Path to NCAA Tourney

[kshoe]

1 hour ago, Box and Won said:

Just FYI, should the Bills wind up on the outside looking in, @slufanskipand I have a plan in place to infect any teams that are ahead of us.  I'm not going to go into details, but it involves monkeys.  I hope there aren't too many teams ahead of us, because we only have access to a limited number of monkeys.

Surely you have at least 12 monkeys available. Bruce Willis and Brad Pitt would approve of your plan.

[billikenbill]

Edit: Someone beat me to the bats mention.

[juniorbill76]

[jonny karate]

Tell me about this alternate option. If a 1 seed gets covid. Does reseeding occur?

[BillsBeliever!!!]

19 minutes ago, jonny karate said:

Tell me about this alternate option. If a 1 seed gets covid. Does reseeding occur?

Yes. Theoretically, if we are the first team out and Gonzaga was unable to play due to COVID, we would become the number one overall seed in the tournament 

[RUBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, jonny karate said:

Tell me about this alternate option. If a 1 seed gets covid. Does reseeding occur?

They will not re-seed.  As @BillsBeliever!!! said, if Gonzaga is the #1 overall seed & they drop out due to COVID, then the first team OUT ends up as the #1 overall seed.

You could probably do some statistical analysis to determine that being the 1s team OUT may actually be better than being the last team IN.  If there are strong enough odds that at least one team in the field of 68 gets bounced because of COVID, you have good odds of getting a better seed as the 1st team OUT.

[slufanskip]

3 hours ago, Box and Won said:

Just FYI, should the Bills wind up on the outside looking in, @slufanskipand I have a plan in place to infect any teams that are ahead of us.  I'm not going to go into details, but it involves monkeys.  I hope there aren't too many teams ahead of us, because we only have access to a limited number of monkeys.

and please don't tell anyone. Just keep it to the people on this board. Our plan isn't exactly legal

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, billikenbill said:

Edit: Someone beat me to the bats mention.

We delegate anything that needs the use of bats to Vinny and Vito

[cgeldmacher]

10 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

They will not re-seed.  As @BillsBeliever!!! said, if Gonzaga is the #1 overall seed & they drop out due to COVID, then the first team OUT ends up as the #1 overall seed.

You could probably do some statistical analysis to determine that being the 1s team OUT may actually be better than being the last team IN.  If there are strong enough odds that at least one team in the field of 68 gets bounced because of COVID, you have good odds of getting a better seed as the 1st team OUT.

So you are saying that something as simple as COVID spreading monkeys could be the key to our first #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Interesting.

[slufanskip]

Just now, cgeldmacher said:

So you are saying that something as simple as COVID spreading monkeys could be the key to our first #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Interesting.

Yes

[RUBillsFan]

Bubble games tonight

ROOTING INTEREST IN CAPS
(KenPom odds of favorable SLU result)

6pm CT - FRESNO ST (9%) @ Boise St*

6pm CT - Xavier @ GEORGETOWN (43%)*

7pm CT - Indiana @ MICHIGAN STATE (49%) - this is a bit of a toss up because both are on the bubble / ahead of SLU.  I think Indiana is lower though so we want a blowout win for MSU probably.  A blowout win one way or the other is best.

7pm CT - Duke @ GEORGIA TECH (60%) - same with both teams on the bubble near / ahead of SLU.  Duke lower so blowout GA Tech win is preferable.

7:30pm CT - Vanderbilt @ LSU (82%)* - LSU is kind on the bubble / ahead of SLU, but since LSU played them we want them to win big regardless.

8pm CT - Memphis @ SOUTH FLORIDA (24%)

8pm CT - KENTUCKY (44%) @ Ole Miss - again kind of a toss up, both teams on the outer edge of the bubble, but likely below SLU.  We want a close game.  I don't think Kentucky makes NCAAs with a losing record overall, so them winning is better.

I put a * next to the games that I think would be most important for SLU's at-large hopes.

