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Bubble Watch/Pre Selection Sunday Thread


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7 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Want to keep NCAA tournament talk in one thread if possible. What's the consensus here on the board? Need to win the A10 tournament to make the big dance or does a win today and a loss to VCU in the A10 finals get us in?

 

i would think we could get to the tourney by making the finals of the tourney assuming we lose to either vca or st bonnie's.   they will give the A10 3 spots.   they will not give 4.   so if we lose in the finals vs anyone else, we are out.   

we dont make the finals, it will officially be "Wait till next year".

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Is it even possible for the selection committee to just add extra teams into the tourney. Like go with 96 instead. Or just go to the point where they can get some certainty. This year is going to be very hard on a lot of teams.

I know the consensus would be ‘NO’, but if you think about it, it is going to be held at one site, with potentially little amount of fans, why couldn’t they add more games, on say Tuesday/Wednesday. Put them on the CBS Sports app. Do the Pacers have a game that day?

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39 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Want to keep NCAA tournament talk in one thread if possible. What's the consensus here on the board? Need to win the A10 tournament to make the big dance or does a win today and a loss to VCU in the A10 finals get us in?

 

57%

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I don't care for all this talk about getting to the final and then conceding to VCU, St. B's, or whoever. This team has the talent to take the whole enchilada just like '19. Ford's teams usually peak in late Feb early March. Granted, not so this year probably due to covid. Although, I still don't understand the UD complete meltdown. But VCU was a good game, albeit Bones did not play. Tonight's game will hopefully not be in doubt towards the end. But we need to go into Richmond with confidence and just win the whole damn thing. Otherwise, I think we're on the outside looking in. This is not the way JGood and Has wanted to go out. 

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43 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Want to keep NCAA tournament talk in one thread if possible. What's the consensus here on the board? Need to win the A10 tournament to make the big dance or does a win today and a loss to VCU in the A10 finals get us in?

 

It depends on who we beat on the way to the finals.  

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-to be Captain Obvious, the only way we control our destiny is to win the conf tourney, but also imo how many spots are available for non P6 teams is also a key, I cannot be convinced that if Mich St, Duke and IU are on the bubble with us that we get taken (and I can't believe IU being on the bubble, they are 12-12 and 7-10) 

-let's not have upsets in the other conf tourneys to take other spots as well

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i think that LSU can help us by making a splash in their tournament... If we get some help from them and go to the A10 tourney, I think we will be a toss up by the committee. I think we can get some leeway from the selection group given we definitely got hosed by covid.

Also, another clear example - Baylor first loss coming out of covid. Feel bad for them really. When they were in their groove, I thought they could beat Gonzaga by 10+ and were definitely my pick for the natty.... Now they are a sweet16 team.

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There are just not enough available slots. I see 29 of the 37 at large slots as Locks and probably 31 as Locks, adding Maryland and Rutgers from the Big Ten.

That leaves 15 teams vying for the last 6 slots. The 15 are as follows, with NET ranking:

35 Boise State, 42 Drake, 43 Colorado State, 47 Missouri, 48 Xavier, 49 Utah State, 50 SLU, 53 Seton Hall, 54 Richmond, 55 SMU, 56 Syracuse, 59 Duke, 60 Memphis, 64 Stanford, 66 Wichita State. 
 

Mizzou might be IN, but if Mizzou loses Wed. @ Florida, Mizzou would be sub-.500, 7-8 in the SEC. 

Root for Georgetown at home in DC to beat Xavier Tuesday night. Root for Dan Hurley (yuck) and his UConn team to win at Seton Hall Wed. 

Root for USC late night Wed. to win in LA over Stanford.

We could use a Drake exit ASAP from the MVC Tourney, and Loyola to win it, making The Valley Juan Bid.

I also don’t see the Committee taking 4 Mountain West teams. I know what is said re not slotting by conference, and I also don’t buy it. The Mountain West is the 12th ranked conference. 

