The Wiz's Preseason Forecast

[The Wiz]

And so we begin again.   For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the UAB game on Dec 7).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A new tweak I have added this year is with the grade of B+ (the transition grade)  An A-  team is pretty much a lock for an NCAA bid (90%).  At B you have missed the boat. The change I am making this year is when The Bills are at B+  I will also put a % with the grade....probability of making the Dance.

The number of games figured are 30  ....No A-10 tourney or exhibition games.  

Let's take a look at the A-10 report card....

1...St. B.....A

2...SLU.....B+

3...Day......B+

4...Rich.....B+

5...VCU.....B+

6...Dav......B

7...RI..........B

8...GM,,,,,,,B-

9...Mass....B-

10...Duq.....C+

11...St. J.....C+

12...LaS......C

13...GW.......D+

14...Ford.....D-

 

These grades can vary 2 steps till the out of conference games are over...then the grades narrow to one step....So a grade of B+ at the beginning of the season has a variance of B- to A.  That same grade at the beginning of conference play is variable from B to A-.  The Bills B+ translates anywhere from 9th seed NCAA bid (best case scenario) to no bid (worst case scenario).

For the conference, we have 1 locked bid plus 2 or 3 more bids.

Finally, there is the Perkins factor. These prognostications are figured with a Perkins free team.  There is no getting around it , the loss of Perkins was significant.    Is the season over? ...Do we have little or no chance to make the Dance?  This is the conclusion that a lot of forecasters have reached. After running the numbers, I am happy to report my numbers are much more optimistic than   a lot of the "experts".  To paraphrase Mark Twain ...Reports of the demise of the Billikens have been greatly exaggerated.  While we are no longer a lock for a Dance bid , we still have a very good chance to Dance.

Here is how the seasons project on a won loss basis.....

24-6....most probable and not too shabby

27-3...Best case scenario.

21- 9 ...worst case scenario...barring some unforeseen surprise....like losing more players

Toughest games.....Memphis and St. B away...easiest games...C Ark  and EIU...most important game ...St. B at home

Our chances at this point at B+ are 54% to get an NCAA bid.  If Ford can work his magic and get the team to gel as the season progresses, we may see some extra action in the 2nd half of March.

Go Bills

 

[mechee89]

Basketball season can't even begin until Wiz gives his forecast.

[Reinert310]

41 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

And so we begin again.   For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the UAB game on Dec 7).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A new tweak I have added this year is with the grade of B+ (the transition grade)  An A-  team is pretty much a lock for an NCAA bid (90%).  At B you have missed the boat. The change I am making this year is when The Bills are at B+  I will also put a % with the grade....probability of making the Dance.

The number of games figured are 30  ....No A-10 tourney or exhibition games.  

Let's take a look at the A-10 report card....

1...St. B.....A

2...SLU.....B+

3...Day......B+

4...Rich.....B+

5...VCU.....B+

6...Dav......B

7...RI..........B

8...GM,,,,,,,B-

9...Mass....B-

10...Duq.....C+

11...St. J.....C+

12...LaS......C

13...GW.......D+

14...Ford.....D-

 

These grades can vary 2 steps till the out of conference games are over...then the grades narrow to one step....So a grade of B+ at the beginning of the season has a variance of B- to A.  That same grade at the beginning of conference play is variable from B to A-.  The Bills B+ translates anywhere from 9th seed NCAA bid (best case scenario) to no bid (worst case scenario).

For the conference, we have 1 locked bid plus 2 or 3 more bids.

Finally, there is the Perkins factor. These prognostications are figured with a Perkins free team.  There is no getting around it , the loss of Perkins was significant.    Is the season over? ...Do we have little or no chance to make the Dance?  This is the conclusion that a lot of forecasters have reached. After running the numbers, I am happy to report my numbers are much more optimistic than   a lot of the "experts".  To paraphrase Mark Twain ...Reports of the demise of the Billikens have been greatly exaggerated.  While we are no longer a lock for a Dance bid , we still have a very good chance to Dance.

Here is how the seasons project on a won loss basis.....

24-6....most probable and not too shabby

27-3...Best case scenario.

21- 9 ...worst case scenario...barring some unforeseen surprise....like losing more players

Toughest games.....Memphis and St. B away...easiest games...C Ark  and EIU...most important game ...St. B at home

Our chances at this point at B+ are 54% to get an NCAA bid.  If Ford can work his magic and get the team to gel as the season progresses, we may see some extra action in the 2nd half of March.

