The Wiz's Preconference Forecast

[The Wiz]

Now that the Mason game has been cancelled. I can get started on the preconference  forecast a little sooner.  Speaking of cancelled, the A-10 has had 20 games cancelled so far this year...11% of the season....Day and Rich have both played full schedules...the rest have missed 1-3 games.   I still have enough games to make a forecast. We should be up to  full data again after the Jan 5th game....assuming no more games are cancelled. 

+ = how many steps a team has improved from preseason....  - = how many steps a team has decreased....up to a 2 step variance is normal ...preconference to season end...1 step is normal....While St B and Rich are currently not in the running they are still close enough with a good run to get back in the race....  The others are deemed too far back at this point to make it.

Preseason.............Preconference..........Chance 2 Dance

1...St. B.....A...................SLU...A- (+1)..............55%

2...SLU.....B+.................Dav....B+ (+1).............46%

3...Day......B+.................VCU...B+ (unch)........43%

4...Rich.....B+..................Rich...B+ (unch)....can still improve for C2D

5...VCU.....B+..................St. B...B+ ( -2).......can still improve for C2D

6...Dav......B.....................Day...B ( -1)

7...RI..........B.....................RI......B....unch

8...GM,,,,,,,B-...................GM...B ( +1)

9...Mass....B-....................Mass C+ ( -1)

10...Duq.....C+...................St. J....C+...unch

11...St. J.....C+....................Duq....C ( -1)

12...LaS......C.......................Ford D+ ( +2)

13...GW.......D+.....................GW D+ unch

14...Ford.....D-......................LaS D+ ( -2)

No big surprises...all teams fall within the 2 step range....Biggest improvement... though still lacking....Fordham....Biggest disappointment so far...St. B & LaS

Here is hoping we play a full conf schedule 

Go Bills

[Old guy]

I hope I am wrong but it appears that the regs for Covid are stricter at SLU than at many  other teams. Most teams would have left the player that tested positive behind and go ahead and play the game against Drake, but not SLU, oh no. We have to be stricter than others, so we are likely to play less games than other teams will this season. This kind of a thing affected SLU very significantly in the second part of the 20-21 season, we will see what happens this season. Again I hope I am wrong but I doubt very much we will play a full conference schedule this season.

[dlarry]

 

Bills figure out how to close out games and kicks some major ass.

[Taj79]

According to the items in the Wiz's other article on COVID, the A10 has a policy of "8-and-1."  In short, if a team has 8 players (scholarships and non) and one coach available to play, the game is on.  Which means having one player like was announced for Vegas would have no affect on a conference game.  The kid is quarantined.  Not the whole team or whole program.  Although my interpretation may be completely wrong.  Who the fuok knows?

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU is the best team in the A10, needs to show it on the court. The A10 and the NCAA automatic bid are there to be had.

 

[3star_recruit]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU is the best team in the A10, needs to show it on the court. The A10 and the NCAA automatic bid are there to be had.

 

The best team in the league is the hardest team to beat.  A team that can be beaten by double teaming its point guard in the backcourt can't be the best team in the league.  A team whose leading scorer disappears against athletic teams can't be the best team in the league.  A lot of our hopes are pinned on Nesbitt figuring it out just like it was three years ago with Tramaine Isabell.  That's a lot to put on a freshman.

[billiken_roy]

14 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

The best team in the league is the hardest team to beat.  A team that can be beaten by double teaming its point guard in the backcourt can't be the best team in the league.  A team whose leading scorer disappears against athletic teams can't be the best team in the league.  A lot of our hopes are pinned on Nesbitt figuring it out just like it was three years ago with Tramaine Isabell.  That's a lot to put on a freshman.

however i have read quotes from jordan where one could read between the lines he believes he is talented enough to be that.   well he has the opportunity and i have confidence from watching him he really isnt that far from becoming the goto guy that can finish games and be "the man".   

but i agree it is a lot to pin on him as just a freshman.   it will be exciting to watch him emerge.   

