The Bills over Rich by 5

[The Wiz]

The VCU game was as close to even as you can be....not just the score but most of the stats were very close....even when we dominated on the boards,  our TOs canceled that stat out.  If we had got 1 more anything (1 more reb...1 more VCU TO...1 more basket ...1 more possession ..etc) we win.  Truly a game of inches.  But the basketball gods didn't smile on us.  So is all lost......No...there is still 1 last door that can open to the good  scenario (top 4 finish) We need to win our next 2 games ...assuming we do that...then Dav needs to lose their next 2 ...starting with a loss today against St. B  (I have Dav by 1 ...but pretty much a toss up.) ...Dav next game is against VCU.   Also, Day needs to lose 1 of their last 2 away games. (St. J & St. B )  So there is a chance....If  Dav wins 1 of its last 2 or Day wins both games,...it means we will have to play an extra game in the Tourney. If we are able to reach the Championship game that might be enough to get us a bid.

Which brings us to the next game ...Richmond.... We go into this game still clinging to an A- and a last 4 in position for a Dance bid.  The game last night turned out pretty much the way it was supposed to ...a close game between 2 pretty good teams.  But time is starting to run out...it will not be an easy path.  In addition to the A- overall grade , we are trending at B.   Meanwhile, Rich comes in with a B+ overall and trending grade. What that means is ...we are the better team...they have been playing better as of late.

 

 

.............................SLU.................................Rich...............................SLU.....................................Rich

.............................................OFF...............................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................B+.....................................B+................................A-........................................C+

FG%.........................B+.....................................A.................................B+.........................................F+

3Pt%........................C.......................................B..................................C+........................................B+

FT%.........................C-....... ..............................B..................................................................................

Reb.........................A-.....................................F-...16th WITN..............A............................................D+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense...none ..........Defense .......Reb

Down...Offense...PPG...FG%....3P%....FT%......Defense......FG%

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins...14th ...dn

Rebs...Goodwin....12th....up

Stls......Goodwin...64th....dn

Double Double....Goodwin...4th ....up

Rich

Assts... Gilyard...41st

Stls......Gilyard.....1st ITN

Injury

Crabtree....12/30/20.....Fractured rt foot ...out till late March.

Report card summary....

Our offensive numbers continue to slip....Defense is holding steady....Rebounding continues strong....Rich has a good offense better than ours BUT they don't rebound.   a so so defense that is strong at the arc....we want to get inside on them. As you can see,  Gilyard leads the nation in steals. Overall, Rich doesn't TO the ball over and forces a lot of opp TOs. 

WWN2D2W.... Rich has a good starting 5....there is no depth ...not much behind those 5....we need to use our depth to either wear them down or get them in foul trouble. When they make substitutions , that is when we need to open up the game margin.  Hold the top 3 to 35 pts combined.  Keep Rich to under 75pts. We need to match their TO output. A wide margin here will spell doom again...Protect the ball.  Dominate the boards...we could do a double digit margin. Make some shots...48/37/ 72...most important will be the 2 pt shots which will show up in the FG% ...the 48%.

Bottomline.... Another must win game. We don't need a great game to win...we just need to do what the Bills normally do...and avoid mistakes... Protect the ball and wear them down .......and we win.

[A10Ref]

glass half-full.. Stars are aligning for a run. Has played his best game last night, and now it is time for everyone else to click. Even if we don't get the double bye (which we have to win out and have some luck with Davidson losing), we can win 3 games in 3 days then take a week off for the big one. First, we have to win Friday! Hope everything comes together for the first time this season.

[JettFlight5]

Plan on playing the extra game. The Bonnies aren't beating anyone. 

[billikenbill]

Not buying it. Nathan Cayo is lying in wait ready to KO us. He is so sneaky good. They’ll throw in threes, we’ll miss them, our seniors will continue to commit dumb fouls, and the Spiders seal our fate. What a disappointing year, especially one that showed such promise.

[HoosierPal]

11 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

glass half-full.. Stars are aligning for a run. Has played his best game last night, and now it is time for everyone else to click. Even if we don't get the double bye (which we have to win out and have some luck with Davidson losing), we can win 3 games in 3 days then take a week off for the big one. First, we have to win Friday! Hope everything comes together for the first time this season.

The standings are pretty screwy, aren't they. Davidson still could win the league title by winning their remaining two home games, VCU and St. B.  Their St. B game tips off in a couple of hours.  Tough for the Wildcats but doable.

And we still have to climb over Dayton to get into the top 4.  They have 2 road games, St. Joe and St. B.  They win one and we can't catch them.

[wgstl]

27 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

glass half-full.. Stars are aligning for a run. Has played his best game last night, and now it is time for everyone else to click. Even if we don't get the double bye (which we have to win out and have some luck with Davidson losing), we can win 3 games in 3 days then take a week off for the big one. First, we have to win Friday! Hope everything comes together for the first time this season.

I was hoping to see at least small positive trend, no as of now I cant.

First two games back      46% FG, 22% 3pt

next 3 games(W all 3)     40%FG, 33% 3pt

Last 3 games                   40.5%FG, 28% 3pt

 

I know anything can happen in a tournament, but I'll have little hope if we don't see an increase in FG and 3pt after Richmond and Umass. 

