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Big East expansion coming?


wgstl

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1 minute ago, brianstl said:

I have always thought that Richmond was a strong sleeper candidate for a Big East invite and far more likely than VCU for institutional reasons.

easily the top sleeper pick.

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7 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Fox contract with the BE opens for negotiations in Feb 2024... 8 months to go....tick...tick...tick

I do wonder how much a traditional DMA will matter in these rounds of negotiations versus some sort of alumni/fan/program metric. When the very first Big East/Fox deal was signed, there were about 20 million more cable subscribers and millions less streaming capable homes. 

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24 minutes ago, thetorch said:

VCU will get in.

The A10 will respond by adding Old Dominion, James Madison, & Binghamton.

The A10 implodes in 3 years.

SLU joins the Ohio Valley with our natural rivals Lindenwood & SIUE.

Ford receives his 4th extension.  He is now making more than all the other coaches in the OVC combined.  He still has just one NCAA appearance at SLU....but has won 20 games 5 years in a row.

Another chance for Chris May to blow the Big East opportunity!

Its somewhere between a solar eclipse and haley's comet in frequency but equally as disappointing everytime.

But hey women's underwater basket weaving is setting records so all is well. 

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Just now, JMM28 said:

I do wonder how much a traditional DMA will matter in these rounds of negotiations versus some sort of alumni/fan/program metric. When the very first Big East/Fox deal was signed, there were about 20 million more cable subscribers and millions less streaming capable homes. 

I think it still matters.  It appears from the shake out in Bally's bankruptcy that traditional over the air TV is going to be a big part of TV sports deals again going forward.  That means TV market size is important.  Also, for the streamers the TV markets represent the size of a potential customer base the product can attract.

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Some MBM posters seem to like to spread half of the story.

Yes the Big 12 is talking/going to expand eventually to 16.  At their league meetings this week, Gonzaga's consultant Navigate, was present.  Gonzaga is looking for a P5 move.  UConn would be a 'complimentary move' with Gonzaga.  The Big 12 Commish did take a fact finding trip to UConn as reported in the Athletic.  Why would UConn move? Simply put they would receive 3X to 4X amount of money from the Big 12 (or ACC or Big 10) then they are today in the Big East.  Their football team, which is pathetic, would have to put on the afterburners to come up to P5 speed.  With the revolving portal door, that is doable.  Why wouldn't they leave the Big East?  They have a boat load of NCAA tourney shares that they would leave behind; they would have to pay a fairly large exit fee; they would not get full revenue from the Big 12, or other P5 school, for several years.  So if invited, is UConn looking at short term $ or long term $.  They also have rivalries that would be left behind, but rivalries have become almost trivial.  Money over opponent.

The Big 12 is seriously considering several Pac 12 and other schools.  Colorado is first on their list, as are Arizona, Arizona State and San Diego State.  The Pac 12's negotiation for a new TV contract is the first domino.  And it doesn't look good for the Pac 12 today. 

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2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Some MBM posters seem to like to spread half of the story.

Yes the Big 12 is talking/going to expand eventually to 16.  At their league meetings this week, Gonzaga's consultant Navigate, was present.  Gonzaga is looking for a P5 move.  UConn would be a 'complimentary move' with Gonzaga.  The Big 12 Commish did take a fact finding trip to UConn as reported in the Athletic.  Why would UConn move? Simply put they would receive 3X to 4X amount of money from the Big 12 (or ACC or Big 10) then they are today in the Big East.  Their football team, which is pathetic, would have to put on the afterburners to come up to P5 speed.  With the revolving portal door, that is doable.  Why wouldn't they leave the Big East?  They have a boat load of NCAA tourney shares that they would leave behind; they would have to pay a fairly large exit fee; they would not get full revenue from the Big 12, or other P5 school, for several years.  So if invited, is UConn looking at short term $ or long term $.  They also have rivalries that would be left behind, but rivalries have become almost trivial.  Money over opponent.

The Big 12 is seriously considering several Pac 12 and other schools.  Colorado is first on their list, as are Arizona, Arizona State and San Diego State.  The Pac 12's negotiation for a new TV contract is the first domino.  And it doesn't look good for the Pac 12 today. 

SLU to the Pac 12?

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12 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I think it still matters.  It appears from the shake out in Bally's bankruptcy that traditional over the air TV is going to be a big part of TV sports deals again going forward.  That means TV market size is important.  Also, for the streamers the TV markets represent the size of a potential customer base the product can attract.

I don't think it matters all that much, TBH.  The modern day Big East has shown it doesn't care if a school is in a small market (Creighton), public (UConn), or non-Catholic (Butler).  They're looking for winning hoops programs.

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47 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

SLU in the Big East would be a dream come true. Unfortunately we haven’t won anywhere close enough games in men’s hoops to be a legitimate candidate. 

Are we sure this is the criteria? Have we seen that from someone at the BE? Not arguing that our performance has been less than inspiring in men's basketball, just wondering if that is the most important criterai for adding a member. And this is an honest question, I have no idea how these decisons are made or what criteria is used.

