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2021-2022 Season


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Torvik 2021-22 projections https://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

#20 Bonnies

#36 Richmond

#62 SLU

#67 VCU

#76 Rhody

#98 UMASS

#116 UD

#150 Davidson

#165 GMU

#174 Dukes

#218 Fordham ( ! )

#235 LaSalle

#243 GW

#282 St Joes

 

I agree with the order of the top 4, but feel like that gap should be a little smaller, perhaps all in the top 60

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Big drop from Richmond to SLU. I don't get all the love for Richmond. Yes, they're coming back in toto but unless they've bolstered their bench, it's still a 6 maybe 7 man rotation. You need more than that these days with the China Plague, see NY Yankees for proof, and dealing with normal injury situations. Question for Taj Mahal 79, our A10 guru, is my assessment of Richmond fair?  Good for Mooney, though, as the returnees may have pulled his wool out of the fire. 

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4 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Big drop from Richmond to SLU. I don't get all the love for Richmond. Yes, they're coming back in toto but unless they've bolstered their bench, it's still a 6 maybe 7 man rotation. You need more than that these days with the China Plague, see NY Yankees for proof, and dealing with normal injury situations. Question for Taj Mahal 79, our A10 guru, is my assessment of Richmond fair?  Good for Mooney, though, as the returnees may have pulled his wool out of the fire. 

I don't agree with Richmond being that high, but I do agree with them being higher than us.  Both SLU and Richmond should be in the late 40's high 50's. Okoro and Nesbitt are too big of question marks to solidify us in the top 2 or top 40 imo.

 

 

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@slu72 --- team performance is based on team composition in my book and who plays what roles and when.  With Blake Francis gone the question for Richmond becomes who can create their own shot?  Is that Sherod, with two surgically repaired knees?  Time will tell.  I don't think so.  Also, with Francis jacking them last year, Jacob Gilyard reverted to a more traditional PG role.  He dished out 5 apg while playing his usual stellar defense and getting 3.6 steals per game.  His points per game were down slightly from the previous year but that was a 4 point drop from the year before Francis arrived.  I think his scoring will go up which will make him a more dangerous player as he was as a true sophomore.  The question will be who replaces Francis' 16.1 ppg.  Sherod's best year was also as a sophomore when he averaged a little over 14 ppg.  He is a different type of player than Francis ---- he is more stationary than Francis and not so much the waterbug/creator.  Overall, they will be another decent five but yes, they are suspect after that.

Late this year, Richmond fell apart.  Without Sherod to begin with, they lost Francis and Golden to injury and limped down the stretch, losing their last three in conference, before beating Toldeo in the NIT then losing to Mississippi State.  The closing loss was done on a three-pointer at the buzzer giving State a one point win.  The bright side in this was the on-court education received by Richmond's minor players .... Matt Grace, Sal Kouriessi, and Isiah WIlson.  Theyheld their own and gained experience, which is hard to quantify.  Missing in all this is the nice developmental year Trey Burton had at the small forward position.  But that is Sherod's position so how does that chemistry work next year?  Another unknown.  Plus, they return Tulane transfer Connor Crabtree from a season long injury as well.  If nothin else, the bench got better this year for the rash of injuries.

There is nothing to get excited about in the Richmond pipeline.  They have four guys signed to LOIs but none is rated above two stars and the tallest is 6'6".  Nathan Cayo is a nice piece in th elane.  Grant Golden does well enough inside or out.  Burton, Gilyard and Sherod have all been discussed.  This is the same team as it was at this point last year minus Francis but with some better depth on the bench due to experience.  Replacing Francis' scoring and workign Burton and Sherod into a decent co-existence will be key.  But again, no major injuries to the starting five.  And they haven't avoided that curse the last two years.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Torvik 2021-22 projections https://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

#20 Bonnies

#36 Richmond

#62 SLU

#67 VCU

#76 Rhody

#98 UMASS

#116 UD

#150 Davidson

#165 GMU

#174 Dukes

#218 Fordham ( ! )

#235 LaSalle

#243 GW

#282 St Joes

 

I agree with the order of the top 4, but feel like that gap should be a little smaller, perhaps all in the top 60

It goes without saying that you should take any pre-season rankings with a grain of salt.  I do like looking at Torvik to get a baseline of how good teams might be next season.  I feel like SLU is potentially underrated by quite a bit for 2 reasons. 

#1 - I think his time at Memphis is weighted fairly heavily into Nesbitt's projection rather than him just being in there are a top 60ish freshmen.  Nesbitt is only projected to play 29% of minutes (roughly 12 a game) and be our 8th best offensive option.  I think we'd all be very disappointed in the outcome.  If you project Nesbitt to be much better & get a higher minutes %, then SLU is much better.  

#2 - Likewise, I think Okoro may be underrated because of sitting last year and playing injured during his time at Oregon.