Go Bills

 

Hey Wiz, I have a theory about this season that’s not backed up by anything but a gut feeling, but I’d love to get your thoughts. (After the Perkins injury) I kinda feel the same way about this season as I did 2 years ago, the season after Bess and Isabell and Foreman graduated, but we brought in Yuri and Perk and TJ and Jimerson and Jimmy Bell. There are going to be times, especially in the OOC where this team makes bad mistakes and looks totally out of sorts and frustrating. I also think our OOC schedule is noticeably more difficult than 2 years ago. But I almost think that that’s a good thing. The OOC is kind of going to be a trial by fire, and even if the results aren’t always there, hopefully it will bring the team closer and we will be battle-tested when we get to conference play. And that’s when our discipline and team play will start to match our talent and athleticism. We may lose a game or 2 more than we should I’m the OOC, but might win a game or 2 more than we expect in conference play, and end up being one of the most dangerous teams in the league come March 1st, just like we were 2 years ago. 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Reinert310 said:

Hey Wiz, I have a theory about this season that’s not backed up by anything but a gut feeling, but I’d love to get your thoughts. (After the Perkins injury) I kinda feel the same way about this season as I did 2 years ago, the season after Bess and Isabell and Foreman graduated, but we brought in Yuri and Perk and TJ and Jimerson and Jimmy Bell. There are going to be times, especially in the OOC where this team makes bad mistakes and looks totally out of sorts and frustrating. I also think our OOC schedule is noticeably more difficult than 2 years ago. But I almost think that that’s a good thing. The OOC is kind of going to be a trial by fire, and even if the results aren’t always there, hopefully it will bring the team closer and we will be battle-tested when we get to conference play. And that’s when our discipline and team play will start to match our talent and athleticism. We may lose a game or 2 more than we should I’m the OOC, but might win a game or 2 more than we expect in conference play, and end up being one of the most dangerous teams in the league come March 1st, just like we were 2 years ago. 

Let me summarize  your post in one word...gel.  The ability to mold a team into a cohesive well oiled machine that plays as if it 1 unit.  The gelled team forms something bigger than the 5 individuals on the floor...a synergistic effect.  I think this is one of Ford's strengths. The ability to take players who are rough around the edges or don't play well together and have them grow into a basketball team. No matter how we start or who we start with,  by Feb we have a team that the rest of the A-10 is worried about.  We are always much better in Feb than Nov.

So the trick is to get through the next 2-3 months without making a lot of mistakes or huge ones. I trust that Ford will continue to do what he has done in the past....play the cards he is dealt and play them in the best fashion possible.

Btw , there has been a lot of talk about the OOC schedule....Here is a report card of our OOC schedule.....This should give you a better idea of what we are up against.....

C Ark....F

EIU........F

Mem.....A

Mer......C+

ISU.......D+

Buff/SFA....B+/ B-

BSU......B

UAB......B

Bel........B

BC.........B-

Aub.......A-

Drake....B+

Of course grades will change as I add real data to the mix but this is where we stand now.

[Old guy]

Wiz, I agree with your Bayesian analysis as a Bayesian analysis. I agree that the loss of Perkins is a significant loss, that may unleash a different playing style this season, or not. I also agree that we are better than most analysis say we are. There is one factor that was very significant for the Bills last season, a factor over which we have absolutely no control and which can also impact the Bills this year, the virus.

That said, I look forward to this coming season with a very positive feeling towards the Bills, without Perkins.

[slu72]

One thing that’s hard to measure is leadership. We’ve had good leaders in recent years with Bess and Goodwin. These are guys who really play with the refuse to lose attitude. Going to be interesting to see how Yurimania handles the mantle of leadership  And do we have any other players willing to step into a leadership role? 
My best guess at this time is 21-9. Some struggles as we adapt to life without Perk. 

[Cowboy II]

17 hours ago, The Wiz said:

And so we begin again.   For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the UAB game on Dec 7).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A new tweak I have added this year is with the grade of B+ (the transition grade)  An A-  team is pretty much a lock for an NCAA bid (90%).  At B you have missed the boat. The change I am making this year is when The Bills are at B+  I will also put a % with the grade....probability of making the Dance.

The number of games figured are 30  ....No A-10 tourney or exhibition games.  

Let's take a look at the A-10 report card....

1...St. B.....A

2...SLU.....B+

3...Day......B+

4...Rich.....B+

5...VCU.....B+

6...Dav......B

7...RI..........B

8...GM,,,,,,,B-

9...Mass....B-

10...Duq.....C+

11...St. J.....C+

12...LaS......C

13...GW.......D+

14...Ford.....D-

 

These grades can vary 2 steps till the out of conference games are over...then the grades narrow to one step....So a grade of B+ at the beginning of the season has a variance of B- to A.  That same grade at the beginning of conference play is variable from B to A-.  The Bills B+ translates anywhere from 9th seed NCAA bid (best case scenario) to no bid (worst case scenario).

For the conference, we have 1 locked bid plus 2 or 3 more bids.

