The Bills over UMass by 5 (part 1)

[HoosierPal]

35 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Does anyone have a link that says how much McKillops annual salary and bonuses are?   just curious how he lines up with the other coaches.  thanks

 

[The Wiz]

Injury update...CJ Kelly will be available for tonight's game...This is not good news for The Bills. We will need to have the A+   arc defense along with great rebounding today... no second chances for them.

[someoneelse]

23 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Injury update...CJ Kelly will be available for tonight's game...This is not good news for The Bills. We will need to have the A+   arc defense along with great rebounding today... no second chances for them.

Does that move the Wiz Prediction line?

[HoosierPal]

 

[The Wiz]

38 minutes ago, someoneelse said:

Does that move the Wiz Prediction line?

I ran it again today  .using conservative numbers plus a possibility of Linssen returning ... may be a game time decision...and the spread still comes to 5.

The X factor in this game will be the UMass 3P shooting... If they get hot, we could be in trouble,  but if we can disrupt them like RI did we can win by double digits. Remember,   they have no defense...we need to take advantage of that.

[dennis_w]

maybe this is the game jnez goes off, if indeed they have no defense

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

 

fred's in there. And I believe Martin also did the walk thru for UD

[NoCoBillsFan]

1 hour ago, dennis_w said:

maybe this is the game jnez goes off, if indeed they have no defense

I know his breakout game is coming at some point, just a matter of when

[almaman]

6 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

I know his breakout game is coming at some point, just a matter of when

or what team he's on :):)

[NoCoBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, almaman said:

or what team he's on :):)

Just keep Bruce Pearl away from him

[StlBills]

Per Stu: Fred Thatch Jr. and Marten Linssen, who missed the game Saturday due to COVID protocols, are available tonight at UMass. Linssen is also coming off an ankle injury and hasn’t played since Dec. 18.

[Billikenbooster]

I see this as a trap game for SLU. Facing a winless team on their home floor. 
Need focus and execution tonight. No dumb TO’s.

[willie]

47 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

I see this as a trap game for SLU. Facing a winless team on their home floor. 
Need focus and execution tonight. No dumb TO’s.

The point spread tells you it is far from a gimme. 

[The Wiz]

6 hours ago, someoneelse said:

Does that move the Wiz Prediction line?

Now that we know Linssen is available ....now is the time to answer the question ...will that move the Prediction line?...There is a rust factor that the computer builds in...  ie if you are out more than 2 weeks  then you have rust....So the answer still remains no movement in the spread ...the model is expecting him to score 5 pts or less and 2 rebs or less...if he does more than that in both categories than that would be a needle mover.

[The Wiz]

Painful game to lose ...also a strange game.....painful because it was strange....Strange because we lost after the clock stopped (hold that thought)....Strange because nearly all the numbers matched....Here are just some of those numbers

....................SLU.......Mass

FG%.............51%......52%

3P%.............37%......35%...we stopped them here...good job

FG/FGA.......30-59...29-56......1 extra shot made

3P/3PA........7-19.......7-20....... shots made.... even...another plus

Rebs.............31............30...fail...they made the expected number... we were 8 short....their baskets made would have been less (or maybe a few extra baskets for us) if we had grabbed  8 more rebs.

2nd chance pts...13.........12.......

Pts off TOs..........13........14

Lead change...........26 times

Score tied ...............15 times

I could go on but you get the idea...everything was extremely tight....are you still holding the thought from above?  the one that said...we lost after the clock stopped....FTs......Our  strongest suit ...our strength....Our FT % was 90% (18-20) ...well, that's great even for a good FT shooting team. They shot 78% (26-33 not bad and better than they usually do...so what happened?  They had 13 extra FTA ...13  x  78% = 10 pts...take 10 off their score and we not only win but pretty much make the spread.  It wasn't just that they had the extra 13 FTA...BUT... they were 13 FTA above their season average.  Also, the 91 pts was 13 pts over their season average...you take off 10 pts and they are at a much more normal PPG ...within 3.

