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The Bills over Rich by 7


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Chance to Dance....
 
The Bills....56%
Dav...........46%
VCU..........45%
 
We continue to hold onto our A-...Rich comes in as a B team...trending at B- .  Coming off a horrible loss to St. J,  Rich looks like a team that is fading. Now is a good time to play them. They have a so-so offense and a weak defense. We will get looks at the basket ... we just need to make shots.  I think if it wasn't for the layoff , we would be favored by double digits.
 
Let's take a look at the report card....
.
....................SLU....................Rich..........................SLU.........................Rich

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A+..18th ITN......C+..............................C..............................D+

FG%...............B+......................B-................................C-............................D

3Pt%.............A-........................B-..............................B-.............................D

FT%...............B+......................D+.................................................................

Reb...............B+.......................F+................................A.............................F+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off....Reb.....Def....Reb

Down....Off...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...unch

FTA/gm....The Bills....3rd....up

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...dn

FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...up

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins...1st...unch...you can't do better than best

Stls......Collins....22nd....up

Rich

Assts....Gilyard...10th

Stls.......Gilyard ...1st 

PPG.......Burton....55th

Least TOs by a team...Richmond ...10th

Injury/ Illness

SLU...updated Dec 30...Williams and Courtney still listed as ill...both listed as questionable for Sun....it is unknown if they will be able to play at this time.

Keys To The Game...

Rich doesn't turn the ball over .

They can't reb.

Gilyard is a steals and assists guy similar to Yuri. Whoever he guards will have to hang onto the ball.  

The Bills are the better team...how will the layoff affect the team?....we haven't played since Dec 18th.
 

WWN2D2W

We need to dominate on rebs...we need to out rebound then by 7 to make the spread...we should be able to able to overpower them by 10+ rebs.  The Bills  need to be able to make some baskets...47/38/75..we will get looks ...the layoff is a concern on the shooting....again the rebs could help in making the baskets...2nd chances.  Burton and Golden are their scorers with Gilyard feeding them.  If we bother them, they could go from a so-so offense to bad.  Hold Burton, Golden  and Gilyard to a combined 33 pts. We need to try and match them on TOs.  While they are great at protecting the ball, we come in at B+ in forcing TOs.  I think that will be good enough to close the TO gap.

Bottom line...Can the Spiders beat us?...No...Can we beat us?...Yes...Play ball (including closing the game out) and we win.

Let's catch the Spiders in a Billiken web.

 

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CenHudDude ---- yes.  Richmond was only down six at half and then the bottom fell out.  The Joeys outscored them 45 to 24 in the second.  All Joey starters were in double figures.  Richmond could not shoot.  Gilyard was 2 of ten with three missed from three.  Sherrod was 2 of 9 with both makes from three.  Burton was 3 of ten.  Golden was 5 of 17.  Overall, at home, Richmond shot 27.8% from the filed and a paltry 18..2 from three.  The Joeys outrebounded them 51 to 36.  

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Coach on tomorrows game. Looks like we may be playing with a short bench  


He did add that players who haven’t previously received opportunities to make contributions likely will play big roles. Fans will begin to get an idea about who can play when they arrive at Chaifetz Arena.’

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A nice win for The Bills and for me....There was uncertainty for SLU which created uncertainty for me.  But the Bills played well enough to win and I nailed the point spread. What you don't  know is I also had the exact score of the game.  Also, not advising people on gambling but anytime you see a 3+ pt difference between me and Vegas....just saying....

It was not always  pretty...but given the circumstances ...a good win.

Let's see what happened....Bolded  statements from original post....

Rich looks like a team that is fading. .... The stats showed  it ....the game proved it

how will the layoff affect the team?....we haven't played since Dec 18th. ..I made this statement because I feared the team would come out rusty....and they did look rusty especially from the arc.  It wasn't just that we didn't have a game since 12/18 but almost no practice. That can make a difference in sharpness.

47/38/75... This was a miss from the arc... with 3 more  3s, we make the slash

We need to dominate on rebs...we need to out rebound then by 7 ... This was a big miss ...we got out rebounded by a poor rebounding team...How did this happen ....2 factors...#1  I think we would have closed the gap had Linssen played... #2  Rust again...It looked to me like we did ok on blocking out but we were a step slow to getting the ball...again rust...we lost a step.

Hold Burton, Golden  and Gilyard to a combined 33 pts. ... This too didn't work out ...BUT... these 3 guys accounted for almost 3/4 of Rich pts and then they shot only 41%....2nd chances got them over 40%...so even though a lot of pts ...we still defended well....The good news is the rest of the team didn't do much...it usually takes more than 3 players to win a game.

Hmm... well then how did we win?  And to go with that question ...How did we close them out in the final minutes with a small lead? The answer to both questions is TOs.

We need to try and match them on TOs.  While they are great at protecting the ball, we come in at B+ in forcing TOs.  I think that will be good enough to close the TO gap. ...The computer showed that they would have 4 less TOs than us...we needed to take care of the ball .  We did...We beat them by 2 TOs and that was the ball game...a swing of 6 TOs in our favor was huge....It wasn't that that they had a bad TO game ...they only had 11...a good number but we had an outstanding 9.... of those 9 ...7 TOs  came in the not so good 1st half.  But only 2 in the 2nd half ...AND NONE IN THE FINAL 13 MIN (which means #1 stealer ITN had none down the stretch) .  And that fellow board members is how you close out a game...all 3 of those blown wins in the last few games featured The Bills turning the ball over in the closing minutes of the game....No TOs in the final 13 mins is how you close a game out.

Bottom line... a good win... even though we were a little off. With a few days of practice (maybe a week) we can sharpen up as we move into the meat of the conference schedule.

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