Aub over The Bills by 2

[The Wiz]

 

 

First, we will start with...

Chance to Dance

The Bills...55%...dn

St. B..........53%....dn

VCU...........44%....unch

A-10 teams not listed are below 40%

And now on to the game. This will be our toughest game of the year unless we Dance.  No matter how you cut it Auburn is good. AP has them at 13th ITN. And in a rare instance , I too,  have them at 13th.  Needless to say they are rated at A+.  We come in at A-.  Before we go any further , be it known that this is a winnable game. There are some issues we will need to deal with but they are manageable. First let's take a look at the report card,

 

 

....................SLU....................AUB..........................SLU.........................AUB

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A+..15th ITN......A...........................C+.................................B

FG%...............A-......................C.............................C..................................A-

3Pt%.............A........................C+............................B..................................C

FT%...............A-......................B-.................................................................

Reb...............B.......................A-...............................A-................................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off....PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def....Reb...3P%

Down....Off...Reb...Def....none

Team FTs... Top 100 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd

FTA/gm....The Bills....4th

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...1st

FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........7th

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins...2nd...up

Stls......Collins....42nd....up

FG%.....Linssen...83rd....up

Aub

Assts...Green...65th

Stls.....Johnson...35th

Blks.....Kessler...10th

Injuries

Flanigan 10/14/21.. G...Achilles...Flanigan is recovering from Achilles surgery and is expected to return in 2 weeks.

 

So here are the issues for this game....The good news is we are the better team offensively.  As I have pointed out a number of times this year, we are one of the best offensive teams ITN.  The issue in this game as in others will be to not give up our advantage. There are 2 ways we can give up the advantage...shoot poorly or not rebound.  Shooting wise, we just need to have a normal Bills night. On rebounds , I am showing we should be able to match up with them... we should be about even on rebs....We need to convert the should to... need to be even with them on rebs....no 2nd chance shots for Aub.   Here are the road blocks ...Smith ...at 6'10 .. he is not only their best player but one of the top players ITN.  He shoots as well inside as outside...45/44/84 plus 7 rebs/gm. But this isn't the only Bills problem ...there is the other guy...Kessler..7' 1...he is in there to Reb (7 rebs/gm) and blk ( over 3/gm)...Did I mention? ...they will both be playing at the same time.

WWN2D2W... First we need to shoot well...48/39/76...mimimum...50/40/80 would be nice....No mistakes...TOs 11...worst case match them in TOs.  Rebs ...match them..Smith, Johnson and green...hold them to 32 pts.  ...Smith and Kessler ...hold them to 11 rebs.  Don't shoot into the trees...2 blks or less...The numbers in this section are not pie in the sky...they are all doable.

Bottom line.... Yes,  Aub is 13th ITN but they are beatable. The difference between this game  and the others this year is there is no room for error.  We don't need to have an extraordinary game ...we just need to do everything well....all things we are capable of...we just need to put it all  together.  And  last but not least, we need to play  a full 40 min of basketball.  This game may be decided on 1 play....a TO ...a reb... a layup made or missed... Focus...

If we cut down the trees , we can leave the Tigers growling.

[Dr. Holly Hills]

I hope you’re right. Because from the eye test, they look pretty damn tough to beat. 

[Old guy]

I posted the initial portion of this in the Auburn thread, then decided to get averages and post it here.

I do not know if this has any significance or not, but it appears that Auburn plays more players 10+ min per game than SLU does.

Out of 11 games played since the start of their season, Auburn has used 9 players 10+ minutes in 7 games, and 8 players 10+ minutes in 4 games. The average number of minutes per player used 10+ minutes is 19.97 min.

Out of 11 games played since the start of the season, SLU has used 12 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 11 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 10 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 8 players 10+ minutes in 6 games, and 7 players 10+ minutes in two games (the last two games played against Belmont, and BC). The average number of minutes per player used 10+ minutes is 22.74 min.

Overall, SLU plays less players 10+ min/game for a longer amount of time per player/game (22.74 min), than Auburn does. Overall, Auburn plays more players 10+ min/game for a shorter amount of time per player/game (19.97 min).

Over the last 3 games Auburn has played an average of 9 players 10+ min/game (13.48 min average/game), and SLU has played an average of 7.33 players 10+ min/game (26.51 min average/game). In my opinion using more 10+ min players per game for a lower amount of time each (when compared to SLU), may provide increased flexibility to Auburn, and result in increased match up problems for SLU. This is based upon an analysis of all the games played this season by both teams, as well as the last 3 games played by both teams.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Sagarin has Auburn -3 in its Composite ratings, Auburn -5 in the Recent Ratings, which weighs more heavily recent games.