So what does all this mean?...It means that this game was an outlier...a freak ...something out of the ordinary that allowed them to win...something that probably won't happen to them again this season.  (68% extra FTAs)   It means that the only way they could beat us would be for something weird or out of the ordinary to happen. And it did.  Looking at the stats you would think that a stat outlier would be something like Mass shooting 75% from the arc or The Bills having 25 TOs.  But no,  tonight it was FTAs.

Bottom line....Unless lightning strikes in the same spot (or they bring their own refs), we should win on Sunday.

 

[Old guy]

Wiz, your description of this game as an outlier could also be described by saying that this game fell on the tails of the normal distribution curve. Yes, the much larger number of FTA's taken by UMass in the second half determined the game's outcome. This game was pushed into outlier territory, or into the tails of the normal distribution curve, by the refs foul calls during the second half. The first half of the game does not show an anomalous number of FTA's taken by either team. Whether the anomalously large number of foul calls against SLU during the second half of the game were justified or not cannot be determined without extensive evaluation of the game's videos. I doubt any such action will be taken.

 

[cheeseman]

7 hours ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, your description of this game as an outlier could also be described by saying that this game fell on the tails of the normal distribution curve. Yes, the much larger number of FTA's taken by UMass in the second half determined the game's outcome. This game was pushed into outlier territory, or into the tails of the normal distribution curve, by the refs foul calls during the second half. The first half of the game does not show an anomalous number of FTA's taken by either team. Whether the anomalously large number of foul calls against SLU during the second half of the game were justified or not cannot be determined without extensive evaluation of the game's videos. I doubt any such action will be taken.

 

This the same thing that happened in Dayton.  If the home team gets home cooking from the refs then we are sunk.  

[Old guy]

41 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

This the same thing that happened in Dayton.  If the home team gets home cooking from the refs then we are sunk.  

This is true. This game shows how statistics can be used as a screening forensic tool to indicate specific actions that could be subject to extensive review to establish if there was adequate justification for them.

[Taj79]

Any team that gets home cooking wins.  I did not have so much a problem with the refs as i did with our inability to guard anyone.  I asked in the GDT ..... if Yuri is such an all A10 defender, where did Noah Fernandes come from?  Jones killed us off the bench,.  Ditto Garcia (although I have seen Garcia do that to some others).  Jones got 13.  THIRTEEN!  Steadman got 7.  That's 20 ppg from their center spot.  This wads a game that was obvious from the beginning --- the lack of defense was going to be telltale.  Whomever stopped the other (or whomever lost it late) would win.  That was Umass.  

I'm sorry, but 1) having Traore in late was a bad move and 2) going to him twice on endign clkosing plays was downright stupid.  1) is on Ford and 2) is on Collins.

We also cannot win with Nesbitt and Hargrove doing so little.  Yes, they were the bulk of our threes but just not consistent enough.  To win, we will need more.  Every night.

 

[cheeseman]

16 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Any team that gets home cooking wins.  I did not have so much a problem with the refs as i did with our inability to guard anyone.  I asked in the GDT ..... if Yuri is such an all A10 defender, where did Noah Fernandes come from?  Jones killed us off the bench,.  Ditto Garcia (although I have seen Garcia do that to some others).  Jones got 13.  THIRTEEN!  Steadman got 7.  That's 20 ppg from their center spot.  This wads a game that was obvious from the beginning --- the lack of defense was going to be telltale.  Whomever stopped the other (or whomever lost it late) would win.  That was Umass.  

I'm sorry, but 1) having Traore in late was a bad move and 2) going to him twice on endign clkosing plays was downright stupid.  1) is on Ford and 2) is on Collins.

We also cannot win with Nesbitt and Hargrove doing so little.  Yes, they were the bulk of our threes but just not consistent enough.  To win, we will need more.  Every night.

