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The Wiz

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I have received a number of questions from posters on the board....I thought I would reprint this one with the the permission of the poster.   The poster's message is  not only a good summary of questions I have received but brings up a number of issues that have been raised on the main board.....

Poster's message....

I really appreciate all your analysis and think you have been spot on with this year's team...that said, what have you seen that gives hope that this season doesn't end like last year? Without JP, this is a pretty average basketball team that has no reliable scoring weapon (Jimerson disappears the second someone guards him, and the bigs aren't enough of a factor offensively to change that). The resume so far is a tough read...OK win @ Boise State, 2 deplorable home losses to UAB and Belmont, and a blown opportunity vs. Auburn. The A-10 is horrid this year, so it seems we'd need 16+ wins with this non-conference performance to be an at large (the other option is winning the A-10 tournament). I personally think right now the Billikens are a Thursday light uniform team in the A-10 (5-8), with a chance at a top 4 seed. I do think we have Richmond's number since we have outphysicaled them for a while now...but the Bonnies are better than SLU, VCU is better than SLU, and one can make the argument that Dayton is as well (yes, they have 3 awful losses, but they also beat KU who would run roughshod over the A-10). 

It seems like the program has hit a glass ceiling under Travis Ford where they may contend for a spot but won't often get one...losing JP was huge for many reasons (especially in a game he had no business playing in). Yes, I still hold a grudge against Ford for last year's complete waste of 2 4 year starters and a healthy JP because I don't think a leopard can change his spots. 

Happy Holidays to you and yours, and may the numbers be kind to SLU going forward. 

 

My response...

Thanks for your note ...

I will try to answer your questions from an analytical point of view rather than opinion or observation.  Bold statements are from your post....

Without JP, this is a pretty average basketball team that has no reliable scoring weapon.  No question , it is hard to replace JP numbers, not to mention the added depth that  would have been so valuable ...especially in the closing out of games. He would have added another offensive weapon  plus another player to  spread out the minutes and allow some players to rest a little.  But even without JP we are still one of the better offensive teams ITN.

 2 deplorable home losses to UAB and Belmont, and a blown opportunity vs. Auburn.....First those were all painful losses  because we could have won them all  and they slipped away at the end. But a painful loss is different than a deplorable loss. The computer looks at those 3 games  as quality losses...close losses to good teams. It sees UAB, Belmont and Aub and grades them as  B+...B+  and A+...It sees 3 potential Dance teams...chance to Dance...53%..51%  and 99% and finally it sees us losing  by 5  and 5 and 4.  A total of 14 pts to 3 potential Tourney teams and thinks we have played them fairly even.  We can play with them....and in fact,  not only did we not lose ground numbers wise but actually gained a little after the Aub loss.  Also we did have a win in there against BC...while not a great team , they are an above average team (B- )   Forgetting about the outcome of those games for a moment....Suppose I told you on Dec 3  (right before the UAB game) that on Dec 19th we would be in about the same place numbers wise for a chance to Dance. And further, that after these 4 games , we would be the best in the A-10.   Would you take that ?....Maybe you would  or would not.  Then I tell you we will lose 3 of the next 4 games.  Would you then take it? My guess is that you would....And that is exactly what has happened. We have lost 3 of 4  and we are in about the same place as we were on Dec 3.

The A-10 is horrid this year ...I don't agree  with this statement...We are a B league this year.   over the years the A-10 has generally been B or B+. I don't have any numbers from last year because the numbers were messed up by Covid.  But 2 years ago was the worst season for the A-10 (since the Bills have been in the league ...2005 ).  In fact the last few years have been down...2021-22 is shaping up as the best year for the league since 2015-16.    The hot years for the league were 2012-13 & 2013- 2014.  Again I am talking about league overall quality. There is more parity in the A-10 and Leagues  overall in D1.  Leagues are not as top heavy anymore  which makes them seem watered down. In the A-10 the bottom and middle have come up and the top has come down.

 the Bonnies are better than SLU, VCU is better than SLU, and one can make the argument that Dayton is as well (yes, they have 3 awful losses, but they also beat KU who would run roughshod over the A-10).... Again the computer disagrees with you....At least as of now , we are the best team in the A-10...That doesn't mean we will go undefeated in the conference....The model is showing 4 losses to.... St. B,  Day,  Rich and Dav...all away.   Also, currently showing a sweep of all the rest of the  home games.

