The Wiz's Preconference Bills Forecast 1/24/21

[The Wiz]

I am back.

My last report was on Dec 27.  That day I did 2 reports . One was an A-10 preconference forecast and another was a spread thread on the upcoming Duq game. A few days earlier on Xmas eve, I put out my Top 25 list.  Is it just me or does all that seem like it happened a year ago.

The purpose of this post is threefold....1  To look at where we have been.....2  To analyze where we are now and   3  To try and figure out what it means and where we are going.

Where we have been.

We started the season with high hopes (rightfully so) and lots of uncertainty. A little for the Bills (we knew we were good)  and a lot more as to how the season  would play out (Covid)  College basketball stumbled out of the gate starting 2 weeks late and a lot of teams missing in action on opening day. The Bills looked good to start and better as the season progressed. You could see the team starting to gel. At the end of the OOC we were 7-1...an A rated team... I had us at 23rd in the nation...The AP had not yet rated us on Dec 24.  But sure enough,  just 11 days after my forecast , we made the AP big time at....23rd in the nation...In the NET we reached as high as 10th in the nation. We were on top of the basketball world poised to climb even higher.

And then the train went off the tracks.

Where we are 

Last game played ...KC on Dec 23...If we play Dayton on Tues, it will have been over a month since our last game with only a few practices in the last few days. I have put together a model using data not only from this season but from previous seasons where teams have laid off for long periods of time for various reasons.  There are many factors that go into a layoff ...how long ...how many players are affected...how much practice during the layoff...How good was the team before the layoff (good teams tend to come back faster)...What does the schedule look like when you comeback (how many games to be played.... over what time and against who) and what lingering effects does the layoff have (both mental and physical)  The data for these layoffs are spotty and vary from situation to situation.  Here are some general parameters gleaned from this data....

Layoff time

1 week ....negligible

2 weeks....small

3 weeks....medium

1 month....large

What this means, generally, is that whatever time you are off ....you turn the clock back that much time.. In the Bills case, we turn the clock back 34 days from their last game. (Dec 24-Jan 26=34 days)  So on Tues when we play Dayton  it will be the equivalent of  Nov 19  (Nov 19- Dec23=34 days)  On Jan 26, we should be at least at the same level we were about a week before we played SIU-e in the first game of the season. 

Where we are going

Now it is time to talk about "rust" or the staleness factor.  Rust is the term used to describe how the layoff affected you.  This factor includes any lingering affects. As mentioned above when we last played, we were an A team and 23rd in the nation. My estimate now is that we are currently about an A- team and about 38th  in the nation. About 1/2 of the deterioration is a result  of a number of the "good" teams we have played losing and falling in stature.  The other half of our deterioration is rust.

The next game will be very important.  But we need to look at it through different glasses. Most people look at the spread threads to see who is projected to win and by how much.  Both factors to be used as a gauge to see how good we are. After the game, we compare results to the  forecast to see how we did...We are better than we thought ...we are worse than we thought or we are on target. The game against Dayton needs to measured in a different way.  I will use this game as a measure of rust.  After I finish this report, I will do a spread thread on the Dayton game.  In the Dayton game, we will be favored by 10 ....that includes some rust I built into the numbers.  

Here is how the rust factor will affect The Bills.

If we win by 8pts or more.....the layoff had little effect...we should be in good shape going forward

We win by 1-7 pts...small affect ..we will need 2 or 3  games to get sharp.

We lose by 1-7 pts...medium damage....we will need 5 games to be back to form

We lose by 8 pts...Heavy damage...we will need most of the rest of the season to get back to where we were.

Bottom line....The questions going forward are ...how long to shake off the rust and are there any lingering affects.  Something nether I nor the team has an answer to .  We will know a lot more after Tues game.  One thing I know for sure is, we still have good players... we still have good potential....and we have good depth...so that no matter what happens,  we can still  put it together and make a nice run.

 

 

[Major Majerus]

thanks

[Quality Is Job 1]

This is kind of like when college football teams have around a month off between the end of their regular season and their bowl game.  The difference is that usually both teams going into the bowl game have a similar layoff, but the Bills have been off and Dayton hasn't.

[CenHudDude]

5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I am back.

My last report was on Dec 27.  That day I did 2 reports . One was an A-10 preconference forecast and another was a spread thread on the upcoming Duq game. A few days earlier on Xmas eve, I put out my Top 25 list.  Is it just me or does all that seem like it happened a year ago.

The purpose of this post is threefold....1  To look at where we have been.....2  To analyze where we are now and   3  To try and figure out what it means and where we are going.

Where we have been.

