GDT: ABC

[billikenblue]

37 minutes ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

We won't be finishing conference play at 15-3. At best, 13-5. This team is too bipolar. Would love to be proven wrong though.

Watched us then Auburn/Alabama . To your point...hard to believe we had Auburn beat after our performance tonight. Auburn is the best team in the nation right now.  Auburn plays fast which made us play at a better pace for our talent . As I have mentioned before  for a final four POINT guard Travis is not good at coaching offense. 

[billikenblue]

10 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

what befuddles me is that it is becoming pretty obvious that yuri is the engine and if he isnt playing his game we are lost.   he is small and a lot of his game depends on getting the defense to help on him and then leaving key billiken scorers open.   in the open court that is a piece of cake for yuri.   in the half court, that just isnt going to happen.  thus, yuri becomes worthless.   he ends up driving the lane with a tree in front of him that he cant reach over the outstretched branch.  result is a blocked shot or a stop and no where to even pass half the time. 

if we are going to insist on playing half court, i suggest giving the spot out front to nesbitt.   while he hasnt finished as we need on his drives to the basket, i got more confidence that he will be able to get over the tree than i do yuri will.  

i really dont want the above switch.   the switch i want is to the billikens to ALWAYS push the ball down the court with collins leading the way and the likes of nesbitt, jimmmerson, and hargrove streaking up the sidelines waiting for the kickout.   i just dont get the game plan.

for ford to call out the players for not playing well offensively, well we dont have a half court offense to speak of from what i have seen this year.   so who's fault is that?

As I mentioned in  this thread Ford was a successful point guard but doesn't know how to translate his skills into COACHING offense. He may be a classic case of an athlete who could follow the plan but can't coach one. Very frustrating to see and then every postgame  he blames the players. 

[billiken_roy]

Just now, billikenblue said:

As I mentioned in  this thread Ford was a successful point guard but doesn't know how to translate his skills into COACHING offense. He may be a classic case of an athlete who could follow the plan but can't coach one. Very frustrating to see and then every postgame  he blames the players. 

let's not forget as much as we love our level of billiken talent, it isnt at the level that ford played with at kentucky.   the likes of jamal mashburn and tony delk could beat teams one on one consistently.   i dont know if we have a jamal mashburn on this team.   

[Littlebill]

26 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

Usage rate is an important variable. People compare Yuri's TO rate to other PGs without comparing other PGs roles to Yuri's. It isn't apples to apples. That being said, no I don't want to play devil's advocate for 7 turnovers but sometimes you have to. 

Of those 7 turnovers I'd say 3 of them weren't Yuri's fault, can specifically remember being furious at a low-post entry pass to Okoro who just big-man fumbled the ball and it led to a transition layup on the other end. When complaining about turnovers we owe it to one of the best PGs SLU has ever seen to acknowledge when guilty by association.  

The 7 isn't including the 3+ shots he took inside that didn't have a prayer and got blocked. Those are essentially turnovers

[billikenblue]

28 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

let's not forget as much as we love our level of billiken talent, it isnt at the level that ford played with at kentucky.   the likes of jamal mashburn and tony delk could beat teams one on one consistently.   i dont know if we have a jamal mashburn on this team.   

I did not say anything about talent ..the point is  that it is different being coached then translating the knowledge to others no matter your duccess as a player. Many successful players aren't great "game" coaches and Ford may fall into the same category. 

[billiken_roy]

3 minutes ago, billikenblue said:

I did not say anything about talent ..the point is  that it is different being coached then translating the knowledge to others no matter your duccess as a player. Many successful players aren't great "game" coaches and Ford may fall into the same category. 

But he is a very good recruiter

[brianstl]

34 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

The 7 isn't including the 3+ shots he took inside that didn't have a prayer and got blocked. Those are essentially turnovers

As bad as Yuri was in the first half,  he was pretty damn good in the second half.  If he hadn't picked up his fourth foul, I think we win last night.

[Littlebill]

1 minute ago, brianstl said:

As bad as Yuri was in the first half,  he was pretty damn good in the second half.  If he hadn't picked up his fourth foul, I think we win last night.

I agree with this - what did we cut it down to? 3? 4?

