NET Tracker 2021-22

[Bay Area Billiken]

Following the NET, the Power 5 would have 30 NCAA bids, composed of Big XII 6, Big Ten 8, SEC 7, Pac-12 5, and ACC 4.  The Power 5 + 1 adding the Big East, would have 36 NCAA bids, 53% of the NCAA bids.

The Mountain West would have 4, the WCC 3 and the 21st conference ranked OVC 2.  Those 2 OVC bids are an easy source for excision in the room behind the closed doors, as is 10 loss Utah State of the Mountain West.  Everyone else, 23 conferences, would be one bid leagues.  I think there will be some variance there, as the A10 and American Athletic (ACC) will probably ultimately get 2.  See last year's gift bid bestowed on Wichita State.

Last year, all the Quad's, the metrics, the ratings notwithstanding, it sure looked like the NCAA just gave at least 2 bids each to the Group of American, Mountain West, A10, WCC, and MVC.  Call it the Throw Up Your Hands method.  This occurred to SLU's detriment.

The overnight movement was Oregon of the Pac-12 replacing BYU of the WCC in the NCAA field.  An Oregon (Nike) team that close (NET 48) is going to get IN.  

[Old guy]

2 hours ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

Old guy? Is that you?

 

1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

Definitely an Old Guy

Sorry to disappoint but not me

[cgeldmacher]

21 hours ago, wgstl said:

So this is part of what im saying, and I was very vocal about this during the Belmont uab stretch.  Sure what we did without Perkins has been great, but there is no reason to drop both of those. You can pick and choose which of the 2 you would haver preferred to win, but at home, 1 out of 2 should have been the very least.  Going 0-2 at home against bubble teams is not good.  Heck, this is the case if we were ranked in the 100's in kenpom. 

I get what you and others are saying, but there area also games that we have pulled out (i.e. overtime on the road at Boise St. and double overtime on road at GW) that you have to look at.  There are always several games a year that could end up going either way, and we either pull them off or we don't.  That's part of being a team like ours that hasn't quite made it up to the echelon of teams like Gonzaga.  We will always have those game, especially in seasons where we lose our top player to an injury before the season.  If we lament and lament and lament those games each season, it makes for a difficult time being a Billiken fan.  I would rather celebrate that we are 2nd in our conference and in contention for an NCAA bid despite the fact that none of us saw that as a possibility after Perkins went down.

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

62 going on 63.   add to that the aging effects of a heart attack and cancer in the last 10 years, i got to be at least 90.  

 

of course i could still run you off the floor skip.  

Yea, but so could your grandmother. 

[slufanskip]

6 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Following the NET, the Power 5 would have 30 NCAA bids, composed of Big XII 6, Big Ten 8, SEC 7, Pac-12 5, and ACC 4.  The Power 5 + 1 adding the Big East, would have 36 NCAA bids, 53% of the NCAA bids.

The Mountain West would have 4, the WCC 3 and the 21st conference ranked OVC 2.  Those 2 OVC bids are an easy source for excision in the room behind the closed doors, as is 10 loss Utah State of the Mountain West.  Everyone else, 23 conferences, would be one bid leagues.  I think there will be some variance there, as the A10 and American Athletic (ACC) will probably ultimately get 2.  See last year's gift bid bestowed on Wichita State.

Last year, all the Quad's, the metrics, the ratings notwithstanding, it sure looked like the NCAA just gave at least 2 bids each to the Group of American, Mountain West, A10, WCC, and MVC.  Call it the Throw Up Your Hands method.  This occurred to SLU's detriment.

The overnight movement was Oregon of the Pac-12 replacing BYU of the WCC in the NCAA field.  An Oregon (Nike) team that close (NET 48) is going to get IN.  

Big 10, 8 bid which means 1 team playing on the weekend

[Bay Area Billiken]

From watching the games, I think this SLU team (NET 49) is better than 21 St. Mary's (without question), 34 Boise State, 38 USF(CA), 43 Washington State, 50 BYU, and 54 Davidson.  That's just a sample of teams I've seen play.