I think that answers most of your questions...

I did try entering....a glass ceiling under Travis Ford.... hold a grudge against Ford ....complete waste of 2 4 year starters ...and it came up as ...did not compute. When I entered don't think a leopard can change his spots.  It said ...see Zoo

Wishing you a Happy and Healthy  Holiday to you and yours.  May Santa bring you NCAA tickets to see The Bills play in March.

Poster

Well done sir...The last paragraph or so was me being honest about my lack of objectivity towards Travis Ford. Knowing how SLU operates, firing Ford would lead to Jim Crews 2.0. I really like your December 3rd analysis...

If we are around 50% to Dance, does that also mean 50% to the NIT, or is this also factoring in the disaster scenario of a sub-.500 season in A10 play? 

My response...

I think I know what you are trying to ask here....If the Bills have a 50% chance of making The Dance...then they have a 99%  chance of making the NIT.  ( the poster said that was what he was asking and that I did answer his question.)

 

 

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"Knowing how SLU operates, firing Ford would lead to Jim Crews 2.0"

totally agree and exactly why i am a proponent of being patient and acceptant of Travis Ford weaknesses as our coach.   

i think we all agree he is a very very good recruiter.   and i proclaim he is an excellent motivator that allows him to overcome a lot of his shortcomings as well.  so rather than another startover with an unknown of what is going to come out of a new coach's vision and results, i'll take Ford as he is and hope he eventually will see the light of his shortcomings and make some sort of adjustment and/or change(s).   meanwhile i think as long as we have ford, we are always going to be at least on the cusp of a tourney spot.  

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I like that our fans our expecting more from this team than the week we all learned Perkins season was lost.

 I still expect 22 D1 wins for this team.  This team continues to improve when you compare the way they played Memphis to the way they played Auburn.

Okoro’s offense is one of the biggest improvements I have seen.  His offensive numbers against Auburn shows improvement.

Yuri’s game has improved since hitting rock bottom with the turnovers.

Hargrove’s offensive game looks better and since the team really needs another 3 point shooter I hope the coaches setup more plays for Hargrove to shoot.

What I did not expect was that the team was not as deep with 3 point shooters as I thought.  Thatch has not been effective 3 point shooter so far this season and Williams and Lorentsson cannot get on the floor.

I have noticed with Jones at pre-game shoot around really struggling with his 3 point shot he still has a .414 3 point shooting average.

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I'm not sure why Jim Crews 2.0 is your default view of a new hire. 

In hindsight, I wish we kept Porter Moser.  However,  over the last 25 years we've had,  Spoon, Romar, Soderberg, Majerus,  Crews, Ford.

Spoon was good to great. 

Romar was average to good

Soderberg was average to bad

Majerus was great

Crews was bad

Ford is good

Crews hiring happened due to Majerus health and the circumstances of the time.   So he might not/ probably wouldn't have been hired otherwise.

 

I'm not advocating firing Ford but this Eyore view of SLU hiring isn't based in reality.   I think May's has hired well.  Soccer going well,  WBB good,  BB good and Ford remains to be seen but ok so far.  If we continue to never win a NCAA game,  never upset anybody,  and only make the dance 1 of 5 years average then maybe we think about changing. 

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I have to agree that your assessment of Soderberg is fair.  That said, I still remember him fondly and remember his teams fondly.  Lisch, Lidell, Ian, Luke Meyer, and others certainly help with that feeling.

I enjoyed his teams.  The Bills NIT win over Iowa is a great memory.  We had some really exciting and fun games against an entertaining Xavier team (albeit that never seemed to end in a W).