Of course, SLU needs to hold the home court tonight vs. UMass. It may well be that SLU needs to win the A10 Tournament, which is doable. I think this SLU team is better overall than the ‘19 A10 Magnificent 7 (often 6) A10 Tourney Champions. 

 

 

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I think the thing that will keep us out of the tournament is our lack of road wins. I know people point to the recent losses @ Dayton and @ VCU as Q1/Q2 losses which is fair but the real opportunity lost with those games was that our only road win is against Fordham

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2 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Is it even possible for the selection committee to just add extra teams into the tourney. Like go with 96 instead. Or just go to the point where they can get some certainty. This year is going to be very hard on a lot of teams.

I know the consensus would be ‘NO’, but if you think about it, it is going to be held at one site, with potentially little amount of fans, why couldn’t they add more games, on say Tuesday/Wednesday. Put them on the CBS Sports app. Do the Pacers have a game that day?

They are going to name 4 extra teams, i.e. the first four out.  If one of the selected teams can't go, then the first out gets the nod.  Second one can't go, then the second one out gets the nod. There are separate policies for when a team is forced to withdraw: one for before the announcement of the championship field and one for after the release of the bracket. Replacement teams will only be introduced into the championship within 48 hours after the announcement of the field, and at no time thereafter.  Teams that can't go after that deadline will forfeit their game.

 

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14 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

i think that LSU can help us by making a splash in their tournament... If we get some help from them and go to the A10 tourney, I think we will be a toss up by the committee. I think we can get some leeway from the selection group given we definitely got hosed by covid.

Also, another clear example - Baylor first loss coming out of covid. Feel bad for them really. When they were in their groove, I thought they could beat Gonzaga by 10+ and were definitely my pick for the natty.... Now they are a sweet16 team.

I've watched a lot LSU this season because I have a rooting interest snice SLU beat them.  Their defense can be truly terrible sometimes.  There are multiple times a game when it just totally breaks down at the opposing team gets wide open layups / dunks in the half court.  They have as much offensive talent as anyone east of Gonzaga, but their D stinks.  I hope they can make a splash, but I'm not optimistic.  We really just need them to climb inside the top 30 NET somehow to make that a Q1 win instead of Q2.  Totally stupid that it will make that big of a difference if they finish 30 versus 31, but that could be what gets us in or keeps us out of the tournament.

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With so many disappointing conference losses it is time for SLU to get it done by winning out.

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I think we can get in even if we lose in the finals, as long as we beat UMass and then beat VCU or the Bonnies in the semis.  Lunardi pretty much said exactly this during the Richmond broadcast.  Lunardi isn't exactly the guy who has us rated the highest.  Jerry Palm has always ranked us higher in his bracketology.  So, if Lunardi thinks so, and he has us ranked lower than others, then I'm thinking its true.

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1 hour ago, slufan13 said:

I think the thing that will keep us out of the tournament is our lack of road wins. I know people point to the recent losses @ Dayton and @ VCU as Q1/Q2 losses which is fair but the real opportunity lost with those games was that our only road win is against Fordham

The pundits always seem to look for something to hold against Non Power 5’s, and in SLU’s case it is not beating anybody good on the road. Of course, SLU only played 5 road games, with its sole road win being over Fordham.

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

57%

That’s too close for my heart.  I would go into cardiac arrest halfway through the show.

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1 hour ago, Brighton said:

Ya'll need to stop this.

Ah, na, too much fun kicking it around. Let's say we beat UMass, win the 5-12, the 4/5 over Richmond, and knock off the Bonnies. Then, Davidson and us agree to a Tues/Wed. game at Davidson. That high school gym of theirs has been a house of horrors but knocking off the Cats might make things a little interesting. Win that and then lose in the finals. Are we in then? Since it's been mentioned that SLU might be looking for a mid-week game next week, wonder if they still want to do it and who would agree to play.

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