 

Good points - the problem with defense failing is did the refs calling fouls early cause us not to man up but to fall back?  The last 3 games Collins has been in foul trouble and had to sit for extensive minutes because of it.  Collins defense has seemed to get worse lately.  For a Billiken team to give up 91 points to an 0-4 conference team is unforgiveable.  Not sure what is going on but something is not right.  Is the team tuning Ford out?  I don't know but something has to give.  At this point they are not even an NIT team.  By the way  I think Traore was in because Linssen still is not very mobile and he was getting beat when he was in there.  Another issue is we just have too many shots blocked - Traore getting blocked on that one late in the game was a killer - he has to keep that ball in front of him not have it behind him so a defender can do that.

[The Wiz]

11 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Any team that gets home cooking wins.  I did not have so much a problem with the refs as i did with our inability to guard anyone.  I asked in the GDT ..... if Yuri is such an all A10 defender, where did Noah Fernandes come from?  Jones killed us off the bench,.  Ditto Garcia (although I have seen Garcia do that to some others).  Jones got 13.  THIRTEEN!  Steadman got 7.  That's 20 ppg from their center spot.  This wads a game that was obvious from the beginning --- the lack of defense was going to be telltale.  Whomever stopped the other (or whomever lost it late) would win.  That was Umass.  

I'm sorry, but 1) having Traore in late was a bad move and 2) going to him twice on endign clkosing plays was downright stupid.  1) is on Ford and 2) is on Collins.

We also cannot win with Nesbitt and Hargrove doing so little.  Yes, they were the bulk of our threes but just not consistent enough.  To win, we will need more.  Every night. 

 

This is why the fouling out of Okoro in the final minute  and Linssen not up to speed at the end  was a dagger  to us. I believe with Okoro in there in the last minute the outcome could have been different, As mentioned in my post game analysis above ...the shadow of the fpul strikes again...it was not just the extra foul shots for Mass but also the loss of Okoro at a key moment and others sitting as a result of foul trouble.

[Old guy]

31 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

This is why the fouling out of Okoro in the final minute  and Linssen not up to speed at the end  was a dagger  to us. I believe with Okoro in there in the last minute the outcome could have been different, As mentioned in my post game analysis above ...the shadow of the fpul strikes again...it was not just the extra foul shots for Mass but also the loss of Okoro at a key moment and others sitting as a result of foul trouble.

Was the foul trouble Okoro and others experienced last night justified? However you look at it, our loss last night was due to the large number of foul calls in the second half. They placed restrictions on our players ability to defend and increased the score for UMass. Were the fouls caused by poor play of by unjustified ref calls? When I talk about extensive reviews of the game videos, it must be understood that such a review could be used internally to improve the apparently strained team/coach relationship. I do not like the way this season is developing. In my opinion team cohesion and morale needs to be improved/restored.

[TheA_Bomb]

This game should not have come down to the final minute.  Good teams win home games and half of their road games.  So if you're up against the conference cellar dwellers you better win those games. 

Shooting can be off in games that's why good coaches stress defense and rebounding because those are effort and execution and should be constant.  91 points?  That was a bad defensive effort.

[billikenblue]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

This is why the fouling out of Okoro in the final minute  and Linssen not up to speed at the end  was a dagger  to us. I believe with Okoro in there in the last minute the outcome could have been different, As mentioned in my post game analysis above ...the shadow of the fpul strikes again...it was not just the extra foul shots for Mass but also the loss of Okoro at a key moment and others sitting as a result of foul trouble.

When okoro went back in Travis kept him switching on defense which put him in a mismatch with Fernandes whi gets the and 1...you have to go small ball then and bring in Nesbit etc not traore with no experience. Inexplicable why the most important possessions end in his hands. Just really dumb decisions.  

[Gremio14]

3 minutes ago, billikenblue said:

When okoro went back in Travis kept him switching on defense which put him in a mismatch with Fernandes whi gets the and 1...you have to go small ball then and bring in Nesbit etc not traore with no experience. Inexplicable why the most important possessions end in his hands. Just really dumb decisions.  

Inexplicable…mindblowing…I completely agree. But is that on Ford…or on Yuri??

Equally perplexing were the several times Nesbitt was wide open on the wing ( he can shoot the three) screaming for the ball…and Yuri would not even look at him. I just don’t get it.