 

 

[Pistol]

Indiana is 57 in the NET, MSU 77, but records and momentum are another story. IU is 12-12, MSU 13-10. Indiana has lost 3 straight, MSU has won 3 of 4. Both are 7-10 in conference. I still think I'd take the lower NET team to win, but this isn't an easy one because MSU winning 4/5 and having a shot at a .500 conference season isn't ideal.

Xavier is 50th and Georgetown is 96th. Georgetown had a disastrous start to Big East play and has been respectable since their long COVID shutdown, though. It's also senior night there. It could happen.

Duke, Memphis, Kentucky, and Ole Miss are all in the 58-65 range. LSU and GT are ahead of us (GT by two spots), but I think we pretty clearly want to get rid of any upward pressure from lower teams, so LSU, GT, and South Florida are easy rooting calls for us.

Ole Miss-UK is a tougher call but I think you're right. An Ole Miss win puts them over .500 in conference and all but ends UK's season. A UK win puts Ole Miss under .500 and looking out, and they'd have to strain to make an argument for UK that would enrage literally everyone who isn't a UK fan.

[RUBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Indiana is 57 in the NET, MSU 77, but records and momentum are another story. IU is 12-12, MSU 13-10. Indiana has lost 3 straight, MSU has won 3 of 4. Both are 7-10 in conference. I still think I'd take the lower NET team to win, but this isn't an easy one because MSU winning 4/5 and having a shot at a .500 conference season isn't ideal.

Xavier is 50th and Georgetown is 96th. Georgetown had a disastrous start to Big East play and has been respectable since their long COVID shutdown, though. It's also senior night there. It could happen.

Duke, Memphis, Kentucky, and Ole Miss are all in the 58-65 range. LSU and GT are ahead of us (GT by two spots), but I think we pretty clearly want to get rid of any upward pressure from lower teams, so LSU, GT, and South Florida are easy rooting calls for us.

Ole Miss-UK is a tougher call but I think you're right. An Ole Miss win puts them over .500 in conference and all but ends UK's season. A UK win puts Ole Miss under .500 and looking out, and they'd have to strain to make an argument for UK that would enrage literally everyone who isn't a UK fan.

FYI I was basing where teams are on the bubble & the bubble in general on http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ which may / may not sync up with the NET.  That site, for example, shows MSU as the first team out and Indiana as the 3rd team out.

[kshoe]

49 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

They will not re-seed.  As @BillsBeliever!!! said, if Gonzaga is the #1 overall seed & they drop out due to COVID, then the first team OUT ends up as the #1 overall seed.

You could probably do some statistical analysis to determine that being the 1s team OUT may actually be better than being the last team IN.  If there are strong enough odds that at least one team in the field of 68 gets bounced because of COVID, you have good odds of getting a better seed as the 1st team OUT.

COVID numbers are down all over the board, but the number of cancellations of games are down even more it seems. Without much fanfare, I think a lot of schools have taken more of an NFL approach to contact tracing (just isolate the affected individual but keep the rest of the team playing) than they were earlier in the season when a single positive anywhere near the program meant automatic 2 week shutdowns. Maybe I'm just a cynic, but I doubt any teams will be unable to play in the NCAA tourney due to COVID unless they have a significant outbreak. There is a lot of grey area in the contact tracing rules and when the games become more meaningful the tracing interpretations change a bit... 

[slu72]

3 minutes ago, kshoe said:

COVID numbers are down all over the board, but the number of cancellations of games are down even more it seems. Without much fanfare, I think a lot of schools have taken more of an NFL approach to contact tracing (just isolate the affected individual but keep the rest of the team playing) than they were earlier in the season when a single positive anywhere near the program meant automatic 2 week shutdowns. Maybe I'm just a cynic, but I doubt any teams will be unable to play in the NCAA tourney due to COVID unless they have a significant outbreak. There is a lot of grey area in the contact tracing rules and when the games become more meaningful the tracing interpretations change a bit... 

Speaking of this, is Strickland on Covid protocol? Does that mean he wasn't one of the players infected during our isolation? I've read/heard that once you get it you're supposed to be immune for awhile. Although not sure how long awhile is. And today I got my second shot proving once again age comes before beauty. 

[billiken_roy]

i got my first shot saturday.   2.5 hours in line.   

