The Bills over Day by 10

[The Wiz]

For those that missed it , it would be a good idea to check out my preconference Bills report 1/24/21 to gain a better understanding of this forecast and why this game is important.

Dayton comes in as a B team.  A tough team to start with after a long layoff. They are not only coming off their worst game of the year but one of the worst games in the A-10 this year....31/15/50....a triple F- .   They will be hungry for a win on Tues.

Before looking at the report card, I wanted to point out an oddity.   Under Day Defense I have included FT defense....not a stat I usually post. I did it because Day is currently ranked #1 in the nation in D FT%...What is this ?  It is a combination of a team playing poor FT shooting teams AND selectively fouling weak opp players.. Again , not something I would normally list but worth noting.

Also the report card looks very good ...one of the few things that improves with a layoff IF you have good numbers. A few players have fallen off the indiv stat rankings as they don't have enough numbers to make the top 100 due to the shortage of games. And Jordan has slipped from #1 to 8th ITN in Double-Doubles also due to a lack of games...but 8th is not to shabby.

Let's take a look at the Card ....

.............................SLU.................................Day........................................................SLU.........................................Day

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A+...15th ITN.................D-............................................................A-.....................................B+

FG%.........................A+...10th ITN.................A..............................................................B......................................C+

3Pt%........................A+ ...6th ITN.................B...............................................................C......................................B-

FT%.........................B.... ................................B+.....................................................................................................A+...1st ITN

Reb.........................B......................................F...............................................................A+...2nd ITN....................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense..,PPG...FG%...Reb. ......Defense ...PPG...FG%...3P%

Down...Offense...none......Defense....none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins...6th....up

Rebs...Goodwin....8th....up

PPG....Perkins.......97th...up

Stls......Goodwin.....43rd...up...Collins...78th...up

3P%....Perkins....9th...up

Blks...French...42th ...up

Double Double....Goodwin...8th ...dn

Dayton

PPG...Crutcher...84th

Rebs...Crutcher...91st

Injury report....Chatman ...starting G...Right hand ...torn ligament...1.6/21...Surgery...est return 3/2/21

Chatman is a meaningful loss to the Flyers....a player who adds  points and assists to the game. The Flyers will try to slow the game down.

WWN2D2W....Dominate the boards...I would like to see us win the battle by at least 8 rebs...also an up tempo game would help...75+ pts should give us a win though that may be a lot to ask after a layoff. ..a decent shooting night would help ...48/36/72...stop Crutcher ...hold him to 14 pts....avoid mistakes ...11 TOs 

Bottom line... We need to win this game ...by any amount.  There are so many ways we could do it,  we just need to click a little bit.  Another reason this game is important is that our next 2 foes (Rich & GW ) are on pause right now.  So there is a possibility of another 2 week break after this game... no reason to hold back ....Let's just do it.

 

 

 

 

[Quality Is Job 1]

Wiz, I don't believe it's correct that Richmond is "on pause."  They came off of pause to lose to La Salle yesterday.  They'd postponed one game (St. Bonaventure 1/20), but their prior game was as far back as 1/9.

[Cowboy]

-thanks Wiz, hope we play well and crush them but I am not touching this game

[billiken_roy]

I hope wiz is correct on his prediction, but i am not as confident after the team being off for a month.   there is bound to be issues from physical conditioning to lack of repetitions in practice that will give points back to dayton.   not saying we cant win, but 10 points on an annual conference top tier team is a lot at any time beyond after a long layoff. 

[The Wiz]

9 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Wiz, I don't believe it's correct that Richmond is "on pause."  They came off of pause to lose to La Salle yesterday.  They'd postponed one game (St. Bonaventure 1/20), but their prior game was as far back as 1/9.

