The Wiz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Chance to Dance SLU...52%...up Dav...53%...up VCU...50%...dn Day...49%....new No other A-10 teams that are at least 40% SLU and Dav up 1%...both did what they were supposed to do...VCU takes a hit after a pounding by the Bonnies ...down 7%. And Dayton's meaningful win over us pushes them into the picture....4 teams all around 50% ...Which means as of Jan 16 it looks like 2 teams will get in. This brings us to part 1 of a 2 game series with UMass...Thur is a key game, the more difficult of the 2 because we start there. A win at UMass probably means a sweep. But as you can see by the spread, this will by no means be an easy game. The theme for this game will be ....It's all about the 3s. UMass comes in as one of the top shooting teams ITN ...#3. They will be dropping bombs all night...They are 5th ITN in 3PM....45% of all their shots are 3s...they make only slightly more of their 2s than 3s...46%/41%. But there is good news too. UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense. We will have plenty of open looks ..we just need to make shots ...btw, they don't rebound. Their philosophy will be ...we plan on winning by outscoring you in a high scoring game. Let's get to the report card and see what's happening... ...................SLU.....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................B+...........................B-..............................F- 17th WITN FG%...............B.......................C.............................B.................................F- 6th WITN 3Pt%.............A-.......................A+...3rd ITN...........B+..............................F FT%...............A.......................B................................................................. Reb...............A-......................D-..............................A-.............................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...Reb.....Def.....PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb...a clean sweep on D ..all categories up Down....Off...PPG.....Def...none Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...3rd...dn FTA/gm....The Bills....9th....dn FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...4th...dn Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch Stls......Collins....33rd....up...big jump from 66th FT%...Jimerson...71st ...dn...22 place drop for missing only 1 FT...no mercy for FT shooters Blks...Okoro...82nd...dn Mass Assts...Fernandes...28th Injury/ Illness Linssen...Ques for Thur...Ankle and Protocols...1/15/22......If he has no symptoms and his ankle improves he may play...At this time it is undetermined whether he will face UMass Courtney...Out Indefinitely ...Illness...1/15/22...No date for return has been established. Mass CJ Kelly..Ques for Thur...Knee...1/ 15/22...has missed 2 games due to knee swelling...unknown at this time whether he will face us. Santos...Ques for Thur...undisclosed injury...1/15/22...has missed 4 games...undetermined whether he will face us. Walker...Out for season....Leg...1/6/22...Femur injury At this point , now that you have seen the report card , I would like to take a quick time out. The computer has asked me to do a short rant for it. There seems to be a discrepancy between what it is cranking out and what some board members perceive. Some here think we have a horrible team and we have no Chance to Dance..in fact we shouldn't even show up because we are an embarrassment. Meanwhile the computer pours over data and says ...WHAT?...The difference between the board member and the computer is that some board members are looking at only the Bills through a microscope...The computer pours through the data of 358 teams and says... Wow, this is a pretty good team... On offense we are only 1 letter grade away from the honor roll (Straight As)...We need 1 more basket every other game and we reach elite status (top 15% of all teams).... Meanwhile we have reached honorable mention on defense (Straight Bs) which puts us in the top 30% of all teams. In the A-10 , the computer doesn't see anybody that will dominate...our chances to Dance are as good as anybody. This rant doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement...There is ...especially on TOs ...The computer sees this as an area that can derails us...also inconsistency ..the inability to make our numbers all the time because of wild swings in different categories. Finally, the difference between me and the computer is I can take 1 paragraph to rant ...the computer would take 300 pages (all numbers) and if anyone disagreed with it it would crank out another 300. I just punch in Go Bills and it shuts down....Rant over ...we now return to the UMass report.... Keys to the game... The keys is the 3s....We will need to use all of that B+ 3P defense to contain them from the arc....If CJ Kelly (there are 2 Kellys) doesn't play it will be a minus for for Mass as he is one of their gunners. The bad news is even if he doesn't play they have 3 or 4 others that can pop from the arc....3 key players to watch ...Fernandes...leads the team in PPG...Assts...FG%...Stls... Buttrick...Reb and Blks ....R Kelly (no relation)...52% from 3....18th ITN WWN2D2W....Since we don't know if CJ Kelly will play let's do this...hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts.......48/38/77...we will have some good looks...make the shots.......80 pts...this is doable against a bad D...the closer we get to 80 pts the better our chances will be to win....keep TO to 11...they will not force TOs . Fham was a B+ in forcing TOs ...UMass is a D+ ... if we have a high number of TOs then that is on us. ...Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances. Bottom line...We are the better team ..on offense and defense. A win at Mass is worth 2 as we will be favored by much more than 5 coming back with a victory....Let's make short work of them...It should only take a Minute Man. Adman, slufanskip, CBFan and 4 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Thanks. Always great stuff The Wiz. Loved the computer’s rant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Thank you @The Wizfor the rant and the spread. I see 2 trends happening good and bad. The good is Okoro, slow start but came on and is reliable with rebounding, scoring and staying out of foul trouble. The bad trend continues to be Yuri being pressured causing turnovers and the coaches not finding a way to make teams pay for the pressure with an easy score. As a fan I have to do a better job of not getting down on Yuri so much. The players are a good bunch of young people that make the majority of the games fun and exciting while losing their best player for the season. drkelsey55 and juniorbill76 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 How many games has Brandon Courtney missed now due to illness? Let’s hope and pray that’s not related to the reason for the funk at the start of the Fordham game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gister Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 What is Thatch's status for the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, gister said: What is Thatch's status for the game? He is Covid protocol so I am sure they have a set process for being cleared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, gister said: What is Thatch's status for the game? It depends, on whether he had symptoms or not, and whether he is vaccinated or not, or if CDC changes their 'guidance' in the next four days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, juniorbill76 said: How many games has Brandon Courtney missed now due to illness? Let’s hope and pray that’s not related to the reason for the funk at the start of the Fordham game. He has missed 5 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, gister said: What is Thatch's status for the game? Thatch is under Covid protocol. That means he has either tested positive or has been exposed to someone who has developed Covid. If he doesn't develop symptoms in 5 days , he will be able to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: Finally, the difference between me and the computer is I can take 1 paragraph to rant ...the computer would take 300 pages (all numbers) and if anyone disagreed with it it would crank out another 300. Wiz, I love you, this made me laugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 As per the Team Rankings current stats based upon games played this season, SLU's defense stats are way better than Umass', SLU's offensive stats are even with Umass'. Agree this will not be an easy game to win at Umass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 hours ago, Old guy said: As per the Team Rankings current stats based upon games played this season, SLU's defense stats are way better than Umass', SLU's offensive stats are even with Umass'. Agree this will not be an easy game to win at Umass. We need to crush UMass twice. They are the bottom dweller in the conference. RUBillsFan likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The computer does not have eyes ...... As Confucius once said .... "if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bull****. If all else fails, use statistics." willie likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Taj79 said: The computer does not have eyes ...... As Confucius once said .... "if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bull****. If all else fails, use statistics." A10Ref likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 hours ago, Taj79 said: The computer does not have eyes ...... As Confucius once said .... "if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bull****. If all else fails, use statistics." 8 hours ago, The Wiz said: This is like having the installer of some equipment saying the problem is a manufacturing flaw, and the manufacturer saying it is an installer flaw. In either way, you are caught in the middle. Computers are good but have limitations, the same goes for statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Old guy said: This is like having the installer of some equipment saying the problem is a manufacturing flaw, and the manufacturer saying it is an installer flaw. In either way, you are caught in the middle. Computers are good but have limitations, the same goes for statistics. Stats are not the problem - the problem is who and how they use the stats. Like the old saying goes - figures don't lie but liars figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, cheeseman said: Stats are not the problem - the problem is who and how they use the stats. Like the old saying goes - figures don't lie but liars figure. Cheeseman, you can really extend what you are saying to a vast number of fields. Some of the erroneous info you come across is not coming from liars, it is coming from people that truly believe what they are saying, even though it is wrong for some reason or the other. Stats can be used for purposes they are not suitable for. For example, stats are just fine as long as they are applied to large numbers of instances. When they are applied to individuals or small groups of individuals (like a basketball team) performance stats themselves may be bad tools to predict what is going to happen in a future game. Performance is streaky, it does not increase in a linear fashion, despite practice. Also every distribution curve has tails. 