The Wiz's Post "Covid Rust" Forecast.

[The Wiz]

I was going to include this info as part of the LaS spread thread but decided it would make that post too long plus this deserved its own thread.

For those who have been following the "rust " charts in the last few weeks...those culminated last night with the win over Fham.  I feel comfortable at this point in saying we are back.

We Are Back

What does this mean?  Does this mean we are where we were just before Covid hit.  No it means , based on the numbers we should be free of the effects of Covid going forward.  Let's use this analogy...Suppose you are a 1 mile runner.  When you start your training  you are at a 6 minute mile. Your goal is to try and do a 4 minute mile. After a couple of  months of training plus a few track meets you are down to 5 min. Things are looking pretty good and then you go down with Covid for a month.  When you come back after Covid  your 1st run is 8 min...not good. You are  clear of disease but not feeling like your old self .  The first week back you lose to some weaker runners but continue to come back. After 3 weeks, you feel like your old self and you come in at a 5:30  mile...not where  you were when the Covid hit you but better than the start of the season.  The downgrade in performance  at this point is no longer the lingering effects of Covid but more a factor of getting into championship mode. 

That is where the Bills are today....The win over Fham signaled the end of the Covid rust phase. We are not back to opening day....but neither are we back to Xmas  eve...the day after our last prepause game...KC..  According to my calculations,  we are now at the equivalent of Dec 9th after the Cen Ark game ...We were 6-0...2 weeks into the season and reached an A- level.  We are at A- now.

What Happened After The Pause.

First,  let's look at my preconference forecast dated 1/24/21.  In that thread , I examined what kind of damage Covid had caused the team. It would be based on that first game back with Dayton.  Based on the numbers, it looked to me like we had suffered medium damage and it would take us 5 games to recover.  I then monitored it from game to game.  The 5 games wasn't set in stone...it was a forecast based on a projected recovery. As it turns out , it was on target. We checked off the boxes as went and yesterday's game with Fham was the 5th game ...and ....we are back.

What Does This Mean Going Forward

Does this mean we can't  lose going forward? No, it means if we lose going forward , you will have to find something other than Covid to blame it on.  I look at yesterday's game at Fham as the start of the new season. An easy opener against a bottom feeder. (D-  team) The game against LaS  will be more difficult.  And games will continue to ramp up through the Rich game.  While this is not what we planned for....this is setting up nicely going forward.

 I think we can get back to being an A team as soon as the next 2 games. And then we need to try and reach our potential ...which is an A+ team.  Can we do it?  I think so as long as stay  healthy and relatively injury free. One thing to watch and keep track of will be the spreads....we want at a minimum  to keep making or best case exceeding the spread.  If we do that , we will be on our way.

Stay tuned for the LaS spread thread coming later today...it will be a doozie.

Go Bills.

 

[Fraz]

51 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I was going to include this info as part of the LaS spread thread but decided it would make that post too long plus this deserved its own thread.

For those who have been following the "rust " charts in the last few weeks...those culminated last night with the win over Fham.  I feel comfortable at this point in saying we are back.

We Are Back

What does this mean?  Does this mean we are where we were just before Covid hit.  No it means , based on the numbers we should be free of the effects of Covid going forward.  Let's use this analogy...Suppose you are a 1 mile runner.  When you start your training  you are at a 6 minute mile. Your goal is to try and do a 4 minute mile. After a couple of  months of training plus a few track meets you are down to 5 min. Things are looking pretty good and then you go down with Covid for a month.  When you come back after Covid  your 1st run is 8 min...not good. You are  clear of disease but not feeling like your old self .  The first week back you lose to some weaker runners but continue to come back. After 3 weeks, you feel like your old self and you come in at a 5:30  mile...not where  you were when the Covid hit you but better than the start of the season.  The downgrade in performance  at this point is no longer the lingering effects of Covid but more a factor of getting into championship mode. 

That is where the Bills are today....The win over Fham signaled the end of the Covid rust phase. We are not back to opening day....but neither are we back to Xmas  eve...the day after our last prepause game...KC..  According to my calculations,  we are now at the equivalent of Dec 9th after the Cen Ark game ...We were 6-0...2 weeks into the season and reached an A- level.  We are at A- now.

What Happened After The Pause.

First,  let's look at my preconference forecast dated 1/24/21.  In that thread , I examined what kind of damage Covid had caused the team. It would be based on that first game back with Dayton.  Based on the numbers, it looked to me like we had suffered medium damage and it would take us 5 games to recover.  I then monitored it from game to game.  The 5 games wasn't set in stone...it was a forecast based on a projected recovery. As it turns out , it was on target. We checked off the boxes as went and yesterday's game with Fham was the 5th game ...and ....we are back.

What Does This Mean Going Forward

Does this mean we can't  lose going forward? No, it means if we lose going forward , you will have to find something other than Covid to blame it on.  I look at yesterday's game at Fham as the start of the new season. An easy opener against a bottom feeder. (D-  team) The game against LaS  will be more difficult.  And games will continue to ramp up through the Rich game.  While this is not what we planned for....this is setting up nicely going forward.

 I think we can get back to being an A team as soon as the next 2 games. And then we need to try and reach our potential ...which is an A+ team.  Can we do it?  I think so as long as stay  healthy and relatively injury free. One thing to watch and keep track of will be the spreads....we want at a minimum  to keep making or best case exceeding the spread.  If we do that , we will be on our way.

Stay tuned for the LaS spread thread coming later today...it will be a doozie.

Go Bills.

 

Thanks for this Wiz.  Like most of the board I’ve followed your forecasts for years, and even more so this year with Covid.

We are the best team in this conference.  With the Covid rust gone I love our chances of making a run.