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1 hour ago, TheA_Bomb said:

I'm not sure why Jim Crews 2.0 is your default view of a new hire. 

In hindsight, I wish we kept Porter Moser.  However,  over the last 25 years we've had,  Spoon, Romar, Soderberg, Majerus,  Crews, Ford.

Spoon was good to great. 

Romar was average to good

Soderberg was average to bad

Majerus was great

Crews was bad

Ford is good

Crews hiring happened due to Majerus health and the circumstances of the time.   So he might not/ probably wouldn't have been hired otherwise.

 

I'm not advocating firing Ford but this Eyore view of SLU hiring isn't based in reality.   I think May's has hired well.  Soccer going well,  WBB good,  BB good and Ford remains to be seen but ok so far.  If we continue to never win a NCAA game,  never upset anybody,  and only make the dance 1 of 5 years average then maybe we think about changing. 

From my view, I think we’re at least trending upward under Ford. Taking all circumstances into consideration, each team Ford has put on the floor has gotten better from the year before. This team is an exception, but that’s to be expected when you lose three seniors that make up the majority of your points and rebounds. Even then, he’s built the team we have now to be even better next season and for the future with guys like Nesbitt.

Now if we start to plateau after this season? Then it’s time to consider our options.

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I think TF is a good fit for SLU. Can we do better? Maybe. But we can do a lot worse. I still think if you look at his last 12 months his luck has been terrible. Last year's Covid shutdown, followed by the death of FS, and the JP injury. That is a lot to overcome emotionally. The A-10 is a league that can be won with talent and average coaching and a little luck. we have 2 of the 3  and the last has been a big negative. Just average luck and i think we will be just fine. 

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24 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

I have to agree that your assessment of Soderberg is fair.  That said, I still remember him fondly and remember his teams fondly.  Lisch, Lidell, Ian, Luke Meyer, and others certainly help with that feeling.

I enjoyed his teams.  The Bills NIT win over Iowa is a great memory.  We had some really exciting and fun games against an entertaining Xavier team (albeit that never seemed to end in a W).

I think Brad was a good coach but a crappy recruiter. 

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2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

"Knowing how SLU operates, firing Ford would lead to Jim Crews 2.0"

totally agree and exactly why i am a proponent of being patient and acceptant of Travis Ford weaknesses as our coach.   

i think we all agree he is a very very good recruiter.   and i proclaim he is an excellent motivator that allows him to overcome a lot of his shortcomings as well.  so rather than another startover with an unknown of what is going to come out of a new coach's vision and results, i'll take Ford as he is and hope he eventually will see the light of his shortcomings and make some sort of adjustment and/or change(s).   meanwhile i think as long as we have ford, we are always going to be at least on the cusp of a tourney spot.  

In addition to all of that, Ford's contract was renewed last year, so I will probably be very expensive to fire him at this time.

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14 minutes ago, Old guy said:

In addition to all of that, Ford's contract was renewed last year, so I will probably be very expensive to fire him at this time.

i absolutely do not want to fire Travis Ford.   that would be a huge mistake imo. 

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8 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

i absolutely do not want to fire Travis Ford.   that would be a huge mistake imo. 

Neither do I Roy, and I do not think they are about to do this either. I would rather have a mediocre coach that is a superlative talent recruiter, than a superb coach that cannot recruit. And, of course, in the game of looking for a new coach we could wind up with one that is a bad coach and cannot recruit either. I much prefer Travis Ford to the alternatives.

