Major Majerus Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Watching the 1st game / SFA is scary good on many levels - so far they do it all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Hopefully Buffalo bounces back. Better game from a kenpom/NET perspective most likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmart23 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, slufan13 said: Hopefully Buffalo bounces back. Better game from a kenpom/NET perspective most likely They cut it to 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Looks like our game could be very delayed. SFA vs Buffalo one of the slowest games I've seen in a while Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 And close enough at 2:05 that we may see overtime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 SFA up 79-78 with .7 to go. Pretty much over. SFA pulls the upset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Buffalo has been in decline ever since Nate Oats left for Alabama and SFA has won 84% of their games over the last two seasons. How is this an upset? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said: Buffalo has been in decline ever since Nate Oats left for Alabama and SFA has won 84% of their games over the last two seasons. How is this an upset? In terms of computer rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 9 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said: In terms of computer rankings. Let me disagree with you, I do not think this is a matter or raw probabilities, I think it is a matter of sentiment and expectations. I agree this was not an upset, though. The problem for Buffalo in getting defeated by SFA was loss of confidence in Buffalo by Vegas. Look at TR which works on the Vegas sentiment. Before the game Buffalo was 74 overall, the expectations for the game were not great, they were supposed to win against SFA but only by 5 pts (Vegas line) and only with a 2 stars of confidence level. That means that SFA was considered a probable threat to Buffalo. Prior to the game SFA was ranked 202 by TR. The game was won by SFA by a single point, which is all you need to win. This was not an upset, the level of confidence prior to the game and the low Vegas line implies that a win by SFA was not totally unexpected. However the win by SFA meant that a re-evaluation of Buffalo and SFA by Vegas was required. As a result Buffalo went down in the rankings from 74 to 84, a loss of 10 reflecting a loss of confidence in the team. SFA went up from 202 to 178, a gain of 26 pts acknolwledging that Vegas was wrong in its expectations about SFA. As you can see, Buffalo is expected to do less than they were before, and SFA is expected to do a lot more than they were before. What is Vegas expectation based upon? It is based upon what the betting public thinks of the teams involved in a game. It goes up and down like a yo yo with gains and losses, but primarily reflects how the betting public feels about every team. This is not something that is easily translated into a numerical expression, and TR does a great job in this regard. If you think about it, this concept of using Vegas sentiment as a probabilistic predictor for future action in the sports arena is not very different from using sentiment indicators to trade in the market. This interplay is quite interesting, at least to me it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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