The great equalizer vs. Davidson is the upcoming game is on Davidson's home court.

How St. Mary's has a NET of 21 is a mystery.  SMC still has 2 games left with #1 Gonzaga, Away and Home.  With all due respect to the Gaels, the closest team to my desk, there's no way St. Mary's is the 21st best team in the country.  I really don't think the Gaels are the 2nd or even 3rd best team in the WCC.

[Bay Area Billiken]

19 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Big 10, 8 bid which means 1 team playing on the weekend

Yes, does the nation at large really need to see 57% of the entire Big Ten playing in the NCAA Tournament?  

Also, 60% of the Big 12 would be in the NCAA.  

[wgstl]

T-Rank has us up to #39

[HoosierPal]

12 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Yes, does the nation at large really need to see 57% of the entire Big Ten playing in the NCAA Tournament?  

Also, 60% of the Big 12 would be in the NCAA.  

If you let the ‘nation at large’ vote, universities with the largest number of alumni + students would always win. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

15 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

If you let the ‘nation at large’ vote, universities with the largest number of alumni + students would always win. 

Doubtful.

The nation at large wants to see the upsets, the David vs. Goliath matchups, not one also ran defeated conference non-contender Power 5 playing another, neither of whom belong in the NCAA Tournament.

There's a place for also rans like 37 Indiana, 39 Iowa State, 40 10-Loss Oklahoma, 43 Washington State, 44 10-Loss Virginia Tech, 47 Florida, 48 Oregon (Nike) - It's called the NIT.

Does 41 North Carolina really deserve the Blue Blood Exemption?  That team is lousy, got routed on its home court by 20 by a less than usual status Duke.  The ACC is way down this season. People rip the Pac-12.  The ACC is worse.

Most of that above list of also rans are going to be IN.  A number of them are already IN.  That does not mean they deserve it because they don't.

[HoosierPal]

6 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Doubtful.

The nation at large wants to see the upsets, the David vs. Goliath matchups, not one also ran defeated conference non-contender Power 5 playing another, neither of whom belong in the NCAA Tournament.

No, the alumni plus students of non-P6 want to see David v Goliath upsets. The alumni plus students of the Ohio State’s of the country  want to see their team in a safer game. 
 

NC versus Iowa State gets more viewers than Belmont v Iowa State. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

42 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

No, the alumni plus students of non-P6 want to see David v Goliath upsets. The alumni plus students of the Ohio State’s of the country  want to see their team in a safer game. 

That's a safer game, as opposed to one they could lose with 50:50 probability, best odds.

An also ran like Indiana does not deserve a "safe" Round 1 NCAA game.  Indiana is 7-6 in the Big Ten, will strain to even finish .500 in the Big Ten.  A Power 5 that can't even finish above .500 in its own conference should not be the recipient of an NCAA Tournament gift bid.

The NCAA cow tows to the Power 5, is merely following the Golden Rule, as in:  He who holds the gold makes the rule.  It's only getting worse.  

[Bay Area Billiken]

12 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

No, the alumni plus students of non-P6 want to see David v Goliath upsets. The alumni plus students of the Ohio State’s of the country  want to see their team in a safer game. 
 

NC versus Iowa State gets more viewers than Belmont v Iowa State. 

Belmont is probably OUT anyway absent winning the OVC Tournament.  The #21 OVC is a one bid league.  45 Belmont is a prime candidate for excision.

[HoosierPal]

25 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Belmont is probably OUT anyway absent winning the OVC Tournament.  The #21 OVC is a one bid league.  45 Belmont is a prime candidate for excision.

That’s not my point but that is okay. It wasn't about this Belmont, but a Belmont type mid team.   Substitute any smaller school in the blank.  

We can have different opinions.  I don't have any information, but my feeling is that SLU's TV numbers aren't stellar.  

