The Bills over Bel by 5

[The Wiz]

Tough loss to UAB...If you need to know the why , then check my post game post on the spread thread. The good news is the loss has caused only minor damage as we remain at A-..

 

This is the 3rd game in a row where one of the key differences in the game is that our offense is better than the opponents even though the opponents numbers look good. I pointed out in the last 2 games, we gave up our edge by losing the rebound advantage...the results ...one close win in OT and one close loss  on games we could have won by 7-9 pts.  I will repeat that we are a very good team offensively but we can lose that edge if we lose the rebound war...We can't give lesser offensive teams extra chances to make shots.  Of course, rebounds aren't the only reason we can lose a game or make it closer than it needs to be, but I think it is a major factor in the last 2 games and this one coming up. If you look at the report card below the offense is still doing well. The big change from last time is a serious drop in rebounds ...We had been at A and now have dropped to B & B+...While our offense was little affected, we had a drop in all the defensive categories...I attribute that in part to the weakening rebound numbers.

Well now is a good time to get healthy in rebounding because Belmont is not a good rebounding team.  If we lose this battle of the boards then it will be a bad indicator for future games.  I am confident though it can be fixed because we have shown we can rebound in past games.

 

Time to look at the report card. You will notice we no longer have straight A's...yes,   because of rebounding...are you getting  tired of hearing about this...I do it because rebounding  is important.

 

 

..........................SLU...........................Bel..........................SLU..........................Bel

.......................................OFF..............................................................DEF.............

PPG..............A+.. 7th ITN...................B+............................C................................D+

FG%...............A-..................................B+............................C................................D+

3Pt%.............A....................................B-.............................C.................................C-

FT%...............A-........ .........................B+.............................................

Reb...............B....................................D...............................B+..............................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off....3P%.......Def....none

Down....Off...Reb......Def....PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb

Team FTs... Top 100 Teams ITN

FTM....The Bills...1st

FTA....The Bills....1st

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...1st

FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........1st

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins...5th...up

Stls......Collins....46th....down

FG%.....Linssen...91st...new

3P%...Hargrove....68th...new

Bel

Stls...Murphy...1st

Assts...Murphy...42nd

PPG...Muszynski...95th

Blks....Muszynski...64th

Murphy is not their top scorer but he is their most important player.  He is similar to Yuri in that he leads in assists and steals. This game is going to be different than UAB where we faced a bunch of stealers and a barrage of TOs.  Belmont doesn't standout in opp TOs or steals...just Murphy...Who ever Murphy guards will need glue on his hands and be able to make razor sharp passes. Muszynski is their other key player ..a 6 11 center who can score and block.  He can do damage if not contained ...he can also grab rebounds if we leave him alone but he  is not a rebound machine.

WWN2D2W...

With all this talk about rebounds and steals...let us not forget to play basketball ...here is the target slash....48/ 39/ 77.....Keep TOs to 11 ...we did that against one of the top opp TO teams ITN...UAB...We can do it again.   Of course the elephant in the room is Rebs...win that battle by 4.  Of course, their top scorer is Muszynski....but when he is busy, they will pass the ball to Sheppard and Richard.  Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts....did I mention rebounding?

Bottom line...Don't let Murphy take the ball away from you and get some boards. If we do what we are supposed to do against the Bruins, we won't have to bear another loss.

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

Sagarin concurs:  SLU by 5, .7 pro-SLU Sagarin ratings difference, plus the 4.0 SLU home point advantage = 4.7, rounded off to 5.

Ratings:  Pomeroy SLU 89, Belmont 58;  ESPN BPI SLU 51, Belmont 49;  Sagarin SLU 51, Belmont 59;  NET SLU 67, Belmont 43;  RPI SLU 109 (ouch, I'm glad the NET has supposedly replaced the RPI with the NCAA Committee);  Massey SLU 66, Belmont 54.

Composite Average of the 6 ratings:  SLU 72.2, Belmont 47.5.

I will review The Wiz's adroit scouting report and my own.  But this looks like another close game.  SLU must protect the home court.  Play a bit better than vs. UAB, none or less of the dreaded Billiken lull (that 8-0 UAB de facto 4th Quarter run) and SLU should win.

[Bay Area Billiken]

The Wiz cites rebounding, and I concur.  

While we are not used as Billiken fans to all this scoring, we are also not used to losing rebounding battles.  I fully support the heightened Offense, the scoring.  Now what do we do to get back to Billiken Basketball on rebounds? 