[BilliesBy40]

It is hard to take someone seriously if they claim we have a 55% chance to make the NCAA tournament at this point 

[Bay Area Billiken]

45 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

The best team in the league is the hardest team to beat.  A team that can be beaten by double teaming its point guard in the backcourt can't be the best team in the league.  A team whose leading scorer disappears against athletic teams can't be the best team in the league.  A lot of our hopes are pinned on Nesbitt figuring it out just like it was three years ago with Tramaine Isabell.  That's a lot to put on a freshman.

In part my assessment of SLU being best in the A10 is by process of elimination, by default.

I saw Davidson in person play USF-CA at Chase Center in SF. Davidson is the same team it always is, the presence of a Steph Curry excepted. SLU has better players than Davidson.

St. Bona plays 7 players, has no forwards, is all guards, a Center and a backup Center.

[Reinert310]

4 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

In part my assessment of SLU being best in the A10 is by process of elimination, by default.

I saw Davidson in person play USF-CA at Chase Center in SF. Davidson is the same team it always is, the presence of a Steph Curry excepted. SLU has better players than Davidson.

St. Bona plays 7 players, has no forwards, is all guards, a Center and a backup Center.

Exactly this. I think SLU is the best of a large group of good, not great, teams. I totally get where @3star_recruit is coming from, but I think every other team in the league has at least as many flaws as we do.  That being said, I do not think we’re just going to steamroll the rest of the league. I think almost every game is going to be a grind. We’ve got to figure out who we can count on to go to late in a close game to get us buckets. Right now, we don’t have an answer to that question. Doesn’t mean it won’t be answered at some point in the next few months, but we don’t have answer right now.

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

16 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Now that the Mason game has been cancelled. I can get started on the preconference  forecast a little sooner.  Speaking of cancelled, the A-10 has had 20 games cancelled so far this year...11% of the season....Day and Rich have both played full schedules...the rest have missed 1-3 games.   I still have enough games to make a forecast. We should be up to  full data again after the Jan 5th game....assuming no more games are cancelled. 

+ = how many steps a team has improved from preseason....  - = how many steps a team has decreased....up to a 2 step variance is normal ...preconference to season end...1 step is normal....While St B and Rich are currently not in the running they are still close enough with a good run to get back in the race....  The others are deemed too far back at this point to make it.

Preseason.............Preconference..........Chance 2 Dance

1...St. B.....A...................SLU...A- (+1)..............55%

2...SLU.....B+.................Dav....B+ (+1).............46%

3...Day......B+.................VCU...B+ (unch)........43%

4...Rich.....B+..................Rich...B+ (unch)....can still improve for C2D

5...VCU.....B+..................St. B...B+ ( -2).......can still improve for C2D

6...Dav......B.....................Day...B ( -1)

7...RI..........B.....................RI......B....unch

8...GM,,,,,,,B-...................GM...B ( +1)

9...Mass....B-....................Mass C+ ( -1)

10...Duq.....C+...................St. J....C+...unch

11...St. J.....C+....................Duq....C ( -1)

12...LaS......C.......................Ford D+ ( +2)

13...GW.......D+.....................GW D+ unch

14...Ford.....D-......................LaS D+ ( -2)

No big surprises...all teams fall within the 2 step range....Biggest improvement... though still lacking....Fordham....Biggest disappointment so far...St. B & LaS

Here is hoping we play a full conf schedule 

Go Bills

Wiz, is the Change to Dance the current, i.e. SLU has a 55% chance to make the NCAA Tourney?

[Bay Area Billiken]

It seems to me 6 A10 teams are really in the running:  SLU, St. Bona, VCU, Dayton, Davidson, and Richmond.  Richmond has that veteran team, but I doubt the Spiders make it.  Dayton is a Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hide Wild Card.  I'd like to think VCU's Havoc cannot sustain long term, not all the way to the A10 Tourney title.  So that pits SLU's talent vs. the sly foxes on the sidelines at St. Bona and Davidson.  Although the Bonnies have been slumping, we can't count out Mark Schmidt straightening out the Bona snowmobiles.