We started the season with high hopes (rightfully so) and lots of uncertainty. A little for the Bills (we knew we were good)  and a lot more as to how the season  would play out (Covid)  College basketball stumbled out of the gate starting 2 weeks late and a lot of teams missing in action on opening day. The Bills looked good to start and better as the season progressed. You could see the team starting to gel. At the end of the OOC we were 7-1...an A rated team... I had us at 23rd in the nation...The AP had not yet rated us on Dec 24.  But sure enough,  just 11 days after my forecast , we made the AP big time at....23rd in the nation...In the NET we reached as high as 10th in the nation. We were on top of the basketball world poised to climb even higher.

And then the train went off the tracks.

Where we are 

Last game played ...KC on Dec 23...If we play Dayton on Tues, it will have been over a month since our last game with only a few practices in the last few days. I have put together a model using data not only from this season but from previous seasons where teams have laid off for long periods of time for various reasons.  There are many factors that go into a layoff ...how long ...how many players are affected...how much practice during the layoff...How good was the team before the layoff (good teams tend to come back faster)...What does the schedule look like when you comeback (how many games to be played.... over what time and against who) and what lingering effects does the layoff have (both mental and physical)  The data for these layoffs are spotty and vary from situation to situation.  Here are some general parameters gleaned from this data....

Layoff time

1 week ....negligible

2 weeks....small

3 weeks....medium

1 month....large

What this means, generally, is that whatever time you are off ....you turn the clock back that much time.. In the Bills case, we turn the clock back 34 days from their last game. (Dec 24-Jan 26=34 days)  So on Tues when we play Dayton  it will be the equivalent of  Nov 19  (Nov 19- Dec23=34 days)  On Jan 26, we should be at least at the same level we were about a week before we played SIU-e in the first game of the season. 

Where we are going

Now it is time to talk about "rust" or the staleness factor.  Rust is the term used to describe how the layoff affected you.  This factor includes any lingering affects. As mentioned above when we last played, we were an A team and 23rd in the nation. My estimate now is that we are currently about an A- team and about 38th  in the nation. About 1/2 of the deterioration is a result  of a number of the "good" teams we have played losing and falling in stature.  The other half of our deterioration is rust.

The next game will be very important.  But we need to look at it through different glasses. Most people look at the spread threads to see who is projected to win and by how much.  Both factors to be used as a gauge to see how good we are. After the game, we compare results to the  forecast to see how we did...We are better than we thought ...we are worse than we thought or we are on target. The game against Dayton needs to measured in a different way.  I will use this game as a measure of rust.  After I finish this report, I will do a spread thread on the Dayton game.  In the Dayton game, we will be favored by 10 ....that includes some rust I built into the numbers.  

Here is how the rust factor will affect The Bills.

If we win by 8pts or more.....the layoff had little effect...we should be in good shape going forward

We win by 1-7 pts...small affect ..we will need 2 or 3  games to get sharp.

We lose by 1-7 pts...medium damage....we will need 5 games to be back to form

We lose by 8 pts...Heavy damage...we will need most of the rest of the season to get back to where we were.

Bottom line....The questions going forward are ...how long to shake off the rust and are there any lingering affects.  Something nether I nor the team has an answer to .  We will know a lot more after Tues game.  One thing I know for sure is, we still have good players... we still have good potential....and we have good depth...so that no matter what happens,  we can still  put it together and make a nice run.

 

 

Great post TW.  Full of interesting information.  Can’t wait until Tuesday.

[dlarry]

This game has me incredibly nervous.

I’m worried that the long lay off might completely derail the season. We don’t have enough games to make up for bad losses.

I don’t want to rely on winning the A-10 tourney to go dancing.

[wgstl]

11 minutes ago, dlarry said:

This game has me incredibly nervous.

I’m worried that the long lay off might completely derail the season. We don’t have enough games to make up for bad losses.

I don’t want to rely on winning the A-10 tourney to go dancing.

We’re not in that situation, it would take 2+ losses against the bottom teams for us to be in that position imo.   With that being said, I’m far more nervous for the Richmond game.

as for Dayton game, I don’t expect a lot of attempts from greater than 10 feet. I bet We shoot less than a dozen 3s 

 

 

[slu72]

So unpredictable to say what 34 days between games with only  3 days of practice will bring. I’d like to have us playing Fordham just to ease back into game speed. Correct me if I’m wrong but no team has gone thru what we experienced. I have faith in Ford and he’s always had us on the upswing in the latter stages. So, if push comes to shove I like our chances in the A10 tourney. That’s assuming there is one. Plus we have Refuse to Lose JGood and French.