SLU was challenged athletically by UAB.  I made several in-game mental notes, as others have mentioned, that SLU was not getting the benefit of the rebound bounces, the angles, etc.  Those line drive UAB free throw misses were going right above and/or past SLU's inside rebounders.

One solution is more minutes for Okoro and less for Linssen.  But that adversely affects the Offense.  Playing Okoro and Linssen together?  I don't think so, don't think that will work in this largely 4 out, 1 in Offense.  Plus, there is the foul situation.  If Coach Ford is tempted to play the two together, which I don't think he will do, then he has to be willing to play Lassina Traore too.  Okoro and Linssen have 10 fouls to give between them and have been getting close to that number in some games (UAB excepting), as is.

An obvious solution is more minutes, and yes, less yanks, for Nesbitt and Hargrove.  Let's deep six the make one mistake and get yanked, even deep six make two mistakes and get yanked.  We need those guys, both of them.

[Billikenbooster]

Time to resurrect “the chain” reward for the guy with the most rebounds.

[Cowboy II]

45 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

The Wiz cites rebounding, and I concur.  

While we are not used as Billiken fans to all this scoring, we are also not used to losing rebounding battles.  I fully support the heightened Offense, the scoring.  Now what do we do to get back to Billiken Basketball on rebounds? 

SLU was challenged athletically by UAB.  I made several in-game mental notes, as others have mentioned, that SLU was not getting the benefit of the rebound bounces, the angles, etc.  Those line drive UAB free throw misses were going right above and/or past SLU's inside rebounders.

One solution is more minutes for Okoro and less for Linssen.  But that adversely affects the Offense.  Playing Okoro and Linssen together?  I don't think so, don't think that will work in this largely 4 out, 1 in Offense.  Plus, there is the foul situation.  If Coach Ford is tempted to play the two together, which I don't think he will do, then he has to be willing to play Lassina Traore too.  Okoro and Linssen have 10 fouls to give between them and have been getting close to that number in some games (UAB excepting), as is.

An obvious solution is more minutes, and yes, less yanks, for Nesbitt and Hargrove.  Let's deep six the make one mistake and get yanked, even deep six make two mistakes and get yanked.  We need those guys, both of them.

-I wondered on Saturday during the game while their offensive rebounds were mounting about giving this a try as to that point the other stuff wasn't working so much

-here are some rebounding stats

player	min	reb	reb/40 min
gibjim	258	18	2.8
marten	158	39	9.9
jnezz	205	44	8.6
yuri	256	20	3.1
tj	220	51	9.3
okoro	182	66	14.5
fred	183	41	9.0
jones	170	12	2.8
traore **	27	14	20.7
**there are two entries for this player on slubillikens.com
2020-21
jgood	699	212	12.1
has	473	140	11.8
jperk	642	81	5.0

 

[juniorbill76]

Good info, Cowboy. Of course, most of Traore's minutes were against inferior competition. Did you do an off/def rebounds breakdown?

[Cowboy II]

16 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said:

Good info, Cowboy. Of course, most of Traore's minutes were against inferior competition. Did you do an off/def rebounds breakdown?

-did not

[HoosierPal]

https://slubillikens.com/documents/2021/12/6//BillikensGameNotes10_Belmont.pdf?id=5066

Game Notes

[Matty Light]

2 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-I wondered on Saturday during the game while their offensive rebounds were mounting about giving this a try as to that point the other stuff wasn't working so much

-here are some rebounding stats

player	min	reb	reb/40 min
gibjim	258	18	2.8
marten	158	39	9.9
jnezz	205	44	8.6
yuri	256	20	3.1
tj	220	51	9.3
okoro	182	66	14.5
fred	183	41	9.0
jones	170	12	2.8
traore **	27	14	20.7
**there are two entries for this player on slubillikens.com
2020-21
jgood	699	212	12.1
has	473	140	11.8
jperk	642	81	5.0

 

Nesbitt has not yet found his role for this season's team. Perhaps he could be a key player crashing the boards. It is probably not the role he had in mind but it is a role this team lacks.

[The Wiz]

I see all the nonsense going on with the Net Tracker...More craziness from the NCAA. Who hear believes that Davidson is the best team in the A-10?.... the team that will finish on top of the A-10....Does anyone other than the NCAA believe that?   No ..The NCAA doesn't believe that...they say " the numbers aren't meaningful at this point because it is still early".  Then why put them out..

I am writing this post in this thread because starting today and for the rest of the season,  I will post the probability of the Bills making it to the Dance in every spread thread as long as the Bills have at least a 40% chance to make it to the Dance.   You will not have to take a class in Quantum Physics or Advanced Calculus to figure it out.

