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Were all of us (and the AP) fooled?


mrjoelabs

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2 minutes ago, Brighton said:

Like I said, shut down the season and look towards the fall. What a waste of the best talent this program has had since the early 50’s.

Totally. And wish we would have done this in 2018 too. 

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15 hours ago, NH said:

I’m not a huge fan of how we’ve been using Thatch defensively. It feels like his mandate has been to aggressively trap, get steals, get deflections, etc., which he’s certainly capable of doing. But he picks up a ton of fouls and I honestly think he’s more effective just taking out the opposing teams best guard as opposed to being a disruptive trapping force. 
 

Overall, I think our defense has been a little too aggressive. I wish we’d trust our ability to defend for 30 seconds a little more and not force the issue jumping passing lanes and/or taking hand check fouls because our guards are being so aggressive.

I'm pretty pro Travis Ford and assume (including now) that he has a better handle on what we should do than I do or knows what scheme or style fits our personnel best as we see games, he see's everything. However, with that said I too like a little less aggressive defense and would prefer to see us do a better job of keeping the player in front of us. Sometimes it seems we play so aggressive we get beat and then someone has to help leaving an open 3 that we can't recover quick enough to defend. We give up a high percentage of 3's at 35% but at 7 made a game it doesn't appear the number made against us per game is all that bad

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3 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I'm pretty pro Travis Ford and assume (including now) that he has a better handle on what we should do than I do or knows what scheme or style fits our personnel best as we see games, he see's everything. However, with that said I too like a little less aggressive defense and would prefer to see us do a better job of keeping the player in front of us. Sometimes it seems we play so aggressive we get beat and then someone has to help leaving an open 3 that we can't recover quick enough to defend. We give up a high percentage of 3's at 35% but at 7 made a game it doesn't appear the number made against us per game is all that bad

Agreed and I should add that I also generally think Travis is a good coach who has a good handle on how to fit personnel with system. The way our 2018-2019 team defended (including switching defenses mid-play) was one of the more impressive defensive performances I can remember. I don’t think he has found the correct rhythm with this year’s team yet, however. 

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6 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I'm pretty pro Travis Ford and assume (including now) that he has a better handle on what we should do than I do or knows what scheme or style fits our personnel best as we see games, he see's everything. However, with that said I too like a little less aggressive defense and would prefer to see us do a better job of keeping the player in front of us. Sometimes it seems we play so aggressive we get beat and then someone has to help leaving an open 3 that we can't recover quick enough to defend. We give up a high percentage of 3's at 35% but at 7 made a game it doesn't appear the number made against us per game is all that bad

I think the ultra aggressive D was working well (not great) before the break. These guys are slower now and that strategy just isn't going to work until these guys are back 100%

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56 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I am not talking a massive reduction in Goodwin's minutes. I am talking about two or three minutes a game total until Goodwin is back to form.  You can't have your best player since you returned spending more than half the game on the bench.

Goodwin had a double double against Dayton.  Perhaps LaSalle was his worst game of the year.  I'm riding Goodwin full time.  His track record is too good to let one game change his role on the team.

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Weird thought but it seems like we are fighting too hard (obviously love the fight in our team but I think it is a double edged sword). The game isn't coming too us because we are playing so tight and forcing things. I hope tomorrow, regardless of result, we see a team that lets the game come to them and plays much smoother/creatively.

Also, to the folks saying "season is over", I think we have the most talented team in the A-10. Regardless of how bad it is right now, we can right the ship at the right time and blow everyone out in the tournament. This team in an auto-bid 12-13 seed would be a terrifying first round game for anyone.

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6 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

 

Also, to the folks saying "season is over", I think we have the most talented team in the A-10. Regardless of how bad it is right now, we can right the ship at the right time and blow everyone out in the tournament. This team in an auto-bid 12-13 seed would be a terrifying first round game for anyone.

For one thing, if we beat the Bonnies, we are absolutely in line for an at large bid. With a loss, nope. 

That being said, if we can just get back to our old ways by the time A10 tournament starts, we are the favorites to win that.  It may even help if the Bonnies have an at large spot locked up when march hits(which ironic enough could be due to beating us tomorrow).  This teams age and depth is made for tournament runs

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8 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Goodwin had a double double against Dayton.  Perhaps LaSalle was his worst game of the year.  I'm riding Goodwin full time.  His track record is too good to let one game change his role on the team.

Because playing him 31 mpg instead 33.5 he has played in his two conference games this season isn't riding him?  The best player over that last two games has to get more than 18 minutes in a game he isn't in foul trouble.  Right now he should be getting a minute or two of playing time from Goodwin and Perkins each.  With more coming from Perkins than Goodwin. 

Perkins has actually been bad for a five game stretch now.  I don't want to hear how he has averaged over 15 points in that stretch.  The numbers behind that number are awful.  His usage rate has skyrocketed and his efficiency has tanked.

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7 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Because playing him 31 mpg instead 33.5 he has played in his two conference games this season isn't riding him?  The best player over that last two games has to get more than 18 minutes in a game he isn't in foul trouble.  Right now he should be getting a minute or two of playing time from Goodwin and Perkins each.  With more coming from Perkins than Goodwin. 

Perkins has actually been bad for a five game stretch now.  I don't want to hear how he has averaged over 15 points in that stretch.  The numbers behind that number are awful.  His usage rate has skyrocketed and his efficiency has tanked.