Finally, there is the Perkins factor. These prognostications are figured with a Perkins free team.  There is no getting around it , the loss of Perkins was significant.    Is the season over? ...Do we have little or no chance to make the Dance?  This is the conclusion that a lot of forecasters have reached. After running the numbers, I am happy to report my numbers are much more optimistic than   a lot of the "experts".  To paraphrase Mark Twain ...Reports of the demise of the Billikens have been greatly exaggerated.  While we are no longer a lock for a Dance bid , we still have a very good chance to Dance.

Here is how the seasons project on a won loss basis.....

24-6....most probable and not too shabby

27-3...Best case scenario.

21- 9 ...worst case scenario...barring some unforeseen surprise....like losing more players

Toughest games.....Memphis and St. B away...easiest games...C Ark  and EIU...most important game ...St. B at home

Our chances at this point at B+ are 54% to get an NCAA bid.  If Ford can work his magic and get the team to gel as the season progresses, we may see some extra action in the 2nd half of March.

Go Bills

 

-9 teams at B- or above, that's a good, top-heavy league, hope this equates to many scalps in the non-con

[Old guy]

The following is the Team Rankings prediction for the Bills 2021-2022 season. As expected, it is markedly worse than Wiz's early prediction. I think we are a lot better than what Team Rankings predict at this time. Their prediction pegs us at 104th overall and 7th in A10, here is the link:

 https://outlook.live.com/mail/0/inbox/id/AQMkADAwATE4MTgxLWE2ZTMtYTM5YS0wMAItMDAKAEYAAANdEStdAXQZSYV3D9%2Bc6etFBwDtbL7bN3dgTqd15xHm95YcAAACAQwAAABdQi8o4jZqQ4FErThnl0glAARncqtAAAAA

I am not a betting person but it seems to me that we are going to be significantly underrated at least at the beginning of the  season, this may provide a good chance for profits for our betting members.

[AnkielBreakers]

On 11/8/2021 at 11:30 AM, slu72 said:

One thing that’s hard to measure is leadership. We’ve had good leaders in recent years with Bess and Goodwin. These are guys who really play with the refuse to lose attitude. Going to be interesting to see how Yurimania handles the mantle of leadership  And do we have any other players willing to step into a leadership role? 
My best guess at this time is 21-9. Some struggles as we adapt to life without Perk. 

Nm

[BilliKat]

I don’t know the level that Perkins will still be involved but my assumption is quite a bit- and though he can’t play,  he still has the heart, determination, and thoughts of a leader… which I think still brings a lot to the table. 

[slufanskip]

On 11/7/2021 at 6:18 PM, The Wiz said:

And so we begin again.   For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop  the Bayesian (after the UAB game on Dec 7).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A new tweak I have added this year is with the grade of B+ (the transition grade)  An A-  team is pretty much a lock for an NCAA bid (90%).  At B you have missed the boat. The change I am making this year is when The Bills are at B+  I will also put a % with the grade....probability of making the Dance.

The number of games figured are 30  ....No A-10 tourney or exhibition games.  

Let's take a look at the A-10 report card....

1...St. B.....A

2...SLU.....B+

3...Day......B+

4...Rich.....B+

5...VCU.....B+

6...Dav......B

7...RI..........B

8...GM,,,,,,,B-

9...Mass....B-

10...Duq.....C+

11...St. J.....C+

12...LaS......C

13...GW.......D+

14...Ford.....D-

 

These grades can vary 2 steps till the out of conference games are over...then the grades narrow to one step....So a grade of B+ at the beginning of the season has a variance of B- to A.  That same grade at the beginning of conference play is variable from B to A-.  The Bills B+ translates anywhere from 9th seed NCAA bid (best case scenario) to no bid (worst case scenario).

For the conference, we have 1 locked bid plus 2 or 3 more bids.

Finally, there is the Perkins factor. These prognostications are figured with a Perkins free team.  There is no getting around it , the loss of Perkins was significant.    Is the season over? ...Do we have little or no chance to make the Dance?  This is the conclusion that a lot of forecasters have reached. After running the numbers, I am happy to report my numbers are much more optimistic than   a lot of the "experts".  To paraphrase Mark Twain ...Reports of the demise of the Billikens have been greatly exaggerated.  While we are no longer a lock for a Dance bid , we still have a very good chance to Dance.

Here is how the seasons project on a won loss basis.....

24-6....most probable and not too shabby

27-3...Best case scenario.

21- 9 ...worst case scenario...barring some unforeseen surprise....like losing more players

Toughest games.....Memphis and St. B away...easiest games...C Ark  and EIU...most important game ...St. B at home

Our chances at this point at B+ are 54% to get an NCAA bid.  If Ford can work his magic and get the team to gel as the season progresses, we may see some extra action in the 2nd half of March.

Go Bills

 

I think the Best Case scenario is actually 30-0, which I also see as the most likely scenario. 

[cheeseman]

Others have said this before about the loss of Perkins - it is tough and a big loss but we have the talent to make up for it the question is how long will it take for the new roles to be sorted out.  To me that is the big question.