Chance 2 Dance

The Bills....61%

St. B..........57%

Day............46%

VCU............45%

Rich............42 %

Dav.............41%

So right now I would say we are a 2 bid league.

I listed the other A-10 teams that are above 40%.  

I was just going to list The Bills but if you want to see the other teams in future threads,  let me know.

 

[White Pelican]

I'm sure it makes more work for you, but I would like to see the other teams on your probability list. Thanks once again for all the work you do on the stats and probabilities!

[Taj79]

Here's an idea ..... when the double team hedge comes at Coillins, the key will be to bypass the double.   That usually means the spot at the top of the key/foul line is open.  This zone was known as the Javonte Perkins zone.  Get the ball to Perk and let him go.  Perk is gone.  Someone needs to fil that zone.  Not just anyone.  It can't be Linssen.  It can't be Okoro.  Frankly, I also don't think it is Jimerson, he gets knocks off the ball too easily and is not a ballhandler. My vote is Nesbitt.  Nesbitt has the handles and the gumption to take it and go to the hoop.  At this point, it's a three on two fast break.  Or a midrange jumper from 15 feet in.  The secondary choice would be Hargrove, but he hasn't shown any real ballhandling ability to attack.  The third choice is Thatch, but he would need to be more decisive and his ball handling skills are suspect as well.

[Bay Area Billiken]

50 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I see all the nonsense going on with the Net Tracker...More craziness from the NCAA. Who hear believes that Davidson is the best team in the A-10?.... the team that will finish on top of the A-10....Does anyone other than the NCAA believe that?   No ..The NCAA doesn't believe that...they say " the numbers aren't meaningful at this point because it is still early".  Then why put them out..

I am writing this post in this thread because starting today and for the rest of the season,  I will post the probability of the Bills making it to the Dance in every spread thread as long as the Bills have at least a 40% chance to make it to the Dance.   You will not have to take a class in Quantum Physics or Advanced Calculus to figure it out.

Chance 2 Dance

The Bills....61%

St. B..........57%

Day............46%

VCU............45%

Rich............42 %

Dav.............41%

So right now I would say we are a 2 bid league.

I listed the other A-10 teams that are above 40%.  

I was just going to list The Bills but if you want to see the other teams in future threads,  let me know.

 

I think this is very good, Wiz.  I'd like to see the over 40% listed if you have the time.

The NET results/release scared me today, in a basketball sense.

[Bay Area Billiken]

6 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Here's an idea ..... when the double team hedge comes at Coillins, the key will be to bypass the double.   That usually means the spot at the top of the key/foul line is open.  This zone was known as the Javonte Perkins zone.  Get the ball to Perk and let him go.  Perk is gone.  Someone needs to fil that zone.  Not just anyone.  It can't be Linssen.  It can't be Okoro.  Frankly, I also don't think it is Jimerson, he gets knocks off the ball too easily and is not a ballhandler. My vote is Nesbitt.  Nesbitt has the handles and the gumption to take it and go to the hoop.  At this point, it's a three on two fast break.  Or a midrange jumper from 15 feet in.  The secondary choice would be Hargrove, but he hasn't shown any real ballhandling ability to attack.  The third choice is Thatch, but he would need to be more decisive and his ball handling skills are suspect as well.

Agree, Taj- Nesbitt.  He's the one with the natural ability to fill that key role. 

 

[Old guy]

As far as Team Rankings go, we are favored to win this game by 2.5 points (Vegas line) with one star of confidence. One star of confidence means no confidence. We are the better team and should win, but we were in the same situation against UAB and lost. We can and should win this one.

[brianstl]

18 hours ago, juniorbill76 said:

Good info, Cowboy. Of course, most of Traore's minutes were against inferior competition. Did you do an off/def rebounds breakdown?

Here is a rundown of rebound percentage of total, offensive and defensive.  I also included the per 100 possessions numbers.

[Bills By 40]

17 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Here's an idea ..... when the double team hedge comes at Coillins, the key will be to bypass the double.   That usually means the spot at the top of the key/foul line is open.  This zone was known as the Javonte Perkins zone.  Get the ball to Perk and let him go.  Perk is gone.  Someone needs to fil that zone.  Not just anyone.  It can't be Linssen.  It can't be Okoro.  Frankly, I also don't think it is Jimerson, he gets knocks off the ball too easily and is not a ballhandler. My vote is Nesbitt.  Nesbitt has the handles and the gumption to take it and go to the hoop.  At this point, it's a three on two fast break.  Or a midrange jumper from 15 feet in.  The secondary choice would be Hargrove, but he hasn't shown any real ballhandling ability to attack.  The third choice is Thatch, but he would need to be more decisive and his ball handling skills are suspect as well.