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TV market, in our situation, is seriously overrated.  Yes STL has 4 million + potential viewers but this SLU basketball.  Even during Spoonballs height, with only over the air tv, Billikens broadcast on 11 and 5 our ratings never were comparable to any sports in town and lagged behind Mi$$ou.

What good is a media market if no one is going to watch your product?

I'd rather have Dayton's 800k potential viewers where maybe a quarter of those could watch a dayton game than SLU's .00000000000001 portion of the area's population who would even consider watching a SLU game.

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4 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

I don't think it matters all that much, TBH.  The modern day Big East has shown it doesn't care if a school is in a small market (Creighton), public (UConn), or non-Catholic (Butler).  They're looking for winning hoops programs.

I'm not saying it matters to the Big East.  It doesn't matter as much to the Big East schools because without football teams to drive massive media rights, the NCAA tournament credits are a far larger percentage of the income generated in the Big East than in the P5.  If they think you can generate NCAA tournament credits, your chances of getting in become much higher.

I think market size still matters to the media rights partners when it comes to what they offer.  

All that said,  I don't think the Big East adds anyone right away if UConn leaves.  They wait and see what their their options are are when they are negotiating their next contract.

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16 minutes ago, shempie said:

Are we sure this is the criteria? Have we seen that from someone at the BE? Not arguing that our performance has been less than inspiring in men's basketball, just wondering if that is the most important criterai for adding a member. And this is an honest question, I have no idea how these decisons are made or what criteria is used.

Yes, look at the teams that were additions when the old BE fell. 
 

Butler: consistent winner at the mid-major level, on and off ranked in the years prior to the move, and 2 time Final Four participant in recent years. Also a huge level of fan support. 
 

Xavier and Creighton: same story as Butler without the F4’s. Rabid fanbases with big attendance numbers. 
 

UConn: legacy Big East member with multiple national titles in the last 25 years, including 1 in their brief time in the American. 
 

Winning will be a huge criteria of any addition, since each tournament team earns NCAA credits. Why add a team that doesn’t make the dance consistently? 

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15 minutes ago, shempie said:

Are we sure this is the criteria? Have we seen that from someone at the BE? Not arguing that our performance has been less than inspiring in men's basketball, just wondering if that is the most important criterai for adding a member. And this is an honest question, I have no idea how these decisons are made or what criteria is used.

The ability to generate NCAA tournament units are really important to the members of the Big East.  The TV deal with Fox brought in around $50 million last season and NCAA tournament units earned in the 2023 tournament will bring in $30 million.  

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

And it doesn't look good for the Pac 12 today. 

The Pac10 had an inherent advantage in the P5 war as they were the only conference on the west coast. All the west coast major media markets (6 of the top 20 in the country), hypothetically better academic institutions, and a massive mountain range to cross to invade them. 

Somehow they screwed it up and are on the brink of extinction. Amazingly inept management that would make their fellow California government officials blush. 

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1 hour ago, thetorch said:

TV market, in our situation, is seriously overrated.  Yes STL has 4 million + potential viewers but this SLU basketball.  Even during Spoonballs height, with only over the air tv, Billikens broadcast on 11 and 5 our ratings never were comparable to any sports in town and lagged behind Mi$$ou.

What good is a media market if no one is going to watch your product?

I'd rather have Dayton's 800k potential viewers where maybe a quarter of those could watch a dayton game than SLU's .00000000000001 portion of the area's population who would even consider watching a SLU game.

There's still something to be said for media market even if the Bills aren't getting Cardinals-like viewership. There's a reason that schools like Rutgers and Cincy get scooped while Western Kentucky and Memphis get left behind. Conferences want to be in the biggest possible media markets.

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3 minutes ago, Compton said:

There's still something to be said for media market even if the Bills aren't getting Cardinals-like viewership. There's a reason that schools like Rutgers and Cincy get scooped while Western Kentucky and Memphis get left behind. Conferences want to be in the biggest possible media markets.

always.  Tv markets are the biggest drivers in conf realignment regardless of what people want to think. But along with that, you also have to win. 

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9 hours ago, brianstl said:

I'm not saying it matters to the Big East.  It doesn't matter as much to the Big East schools because without football teams to drive massive media rights, the NCAA tournament credits are a far larger percentage of the income generated in the Big East than in the P5.  If they think you can generate NCAA tournament credits, your chances of getting in become much higher.

I think market size still matters to the media rights partners when it comes to what they offer.  

All that said,  I don't think the Big East adds anyone right away if UConn leaves.  They wait and see what their their options are are when they are negotiating their next contract.

And that TV negotiating window opens in Feb 2024...after game 22...might be better to be 19-3 than 12-11 at that point to be under consideration. As pointed out in the above posts, there are many factors that go into the decision but the BE has always been...what have you done lately that would benefit me.

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IF the Big East were to expand by 1 , think we are out, Dayton or VCU .

However if they wanted to add 3 , we may be included

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