[johnbj14]

6 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

But he is a very good recruiter

Yep. At the level SLU is, a hire will either be a good recruiter or a good in game coach. There are very few guys out there that can do both, and they land at top 25 jobs once it is realized how special they are. Overall I like Travis and think he’s done a good job rebuilding the program, but these tough games are unfortunately a thing we will always have. 

[billiken_roy]

2 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Yep. At the level SLU is, a hire will either be a good recruiter or a good in game coach. There are very few guys out there that can do both, and they land at top 25 jobs once it is realized how special they are. Overall I like Travis and think he’s done a good job rebuilding the program, but these tough games are unfortunately a thing we will always have. 

but i tell myself, as much as he lacks game coaching and player development, he has put us in a place year in and year out we contend and have tourney hopes.   at this point in time, i'll take that over starting over.   he's my coach as far as i care!

[NH]

I have plenty of complaints about Ford's coaching (we never shoot enough 3s, he loses composure, reverts to bully ball whenever things get tough), but I will continue to push back on the idea that he's a terrible Xs and Os coach or that we have a fundamentally bad offensive plan. I did not like the plan of attack yesterday (we needed to get the ball out of Yuri's hands quicker, fewer ball screens and more ball movement, the d was clearly letting us drive to the help which was usually Holmes and we often settled for giving them that). But I think that the offense under Ford has generally improved a lot during his tenure. For reference, see below for our KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency rank for the past 11 seasons:

2022: 69
2021: 50
2020: 111
2019: 214
2018: 225
2017: 324
2016: 310
2015: 311
2014: 168
2013: 71
2012: 34
 

Ford's numbers the past two seasons are up there with the best offensive teams Majerus/Crews had (although our defense is not nearly as good as those teams). I think some of the reason for the offensive improvement in Ford's tenure is because of recruiting and personnel, and some of it is because of better game planning and coaching. According to ShotQuality, a tool that a lot of teams are using these days to measure the kinds of shots a team is getting, we have the 58th highest shot quality in the nation. 

Here is an article I found interesting on the topic of shot selection, and you can see that by their metric, our overall shot selection process (taking good shots on offense and forcing tough shots on defense) is 15th in the country: https://shotquality.com/article/6.

I think it's reasonable to criticize Ford for any number of things, especially from game to game. But I do think there are a lot worse offensive and defensive coaches than Ford, and that all is not lost from a tactical perspective.

[AnkielBreakers]

38 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

I agree with this - what did we cut it down to? 3? 4?

4. It is possible that we could have won. We really needed two more buckets to fall. It at least would have avoided that painful stretch where Nesbitt turned it over. It is tough to play point guard in the clutch, if you do not do it very much. Over this next stretch, I hope the coaching staff dedicates more time to Nesbitt as the PG. If Jones is physically outmatched, then Nesbitt becomes the best backup option.

[NH]

44 minutes ago, brianstl said:

As bad as Yuri was in the first half,  he was pretty damn good in the second half.  If he hadn't picked up his fourth foul, I think we win last night.

I would agree other than to say that his first two fouls in the second half were dumb fouls, even if they were a little ticky-tacky. He is our best player and team leader, he needs to cut out the silly fouls on mid-range jump shots.

[Bay Area Billiken]

After the first half yank of Hargrove at 5:01, SLU was outscored 12-7 to end the first half.  Prior to the yank, Hargrove had hit 3 3-pointers.

After the second half yank of Nesbitt at 12:13, SLU was outscored 8-4 before he was put back in the game at 9:06.  After Yuri Collins was assessed his 4th foul at 11:39, SLU trailed 43-40.  For the next 2:33, the SLU lineup consisted of Jones, Thatch, Hargrove, Jimerson and Okoro, with Nesbitt still on the bench.  During those 2:33, SLU was outscored 8-2.

The sum of the 2 yanks:  SLU was outscored 20-11.  SLU lost the game by 5 points.