I'm with you on this one. Nesbitt has shown he's got that midrange game to knock down those jumpers, the ball handling to get to the rim if the mid range isn't there, and the passing to hit the wide open GJ when Nesbitt draws his man after Yuri passes out of the double. Nesbitt as our secondary ball handler and offense initiator makes too much sense. I love Jones but he's not a go-to type of player, rather a complement. I'd love to see him continue to go nuclear from deep. 

[bauman]

On 12/6/2021 at 1:12 PM, Bay Area Billiken said:

The Wiz cites rebounding, and I concur.  

While we are not used as Billiken fans to all this scoring, we are also not used to losing rebounding battles.  I fully support the heightened Offense, the scoring.  Now what do we do to get back to Billiken Basketball on rebounds? 

SLU was challenged athletically by UAB.  I made several in-game mental notes, as others have mentioned, that SLU was not getting the benefit of the rebound bounces, the angles, etc.  Those line drive UAB free throw misses were going right above and/or past SLU's inside rebounders.

One solution is more minutes for Okoro and less for Linssen.  But that adversely affects the Offense.  Playing Okoro and Linssen together?  I don't think so, don't think that will work in this largely 4 out, 1 in Offense.  Plus, there is the foul situation.  If Coach Ford is tempted to play the two together, which I don't think he will do, then he has to be willing to play Lassina Traore too.  Okoro and Linssen have 10 fouls to give between them and have been getting close to that number in some games (UAB excepting), as is.

An obvious solution is more minutes, and yes, less yanks, for Nesbitt and Hargrove.  Let's deep six the make one mistake and get yanked, even deep six make two mistakes and get yanked.  We need those guys, both of them.

I agree with you on the getting yanked point.  That takes me back to Rich Grawer.  Make a mistake and you are out of there. Players can't play their best games if they are constantly looking over their shoulders to se if the coach has a player up to replace them

[The Wiz]

Another tough loss because this was a very winnable game.

Let's start with the projected slash which is the average of all Bills games leading up to tonight.....48/39/77...to make that slash we would have needed  3 more 2s...2 more 3s and 3 more FTs.  That is a total of 15 pts we left on the table.  What this means is ...had we had an average night we win by 10...had we had an off night we win by 5 .  But instead we have a bad night and lose by 5.    3 more FTs and a couple of layups and we win the game  We missed 13 layups....that's a lot of misses...  ( 8-21)

Are we a bad team?...No....Is the season over?....No...Do we have no chance to win the A-10?....No....Is the Dance bid gone? ...again NO.

We had a bad night shooting...that cost us the game...it happens to all teams.  We shot 60% from the FT line tonight ...about the same as the last few years when we were the worst FT shooting team ITN.  Are posters here going to say we have reverted back and that we are now a bad shooting FT team?... That there has been no FT progress this year based on this one game?  No one on this board believes that.   And our regular shooting is still good too.  The good news is the rebounding was good and even with terrible shooting we came within seconds of a win because of that.  We also made some mistakes in the final minutes of this game as well as the last game... TOs , bad shot selection ...essentially closing the game out mistakes.  The good news is , like the rebounds , this too can be fixed.

Bottom line...Things could be worse...You could be the #20 AP poll ranked Florida Gators and lose to Tex Sou. a team that was 0-7 (a grade D team).  In the history of college basketball a Southwestern conf (worst league) team has never beaten a ranked SEC team.  The record until yesterday was 51-0...by the way, they whupped them 69-54 ...so it wasn't even close. The ultimate college basketball humiliation.  I predict that U of F will get a Dance bid at the end of the season.  They will get that bid because they will fix what went wrong.  The Bills can do the same...the potential is there.  It is up to Ford to meld and bring that potential out.  You can't teach potential ...you either have it or you don't.  The Bills have it...shooting ability, athleticism,  balance and depth.  It just has to gel.

Just do it.

[Taj79]

Key line: "It is up to Ford to meld and bring that potential out."  I am of the opinion he is unable to do that.  His history keeps repeating itself.  His "go to" guy can't shoot.  His go to guy had as many turnovers as he did assists.  If we can't defend the home fires, what makes you think we can win anything on the road?  Ford's offense has always relied on hero ball.  Bess.  Isabell.  Goodwin Perkins.  We don't have that right now.  The only guy capable of that is constantly yanked and benched.  While not a lost season, going forward now relies on Ford's "melding."  Call me unoptimistic.