I'm not saying this to knock Torvik's system because I don't think there is an objective way to account for those guys.  Just thinking those guys are X factors that could make SLU much better than Torvik's projection system would show.

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I think the same factor applies to SLU --- chemistry.  We will be coming off four years of a Goodwin/French team and that alone will be interesting to factor in.  Leadership roles will need to be defined.  Is this Javonte Perkin's team?  I felt he deferred to Goodwn and French the last two years which is understandable.  How does he do this year?  Is this Yuri Collins' team?  If so, he needs to step up in the PPG arena while maintaining his stellar distribution skills.  Does Francis Okoro step in and replace French; ditto Nesbitt or Thatch for Goodwin?  It's easy to say yes but in many cases, it takes time for things to develop.  Replacing parts is not as simple as getting new batteries.  One only need to look back at the Tremaine Isabell addition to realize it takes some time.  

The Bonnies and Spiders return practically everybody.  The Bonnies are defending champs and upgraded the bench over Velaquez and Shaw with Linton, the Pitt transfer and the JUCO big.  You can't argue over them.  Richmond is back to where they were this time last year with Sherod taking over for Francis.  VCU has to replace Hyland and a lot of their offensive game.  I'm guessing that Rhode Island and Umass get higher rankings due to returning players and, in Umass' case, transfers, over Dayton and their youth.  The Dayton in February will be much better than the Dayton in November barring any unforeseen circumstances.  Davidson and anything below them is a crap shoot guess for me now.  

Can't figure out how Fordham got so high.

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9 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I think the same factor applies to SLU --- chemistry.  We will be coming off four years of a Goodwin/French team and that alone will be interesting to factor in.  Leadership roles will need to be defined.  Is this Javonte Perkin's team?  I felt he deferred to Goodwn and French the last two years which is understandable.  How does he do this year?  Is this Yuri Collins' team?  If so, he needs to step up in the PPG arena while maintaining his stellar distribution skills.  Does Francis Okoro step in and replace French; ditto Nesbitt or Thatch for Goodwin?  It's easy to say yes but in many cases, it takes time for things to develop.  Replacing parts is not as simple as getting new batteries.  One only need to look back at the Tremaine Isabell addition to realize it takes some time.  

The Bonnies and Spiders return practically everybody.  The Bonnies are defending champs and upgraded the bench over Velaquez and Shaw with Linton, the Pitt transfer and the JUCO big.  You can't argue over them.  Richmond is back to where they were this time last year with Sherod taking over for Francis.  VCU has to replace Hyland and a lot of their offensive game.  I'm guessing that Rhode Island and Umass get higher rankings due to returning players and, in Umass' case, transfers, over Dayton and their youth.  The Dayton in February will be much better than the Dayton in November barring any unforeseen circumstances.  Davidson and anything below them is a crap shoot guess for me now.  

Can't figure out how Fordham got so high.

This is Javonte's team. I think it was his team last year on the offensive side of the ball. When we needed to score he was the one who had the ball. 

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52 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

I predict this will be a Perkins and Okoro team next year 

Perkins Okoro both dominate and TJ will average around 9 ppg... I think those will be our three stars offensively. I also hope for Yuri to keep getting better and get healthy.

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I'm hoping Yurimania is this year's bus driver. Although, I'm semi expecting  JGood's return to the team for a last hurrah season. Sitting here in Charleston, SC I have no basis in fact for having this feeling other than I don't think he's going to like what he hears from the NBA. French is gone gone gone. So, Okoro has an open field. And don't forget Linssen. He was a pleasant surprise last year. That said I hope one of our big 3 is hard at work on a mid range jumper from 10-15 feet, elsewise, we're gonna be too predictable when we toss it inside. Think St. B tourney game if you need proof. 

Big factor this year will be keeping everyone focused on it's a team game. We need contributions from everyone and every game. Big or small doesn't matter as long as it results in a W. That means no hero ball, which we saw a lot of post covid. Time to shelve the egos and play solid team basketball, ala Rick's teams. The talent's there. Now it's Travis' job to mold it all into a finely tuned machine.  

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"I heard, somebody said etc"........ruining this great country.

If I was JG I would go anywhere but here. Scouts know what they know all of us have seen him more than any scout. He is never going to be one of the 64 most coveted non signed people in the NBA draft. Same for Has. If they are the 1% or so student athletes that is in it for the schooling they should go somewhere else and get a bankable free good 5th year. If they're like the rest of folks they should find a fit both $$ & comfort and play pro ball. We have enough ex Bills out there that have played in a variety of leagues and can offer them guidance. Their upside is considerably brighter than most liberal arts grads in this era. It used to be a thing for many grads to take a year off to explore, travel. One year in any of those euro leagues would give one a great jumping off point for getting a lifetime of wanderlust for most. Imagine banking 100K a season for 3 seasons in 3 different leagues and get to travel in whatever continent you pick. again all my opinion. I almost hope for his sake he does not return. 

