday (take the word truth with a grain of salt), the facts for the game Sunday remain the following: 1. We are playing against the same team, with the same players they had last Thursday, this coming Sunday. 2. The game will be a home game for us. 3. Most likely Linssen will not be available for significant play by Sunday and we will be facing UMass again with the same players we did last Thursday. 4. I doubt very much that we will see our team learned how to play against UMass in a totally different and much improved way in the interval between the two games. So, reach your own conclusions, what kind of a game are you expecting to see next Sunday?, a repeat of last Thursday's?, or something different and wonderful? The Wiz expects us to win by 12 points, can we do it?

I am not speculating or pointing fingers against anyone, just setting the facts as I see them before Sunday's game against UMass at the Chaifetz.

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12 hours ago, eastsidejoe said:

We got into foul trouble because we committed the fouls.  I didn’t see any home cooking by the refs.  Yes, we had more fouls called on us than they had called on them.  That was a result of umass changing their plan and started to drive to the basket and we had no answer but to foul.

Clearly you are not understanding my point - I am not saying the refs stole the game from us but that they chose to call the game in a way that resulted in more fouls being called against us.  There have been studies done that shows that home teams often get more fouls called in their favor then the visitors.  Yes they changed their approach in the second half but it only takes a 2-3 calls that could have gone the other way or not on a key player or two and the entire flow of the game changes.   I agree the defense was bad and that caused the 91 pts to be scored but the question is how did the defense get so bad and as I said before the refs determine the flow of the game by how they call fouls or not. 

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2 hours ago, cheeseman said:

Clearly you are not understanding my point - I am not saying the refs stole the game from us but that they chose to call the game in a way that resulted in more fouls being called against us.  There have been studies done that shows that home teams often get more fouls called in their favor then the visitors.  Yes they changed their approach in the second half but it only takes a 2-3 calls that could have gone the other way or not on a key player or two and the entire flow of the game changes.   I agree the defense was bad and that caused the 91 pts to be scored but the question is how did the defense get so bad and as I said before the refs determine the flow of the game by how they call fouls or not. 

Clearly you don’t understand my point.  We fouled because we could not guard.  It was our poor defense that caused the additional free throws and the loss.  The calls were not questionable.  The game would have seen called the same way if we were at home.  I am not an idiot.  I know that the home team normally gets more calls than the visitors.  I don’t need to see some “study”

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1 hour ago, eastsidejoe said:

Clearly you don’t understand my point.  We fouled because we could not guard.  It was our poor defense that caused the additional free throws and the loss.  The calls were not questionable.  The game would have seen called the same way if we were at home.  I am not an idiot.  I know that the home team normally gets more calls than the visitors.  I don’t need to see some “study”

This seems to happen everywhere except in Saint Louis. Every game I have been to it seems like we are playing on the road.

 

JMHO

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58 minutes ago, willie said:

Aren’t we one of the top scoring free throw teams in the country?

Bills ........PF/ gm....18.3...D...........opp PF/gm...19.2....A..............We foul a lot ...our opponents foul us more

................FT%........77.5%....................opp FT%....67.5%

................FTA.........22.5/gm.....................opp FTA...20.6/gm

................FTM/gm....17.4/gm..2nd ITN....opp FTM/ gm...13.9

Bottom line ...we have a 3.5 pt advantage at the charity stripe  every game   (which is huge)...so it doesn't look like the refs are out to get us every game....This last game against UMass , for whatever reason....UMass had 13 extra FTA and 8 extra  FTM....This was an anomaly....Was this the only reason we lost?...No, but it was a game changer.

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1 hour ago, willie said:

Aren’t we one of the top scoring free throw teams in the country?

https://kenpom.com/hca.php

Kenpom has a home-court advantage ranking. Actually pretty interesting to peruse through. Seems like the wiz has something similar.

 

We are currently 14th in the nation. I know there are a lot of variables at play here, but I don't think our raucous atmosphere is exactly a game changer. 

FWIW, second in a10 is Dayton at 55 and 3 is Lasalle at 63. Maybe its the chlorine?

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Team Rankings came out with their numbers for tomorrow's game. As per the Vegas line, SLU is expected to win by 9 pts with three stars of confidence.

The Team Rankings approach provides an additional independent evaluation of how this game is expected to go. Having multiple independent evaluations using different systems come up with fairly similar results adds strength to the Wiz's prediction for this game.