Auburn leads the all-time series 2-0, both "neutral" court games, the first a 70-66 Auburn win in '69 at Vanderbilt in Nashville, the most recent a 67-61 Auburn win in Birmingham, AL, which was at most a semi-neutral game, more like an Auburn home away from home.

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Old guy said:

I posted the initial portion of this in the Auburn thread, then decided to get averages and post it here.

I do not know if this has any significance or not, but it appears that Auburn plays more players 10+ min per game than SLU does.

Out of 11 games played since the start of their season, Auburn has used 9 players 10+ minutes in 7 games, and 8 players 10+ minutes in 4 games. The average number of minutes per player used 10+ minutes is 19.97 min.

Out of 11 games played since the start of the season, SLU has used 12 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 11 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 10 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 8 players 10+ minutes in 6 games, and 7 players 10+ minutes in two games (the last two games played against Belmont, and BC). The average number of minutes per player used 10+ minutes is 22.74 min.

Overall, SLU plays less players 10+ min/game for a longer amount of time per player/game (22.74 min), than Auburn does. Overall, Auburn plays more players 10+ min/game for a shorter amount of time per player/game (19.97 min).

Over the last 3 games Auburn has played an average of 9 players 10+ min/game (13.48 min average/game), and SLU has played an average of 7.33 players 10+ min/game (26.51 min average/game). In my opinion using more 10+ min players per game for a lower amount of time each (when compared to SLU), may provide increased flexibility to Auburn, and result in increased match up problems for SLU. This is based upon an analysis of all the games played this season by both teams, as well as the last 3 games played by both teams.

I am not sure MPG is a good indicator of depth. Most of the Aub games have been blowouts ...so you use your bench more in those games. In the only close regulation game against USF ...Aub wins by 6 ...they had 7 players over 20min...nobody else over 10min.   Even in Aub double OT loss to UConn they still only had 7 players over 20 min.  They had 1 guy with 13 min and the only reason for that was because  Smith (their star) fouled out.

[Coach314]

Sounds like it should be a great game.  Haven't had a chance to watch Auburn yet.

[billiken_roy]

coach havent seen you for awhile.   good to have you back on the board.

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I am not sure MPG is a good indicator of depth. Most of the Aub games have been blowouts ...so you use your bench more in those games. In the only close regulation game against USF ...Aub wins by 6 ...they had 7 players over 20min...nobody else over 10min.   Even in Aub double OT loss to UConn they still only had 7 players over 20 min.  They had 1 guy with 13 min and the only reason for that was because  Smith (their star) fouled out.

I cant believe auburn and Uconn went to OT, and it remained a 6 point win.

 

Auburn was DOMINATED by every stat other than TO, where Uconn had 10 more TO's.

[Old guy]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I am not sure MPG is a good indicator of depth. Most of the Aub games have been blowouts ...so you use your bench more in those games. In the only close regulation game against USF ...Aub wins by 6 ...they had 7 players over 20min...nobody else over 10min.   Even in Aub double OT loss to UConn they still only had 7 players over 20 min.  They had 1 guy with 13 min and the only reason for that was because  Smith (their star) fouled out.

I agree, I do not know if MPG has any significance as an indicator, but I thought it was interesting and wanted to have your input into it. Thank you very much.

[Brighton]

Memphis is not in Auburn’s league. They could very well return to the Final Four.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if the game is close.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, wgstl said:

I cant believe auburn and Uconn went to OT, and it remained a 6 point win.

 

Auburn was DOMINATED by every stat other than TO, where Uconn had 10 more TO's.

And therein lies the reason that Auburn lost the game...10 extra TOs by UConn, yet only 2 extra points for Aub.

Hopefully we won't make the same TO mistake that UConn made.   20+ TOs is almost always a loss.  As I mentioned in the original post...11 TOs by the Bills  or at least match AUB TOs.

[Coach314]

6 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

coach havent seen you for awhile.   good to have you back on the board.

Appreciate that.  Been pretty busy between family and work lately.  But I will definitely be watching.  Hope all is well with everyone.

[Littlebill]

15 hours ago, Brighton said:

Memphis is not in Auburn’s league. They could very well return to the Final Four.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if the game is close.

Memphis has a better win than Auburn does

[wgstl]

16 hours ago, Brighton said:

Memphis is not in Auburn’s league. They could very well return to the Final Four.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if the game is close.

Memphis just beat a team who is as equal if not better than Auburn by the same amount it beat us.  The question is which Memphis team is going to show up on any given night.  The one that showed up for SLU and Bama is just as good as auburn. 

[Littlebill]

8 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Memphis just beat a team who is as equal if not better than Auburn by the same amount it beat us.  The question is which Memphis team is going to show up on any given night.  The one that showed up for SLU and Bama is just as good as auburn. 