[Cowboy]

-thanks Wiz, just win the games

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Fraz said:

Thanks for this Wiz.  Like most of the board I’ve followed your forecasts for years, and even more so this year with Covid.

We are the best team in this conference.  With the Covid rust gone I love our chances of making a run.

Thanks...

We are the best team in the conference.   Our defense is the best it has been all year.....I would say the only issue going forward is..... can we ramp up fast enough in the next 5-9 days to beat Dayton and VCU?....more specifically getting our shooting numbers back to where they were...49 /39/ 73.... LaS will be a good game to start to boost those numbers in preparation for the 2 away games..... Day & VCU

[billikenbill]

Great job, TheWiz, really appreciate the analysis. I'm looking forward to seeing JP get that money shooting stroke back and also to Has' becoming more of a factor on the offensive end. Seems to me he ought to get 10 shots a game or so counting what comes from the offense and putbacks. It does seem that he's become a more effective passer this year. Go Bills!!

[slu72]

The most promising aspect of our last 2 games is the passing game. We’re looking hard for the open man rather than slash and dash to the hoop. 

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

I trust the wiz with my life. We are back. 

[someoneelse]

Slightly OT—Michigan had about three weeks off and, first game back, went to Wisconsin and won by 8.  No rust for the Wolverines. Already a ranked #3, they don’t miss a beat. 

[The Wiz]

37 minutes ago, someoneelse said:

Slightly OT—Michigan had about three weeks off and, first game back, went to Wisconsin and won by 8.  No rust for the Wolverines. Already a ranked #3, they don’t miss a beat. 

Michigan had a 14 day pause with no positive cases....then had a full week of practice.  A little bit different from SLU who had 12 positive cases...was off 4 weeks and then came back after a few days practice. It is not about the layoff.... the rust comes from the virus itself.  Even if you are asymptomatic, it can still affect your game. And we actually had players who were symptomatic. ...So a big difference between the Bills who were knocked down by the virus and the Wolverines who had a pause.

I think for the team to be playing at an A- level, after you consider the severity and the spread of the Covid,  is nothing short of a miracle.

[AnkielBreakers]

Here is a weird question. Do our numbers (overall stats from some Bayesian statistical model) look better or worse with Goodwin at the point?

[RUBillsFan]

10 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Here is a weird question. Do our numbers (overall stats from some Bayesian statistical model) look better or worse with Goodwin at the point?

I'm not sure if this is exactly what you're loooking for, but lends some evidence that a lineup with Goowin at the point is better than our normal starting lineup:

A few things that are suspect about the above tweet:

1. I believe based on the minute totals that this is A10 conference games only
2. The sample sizes IMO are really too small to draw solid conclusions
3. Presumably that starting lineup is always up against the other team's best while some of the others may be going against subs more often.

I do think you can some info though.  Biggest takeaway is the one mentioned in the tweet: French is a monster on D and difficult to replace.

[dlarry]

12 hours ago, someoneelse said:

Slightly OT—Michigan had about three weeks off and, first game back, went to Wisconsin and won by 8.  No rust for the Wolverines. Already a ranked #3, they don’t miss a beat. 

 

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Michigan had a 14 day pause with no positive cases....then had a full week of practice.  A little bit different from SLU who had 12 positive cases...was off 4 weeks and then came back after a few days practice. It is not about the layoff.... the rust comes from the virus itself.  Even if you are asymptomatic, it can still affect your game. And we actually had players who were symptomatic. ...So a big difference between the Bills who were knocked down by the virus and the Wolverines who had a pause.

I think for the team to be playing at an A- level, after you consider the severity and the spread of the Covid,  is nothing short of a miracle.

[Cowboy]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Michigan had a 14 day pause with no positive cases....then had a full week of practice.  A little bit different from SLU who had 12 positive cases...was off 4 weeks and then came back after a few days practice. It is not about the layoff.... the rust comes from the virus itself.  Even if you are asymptomatic, it can still affect your game. And we actually had players who were symptomatic. ...So a big difference between the Bills who were knocked down by the virus and the Wolverines who had a pause.

I think for the team to be playing at an A- level, after you consider the severity and the spread of the Covid,  is nothing short of a miracle.

-yeah, the Big Ten cancelled the Michigan/Illinois game scheduled for last Wednesday so Mich could get a full week of practice in before their next game, the same Big Ten that changed their "rules" to get Ohio St into the football playoffs, a league filled with integrity, legends and leaders

-and what about the A10 and Richmond? how do they get to come back from Covid layoff and play a DIII team to scrape off some rust before getting back into conference play? consistent treatment to league members should be considered

[slufanskip]

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

[cheeseman]

3 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

I have said this before but apparently no one else thinks so.

[AnkielBreakers]

2 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

My eye test in the first half of Fordham made me think we were back overall, better on defense and worse on offense. That could just be having Yuri on the bench on offense.

[The Wiz]

37 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

From the original post in this thread.....

That is where the Bills are today....The win over Fham signaled the end of the Covid rust phase. We are not back to opening day....but neither are we back to Xmas  eve...the day after our last prepause game...KC..  According to my calculations,  we are now at the equivalent of Dec 9th after the Cen Ark game ...We were 6-0...2 weeks into the season and reached an A- level.  We are at A- now.

[Cowboy]

1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

-no you are not, but we're better than the rest in the A10

[willie]

3 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

I think the big difference may be Yuri. Unfortunately the ankle make his full return take even longer. 

[Bills71]

Is Okoro practicing?

[Fraz]

5 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Am I the only one who says my "eye test" says we still aren't quite where we were pre Covid? 

I like how the ball is moving and how we’re defending.  There’s been less hero ball and way more distribution which is key.  Shooting % and rebounding are down which were the 2 biggest strengths pre-shutdown.