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Path to NCAA Tourney


Crewsorlose

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53 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I think we are stuck in place.
Our fate is out of our hands.

I understand and appreciate all the arguments and positions that are contra to mine.  In fact, I welcome reading them.  We are Billikens.  We are unique, we are outstanding, and we are intelligent.

I think the risks outweigh the benefits of playing this extra game, on short notice, on the road, which is where it will have to be.  If we could get away with playing this extra game at home, then my position probably would be different, depending upon the opponent.  But a home court game is not going to move the needle, is it?  What is held against SLU is the lack of road wins.  But a lot of these bid competitors are eliminating themselves (hopefully) by losing.  Why?  Because they were never that good at the outset of this prelude to March Madness.

I can't fathom this SLU team flying 3+ hours to Boise, Idaho, on short notice, at this point.

What if MW conference opponents want that quad 1 net win and say hey we’ll come play you! Do you say no? I wouldn’t if I were SLU and I could get a QUAD 1 home win.

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3 minutes ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

I feel like this Mountain west conference is a big ruse. Watching these games who could say they are in? Almost unwatchable

I think the committee is much smarter than the bracketologists and they agree with you... two bid conference. 

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47 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I think we are stuck in place.
Our fate is out of our hands.

...

What is held against SLU is the lack of road wins. 

Sure SLU lacks road wins, but that's partly because most of the road games got cancelled.

Remember last summer when our schedule had us playing in the Orlando Invitational from Nov. 26 to 29 with a field that included Gonzaga, Michigan State and Auburn? It's not SLU's fault those games were cancelled.

The out-of-conference schedule that got cobbled together had just one road game.

Instead of nine conference road games, we ended up with only four (LaSalle, Dayton, Fordham, VCU).

At VCU, we were tied with five seconds to go, and we had the ball, about to cross midcourt, when a delayed mystery-whistle time-travelled back to a "foul" before the previous shot. 

During the A10 tournament, we were 1-1. (Plus SLU ended up having to play at two venues.)

Here's the point: In response to the tendency to hold it against SLU for a lack of road wins, let's point out that the shuffled schedule gave us only five road games total before the tournament, plus two in the tournament.  In a year of constantly shuffling schedules, we need to examine why SLU's schedule didn't produce more road wins.  SLU planned a schedule that would have had us playing a lot more road games, including quite a few against very good teams, but Covid changed the schedule.

 

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35 minutes ago, Minerva N. Owl said:

Sure SLU lacks road wins, but that's partly because most of the road games got cancelled.

Remember last summer when our schedule had us playing in the Orlando Invitational from Nov. 26 to 29 with a field that included Gonzaga, Michigan State and Auburn? It's not SLU's fault those games were cancelled.

The out-of-conference schedule that got cobbled together had just one road game.

Instead of nine conference road games, we ended up with only four (LaSalle, Dayton, Fordham, VCU).

At VCU, we were tied with five seconds to go, and we had the ball, about to cross midcourt, when a delayed mystery-whistle time-travelled back to a "foul" before the previous shot. 

During the A10 tournament, we were 1-1. (Plus SLU ended up having to play at two venues.)

Here's the point: In response to the tendency to hold it against SLU for a lack of road wins, let's point out that the shuffled schedule gave us only five road games total before the tournament, plus two in the tournament.  In a year of constantly shuffling schedules, we need to examine why SLU's schedule didn't produce more road wins.  SLU planned a schedule that would have had us playing a lot more road games, including quite a few against very good teams, but Covid changed the schedule.

 

Excellent post, and I agree and know this. It’s Jerry Palm of CBS that keeps hammering SLU re the road wins issues like it’s some auricle bellowing down from the mountaintop. Of course, there’s a valid explanation. 
 

The question is if there is anyone lobbying for SLU in that conference room in Indiana behind closed doors. Is there anyone providing this legitimate explanation to debunk the narrative?

If SLU gets hosed, Ted “TV” Valentine in his striped shirt played a prominent role. That call was a flat out travesty. I like your description of time traveled. Perhaps George Noory should have Valentine as a guest some night.

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1 hour ago, Lando Griffin said:

What if MW conference opponents want that quad 1 net win and say hey we’ll come play you! Do you say no? I wouldn’t if I were SLU and I could get a QUAD 1 home win.

Quad Win 1 Home is 1-30. So the only Mountain West team that would qualify are the San Diego State Aztecs, and they’re still playing. Plus, San Diego State is IN, would have no need to play.

If we could find a neutral court to play Boise State, then Quad 1 Neutral is 1-50. We’d want the Broncos flown to the Midwest, play it in Quincy, in Illinois, neutral court ...

Boise State might fall out of the Top 50 after losing today to Nevada. 

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Longtime lurker, first time poster. Using the latest Lunardi projections, here is the recipe to get in - and I don't foresee any other scenario being possible assuming Colorado State beats Fresno State tonight AND SLU doesn't play another game.

 

Current Lunardi Last Four In - Drake, Colorado St, Syracuse, Utah State

First Four Out - Ole Miss, SLU, Boise St, Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Xavier, Memphis, SMU, St. John's

 

I think Drake and Syracuse are in the First Four. A third spot will be taken by the winner of tomorrow's Colorado State/Utah State game. I don't think the Mountain West gets a third bid to the Big Dance.

 

Ole Miss absolutely HAS to lose to LSU tomorrow. I think SLU would pass Ole Miss in this scenario - especially with SLU having beaten LSU earlier this season. If Ole Miss wins tomorrow, SLU is done.

 

Seton Hall plays Georgetown tomorrow. That is not a good enough win to jump SLU in my opinion. I think Seton Hall has to win the Big East Tournament to get in.

 

I think Memphis and SMU have to either win their conference tournament OR beat Houston to get in.

 

If all that works out and there are no other bid stealers like Nevada or Georgetown, I think SLU is the fourth team in the First Four.

 

That's a lot that has to go right, but none of it is unrealistic.

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Assuming Colorado St holds on, we want them to beat Utah State tomorrow. Also need Ole Miss to lose to LSU, preferably a blowout. And then Seton Hall and SMU cannot win their league, also Memphis cannot beat Houston in the semis. 
 

Even if that happens I still think it’s 50/50 that we get in. If any of that doesn’t happen, or there is a bid stealers, 99% we’ll be out

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Bubble Games Tomorrow:

2:00- SMU vs Cincinnati 

5:00- Seton Hall vs Georgetown

8:30- Ole Miss vs LSU

9:00- Memphis vs UCF

11:00- Utah St vs Colorado St

—> Need the bolded teams to lose. 
 

Bid-Stealer Watch:

American: Need Houston or Wich St to win

Big East: Need UConn or Creighton to win

Mt West: Need SDSU or Colorado St to win

PAC 12: Need Oregon, USC, or Col to win 

SEC: Need anyone but the Mississippi schools to win

 

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We wouldn’t be having this debate, and in SLU itself’s case, the decision, about playing an extra game, nor would we be glued to watching the Mountain West Tournament, et al., had the Atlantic 10 Conference, in its infinite wisdom, not moved its Men’s Basketball Tournament up a week. 
 

We wouldn’t be having this type of week. We would be watching the Billikens play in the A-10 Quarterfinals this Friday, not last Friday.

That was a poor, pandemic caused, panic driven move. No other big (second weekend) conference followed suit. The A10 inserted itself into mid-major, low con weekend. In so doing the A10 excised two possible games from its members’ schedules.

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