The Bills over MsSt by 3

[The Wiz]

I guess 50-50 meant 50% for a Dance bid  and 50% for an NIT bid.  It was looking like we were in on Fri night but the 2 bid stealers on Sat flipped the coin to the NIT.  The last week was truly bubble hell.  As I pointed out earlier, once we lost that game to St. B we were at 50-50 and at the mercy of the Committee. The Committee is about 85% metrics and 15% subjective. What that means is,  about 10 teams every year fall into bubble hell ...68 x15%= 10 teams.  And the metrics stop for those 10 teams.   It has always been that way .... the cloud drops down for a week while The Committee decides "who is most deserving". 

 

Anyway, we have some more basketball to play.  We come into this game as an A- team trending at B+....MsSt shows up with an overall grade of B+ trending at B (15-14...8-10).  Two good defenses, close to equal...we are the better team on offense. This will be a low scoring game...70pts should win the game. A concern I have is that by the time we take the floor it will be nearly 2 weeks....We may have to shake off some rust.

 

Let's see what we are dealing with ....

 

 

..........................SLU.............................MsSt.............................SLU...................................MsSt

..........................................OFF..........................................................................DEF...............

PPG......................B+...............................D+................................A-........................................B+

FG%......................B+...............................B-................................B+........................................A

3Pt%.....................B-................................C-................................C+.......................................B

FT%......................C-....... ........................F.................................................................................

Reb.......................A-.................................A.................................A+...12th ITN........................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense...None..............Defense .......3P%

Down...Offense....FG%...3P%...Reb.........Defense......none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins...9th ...up

Rebs...Goodwin....13th....dn

Stls......Goodwin...62nd....up

FT%....Perkins...52nd......unch

Double Double....Goodwin...7th ....dn

Double Double %....Goodwin....2nd

MsSt

Reb....T Smith....56th

FG%....T Smith...81st

Blks...Ado...28th

Injuries ....Strickland...3/6/21...Covid protocols 

A report card note...I have added a new category ...Double Double %...This stat doesn't appear anywhere...I decided this would show the true position of Goodwin.  The NCAA uses just the raw numbers...ie  total double doubles...Goodwin will always be at a disadvantage because he has played the fewest games. Doing it this way makes for a better comparison.....number of double double games divided by total games = 14 /20=70% which is a very high %....  good for 2nd place in Div 1.

This game presents some unusual challenges ...They have 2 big men T Smith (6'11") their reb guy and Ado (6'10") their blocker and other reb guy. ...and yes they are both in at the same time.  Needless to say they are a good rebounding team.  On the plus side (for us) they can't shoot FTs...only Molinar and Stewart can shoot from the charity stripe. More good news ....this team is TO prone,  we have got to bother them...if we do they will give us the ball.

WWN2D2W.....MsSt is a 3 man team ...stop their 3 main guys and we win....Molinar, Stewart and Smith...hold them to 35pts.  Don't let them jump out to an early big  lead...control the game ...pressure them.  We need to win the TO battle by 3 or 4 .  Reb  will be tough ...we need to be better than them even if only by 1 board....Don't let Ado turn into a fly swatter...that strategy didn't work well against St. B.....  no more than 2 blocks for Ado. And finally, makes some shots...48/36/72

Bottom line...we are the better team  especially on offense.  We have to make them play our game...........If we do...it'll be round 2.

[JettFlight5]

More great analysis from the Wiz. I was hoping he'd get to break down a game in the Big Dance for us, but this is what is happening. 

[billikenbill]

Last night, I finally watched on replay the semi-final vs. the Bonnies. That was a buttugly way to start the week. Not only did we miss shot after shot and commit two handfuls of unforced turnovers, but St.B got away with at least 2 goaltends, and made a number of shots that normally wouldn’t fall. 

Now, I’m not sure if we never fully recovered from Covid or were playing above our heads the first month. With a few exceptions, we’ve trended to look more like we did against St.B. than we did against LSU. At this point, my hopes are high for the NIT but expectations are low.

More importantly, can we continue to upgrade our talent level to keep up with the Daytons, VCUs, Davidsons, and the Bonnies. Right now, we’ll be ranked no higher than 4th in the A-10 to start the season.

[Old guy]

Does anyone has any doubt that Covid was the factor that spoiled our chances this season?

[2010andBeyond]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Does anyone has any doubt that Covid was the factor that spoiled our chances this season?

I think it’s certainly possible that we were never as good as we thought we were. Yes, LSU was a good win but it was also a home game that went down to the wire. NCST was not a good team and that was being touted as one of our good wins. It was a name win, but not a good win. Minnesota was playing well at home when we played them but that was a missed opportunity. We seemed to keep our computer metrics up by beating inferior teams to a pulp. Even ignoring the two COVID games, we were not world beaters in the A-10. Needed a minor miracle to get that top 4 bye. 
 