I compared it yesterday to what he was fall of last year, just with greater usage.

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4 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Because playing him 31 mpg instead 33.5 he has played in his two conference games this season isn't riding him?  The best player over that last two games has to get more than 18 minutes in a game he isn't in foul trouble.  Right now he should be getting a minute or two of playing time from Goodwin and Perkins each.  With more coming from Perkins than Goodwin. 

Perkins has actually been bad for a five game stretch now.  I don't want to hear how he has averaged over 15 points in that stretch.  The numbers behind that number are awful.  His usage rate has skyrocketed and his efficiency has tanked.

I'm wondering how we would have felt about Larry Hughes SLU career with the advanced stats we now have. 41% FG / 46% 2pt / 29% 3 pt / 69% F/T / 2.4-3.8 ass/to ratio. 20.9 points per game but not very efficient. 

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5 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I'm wondering how we would have felt about Larry Hughes SLU career with the advanced stats we now have. 41% FG / 46% 2pt / 29% 3 pt / 69% F/T / 2.4-3.8 ass/to ratio. 20.9 points per game but not very efficient. 

Hughes played on a team where he was the only real scoring threat, but he was still more efficient and did a better job of involving his teammates than Perkins has over the last five games.  Perkins is putting up 14 shots, shooting 40% overall, 25% from 3 and averaging 1.8 assist per over the last five games.  Nobody on Hughes team averaged over 10 ppg for their career.  Hughes had to carry the load on his back and basically did it all.  He averaged over 2 steals a game.  He finished second in rpg and in apg.  Perkins is on a team where three other players on the team have averaged over 10 ppg in their career.  Two completely different situations and still Hughes was more efficient than Parkins has been over the last five games.

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17 hours ago, mrjoelabs said:

Good points from all. However no one addressed what I think is the biggest point. LSU and NC state are not what we thought they were in 2020 in 2021.  And LSU does have one of the worst defenses in the country. Thats how Perkins went hog wild.

  So, who have we really beaten?   At this point I think the Bonnies might be better than either of those 2 Power 5 teams.

We thought that LSU was a middle of the pack SEC team.  Right now, they are 3rd in the SEC standings.

We thought that NC State would be a middle of the pack ACC team.  Right now, they are 12th out of 15.  So, just a bit below what we thought.

Where is this "they are not what they thought were" attitude coming from?  Seems like one's a little better and one's a little worse.  

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4 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Hughes played on a team where he was the only real scoring threat, but he was still more efficient and did a better job of involving his teammates than Perkins has over the last five games.  Perkins is putting up 14 shots, shooting 40% overall, 25% from 3 and averaging 1.8 assist per over the last five games.  Nobody on Hughes team averaged over 10 ppg for their career.  Hughes had to carry the load on his back and basically did it all.  He averaged over 2 steals a game.  He finished second in rpg and in apg.  Perkins is on a team where three other players on the team have averaged over 10 ppg in their career.  Two completely different situations and still Hughes was more efficient than Parkins has been over the last five games.

Hughes also got to the FT line a crazy amount, which helped his efficiency a ton. 

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2 hours ago, brianstl said:

Hughes played on a team where he was the only real scoring threat, but he was still more efficient and did a better job of involving his teammates than Perkins has over the last five games.  Perkins is putting up 14 shots, shooting 40% overall, 25% from 3 and averaging 1.8 assist per over the last five games.  Nobody on Hughes team averaged over 10 ppg for their career.  Hughes had to carry the load on his back and basically did it all.  He averaged over 2 steals a game.  He finished second in rpg and in apg.  Perkins is on a team where three other players on the team have averaged over 10 ppg in their career.  Two completely different situations and still Hughes was more efficient than Parkins has been over the last five games.

I know it seemed that way and I should have been more clear but I wasn't attempting to compare the 2. Just the talk about his efficiency made me wonder how we'd look at Larry if the same advanced stats as we have now would have been readily available then. 

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51 minutes ago, BACKHANDtheRICAN said:

Will there be an NIT tournament this year? I hadnt heard...

Per Dan Gavitt, he hopes so, but the NCAA is concentrating right now on the Big Dance.  NIT is not 100% for sure.  He stated that some invitees might opt out, diluting the tourney.

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3 hours ago, slufanskip said:

I know it seemed that way and I should have been more clear but I wasn't attempting to compare the 2. Just the talk about his efficiency made me wonder how we'd look at Larry if the same advanced stats as we have now would have been readily available then. 

I think if Hughes played in an era with advanced metrics he would have adjusted his game.

Ive heard him talk about his academy and they rely on advanced metrics a ton and use advanced training to help meet goals that apply to said metrics. 
I think you would have seen a lot less midrange from Hughes if the metrics called for it. 
I also think he would have worked on his 3 point shot more and we would have seem an improvement in that. 

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In my considerable experience of watching the Bills over the years, I think that this year's Bills team is the best I have ever seen. With that said, what distinguishes this team over others in my judgement, is that this team contains at least ten players with the skills to compete with any team in the country on a given night. If I have any criticism of the coach it is that I believe it is a mistake to over focus on the "starters" when assembling the team on the floor at various points in the game. Any one of these ten or so can have a dominant night and the challenge is to find and keep those players on the floor. Any one of this group can be a "starter" on a given night. 

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