You are correct...They were off 2 weeks and came back Sat against LaS and played terrible ...They were 15 pt favorites...The Rich coach  said they were slow to react and slow to the ball.................13 min into the game  Rich led 29-22....and then they faded as LaS went on a 9-0 run....In the second half Rich fought back to take a 2 pt lead...at what time?......13 min into the 2nd half and again LaS came back to win by 6.... an 8 pt gap from the time Rich faded. This is not a so much a game analysis ...but a Covid game analysis.  Rich was able to go 13 min of basketball in each half. There was a 22 pt swing on the game (15 on the spread plus 7 on the actual loss).  78 pts on offense was good but as the Coach said "we lost it on defense".

Rich was out 2 weeks with Covid and only missed 1 game....every situation is different ....but a cautionary tale....

[AnkielBreakers]

21 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

I hope wiz is correct on his prediction, but i am not as confident after the team being off for a month.   there is bound to be issues from physical conditioning to lack of repetitions in practice that will give points back to dayton.   not saying we cant win, but 10 points on an annual conference top tier team is a lot at any time beyond after a long layoff. 

Negative Nancy. Debbie Downer.

Our team remembers Dayton’s win last year, and is going to be amped for revenge.

[wgstl]

27 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

I hope wiz is correct on his prediction, but i am not as confident after the team being off for a month.   there is bound to be issues from physical conditioning to lack of repetitions in practice that will give points back to dayton.   not saying we cant win, but 10 points on an annual conference top tier team is a lot at any time beyond after a long layoff. 

Im more worried about shooting than physicality. We have depth.

[AnkielBreakers]

1 minute ago, wgstl said:

Im more worried about shooting than physicality. We have depth.

Didn’t we start the season shooting like 60% from three? JP definitely was hitting at that rate for a while. Maybe we are the layoff kings?

[wgstl]

6 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Didn’t we start the season shooting like 60% from three? JP definitely was hitting at that rate for a while. Maybe we are the layoff kings?

Ya but at least to start the season, we were practicing daily for a while. 

[HoosierPal]

41 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

I hope wiz is correct on his prediction, but i am not as confident after the team being off for a month.   there is bound to be issues from physical conditioning to lack of repetitions in practice that will give points back to dayton.   not saying we cant win, but 10 points on an annual conference top tier team is a lot at any time beyond after a long layoff. 

Agree.  I will be disappointed if we see a marked lapse in defense.  We do have the bodies to throw out there to defend.  Bell, Hightower and Strickland can all be out on the floor to defend for a short shift.   (Bell v Tshimanga - yeah.)

I won't be surprised at all if our offense is sluggish.  We really only go 6 or 7 deep on the offensive end, as far as significant scorers.  Watching Richmond's return, their spacing was off at times and their second half shooting significantly faltered, perhaps due to tired legs?

[JettFlight5]

6 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Agree.  I will be disappointed if we see a marked lapse in defense.  We do have the bodies to throw out there to defend.  Bell, Hightower and Strickland can all be out on the floor to defend for a short shift.   (Bell v Tshimanga - yeah.)

I won't be surprised at all if our offense is sluggish.  We really only go 6 or 7 deep on the offensive end, as far as significant scorers.  Watching Richmond's return, their spacing was off at times and their second half shooting significantly faltered, perhaps due to tired legs?

This is where I think you may see the return of bully ball. If the shots aren't falling, Travis is going to send everybody and their brother to the glass. Physically, Dayton should be a team the Bullikens can push around if needed. 

[billiken_roy]

hoosier pal, i agree you describe the best answer, however, we all know coach ford's want to keep his rotation short.   we just have to hold our breath and hope for the best over the next 36 hours.   but yes, use that athletic bench if at least for short spurts to keep our best strong particularly for the end of the game.  you just know this comes down to that last 4 minutes where crutcher typically is his best.   i dont want him to have a chance.  

[SLU_Nick]

Given how other teams have laid eggs coming off of Covid pauses, if we do indeed cover this spread then our legend will continue to grow

Richmond losing to LaSalle was just abysmal.  

[bauman]

Any word on if anyone will be allowed in Chafefz, or a complete shutdown?  I would think since family and friends were allowed at the last game and we had the COVID outbreak after that, that no one would be allowed in, even if STL city guidelines would allow some to attend.

