Popular Post The Wiz Posted March 2, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted March 2, 2021 Well, the strange twist happened and the A10 gods smiled down on us as St. J upset Rich at Rich and gave us the coveted double bye. Now what? This doesn't mean we are Dancing but the road to the Dance is a lot simpler. One less game to play is a big help and our depth will help on the Sat game. But who do we play and what are our chances? After the double bye , we will open up with either LaS , St. J or UMass. The 1st game will be LaS vs St. J ...The winner will take on UMass the next day. The winner of the UMass game will face The Bills. First, the St. J / LaS game....LaS overall is a C team trending at C-...St. J is a C- team trending at C+...Overall LaS is the slightly better team but St. J has been playing much better than LaS recently. This game is EVEN. The winner will face UMass a C+ team both overall and trending. UMass will be favored by about 4 .....no matter who they face.... So the most likely matchup or should I say rematch will be SLU against UMass. Because of the the consecutive day format , I won't be able to post the final spread till Fri morning ...but if we face UMass it will be The Bills by around 9 pts. Dance Chance What are our chances of getting a bid? We go into the tourney with a 45% chance of making the Big Dance...Here are the various outcomes... Chance to Dance Lose the 1st game.................................35% Win the 1st game lose the next.............52% Win the first 2 lose the next...................63% Win the tourney........................................100%...autobid Of course, the numbers , percentages and spreads are subject to change as things unfold but this is the way it looks today....which is a lot better than it looked a few days ago. MattyMo213, A10Ref, BilliKat and 14 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A10Ref Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 I love you, wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraz Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 I personally have a hard time believing we have > 50% chance to Dance if we don’t make the championship but this is why we have the Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Fraz said: I personally have a hard time believing we have > 50% chance to Dance if we don’t make the championship but this is why we have the Wiz At the start of the season, we were the best team in A-10...during most of the season we were the best team in the A-10....we are the best team in the A-10 now...that isn't me talking...that is what the numbers are showing. Finishing 4th in a conference where no team played the same amount of games or even played one another, is good enough..... Meaning, winning the conference this year is less important....which also means the seeding on the tourney is screwed up too. To finish in the top 2 , especially if the other team is the "home" team, will also be good enough. My model is very close to the net tool ....however, one thing mine is missing, is the category of subjective...which can be as high as 15%. The Net tool is much more transparent than models from previous years...BUT... there is this subjective cloud that is used for "corrective" purposes. "Corrective" usually spells doom for mid majors, however I think this year at least part of the cloud will be used to fix Covid injustices. The NCAA is looking for "deserving " teams. I think if we win 3 games, part of that cloud may float our way. Also, this is a team of momentum...3 wins would not be that difficult to turn into 4 wins just on the energy alone. You gotta Bill-ieve. If we win 3 games, we will be back to Xmas eve ...our previous peak.....and that might mean another month of Bills basketball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gister Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, The Wiz said: At the start of the season, we were the best team in A-10...during most of the season we were the best team in the A-10....we are the best team in the A-10 now...that isn't me talking...that is what the numbers are showing. Finishing 4th in a conference where no team played the same amount of games or even played one another, is good enough..... Meaning, winning the conference this year is less important....which also means the seeding on the tourney is screwed up too. To finish in the top 2 , especially if the other team is the "home" team, will also be good enough. My model is very close to the net tool ....however, one thing mine is missing, is the category of subjective...which can be as high as 15%. The Net tool is much more transparent than models from previous years...BUT... there is this subjective cloud that is used for "corrective" purposes. "Corrective" usually spells doom for mid majors, however I think this year at least part of the cloud will be used to fix Covid injustices. The NCAA is looking for "deserving " teams. I think if we win 3 games, part of that cloud may float our way. Also, this is a team of momentum...3 wins would not be that difficult to turn into 4 wins just on the energy alone. You gotta Bill-ieve. If we win 3 games, we will be back to Xmas eve ...our previous peak.....and that might mean another month of Bills basketball. If we win three games we will be an automatic qualifier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 1 minute ago, gister said: If we win three games we will be an automatic qualifier. 