 

[Cowboy II]

-we do not play smart which leads to many things including fouling jump shooters, going for every shot fake and not taking care of the ball

-TJ, you made 3 3's and were headed for a monster night, I wanted to see it,  but you had already committed a foul and then commit your second in less than 5 minutes, not smart 

-Yuri, at this point you have to play smarter both in fouls and ball handling and it sure looked to me that on your 5th foul you didn't want to play anymore, I hope I am wrong and there is nothing to this but I didn't like the look of it. the turnovers are more acceptable than the stupid fouls, just not smart

-I question whoever posted about our shot selection, does that just look at where on the floor we shoot or does it also consider who is there to defend? SVU's defense was to allow us to go to the basket because they had two rim protectors there, hence our horrible, absolutely horrible 2pt%

-we were making 3's, making them from the start, and we don't shoot enough because imo we don't have sets to get open looks.  I really don't get our shot selection last night, we had two guys with great but limited 3pt attempts, let's get them more 3pt shots

-it was comical when we tried to call timeout and SVU took the ball and scored, what are we in 4th grade? Skip, no offense if your girls don't do this

-CFord, I am with you, really I am, but careful with your language Careful on saying you will be playing Markhi more and then giving him less than a minute and a very quick hook, careful on the postgame blaming the players but not saying anything about the coaching, 

-we did show heart to open the second half to close the lead, then we get hit with adversity and crumble and the game escapes us

-we'll see where we go from here, season is not over, it could be, depends on what guts and brains we have

 

[Cowboy II]

10 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

After the first half yank of Hargrove at 5:01, SLU was outscored 12-7 to end the first half.  Prior to the yank, Hargrove had hit 3 3-pointers.

After the second half yank of Nesbitt at 12:13, SLU was outscored 8-4 before he was put back in the game at 9:06.  After Yuri Collins was assessed his 4th foul at 11:39, SLU trailed 43-40.  For the next 2:33, the SLU lineup consisted of Jones, Thatch, Hargrove, Jimerson and Okoro, with Nesbitt still on the bench.  During those 2:33, SLU was outscored 8-2.

The sum of the 2 yanks:  SLU was outscored 20-11.  SLU lost the game by 5 points.

 

-TJ gets his second foul at the 15.32 mark, I get he had made 3 3's,  he was on a 13 foul pace at that point, I don't call that a yank by CFord, I do call it not smart by TJ

[NH]

11 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-I question whoever posted about our shot selection, does that just look at where on the floor we shoot or does it also consider who is there to defend? SVU's defense was to allow us to go to the basket because they had two rim protectors there, hence our horrible, absolutely horrible 2pt%

 

It was me who posted that. The ShotQuality metric does NOT consider who is the defender (I think it would be basically impossible to track that for every D1 game). I agree with you that we kept going into Holmes despite showing no ability to finish over/through him. 

In case anyone is curious, here is how various shots grade out based on the ShotQuality metric I linked to above. Keep in mind this is just another data point, as we all know there are so many different factors that go into what truly makes a good shot (time and score, who is shooting, who is defending, etc.)

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

1 hour ago, Cowboy II said:

-TJ gets his second foul at the 15.32 mark, I get he had made 3 3's,  he was on a 13 foul pace at that point, I don't call that a yank by CFord, I do call it not smart by TJ

Hargrove was a yank. Players can play with 2 fouls. An early in the game 2nd foul yank of Monroe Douglass once likely caused SLU to lose an NIT Championship.

In an earlier era 2 fouls did not result in removal from a game; 3 fouls did.

But the bigger, fatal yank, was Nesbitt in the second half, which, coupled with Yuri Collins’ 4th foul, resulted in the absence of a High Division 1 ball handler for 2:08, during which time SLU was outscored by 6 points, 8-2, in a game SLU lost by 5.

[willie]

10 minutes ago, NH said:

It was me who posted that. The ShotQuality metric does NOT consider who is the defender (I think it would be basically impossible to track that for every D1 game). I agree with you that we kept going into Holmes despite showing no ability to finish over/through him. 

In case anyone is curious, here is how various shots grade out based on the ShotQuality metric I linked to above. Keep in mind this is just another data point, as we all know there are so many different factors that go into what truly makes a good shot (time and score, who is shooting, who is defending, etc.)

 

The post-up stat is interesting to me. Maybe coaches should spend more time in getting their big men to pass out of the post. Something Okoro does not know how to do. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

The yanks are small town high school, like little kid timeouts.The yanks don’t happen in the NBA.