[RUBillsFan]

 

2 minutes ago, kshoe said:

COVID numbers are down all over the board, but the number of cancellations of games are down even more it seems. Without much fanfare, I think a lot of schools have taken more of an NFL approach to contact tracing (just isolate the affected individual but keep the rest of the team playing) than they were earlier in the season when a single positive anywhere near the program meant automatic 2 week shutdowns. Maybe I'm just a cynic, but I doubt any teams will be unable to play in the NCAA tourney due to COVID unless they have a significant outbreak. There is a lot of grey area in the contact tracing rules and when the games become more meaningful the tracing interpretations change a bit... 

 Agreed, 2 months ago I would have guessed multiple teams would have missed NCAAs due to COVID given all the regular season postponements.  Now I kind of doubt it happens, but I still think with 68 teams there is a possibility. 

I am wondering if NCAA will have stricter rules / more testing in place for the initial entry into the tournament than teams & conferences have had.  IMO it is much better for PR for the NCAA to drop a team from the bracket before the tournament starts than after it has begun. 

Nearly all of the teams going into the tournament will have likely had a lot more recent exposure risk than during the regular season.  They'll have played multiple teams over a short period of time & traveled for their conference tournament and then to will have traveled to Indy...not to mention the COVID spreading monkeys that @Box and Won will unleash upon them.

[wgstl]

52 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

730pm CT - Vanderbilt @ LSU (82%)* - LSU is kind on the bubble / ahead of SLU, but since LSU played them we want them to win big regardless.

It'll be interesting to see is anyone pulls for mizzou against Florida tomorrow.  Need Mizzou to win so if LSU beats them LSU should stay as a Q1 for us. 

[slubilliken09]

1 hour ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Yes. Theoretically, if we are the first team out and Gonzaga was unable to play due to COVID, we would become the number one overall seed in the tournament 

Underrated comment

[Compton]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an epic snub of Drake (24-3), for the simple reason that they haven't beaten anyone other than Loyola-Chi at home by 1 point a day after losing to them at home by 27 points. 

That could bump us up one key spot in many bracketologists' eyes. 

 

 

[almaman]

19 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i got my first shot saturday.   2.5 hours in line.   

H S! in a car line? u have reservations?

[billiken_roy]

yep   and i got there 45 minutes early as well.   the belleville fairgrounds are averaging over 6,000 shots a day i believe i read.   i swear i was in a line at disney world only sitting in a car.   just kept going up 50 feet, turning right going 50 feet turning left going 50 feet.........

when i got to the national guard guys there was no messing around.  they did their jobs well and when i got to shot row (was like pulling into pitstop alley at the indy 500) i got my shot and was out of there in less than a minute.   they just got too many people showing up/invited.   

[Littlebill]

23 minutes ago, Compton said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see an epic snub of Drake (24-3), for the simple reason that they haven't beaten anyone other than Loyola-Chi at home by 1 point a day after losing to them at home by 27 points. 

That could bump us up one key spot in many bracketologists' eyes. 

 

 

Drake has no business being even on the bubble

[RUBillsFan]

34 minutes ago, wgstl said:

It'll be interesting to see is anyone pulls for mizzou against Florida tomorrow.  Need Mizzou to win so if LSU beats them LSU should stay as a Q1 for us. 

I think LSU can stay Q1 by beating Vandy by a good margin & beating Mizzou regardless of what Mizzou does against Florida.  LSU would also then need a W or 2 in the SEC tournament to solidify that Q1 status.

Therefore, we can all safely root for Mizzou to lose to Florida, lose to LSU, lose their 1st round SEC game and fall out of the NCAA tournament altogether after what would be 7 losses in their last 8 games.

[wgstl]

10 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I think LSU can stay Q1 by beating Vandy by a good margin & beating Mizzou regardless of what Mizzou does against Florida.  LSU would also then need a W or 2 in the SEC tournament to solidify that Q1 status.

Therefore, we can all safely root for Mizzou to lose to Florida, lose to LSU, lose their 1st round SEC game and fall out of the NCAA tournament altogether after what would be 7 losses in their last 8 games.

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