With as slow as the rollout of vaccine shots being given on both sides of the river has happened, I'm not thinking any of us will be allowed into an arena for months.  I know that you can sit socially distanced from other attendees but you won't be while waiting in lines to get in or while walking around in the concourse or in restrooms.  As of today, even though I am in the 65+ group, I have heard nothing on any of my multiple registrations and given that the 2nd shot needs to be 30 days (approx) after the first, that takes me into March and the home schedule will be done at that point.  A real disappointment not being able to see this team, and especially the 3 outstanding seniors.  Even more disappointing is the fact that these outstanding contributors to the Billiken program will not be able to be honored in front of 10,000 at their final home games.

[ARon]

10 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Wiz, I don't believe it's correct that Richmond is "on pause."  They came off of pause to lose to La Salle yesterday.  They'd postponed one game (St. Bonaventure 1/20), but their prior game was as far back as 1/9.

They’re on pause from being a good team.

[billiken_roy]

21 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

Given how other teams have laid eggs coming off of Covid pauses, if we do indeed cover this spread then our legend will continue to grow

Richmond losing to LaSalle was just abysmal.  

i was actually of the belief that lasalle is better than what all thought and richmond's lack of depth was exposed.   while i know lasalle is likely not an ncaa tourney quality team, they also arent a tier 4 team either.   and richmond not having a quality bench shows they arent the top team in the conference everyone out side of area code 314 expected.   

[Cowboy]

53 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Agree.  I will be disappointed if we see a marked lapse in defense.  We do have the bodies to throw out there to defend.  Bell, Hightower and Strickland can all be out on the floor to defend for a short shift.   (Bell v Tshimanga - yeah.)

I won't be surprised at all if our offense is sluggish.  We really only go 6 or 7 deep on the offensive end, as far as significant scorers.  Watching Richmond's return, their spacing was off at times and their second half shooting significantly faltered, perhaps due to tired legs?

-has Strickland returned? does he have to Q after traveling? this game should be an all hands on deck approach, even JGood might not get 30 minutes and I hate that

[Fan Guy]

I would like to remind everyone that if it hasn't been mentioned yet. The number one team in the preseason ending up in the middle of the pack curse continues. 

[slu72]

I think we're going to have to DEPTH CHARGE the Flyers. 30 days off from practice, games, and daily conditioning routines is a high hurdle to overcome. Hopefully, our mental attitude has not suffered, but with JGood being the team leader, I don't think the mental side will be that significant. Still we all know that tired legs can really affect shooting, defending, and getting to the boards. I just think Travis is going to have go deep into the bench to provide 3 to 4 minute breathers throughout the game for our top 8 players. One telling fact was that he cancelled the second practice on Saturday. He must have seen a lot of players either slowing down or bending over and tugging on their shorts. This frigging plague is so all over the map on the lingering impacts it has on an individual's health system it's hard to predict who and how they'll react to game speed and physicality. In our 8 games we were the team pushing up the tempo. Will we be able to play this way tomorrow night? I don't expect we will see up tempo for a few games out of concern for the players' health. Bottom line: I don't know what to expect or see tomorrow night. I just pray everyone stays healthy and gets back to normal every day. 

[kshoe]

48 minutes ago, bauman said:

Any word on if anyone will be allowed in Chafefz, or a complete shutdown?  I would think since family and friends were allowed at the last game and we had the COVID outbreak after that, that no one would be allowed in, even if STL city guidelines would allow some to attend.

With as slow as the rollout of vaccine shots being given on both sides of the river has happened, I'm not thinking any of us will be allowed into an arena for months.  I know that you can sit socially distanced from other attendees but you won't be while waiting in lines to get in or while walking around in the concourse or in restrooms.  As of today, even though I am in the 65+ group, I have heard nothing on any of my multiple registrations and given that the 2nd shot needs to be 30 days (approx) after the first, that takes me into March and the home schedule will be done at that point.  A real disappointment not being able to see this team, and especially the 3 outstanding seniors.  Even more disappointing is the fact that these outstanding contributors to the Billiken program will not be able to be honored in front of 10,000 at their final home games.

