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The Bills over Mass by 4


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Chance to Dance

The Bills...56%...up

Dav............46%...unch

VCU............42%...dn

 

Aub seems like ages ago.  But the fact remains ...we still had a chance to win that game with 2 seconds left to go.  I can tell you, we don't have anyone left on our schedule that is even close to Aub.   We have the capacity to win all the remaining games.  Our toughest opponent going forward will be ourselves. 

Next up UMass (C+ )...We are still at A-.... For a forecaster these are tough times...as both teams have a number of people on the injury/ illness list.  With all the variables that go into a basketball game not knowing who will play has now moved to the top of the random list.   

This will be an unusual game with some interesting challenges. UMass has a very good offense.. though not as good as ours.  They are 10th ITN in 3P shooting. This is why this game is as close as it is.   If they get hot from the arc, it could spell trouble.  They have four  3 pt shooters...one now is out for the season with a broken leg and another is questionable with illness (see injury/illness report below) But that still leaves the Kellys (CJ and R...not related) both shooting at nearly an unbelievable 50%.  They both take more 3s than 2s.  So it will be important to slow them down.  While there is danger on the horizon, there is also some good news.  UMass has one of the worst defenses ITN.  We will have our opportunities...we just need to capitalize on them.  Another factor, which will be a plus for us, is they aren't vary good at rebounding.   Again,  we need to take advantage of this...2nd chance pts...Bills ..yes...UMass ..no.

Time to look at the report card....

 

....................SLU....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A+..17th ITN......A-..............................C..............................F

FG%...............B+......................B................................C-............................F-..11th WITN

3Pt%.............A-........................A+..10th ITN..............B-............................F

FT%...............B+......................C+.................................................................

Reb...............B+.......................F................................A..............................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off....Reb.....Def....Reb

Down....Off...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P%

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...unch

FTA/gm....The Bills....4th...unch

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...dn

FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...up

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins...1st...unch...you can't do better than best

Stls......Collins....22nd....up

Mass

Assts...Fernandes...29th

3P%...CJ Kelly...78th...R Kelly....91st

 

Injury/ Illness report

SLU

Williams...G...12/26/21... Illness ...Questionable...Remains to be seen if he will play Thur

Courtney..."........".............."....................".........................."...................."....................".............

Mass

Walker.........F...12/7/21...Fractured Femur...Out for season

Fernandes..G....12/26/21...Illness...Questionable...Remains to be seen if he will play Thur

TJ Weeks....G.........".............."................."........................."......................"................."..............

Long way to go till game day...I will update the injury/illness report if things change.

WWN2D2W

Stop the 3...Keep them as a team below 40% from the arc. Slow the Kellys down...keep them to 21 pts combined...hold the next 2 high scorers not named Kelly to 21 combined also. We need to dominate the boards ..by at least 5...we should be able to go double digits.  TOs  could be an issue...not because they are adept at forcing them but because they are good at holding onto the ball...no more than 12 TOs. 

Bottom line ...This has the potential to be a high scoring game...a shootout ...a battle of the 3s.  If we play perimeter defense and grab some rebs ...the Minutemen's time may run out.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

Can we win a 50/50 game on the road in conference?

We beat Boise State on the road.  Boise State is a better team than UMass.  That’s not a guarantee we’ll beat UMass because it’s one game and anything can happen.  It does show we can win a road game vs a good team though.

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1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

We beat Boise State on the road.  Boise State is a better team than UMass.  That’s not a guarantee we’ll beat UMass because it’s one game and anything can happen.  It does show we can win a road game vs a good team though.

And we beat Boise in OT...the ultimate close out game... at one of the tougher venues in the country....

The Bills have a 66% chance to beat Mass at their place.

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Sure ...... I hear you both.  But over the last four years, the Billikens are 12 and 19 on the road in conference play.  Every year, I map out the schedule and games and see these kind of games as the 50/50 or "swing" games.  Win a few swing games and you are on your way.  Every year is a new year BUT until the Bill sshow me proof and actually win on the road in conference, I will hold my breath.  The holidays.  COVID.  No game since 12/22.  Lots of reasons to hold breath on this one.

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2 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Sure ...... I hear you both.  But over the last four years, the Billikens are 12 and 19 on the road in conference play.  Every year, I map out the schedule and games and see these kind of games as the 50/50 or "swing" games.  Win a few swing games and you are on your way.  Every year is a new year BUT until the Bill sshow me proof and actually win on the road in conference, I will hold my breath.  The holidays.  COVID.  No game since 12/22.  Lots of reasons to hold breath on this one.

I do the same...In my preseason forecast I always show 3 W-L records...best case , worst case and most probable....These are not always 50-50 games but games that are close enough that the could go either way.  The best case shows we win them all ....the worst case shows we lose them all....or most probable shows we split them.  in this year's forecast, there were 6 maybe games.  In my probable forecast, I use 3-3...I then force the computer to make a choice and it showed us 4-2.   So far, we are 1-1-1 against against Boise, Aub and Drake....although right before the Drake cancellation the model moved the outcome to a win for SLU...too bad, that would have been a nice win.

UMass is NOT one of those "swing games. That game was showing in the win column in the preseason forecast and is still in that column now.  As I pointed out in my original post and slu72 emphasized in his post above,  their  3 point shot could come up and bite us.  I am showing they will make a eleven 3's.  If they make more than that , we may have a problem. Again, as I pointed out in the original post, as long as we get the rebounds , we should be OK...more 2nd chances for us and less for them. 

You and slu72 can now come in off the ledge.

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38 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-they are 7th ITN in 3pt% at basically 40%, we shoot 35

-they are very efficient on offense (high effective FG% and low turnovers) and terrible on defense

-yet the Wiz and KenPom have us to win   

-what Bills team shows up in Amherst?

And how do the Bills play the last 5 minutes of the game. 

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I'm not on a ledge ...... I am being very calm but realistic.  I've seen too many times us go to places like Pittsburgh, Olean and Davdison with superior talented teams and still lose.  So bear with me while I wait to see results.

Now, larry72, yeah .. he's a ledge walker for sure.

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15 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I'm not on a ledge ...... I am being very calm but realistic.  I've seen too many times us go to places like Pittsburgh, Olean and Davdison with superior talented teams and still lose.  So bear with me while I wait to see results.

Now, larry72, yeah .. he's a ledge walker for sure.

almost every road game is difficult, not just for the Bills...

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14 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I'm not on a ledge ...... I am being very calm but realistic.  I've seen too many times us go to places like Pittsburgh, Olean and Davdison with superior talented teams and still lose.  So bear with me while I wait to see results.

Now, larry72, yeah .. he's a ledge walker for sure.

Every game. 

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