Objectively, COVID robbed us of a full season and our original schedule which would have given us a much better understanding of how good this team really was. Now, we will never know. I think it’s possible that without the COVID pause we would’ve had our usual Jan/Feb uptick in performance and became a true top 25 team, but it’s also possible we were just a top 50 team all along. 

[wgstl]

1 minute ago, 2010andBeyond said:

I think it’s certainly possible that we were never as good as we thought we were. Yes, LSU was a good win but it was also a home game that went down to the wire. NCST was not a good team and that was being touted as one of our good wins. It was a name win, but not a good win. Minnesota was playing well at home when we played them but that was a missed opportunity. We seemed to keep our computer metrics up by beating inferior teams to a pulp. Even ignoring the two COVID games, we were not world beaters in the A-10. Needed a minor miracle to get that top 4 bye. 
 

We didn't catch LSU on a bad night, they played very well that game, and it was one of LSU's best played games all year. 

One computer model had Sota as the #1 home team in the nation around the time we played them.  That's right, you would have been ecstatic about a single digit loss at Gonzaga.

NC state game was sloppy, really for both.  But they had Dotson that game.  and we still won by double digits. Also, they finished in the middle of the conference while short handed. 

[Cowboy]

-I have to believe we never recovered from Covid as I have no other way to explain the StB game that doesn't implicate the players and/or coaches

[Littlebill]

37 minutes ago, wgstl said:

We didn't catch LSU on a bad night, they played very well that game, and it was one of LSU's best played games all year. 

One computer model had Sota as the #1 home team in the nation around the time we played them.  That's right, you would have been ecstatic about a single digit loss at Gonzaga.

NC state game was sloppy, really for both.  But they had Dotson that game.  and we still won by double digits. Also, they finished in the middle of the conference while short handed. 

Yes - that NC State win at the time was the equivalent of a top 50 win. Dotson made a huge difference. 

[ACE]

For me, it's pretty simple without covid, we're sailing our way to an auto bid. But even with covid, we still should have gotten in. It all comes down to the VCU game. Without Bones, we have to win that game.  We had a couple of bad possessions in the final two minutes of the game and that was the difference. That's how close we got to getting in.

[3star_recruit]

If the worst thing that happened to you this year was seeing the Billikens miss the tournament, then you've had a pretty good year.

[The Wiz]

First let me dispel a misnomer. You can't become a great team by playing all cupcakes.  If you play all F teams you will lose your A rating.    In my model , I always put a warning  at the beginning of the year that the model is using predictive data rather than real data.  By the time we get to the 8th game,  it is all real data.  By the 12th game  there is enough data to remove a lot of the volatility.  This year we started at B+ with a range of  B- to A.... The 12th game this year was the KC game finishing out the OOC schedule...also unusual due to the late  season start.  After the KC game we were an A team with a range of A- to A+.   An A - meant that we were almost assured of a Dance bid (90% chance...we drew the 10% Covid card) ...An A+ finish would have meant a good chance to be a sweet 16 team.    The point is we were a good team...that got Covid and it affected our play.

Studies have shown that up to 25% of  college athletes can have long term symptoms (right now that is at least 2 months ) Another 25% can have lingering affects.  That means we could have had 3-6 players who were affected....You have good days and bad days...it comes and goes....one thing that is not good with this syndrome is back to back games...think St. B.  Not trying to make excuses ...just trying to provide some context.

Bottom line...We were and still are a good team.....A- to A+.  I am hoping if we can make a run through the NIT we can back to the A level and maybe even reach our potential A+ level.  While we won't reach the 30 game mark this year a few more wins will build a nice base for a good start for next year and better media coverage too.

We were not picked for the Dance....we need to show everyone that they made a mistake  and that we are deserving....deserving not through some Selection Committee hocus pocus but deserving through winning.

[billiken_roy]

56 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

First let me dispel a misnomer. You can't become a great team by playing all cupcakes.  If you play all F teams you will lose your A rating.    In my model , I always put a warning  at the beginning of the year that the model is using predictive data rather than real data.  By the time we get to the 8th game,  it is all real data.  By the 12th game  there is enough data to remove a lot of the volatility.  This year we started at B+ with a range of  B- to A.... The 12th game this year was the KC game finishing out the OOC schedule...also unusual due to the late  season start.  After the KC game we were an A team with a range of A- to A+.   An A - meant that we were almost assured of a Dance bid (90% chance...we drew the 10% Covid card) ...An A+ finish would have meant a good chance to be a sweet 16 team.    The point is we were a good team...that got Covid and it affected our play.

Studies have shown that up to 25% of  college athletes can have long term symptoms (right now that is at least 2 months ) Another 25% can have lingering affects.  That means we could have had 3-6 players who were affected....You have good days and bad days...it comes and goes....one thing that is not good with this syndrome is back to back games...think St. B.  Not trying to make excuses ...just trying to provide some context.

Bottom line...We were and still are a good team.....A- to A+.  I am hoping if we can make a run through the NIT we can back to the A level and maybe even reach our potential A+ level.  While we won't reach the 30 game mark this year a few more wins will build a nice base for a good start for next year and better media coverage too.