 

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@willie --- sure, it was Perkins' team on the offensive end, but that didn't make it HIS team.  I mean, who else on the roster could create their own shot, make it more times than not, and be dead-eyed from the foul line if fouled?  In that realm we had no other options.  Teams dared Goodwin and Collins to shoot and both were an adventure at the line.  Both Jimerson and Hargrove had to be created for.  Thatch still hasn't shown me any real trademark offense.  And if French got the ball --- hack city.  So yes on that end of the floor, it was Javonte's team.

But I don't think it was the same in the locker room or on the practice court.  I read countless stories on Goodwin and French being the coach on the floor.  They did the talking in the huddle before foul shots.  They were the qunitessential face of this team and rightly so.  That is also why I am so interested to see what transpires without them.  We've had four years or so and have one Dance to show for it.  I'm ready for other entertainment.

I think it also will go far in showing me more of what Ford is made of.  If we come down to February and the offense is weave/motion for twelve seconda and then clear out for a Javonte one-on-one move ..... call me unimpressed.  This is the third year for Jimmy Bell, TJ, Jimerson, Thatch and Collins.  Have they developed and how?  There isn't a big man in the league with Jimmy's size now that Mitchell is gone.  Those remaining are bean poles.  Jimmy needs to be there every game.  The refrain of "Free TJ" has been uttered numerous times by my colleagues.  The third year is usually the charm.  Ditto Thatch and Jimerson (injuries notwithstanding).  And we all know Collins needs to grow an individual offensive game.  And that is not even touching on Okoro, Linssen, Nesbitt or Williams.  The future looks bright.

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11 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

@willie --- sure, it was Perkins' team on the offensive end, but that didn't make it HIS team.  I mean, who else on the roster could create their own shot, make it more times than not, and be dead-eyed from the foul line if fouled?  In that realm we had no other options.  Teams dared Goodwin and Collins to shoot and both were an adventure at the line.  Both Jimerson and Hargrove had to be created for.  Thatch still hasn't shown me any real trademark offense.  And if French got the ball --- hack city.  So yes on that end of the floor, it was Javonte's team.

But I don't think it was the same in the locker room or on the practice court.  I read countless stories on Goodwin and French being the coach on the floor.  They did the talking in the huddle before foul shots.  They were the qunitessential face of this team and rightly so.  That is also why I am so interested to see what transpires without them.  We've had four years or so and have one Dance to show for it.  I'm ready for other entertainment.

I think it also will go far in showing me more of what Ford is made of.  If we come down to February and the offense is weave/motion for twelve seconda and then clear out for a Javonte one-on-one move ..... call me unimpressed.  This is the third year for Jimmy Bell, TJ, Jimerson, Thatch and Collins.  Have they developed and how?  There isn't a big man in the league with Jimmy's size now that Mitchell is gone.  Those remaining are bean poles.  Jimmy needs to be there every game.  The refrain of "Free TJ" has been uttered numerous times by my colleagues.  The third year is usually the charm.  Ditto Thatch and Jimerson (injuries notwithstanding).  And we all know Collins needs to grow an individual offensive game.  And that is not even touching on Okoro, Linssen, Nesbitt or Williams.  The future looks bright.

I agree with almost everything you have stated here. My disagreement is with the 12 second weave criticism. I know Roy and others have stated criticism. Almost every team I watch does it at some point . Purpose is to move the defense to allow a one on one or a pass to a cutter. If you are unimpressed it’s with a lot of coaches not just Ford. 

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3 hours ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

French would do much better spending the next year trying to be a TE in the NFL

I see this a lot but I’m not sure this is an option for French. I think people forget how hard it is to play in the NFL. People who have been training their entire lives can’t make it.

We have no idea if French is fast enough or if he can catch a pass. 
Mo Alie-Cox is always thrown out there as a comp but he ran a 4.75 40. That is some serious speed for a guy his size.

plus there is a good chance French doesn’t want to risk brain damage when he could make a great living overseas playing the sport he loves.

 

Then again if Tim Tebow can do it at 33 years old, why the heck can’t French. 😉 

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6 hours ago, dennis_w said:

Just putting out what I heard, time will tell if it comes to fruition 

What if they come back to win the whole damn thing for Ford Stuen? Maybe they had some deep introspective “you have one life to live” moment and they decided to live for Ford and play a year in his memory? 
 

Hey, it could happen. 

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@ willie ---- I understand what you are saying reference the weave however, the tyhree defenders just stand there in stationary positions and switch off on the men as they switch ball possession.  So the defense does not move and no one ever cuts.  I know a lot of teams do it and that does not make it right for me.  Waste of valuable time ....  if you have trouble bringing th eball upo, you start then with a 20 second half court clock.  Weaving for any amount of time wastes more precious seconds and puts you straight into 'hero" mode.  Of course, my opinion.

I'll watch more closely thi syear and see if anything special develops off the weave.  

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