Does Steve Kerr yank Steph Curry when he misses a shot (he does miss shots) or commits a turnover (he commits turnovers)? Of course not. Do the fans that pay the freight want to see Steph Curry sitting on the bench because he missed a shot, made a bad pass, or blew a defensive assignment? No they don’t, and the yank does not happen.

[billikenblue]

39 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

After the first half yank of Hargrove at 5:01, SLU was outscored 12-7 to end the first half.  Prior to the yank, Hargrove had hit 3 3-pointers.

After the second half yank of Nesbitt at 12:13, SLU was outscored 8-4 before he was put back in the game at 9:06.  After Yuri Collins was assessed his 4th foul at 11:39, SLU trailed 43-40.  For the next 2:33, the SLU lineup consisted of Jones, Thatch, Hargrove, Jimerson and Okoro, with Nesbitt still on the bench.  During those 2:33, SLU was outscored 8-2.

The sum of the 2 yanks:  SLU was outscored 20-11.  SLU lost the game by 5 points.

 

Spot on. Markhi played like 10 seconds and was yanked when a bad pass was thrown his way and he stepped out if bounds. That was the point Hargrove Sr is making. Quick overreaction lead to stretches with the wrong team on the floor. No nesbitt and Jones is showing he has lost confidence and looked like a deer in headlights but Nesbitt still sat him . Game over. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

32 minutes ago, billikenblue said:

Spot on. Markhi played like 10 seconds and was yanked when a bad pass was thrown his way and he stepped out if bounds. That was the point Hargrove Sr is making. Quick overreaction lead to stretches with the wrong team on the floor. No nesbitt and Jones is showing he has lost confidence and looked like a deer in headlights but Nesbitt still sat him . Game over. 

When Yuri was assessed his 4th foul at 11:14, the Coach MUST put Nesbitt back in the game, right there.

[billikenblue]

1 hour ago, NH said:

I have plenty of complaints about Ford's coaching (we never shoot enough 3s, he loses composure, reverts to bully ball whenever things get tough), but I will continue to push back on the idea that he's a terrible Xs and Os coach or that we have a fundamentally bad offensive plan. I did not like the plan of attack yesterday (we needed to get the ball out of Yuri's hands quicker, fewer ball screens and more ball movement, the d was clearly letting us drive to the help which was usually Holmes and we often settled for giving them that). But I think that the offense under Ford has generally improved a lot during his tenure. For reference, see below for our KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency rank for the past 11 seasons:

2022: 69
2021: 50
2020: 111
2019: 214
2018: 225
2017: 324
2016: 310
2015: 311
2014: 168
2013: 71
2012: 34
 

Ford's numbers the past two seasons are up there with the best offensive teams Majerus/Crews had (although our defense is not nearly as good as those teams). I think some of the reason for the offensive improvement in Ford's tenure is because of recruiting and personnel, and some of it is because of better game planning and coaching. According to ShotQuality, a tool that a lot of teams are using these days to measure the kinds of shots a team is getting, we have the 58th highest shot quality in the nation. 

Here is an article I found interesting on the topic of shot selection, and you can see that by their metric, our overall shot selection process (taking good shots on offense and forcing tough shots on defense) is 15th in the country: https://shotquality.com/article/6.

I think it's reasonable to criticize Ford for any number of things, especially from game to game. But I do think there are a lot worse offensive and defensive coaches than Ford, and that all is not lost from a tactical perspective.

 

[billikenblue]

Stats can also indicate talent assembled. Ford and Majerus did. Crews did not. The eye test is also an  indicator of offense and the talent would be even better with improvement in sets , shot selection and consistency in pace . All weaknesses at present 

[Bills By 40]

2 hours ago, Littlebill said:

The 7 isn't including the 3+ shots he took inside that didn't have a prayer and got blocked. Those are essentially turnovers

I agree. The first half was one of Yuri's worst ever as a Billiken IMO. 

2 hours ago, brianstl said:

As bad as Yuri was in the first half,  he was pretty damn good in the second half.  If he hadn't picked up his fourth foul, I think we win last night.

It's at least a hell of a lot closer, and in a close game between those two teams I trust ours to pull it off more often than not.