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On 1/21/2022 at 2:00 PM, billikenbill said:

I’m not seeing it. A team that on Thursday can drive right by your defenders as if they aren’t there, can do the same three days later. I fully expect another layup drill from UMass with little resistance and our usual state of disarray on offense.

#ColdTakesExposed

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I had a poster who sent me a note and was having some fun  because I had picked a double digit spread...He asked me...Did I not see the first game?  It is only 3 days later ...how could I expect a different out come? Nothing will change.  Well , yes I did see the first game and so did the computer (in an AR way) and that 's why we saw a double digit win. The first game was an anomaly.  Today's game was more representative of who we are.

Let's see what happened....bolded statements are from original post.

Hopefully, they come in to this game mad with a chip on their shoulder....to get a little revenge.....They did,  they did and they did. And because they did all 3, they won big and made a statement.  Let me also say here, that some will diminish this victory saying that UMass is a bottom feeder. ...Just not true...while they are not a tourney team, they are not a bottom feeder either.   They are a C+ team  (above average overall) and 4th ITN in 3P%. Beating them at home takes a little away but winning by 30+ adds it back in.

Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances.... And this was the the game changer ....This is why we won this time and won big... and one of the reasons we lost last time.  We out rebounded them 55-35  an extra 12 over what was projected....on both ends of the court...+9 on Off and +11 on Def. We had extra chances AND took chances away from them...what good is it to force them to miss a shot only to give them extra chances....2nd chance pts  Bills win 25-13....overall an extra 12 shots in the game.... Excellent

keep TO to 11... This has been a problem this season...10 or less is an A+ ...we came in at 8......Pts off of TOs...Bills win again... 12pts-8pts... Great job.

our slash 48/38/77... Actual...46/30/57... this fell a little short but it didn't matter. The projected slash assumes UMass will have a more normal slash....and instead ran into our shutdown defense. UM slash...29/27/82....the key was the UM 3s...they missed 5 extra 3s... 15 pts missing from their total...another key to our victory.

UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense...This in know way should diminish the win....The difference between game 1 and game 2 was 5 pts...we scored only 5 pts more than last time...Why?... because it was the same defense we went up against last time.  Yet we lost game 1 by 5pts and won game 2 by 31pts.... a 36 pt difference....that is because this game we had defense and rebounding.  We bothered them this game...they rushed shots ...they were out of position.  R Kelly 17th ITN in 3s shooting 52%  from the arc shot 25%...someone will say but he only took 4 shots...BINGO...welcome to Bills 3D.

 Hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts... Top 3 scored 39...but it didn't matter...their big guns were silent. Fernandes who is leading the team with 16+pts/gm...held to 3...amazing...The Kellys R & CJ were held to 5 and zero...Weeks finished with 2....Their top 3 from the 1st game scored 52 against us...This game 21 pts....Hmmm 52-21=31pts...where have we seen the number 31 before?

Finally from the post game analysis of game 1....FTA. ..FTA and FTM were important in the 1st game,,,not only the volume  that UMass had but the difference in in numbers between SLU and UM. I pointed out that it was an aberration and would not occur again  The FTA for both teams in this game fell within normal.  And the only reason it mattered in the last game was because it was a close contest.  Had the Bills played like this on Thur , the difference in FTs wouldn't have mattered.

Bottomline... This was a statement game...not because we beat a C+ team by 30 but it showed the team what was possible ...like when we battled #2 Auburn to the final 2 seconds a month ago.  If we keep Rebs high and TOs low and play a little D, anything is possible.   We didn't even have a good shooting day ...I know we can shoot better than 30% from the arc and 57% from the FT line....because we have all season....We need to take what we did today and hold that thought .

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The poster that sent you that note is a total ignoramus in terms of statistics. He is probably totally shaken tonight because for him, there is no way to explain the loss Thursday followed by the win tonight. Well done Wiz, you have that rarest of all qualities: the b_lls to declare in public exactly what you believe is going to happen and to be correct in a nice way after you are proven correct.

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3 hours ago, Old guy said:

The poster that sent you that note is a total ignoramus in terms of statistics. He is probably totally shaken tonight because for him, there is no way to explain the loss Thursday followed by the win tonight. Well done Wiz, you have that rarest of all qualities: the b_lls to declare in public exactly what you believe is going to happen and to be correct in a nice way after you are proven correct.

fess up old guy it was you :)

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