95% of all possible outcomes (assuming large numbers of instances) fall within 2 sds from the median, but there is that 5% of the outcomes that fall in the tails. Some players may have their night of nights in a given game and outperform or under perform all their prior game performances (that is, their performance goes straight to the tail of the distribution curve for a given game). Figures do not lie, but figures may be erroneously applied or interpreted to prove or predict future events that they cannot prove or predict accurately, usually because they are based upon insufficient numbers of instances or due to chance events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 To say of what is that it is not, or of what is not that it is, is false, while to say of what is that it is, and of what is not that it is not, is true. – Aristotle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: To say of what is that it is not, or of what is not that it is, is false, while to say of what is that it is, and of what is not that it is not, is true. – Aristotle so simple but simply ignored by so many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ancient learning and philosophy. The ancient Greeks believed that the function of the lungs was to cool the body, which is not true. Your quote of Aristotle brings up an very old and very common problem, how do you know what truth is? Is there absolute truth to anything, or just degrees of usable truth? I am not trying to put down your work, I think it is excellent. I have used statistics and probability on my own in the market for years, and used them professionally in individual life expectancy estimations for decades. There is risk for error in individual case life expectancy estimations that cannot be avoided. Actuarial methods work best when applied to very large numbers of cases, not small numbers of cases. In other words, a lot of the statistical and probabilistic results are estimates. Accurate statistical work will minimize the margin of error of these estimates and make the results usable. You can assume significant risk and come out ahead using these low margin of error estimates. You do excellent work in that regard. However, a lot of what is presented as valid statistical information is not, whether or not it is believed to be true by large numbers of people. Madoff (spelling?) was believed to be a financial genius by lots of people at high levels, until he was found out to be a crook. Determining what truth is is not easy. Aristotle's quote is correct but can be used only if you know what truth is. Belief is not equal to truth. dennis_w likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Team Rankings Vegas line favors SLU to win against UMass by 3.5 pts with two stars of confidence. Looking at the stats for both teams, SLU's defense stats are much better than UMass, the offensive stats are about even for both teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Does anyone have a link that says how much McKillops annual salary and bonuses are? just curious how he lines up with the other coaches. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: Does anyone have a link that says how much McKillops annual salary and bonuses are? just curious how he lines up with the other coaches. thanks All I know is from his days in the SoCo he was considered the best in the conference. He supposedly was offered many jobs by ACC teams, NCS, UVA, Wake. SO Carolina offered him at least two times, but he spurned them all. I figure he’s paid well by Davidson, but money doesn’t seem to be a priority to him. Davidson’s a nice little town and he’s a big fish in a small pond, so I assume he’s happy where he is. Sounds a lot like Mark Few. Whatever floats your boat, and there’s no denying he’s a hell of a coach who doesn’t need a bunch of 4 and 5 stars to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: Does anyone have a link that says how much McKillops annual salary and bonuses are? just curious how he lines up with the other coaches. thanks https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/college/article226427045.html About 600-800K...which puts him mid pack in the A-10...contract ends 22-23...but Dav says they will keep him as long as he wants to stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 incredible. only makes me like him even more. doing what he wants, where he wants to be, with no pressure and no time limits. gotta like that. Bills71 and almaman like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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