[CBFan]

1 hour ago, BilliesBy40 said:

It is hard to take someone seriously if they claim we have a 55% chance to make the NCAA tournament at this point 

Well tell us your well thought out points like the wiz does on why they don’t have a 55 percent chance to make the dance.

Bad post.

[BilliesBy40]

9 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Well tell us your well thought out points like the wiz does on why they don’t have a 55 percent chance to make the dance.

Bad post.

Sure. We blew our chances for “good” wins (in the committee’s eyes) during non-conference. Let’s say we have a great conference run and finish 14-4. That would not be enough to get us an at-large bid due to our lack of quality non-conference wins. So we would need to win the conference tournament. Even as the #1 seed, our chances of winning the conference tournament would be lower than 55%. With that, plus the likelihood of finishing 1st in the conference regular season, I would put our chances of making the NCAA tournament around 20%.

We are good, but the three blown losses will haunt us all season.

Edit: According to TeamRankings, we have a 19% chance to make the NCAA tournament. They give us a 15% chance at an auto-bid.

[Brighton]

1 hour ago, BilliesBy40 said:

It is hard to take someone seriously if they claim we have a 55% chance to make the NCAA tournament at this point 

I like and respect Wiz, but I think he’s had one too many eggnogs lately.

[The Wiz]

56 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Wiz, is the Change to Dance the current, i.e. SLU has a 55% chance to make the NCAA Tourney?

Yes ...as of today....based on what we have done ...what we are projected to do...and what the other 357 other teams  have done and are projected to do.

[CenHudDude]

10 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Yes ...as of today....based on what we have done ...what we are projected to do...and what the other 357 other teams are have done and are projected to do.

Nobody beats the Wiz.

[cheeseman]

20 hours ago, Old guy said:

I hope I am wrong but it appears that the regs for Covid are stricter at SLU than at many  other teams. Most teams would have left the player that tested positive behind and go ahead and play the game against Drake, but not SLU, oh no. We have to be stricter than others, so we are likely to play less games than other teams will this season. This kind of a thing affected SLU very significantly in the second part of the 20-21 season, we will see what happens this season. Again I hope I am wrong but I doubt very much we will play a full conference schedule this season.

I would think the regs for COVID at SLU for players is consistent with the A10.  That cancelation with Drake was a bit cryptic.  Not really sure what the deal was - maybe both teams just didn't want to go or the organizers were trying to save money - who knows.

[Reinert310]

13 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

I would think the regs for COVID at SLU for players is consistent with the A10.  That cancelation with Drake was a bit cryptic.  Not really sure what the deal was - maybe both teams just didn't want to go or the organizers were trying to save money - who knows.

I don’t feel like digging up an old tweet on Christmas Eve, but I believe either Carter or Stu tweeted at some point that it was more about the travel to Vegas than having enough player to put on the court, but I could be wrong.

[Old guy]

5 hours ago, cheeseman said:

I would think the regs for COVID at SLU for players is consistent with the A10.  That cancelation with Drake was a bit cryptic.  Not really sure what the deal was - maybe both teams just didn't want to go or the organizers were trying to save money - who knows.

You are guessing about the A10 rules but you can be correct, someone posted that a full 30% of the cancellations involve A10. It follows that A10 may have stricter rules than the other leagues.

[cheeseman]

8 hours ago, Old guy said:

You are guessing about the A10 rules but you can be correct, someone posted that a full 30% of the cancellations involve A10. It follows that A10 may have stricter rules than the other leagues.

Not necessarily. The schools could just be in the eye of the hurricane now. The post that had the NCAA interview on the topic indicated that the A10 was following the same as other conferences

[HoosierPal]

This is a good place to park this list.  SBUnfurled uses a formula to rank players.  You may or may not agree with his formula, but it is pretty much objective.  If I was voting on the A10 OOC MVP, my top candidate would be Burton.  Look at the league stats and you will see his name among the leaders in many categories.

If you look at the Billiken Advanced Stats, you will find Linssen grades out high in most categories.

 

[3star_recruit]

Our team is comprised of a bunch of specialists and our lack of representation on this list certainly reflects that.