3 wins would not be that difficult to turn into 4 wins You know , I meant to write... turn 2 into 3 ....but I think will leave it the way I wrote it.. Beware 1st round Big Dance opponent....you are doomed.. BilliKat and MusicCityBilliken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 I honestly hope you are right in your last two posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 How do I apply to give more reactions in a day? 8:22am Eastern and I’m out of reactions?? Great analysis, TheWiz, although I think you might be shortchanging the Joeys a little. Rarely do you see a team catch lightning in a bottle the way they have since Daly’s return. I guess you have to stick to the numbers as the lightning in a bottle phenomenom is difficult to quantify, but the Joeys are the scariest team with a lousy record I’ve seen going into a post-season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, billikenbill said: How do I apply to give more reactions in a day? 8:22am Eastern and I’m out of reactions?? Great analysis, TheWiz, although I think you might be shortchanging the Joeys a little. Rarely do you see a team catch lightning in a bottle the way they have since Daly’s return. I guess you have to stick to the numbers as the lightning in a bottle phenomenom is difficult to quantify, but the Joeys are the scariest team with a lousy record I’ve seen going into a post-season. As I pointed out above, St. J has the better trend line. ...playing better recently than LaS. I think my model has evened things up by going EVEN. That is more aggressive than Vegas which is showing LaS by 2.5 pts. They are sticking more to the... LaS is the slightly better team overall....even though they haven't shown it lately. Should be a good game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 35 minutes ago, billikenbill said: How do I apply to give more reactions in a day? 8:22am Eastern and I’m out of reactions?? Great analysis, TheWiz, although I think you might be shortchanging the Joeys a little. Rarely do you see a team catch lightning in a bottle the way they have since Daly’s return. I guess you have to stick to the numbers as the lightning in a bottle phenomenom is difficult to quantify, but the Joeys are the scariest team with a lousy record I’ve seen going into a post-season. i believe if you are a donor to billikens.com you are awarded extra reactions. not sure of that, but maybe steve can weigh in. we should all be donors to the best sports messageboard in the world to keep it alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crewsorlose Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Let me update these chances: Bills lose in Quarterfinals: 0% chance to make NCAA tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 In March 1988, me and the posse got up and busted azz to hustle to Indianapolis to see the #3 seed Billikens play the #6 seed Detroit Titans in a noon game at Market Square Arena. The Titans were 5 and 22 and coming in on a seven-game losing streak. Monroe was a junior, Roland Gray was a junior, Bonner was a sophomore. Overall it was a bad year as we finished at 14 and 14 overall with arguably the three best players in SLU history to that point. Mercy was led by Guard Archie Tullos and they beat us 66 to 63. There was the possibility of Detroit being the MWC rep that year with a seven-win record but Xavier destroyed them in the title game 122 to 96 after they upset Evansville 75 to 74. That feeling sat dormant for 26 years until Bonaventure hit that last shot three at Barclays in 2014. Bonaventure was ninth in the A10 that year; we were first. It is one thing to lose but it is far more demoralizing to lose to underdogs of this nature which is what St. Joe's would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 1 hour ago, billiken_roy said: i believe if you are a donor to billikens.com you are awarded extra reactions. not sure of that, but maybe steve can weigh in. we should all be donors to the best sports messageboard in the world to keep it alive. You're right, was thinking about this last night when I saw the "donor" notations on poster's IDs. Where's the link to donate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, billikenbill said: You're right, was thinking about this last night when I saw the "donor" notations on poster's IDs. Where's the link to donate? send steve a private message and he can line you up. plus you can ask then what the reaction benefit is exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliKat Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 So, follow up question- in the profile, it says “days won” what does that mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, BilliKat said: So, follow up question- in the profile, it says “days won” what does that mean? That's the number of times the listed poster has had the most net positive reactions for the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliKat Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Gotcha. Thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 I am a donor but I still only have 3 reactions per day. I think there is a certain minimum donation that has to be met to get bonus reactions. (My donation didn’t meet the criteria) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4, 2021 Author Share Posted March 4, 2021 Next up on a trek to Friday is St. J / UMass. I have UMass over St. J by 4 as I did in the original post above..... On the surface this seems relatively easy... a 13th seed playing a 5 seed....This is borne out by the overall grade of B- ( UMass ) to C- (St.J)...again seemingly an easy pick....UNTIL we look at the trend line ...UMass again comes in as a B- team but so does St. J. What this means is that UMass is the better team but recently both teams have been playing about equal. A factor that tips the game to UMass is that St. J is missing 2 guards including Forrest who is a 2nd or 3rd guard. This issue is magnified by the fact that this is the 2nd game in 2 days for St. J. , so depth becomes a little more important. Again, on the surface this should be a relatively easy pick but St. J will make a game of it and then probably fade in the 2nd half...... but if they can stay close till the end .....it could become a coin toss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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