[Bay Area Billiken]

The home court loss to the dreaded Bonnies sent SLU’s NET in the expected swan dive from 49 to 61. 

Pomeroy dropped to 54, Sagarin to 49, ESPN BPI to 42. 

[TheOne]

With the Bonnie’s in the ~85 NET ranking range, there is hope they can string together some non-Billiken wins and crack the top 75 before the end of conference play.  If this happens, our loss to them is bumped from a Q3 loss up to Q2, and the upcoming Billiken win @Bonaventure on Monday is a Q1 win… at least as I understand things.

[JGR6396]

2 hours ago, TheOne said:

With the Bonnie’s in the ~85 NET ranking range, there is hope they can string together some non-Billiken wins and crack the top 75 before the end of conference play.  If this happens, our loss to them is bumped from a Q3 loss up to Q2, and the upcoming Billiken win @Bonaventure on Monday is a Q1 win… at least as I understand things.

I was thinking about this today. Let's say we win at their place (tall task I know), and they end up playing well down the stretch and end as ~70 NET. 1Q win and a 2Q loss. Probably better or comparable to a 2Q win and a 3Q win. We need 1Q wins more than we need to avoid 2Q losses. Of course, if we could go back we'd love to win last nights game, but all hope is not lost. 

[almaman]

Last night finished our chances of dancing without winning conference tournament. More disheartening is the realization that we have no real chance to do that without some bolts of luck & magic.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

If theoretically the Bonnie’s and Iona finish top 75 and everyone else stays the same, we currently have 2 Q1 opportunities and 3 Q2 opportunities in the regular season. 
 

Split at Bona/Dav, and win at Rich/UR, v VCU, and the two Q4 games. 

That would put us at 22-8 (14-4) with 2-4 in Q1, and 6-3 in Q2, with only 1 Q3 loss. 
 

As long as we play Bona/Rich/GM in the first round, pretty much every game is a Q2 game in the tourney. Go 2-1 there and we finish with 10 Q1/2 wins and only 1 Q3 loss. 
 

Is that likely? No. But it’s possible, so I wouldn’t say we are dead yet. Still have a ton of opportunities to boost our resume. Our schedule is very back heavy

[billikenblue]

That was our 4th home loss to quality teams. Win 2 of the 4 and we would have had a solid chance but unfortunately losing all 4 ends the at large hope..only way in is to win the conference tournament 

[Bay Area Billiken]

3 hours ago, billikenblue said:

That was our 4th home loss to quality teams. Win 2 of the 4 and we would have had a solid chance but unfortunately losing all 4 ends the at large hope..only way in is to win the conference tournament 

That's too many home losses.  The home court must be protected.

[Bay Area Billiken]

The updated NET is out.  In the A10:

Dayton 59, SLU 60, Davidson 61, VCU 68, Richmond 86, St. Bona 90, Mason 108, URI 120, St. Joe's 161, UMass 172, Fordham 185, GW 242, LaSalle 244, Duquesne 255.

Not only is Juan Bid lurking in Newport News, he is past knocking on the door, has entered the vestibule, that is unless last year's NCAA ad hoc throw up of its hands and give 2 bids each to the Group of 5 (AAC, MW, WCC, A10, MVC) is the new normal.  But I doubt it.  The MW and WCC are both looking at more than 2 bids in '22.

[Lando Griffin]

As it relates to SLU and as many realize and mentioned you can probably put this NET discussion to bed for them.

They gotta win the conf tourney…

[SLU_Nick]

28 minutes ago, Lando Griffin said:

As it relates to SLU and as many realize and mentioned you can probably put this NET discussion to bed for them.

They gotta win the conf tourney…

Agreed.  Mods -  Please close this thread.

[billiken_roy]

to my surprise and amazement we only dropped one spot in the net to 61.   Dayton switched spots with us.  i guess we run the table leading up to DC, who knows.   with the tough remaining schedule, we might have a chance yet.  surely cant lose anymore.  but i have no computer understanding.