Prime memphis is 10+ points better than Auburn. You just have only gotten it a couple times this year

[The Wiz]

17 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Memphis just beat a team who is as equal if not better than Auburn by the same amount it beat us.  The question is which Memphis team is going to show up on any given night.  The one that showed up for SLU and Bama is just as good as auburn. 

If Mem played Aub at the Fetz....Aub by 5 over Mem

[wgstl]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

If Mem played Aub at the Fetz....Aub by 5 over Mem

I can see that, like I said its hard to know which Memphis team shows up.

[RUBillsFan]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

I can see that, like I said its hard to know which Memphis team shows up.

T-Rank has something called game score to measure how well the team plays in a game and graphs it for each team as the season goes along.  Check out the roller coaster on the Memphis page: https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Memphis&year=2022

11/9 vs Tenn Tech (H) - 92

11/13 vs NC Central (H) - 97

11/16 vs SLU (H) - 96

11/19 vs WKU (H) - 80

11/24 vs Va Tech (N) - 95

11/26 vs Iowa St (N) - 30

12/1 vs Georgia (A) - 53

12/4 vs Ole Miss (A) - 57

12/10 vs Murray St (H) - 72

12/14 vs Alabama (H) - 98

[cgeldmacher]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

If Mem played Aub at the Fetz....Aub by 5 over Mem

That's the Memphis team based on aggregate numbers and forecasting.  The good Memphis team wins by 10.  The bad Memphis team loses by 20.

[Old guy]

OK for the game tomorrow TR gives a Vegas line of 6 pts in favor of Auburn with 3 stars of confidence.

[ARon]

Interesting to see that Auburn's only other true road game so far was a (only) 6 pt win against South Florida (KenPom #240).

[The Wiz]

Injury update....Williams who is Auburn's 1st or 2nd player off the bench is dealing with a toe injury....He is expected to play but not be at 100%.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Injury update....Williams who is Auburn's 1st or 2nd player off the bench is dealing with a toe injury....He is expected to play but not be at 100%.

90%?

[almaman]

Earl, Rammer great during delay.

[The Wiz]

Well, based on the title of this thread , I can't say I was surprised either by the outcome or the spread....BUT...it was still soooo disappointing.  Why?... because we had this game within our grasp and let it slip away....13pt lead with 8min 14 sec to go.  Got to win these type of games.

Like always let's look back at the highlights of the original post (in bold)...

This game may be decided on 1 play....a TO ...a reb... a layup,  made or missed.. or even a FT or two...Sadly this statement was true. Many will think that 1 play was the FT missed at the end of the game...Please read the next paragraph.

First we need to shoot well...48/39/76...mimimum...50/40/80 would be nice... Close ??? Well it depends on how you look at it...How about 50/40/ 65  That is almost a bingo...with 1 small problem...that was the slash for the 2nd half only...Unfortunately, we had to play 2 halves and the 1st half was.... 35/ 0 /75...Yes, the zero is not a typo ...in a normal Bills game we would have had 3 more 3s in the 1st half and 3 more FTM in the 2nd half.......we would have finished with a slash of 47/41/79 . We were missing 12 pts...should have won by 8...BUT...we didn't need 12 more points...if we had sunk 1 more 3 in the 1st half  and finished  with a 3P% of 14% instead of zero... we win.  

No mistakes...TOs 11...worst case match them in TOs... We had 17 TOs.... they had 11 TOs so the match wasn't going to work . Results...Aub...15pts on TOs...Bills 11pts...4 pt difference...Hmmm...4 pts...where have I seen this before?  

 Rebs ...match them...And did we ...46-27 for The Bills...This what allowed us to stay in the game...allowed to come back in the 2nd half...allowed us to almost win....2nd chance pts Aub 12...Bills 11

Smith, Johnson and Green...hold them to 32 pts ...39pts...7 too many...we did a good job on Jabari and Johnson ...we let Green slip away.

Smith and Kessler ...hold them to 11 rebs. ...13...close enough in light of the fact that we crushed them overall on the boards.

Don't shoot into the trees...2 blks or less....We did shoot into the trees...6 blks...probably a few less blks would have made a diff.

And  last but not least, we need to play  a full 40 min of basketball....You could look at this a few ways....Here is how I would look at it...We played 39 min 57.4 sec of good basketball....had we made 2 FTs at the end, we could have still won this game. To expound on this further ...We played the 13th best team ITN even,  except for the final 2.6 sec of the game. There is nobody left on our schedule that is anywhere near Aub in terms of difficulty....and yet  we just played Aub even.    Nobody can beat us the rest of the way....Only we can beat us.