There will be some fans at the game tomorrow.

[kshoe]

1 hour ago, SLU_Nick said:

Given how other teams have laid eggs coming off of Covid pauses, if we do indeed cover this spread then our legend will continue to grow

Richmond losing to LaSalle was just abysmal.  

Are there any "semi-comprehensive" stats on how teams have performed coming off longer COVID layoffs or is it all anecdotal? 

I ask because there are also examples of teams doing well after they come back. Georgia tech was off for 17 days and hammered Clemson in its first game back and only lost by 2 to Virginia in it's next game. Florida St was off for 2 weeks and has gone 4-0 since coming back including a 32 point thrashing of NC State in the first game back.

I'd think if the "teams always underperform on the first games back" concept was a real issue, Vegas would be all over that and the lines would be adjusted accordingly. I think I saw on twitter today we opened as 8.5 point favorites, not all that different than the Wiz's 10.

[SLU_Nick]

I mean, I bet Seton Hall 1H +4 against Villanova and had LaSalle moneyline at +800 hit and I have won every bet blind-fading Clemson their last 3 games.  The Clemson/FSU line particularly made no sense to me.  So Vegas perhaps have not adjusted yet.   (Too bad I lose it all back on NFL.  NFL is impossible)

But at the same time, when Dayton line comes out at +5.5 against us, are you really gonna back Dayton only to have Perkins drop 30 on them?  Definitely no bet tomorrow night.

32 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Are there any "semi-comprehensive" stats on how teams have performed coming off longer COVID layoffs or is it all anecdotal? 

I ask because there are also examples of teams doing well after they come back. Georgia tech was off for 17 days and hammered Clemson in its first game back and only lost by 2 to Virginia in it's next game. Florida St was off for 2 weeks and has gone 4-0 since coming back including a 32 point thrashing of NC State in the first game back.

I'd think if the "teams always underperform on the first games back" concept was a real issue, Vegas would be all over that and the lines would be adjusted accordingly. I think I saw on twitter today we opened as 8.5 point favorites, not all that different than the Wiz's 10.

 

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, bauman said:

Any word on if anyone will be allowed in Chafefz, or a complete shutdown?  I would think since family and friends were allowed at the last game and we had the COVID outbreak after that, that no one would be allowed in, even if STL city guidelines would allow some to attend.

With as slow as the rollout of vaccine shots being given on both sides of the river has happened, I'm not thinking any of us will be allowed into an arena for months.  I know that you can sit socially distanced from other attendees but you won't be while waiting in lines to get in or while walking around in the concourse or in restrooms.  As of today, even though I am in the 65+ group, I have heard nothing on any of my multiple registrations and given that the 2nd shot needs to be 30 days (approx) after the first, that takes me into March and the home schedule will be done at that point.  A real disappointment not being able to see this team, and especially the 3 outstanding seniors.  Even more disappointing is the fact that these outstanding contributors to the Billiken program will not be able to be honored in front of 10,000 at their final home games.

May covered this in an earlier interview.  I'm not sure if you can find it, but I posted a recap of it on the Radio/TV thread.  The short answer is yes, pretty much same as the KC game.  Longer term, he said he foresees increasing attendance, but there will be no general admission to any games.  They will use the priority list of Billiken Club and Donors to offer tickets, starting at the top of the list.

[joe_davola]

2 hours ago, JettFlight5 said:

This is where I think you may see the return of bully ball. If the shots aren't falling, Travis is going to send everybody and their brother to the glass. Physically, Dayton should be a team the Bullikens can push around if needed. 

Agreed, but bully ball can be exhausting for a team that is coming off the Rona.  Fully expecting Travis to be running the sidelines for substitutions like clockwork tomorrow.

[hmart23]

1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-has Strickland returned? does he have to Q after traveling? this game should be an all hands on deck approach, even JGood might not get 30 minutes and I hate that

Where did Strickland travel to? I must have missed that