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I’m curious why anyone thinks the Bonnies or VCU or Dayton are so much better than us right now, because I just don’t see it. The Bonnies just got absolutely torched by Virginia Tech and really haven’t put 2 halves of basketball together against any team except maybe Marquette, who is realistically 1 of the worst teams in the Big East. VCU has lost to every decent team they’ve played save Syracuse in a MTE game. Dayton has, by far, the best win of any A10 team, but also 3 Quad 4 home losses. My point being that every team in the league this year has been just as frustratingly inconsistent as we have, but we really don’t have any truly bad losses. The UAB and Belmont games were bad because we shouldn’t have lost, but they’re also both potentially tournament teams. I get an email from teamrankings.com after each of our games and they have is as the best team in the A10 too. I understand the frustration, I really do. But we lost our best player in the first exhibition game. That’s not anybody’s fault. We’ve had to find a whole new identity on the fly, with no time to prepare. And it’s not just people drinking the blue kool-aid who have us as the best team in the A10 right now. Take a step back, loosen up, take a breath, and let’s enjoy conference play. It’s gonna be crazy.

D73F96F5-7AB4-45CF-B05A-DB9B9CF94C93.jpeg

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30 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

I’m curious why anyone thinks the Bonnies or VCU or Dayton are so much better than us right now, because I just don’t see it. The Bonnies just got absolutely torched by Virginia Tech and really haven’t put 2 halves of basketball together against any team except maybe Marquette, who is realistically 1 of the worst teams in the Big East. VCU has lost to every decent team they’ve played save Syracuse in a MTE game. Dayton has, by far, the best win of any A10 team, but also 3 Quad 4 home losses. My point being that every team in the league this year has been just as frustratingly inconsistent as we have, but we really don’t have any truly bad losses. The UAB and Belmont games were bad because we shouldn’t have lost, but they’re also both potentially tournament teams. I get an email from teamrankings.com after each of our games and they have is as the best team in the A10 too. I understand the frustration, I really do. But we lost our best player in the first exhibition game. That’s not anybody’s fault. We’ve had to find a whole new identity on the fly, with no time to prepare. And it’s not just people drinking the blue kool-aid who have us as the best team in the A10 right now. Take a step back, loosen up, take a breath, and let’s enjoy conference play. It’s gonna be crazy.

D73F96F5-7AB4-45CF-B05A-DB9B9CF94C93.jpeg

We gave away three W’s in a row.  Win 2 of those and we are a likely at large team.  Win all 3 and we are a definite at large team.  Now the program for all intents and purposes has to bank it’s chances on winning the conference tournament.  That is a situation where you are an injury or one cold shooting night away from being relegated to the NIT even if you are the best team in the conference.

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14 minutes ago, brianstl said:

We gave away three W’s in a row.  Win 2 of those and we are a likely at large team.  Win all 3 and we are a definite at large team.  Now the program for all intents and purposes has to bank it’s chances on winning the conference tournament.  That is a situation where you are an injury or one cold shooting night away from being relegated to the NIT even if you are the best team in the conference.

Understood. But how is that any different than any other team in this league?

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40 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

I’m curious why anyone thinks the Bonnies or VCU or Dayton are so much better than us right now, because I just don’t see it. The Bonnies just got absolutely torched by Virginia Tech and really haven’t put 2 halves of basketball together against any team except maybe Marquette, who is realistically 1 of the worst teams in the Big East. VCU has lost to every decent team they’ve played save Syracuse in a MTE game. Dayton has, by far, the best win of any A10 team, but also 3 Quad 4 home losses. My point being that every team in the league this year has been just as frustratingly inconsistent as we have, but we really don’t have any truly bad losses. The UAB and Belmont games were bad because we shouldn’t have lost, but they’re also both potentially tournament teams. I get an email from teamrankings.com after each of our games and they have is as the best team in the A10 too. I understand the frustration, I really do. But we lost our best player in the first exhibition game. That’s not anybody’s fault. We’ve had to find a whole new identity on the fly, with no time to prepare. And it’s not just people drinking the blue kool-aid who have us as the best team in the A10 right now. Take a step back, loosen up, take a breath, and let’s enjoy conference play. It’s gonna be crazy.