We were not picked for the Dance....we need to show everyone that they made a mistake  and that we are deserving....deserving not through some Selection Committee hocus pocus but deserving through winning.

explain drake please.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

explain drake please.

On my model ....both Drake and the Bills were even and should have both  been in.  But on the Selection Committee bubble model, I will use their phraseology.....We pick the most "deserving" teams.   I will leave it to you to decipher what that means.

 

[slufanskip]

2 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-I have to believe we never recovered from Covid as I have no other way to explain the StB game that doesn't implicate the players and/or coaches

This is where I'm strongly at. I've read a lot on athletes from other sports also talking about how long they just felt lethargic and didn't have their normal energy level. Most felt it was with them for months. We had 11 of 15 players get it. 

This is why I'll have a problem supporting Coach Ford IF and this is only IF he knew and put our team at risk. 

[Major Majerus]

I’ve seen 5 MS St games - when they shoot like we did against the  Bonnies, it is ugly... but they can light it up.  Interesting game for sure. 🥸

[Schasz]

I watched them play the Vols and it was a butt ugly win for the Vols. Frankly, I'd be happy with a butt ugly win by the Bills over Miss State.

[The Wiz]

The return of rust. After a 2 week layoff ...we played like it.  But it wasn't just us...St. B also went cold in the 1st half in their loss. Had VCU played their game, they too would have been cold. Hmm.... what happened here. I believe the shortening of the season plus a 2 week layoff caused the coldness.  Teams go cold after 2 weeks or more of layoffs  We saw that in our 4 week layoff and you can see it repeated over and over through out Div 1.  I place this blame directly on the A-10...by changing the schedule...shortening the season and moving the A-10 tourney up... they set up the A-10 to fail.  Rant over ...let's see what happened in the game....

Bold print from original post in this thread....

makes some shots...48/36/72 ...This was pretty much the ball game. For the game we shot ...42/27/73...But  look at  the 1st half ...35/22/67...had we just shot anywhere close  we would have made one more 3 and three more 2s....which would have taken us up to....48/33/67...or 9 more points...which would have made the final score ...Bills by 3.

stop their 3 main guys and we win....Molinar, Stewart and Smith...hold them to 35pts. ...47pts...fail

 they can't shoot FTs...only Molinar and Stewart can shoot from the charity stripe ....This turned out to be true...as they both shot 88%...rest of the team shot 57%...The problem here is Molinar and Stewart  took 78% of all the FT shots.

Reb  will be tough ...we need to be better than them even if only by 1 board ...Another miss as they out rebound us 35-32

We need to win the TO battle by 3 or 4 ...We had 4 less TOs...This kept us in the game.

no more than 2 blocks for Ado ....No blks for Ado...This was a help too.

Bottom line ....If you can't shoot...you can't win...We played good enough to win in the 2nd half ....not just on shooting numbers but we outscored them 42-41...Unfortunately, it takes 2 halves to win.

After the Final 4 (Apr 6th), I will do a final report card and review  on The Bills and the A-10.

 

 

[thatskablamo]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

The return of rust. After a 2 week layoff ...we played like it.  But it wasn't just us...St. B also went cold in the 1st half in their loss. Had VCU played their game, they too would have been cold. Hmm.... what happened here. I believe the shortening of the season plus a 2 week layoff caused the coldness.  Teams go cold after 2 weeks or more of layoffs  We saw that in our 4 week layoff and you can see it repeated over and over through out Div 1.  I place this blame directly on the A-10...by changing the schedule...shortening the season and moving the A-10 tourney up... they set up the A-10 to fail.  Rant over ...let's see what happened in the game....

Bold print from original post in this thread....

makes some shots...48/36/72 ...This was pretty much the ball game. For the game we shot ...42/27/73...But  look at  the 1st half ...35/22/67...had we just shot anywhere close  we would have made one more 3 and three more 2s....which would have taken us up to....48/33/67...or 9 more points...which would have made the final score ...Bills by 3.

stop their 3 main guys and we win....Molinar, Stewart and Smith...hold them to 35pts. ...47pts...fail

 they can't shoot FTs...only Molinar and Stewart can shoot from the charity stripe ....This turned out to be true...as they both shot 88%...rest of the team shot 57%...The problem here is Molinar and Stewart  took 78% of all the FT shots.

Reb  will be tough ...we need to be better than them even if only by 1 board ...Another miss as they out rebound us 35-32

We need to win the TO battle by 3 or 4 ...We had 4 less TOs...This kept us in the game.

no more than 2 blocks for Ado ....No blks for Ado...This was a help too.

Bottom line ....If you can't shoot...you can't win...We played good enough to win in the 2nd half ....not just on shooting numbers but we outscored them 42-41...Unfortunately, it takes 2 halves to win.

After the Final 4 (Apr 6th), I will do a final report card and review  on The Bills and the A-10.

 

 

More like an autopsy than a final review, Wiz. Great work, as always. Stats don’t lie.