[A10Ref]

47 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

The standings are pretty screwy, aren't they. Davidson still could win the league title by winning their remaining two home games, VCU and St. B.  Their St. B game tips off in a couple of hours.  Tough for the Wildcats but doable.

And we still have to climb over Dayton to get into the top 4.  They have 2 road games, St. Joe and St. B.  They win one and we can't catch them.

it is so screwy... Good thing is the double bye isn't as big this year imo. It is definitely helpful, but 3 games in 3 days isn't super daunting.

[BilliesBy40]

3 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

it is so screwy... Good thing is the double bye isn't as big this year imo. It is definitely helpful, but 3 games in 3 days isn't super daunting.

This is a good point I didn’t consider.

[A10Ref]

16 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

This is a good point I didn’t consider.

Call me crazy, but maybe playing someone as a warmup game would be nice. Our team has been very hot and very cold this year... So long as we dont lay an egg, lol could easily happen, a first game against a bottom-feeder for us to get confidence before a game against the top 4. 

Regardless of seeding, we need the whole team clicking, and we need it fast aka Friday.

[A10Ref]

well bonnies beat davidson

[The Wiz]

As bad as yesterday's loss was...today was a good day for The Bills.    St. Joe crushed   Dayton 97-84 and The Bonnies beat Dav 56 -53....Both Day and Dav were favored to win.  The ball is back in the Bills court....A win by the Bills over Rich on Fri and a loss by Dav on Sat to VCU sets up a showdown on Mon with UMass ....If we win the UMass game....we finish top 4.

It ain't over till it's over....Yogi

Go Bills

[HoosierPal]

 

[Major Majerus]

They’re falling into our trap - “please don’t throw me into that briar patch”

[Taj79]

Hasn't the Wiz had us favored in every game since we came back?  And we're what ..... 2 and 4 in that time.  The trend seems to be give the points here.  If we can't defend the three tonight, kiss it goodbye.

[jonny karate]

How does french matchup look in this game? He almost seemed to score at will against vcu

[BilliesBy40]

16 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Hasn't the Wiz had us favored in every game since we came back?  And we're what ..... 2 and 4 in that time.  The trend seems to be give the points here.  If we can't defend the three tonight, kiss it goodbye.

If betting trends worked Vegas wouldn’t exist.

[NH]

42 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Hasn't the Wiz had us favored in every game since we came back?  And we're what ..... 2 and 4 in that time.  The trend seems to be give the points here.  If we can't defend the three tonight, kiss it goodbye.

We're 4-4 in that time, not 2-4. We're 3-5 against the spread in that time (covers against St. Bona, Fordham and La Salle). URI covered on a last second garbage 3 by Fatts Russell and La Salle also covered in garbage time. I wouldn't recommend any friend bet on SLU right now but I also don't think there's really a trend as you suggest.   

[Taj79]

We came back from COVID, then lost to Dayton, La Salle, Dayton again and now VCU.  We beat the Bonnies, Fordham, Rhode Island  and La Salle so my bad.  We are 4 and 4.  I really wasn't factoring in any spread, Wiz-related or Vegas-related, just results.  Forgot about Fordham and Rhodey because that seems light years ago.

[wgstl]

Last night during the State OSU game Jay bilas mentioned the possibility of the NCAA committee looking past how teams play in their first or second game back after a pause 20+ days.  That would be huge to almost get a pass on even if it was just one of UD or Lasalle. 

[juniorbill76]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Last night during the State OSU game Jay bilas mentioned the possibility of the NCAA committee looking past how teams play in their first or second game back after a pause 20+ days.  That would be huge to almost get a pass on even if it was just one of UD or Lasalle. 

Call it the Billikens Exception.

[dlarry]

 

Bills by 5 I’ll take that.

In fact I’ll go a step further....I say Bills by 13+.

I think they blow them away.

No gloom and doom here!!!

Go Bills.

[brianstl]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Last night during the State OSU game Jay bilas mentioned the possibility of the NCAA committee looking past how teams play in their first or second game back after a pause 20+ days.  That would be huge to almost get a pass on even if it was just one of UD or Lasalle. 

That why I pointed out in another thread when someone tried to claim those two losses are what killed our at large chances, that no it was the last two losses that killed our at large chances.

[BilliesBy40]

9 minutes ago, brianstl said:

That why I pointed out in another thread when someone tried to claim those two losses are what killed our at large chances, that no it was the last two losses that killed our at large chances.

But your argument is weakened if the prior two games don’t negatively impact us. In other words, our last two losses wouldn’t have been nearly as devastating without the initial Dayton and La Salle losses.

[Littlebill]

11 minutes ago, brianstl said:

That why I pointed out in another thread when someone tried to claim those two losses are what killed our at large chances, that no it was the last two losses that killed our at large chances.

so a Q1 and a Q2 loss, independent of the post covid L's, killed our resume? come on

[billiken_roy]

46 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said:

Call it the Billikens Exception.

bilas doesnt even know the billikens exist or at least doesnt take them serious.   he is talking about P5 teams that lost a game or two when coming back from breaks not us.   bilas is sickening.  cant think of a high profile sports announcer i hate more.   arrogant pr!ck.