D73F96F5-7AB4-45CF-B05A-DB9B9CF94C93.jpeg

I don't necessarily think Bonnies, Dayton, or VCU are better than us.  SLU may very well be #1 in the A10, but I just don't think there is a very big gap between any of the top 7 teams in the A10 (including Rhody, Davidson & Richmond).  SLU isn't in position to get an at-large right now, so they need to perform greatl in A10 play by finishing with 3 or at most 4 losses to get there.  We have road games @Bona, @Dayton, @Davidson, @Richmond, and @Rhody.  We have to win at least one of those probably 2, win out at home & no surprise road losses / let downs (@UMass, @Duq, @Mason, or @LaSalle) or win more than 2 of those tough road games which gives us more breathing room in the other games.  Alternative is to win the A10 tournament which is perhaps more likely if we're the #1 team, but with 7 teams roughly even our odds of winning the whole thing are probably no better than 20% or so.

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1 minute ago, RUBillsFan said:

I don't necessarily think Bonnies, Dayton, or VCU are better than us.  SLU may very well be #1 in the A10, but I just don't think there is a very big gap between any of the top 7 teams in the A10 (including Rhody, Davidson & Richmond).  SLU isn't in position to get an at-large right now, so they need to perform greatl in A10 play by finishing with 3 or at most 4 losses to get there.  We have road games @Bona, @Dayton, @Davidson, @Richmond, and @Rhody.  We have to win at least one of those probably 2, win out at home & no surprise road losses / let downs (@UMass, @Duq, @Mason, or @LaSalle) or win more than 2 of those tough road games which gives us more breathing room in the other games.  Alternative is to win the A10 tournament which is perhaps more likely if we're the #1 team, but with 7 teams roughly even our odds of winning the whole thing are probably no better than 20% or so.

I absolutely agree that the A10 is a muddled mess. And this is is just me, I’m NOT judging anyone who has a different perspective, but I just don’t look at this season from the perspective of: if we make the tournament, the season was a success. If we don’t make the tournament, the season was a failure. I fully understand why other fans do look at it that way. Like I said, it’s not a judgement. The way the league looks, I don’t see ANY team winning 15 conference games, assuming all the games are played. But I’m just saying that I don’t think any team is clearly better than SLU in the A10 right now.

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

We gave away three W’s in a row.  Win 2 of those and we are a likely at large team.  Win all 3 and we are a definite at large team.  Now the program for all intents and purposes has to bank it’s chances on winning the conference tournament.  That is a situation where you are an injury or one cold shooting night away from being relegated to the NIT even if you are the best team in the conference.

One of the prime reasons SLU went to the A10 was the A10 has always been a multi-bid league.  Per the NET, that is no longer the case.  

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11 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

One of the prime reasons SLU went to the A10 was the A10 has always been a multi-bid league.  Per the NET, that is no longer the case.  

For comparison purposes, I checked the RPI, the former ratings used by the NCAA, and the A10 would still have only 1 NCAA team per the RPI.  The difference is Davidson at 52 has the best NET, and Rhode Island at 50 has the best RPI.

Per the NET, 35 of the 68 bids would be going to the Power 5 +1.  Twenty-Two (22) conferences, including the A10, would be 1 bid leagues.

The A10's Conference NET is 9th behind the Power 5 +1, also behind the #7 Mountain West and the #8 AAC, just edging ahead of the #10 WCC, which would have 3 NCAA teams in #4 Gonzaga, #25 BYU, and #34 USF-CA.

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14 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Because we just witnessed our team give away an at large bid by blowing second half leads in 3 out of 4 games. 3 games they gave away the W.

Again, I understand. I didn’t mention our at-large chances once in my post. It was entirely about comparing this Billikens team to every other A10 team, specifically the teams listed in the Wiz’s post to start this thread.

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14 minutes ago, NH said:

The good news is the selection show is in March and not December. 

SLU can improve its own NET by winning.  But that's just it, winning.  Treading water is not going to get it done.  And SLU must protect its home court.

NET's of SLU's 4 losses:  Auburn 10, Belmont 37, UAB 53, @Memphis 54.  SLU's NET is 72.  SLU would be a definite NCAA At Large contender had it won those 3 games in which it had those double digit leads, in the ballpark by winning 2 of them, especially Auburn.

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