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2020-2021 NCAA Net Rankings


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Assuming Friday is against UMass, that won't move the NET much. Saturday against the Bonnies could provide a nice bump. Maybe to the 37-39 range. Then a loss to VCU might hold us in the top 40. Still very tight. Gotta wonder if Ford would schedule another game next week against a team like Memphis if the team has a NET of 38 and 8 days off.

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55 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Assuming Friday is against UMass, that won't move the NET much.

Given how last night went, I think a comfortable win 10+ on a neutral court would give us at least 5 spots. 

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We forget how NET can fluctuate "early" in the season and it includes margin of victory and loss. UMass has only played 14 games so a 33-point victory on a neutral court gave it a NET bump from 129 to 109. I'm assuming that's why our NET went up 3 spots to 40 without playing a game. 

I still think the Bills need to win today and tomorrow. But I'm more confident now that winning those two games probably means an at-large bid. We're now 40th in KenPom as well.

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2 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

We forget how NET can fluctuate "early" in the season and it includes margin of victory and loss. UMass has only played 14 games so a 33-point victory on a neutral court gave it a NET bump from 129 to 109. I'm assuming that's why our NET went up 3 spots to 40 without playing a game. 

I still think the Bills need to win today and tomorrow. But I'm more confident now that winning those two games probably means an at-large bid. We're now 40th in KenPom as well.

In my opinion, if we miss the tournament it is solely because of our lack of road wins. Hoping the committee values a couple neutral site wins here. 

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Just now, slufan13 said:

In my opinion, if we miss the tournament it is solely because of our lack of road wins. Hoping the committee values a couple neutral site wins here. 

In the past I have read that the committee places a decent value on neutral site games because the tournament is neutral site.

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31 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

We forget how NET can fluctuate "early" in the season and it includes margin of victory and loss. UMass has only played 14 games so a 33-point victory on a neutral court gave it a NET bump from 129 to 109. I'm assuming that's why our NET went up 3 spots to 40 without playing a game. 

I still think the Bills need to win today and tomorrow. But I'm more confident now that winning those two games probably means an at-large bid. We're now 40th in KenPom as well.

I had forgotten until yesterday about this kinda neat "tool" on the TRank website that let's you plug in results for future games and see where a team is projected as far as NCAA tournament hopes.  https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2021

I don't think it is totally reasonable, but a decent way to judge where we would stand in various scenarios.  The key for me isn't whether or not we are "IN" or not, but the bid % we have.  Unless we win the whole thing we really can't get much better than 50/50 for a bid.

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21 minutes ago, Compton said:

Huh?

If you look at the current info on TRank it lists teams a IN the tournament (3rd to last team IN), but there is also a column for bid% that I think is the odds we would get an at-large bid.  Eventhough TRank has us "IN" right now, we only have a 32.5% chance of actually getting an at-large bid because there are a bunch of other teams right below that % that are "OUT" and also the possibility of fewer at-larges because of teams who wouldn't otherwise get an at-large winning their conference tournaments.

Estimating IN or OUT of the tournament right now doesn't really tell you anything except one guy's or one formula's guess.  That bid % number is more useful I think.

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7 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

I had forgotten until yesterday about this kinda neat "tool" on the TRank website that let's you plug in results for future games and see where a team is projected as far as NCAA tournament hopes.  https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2021

I don't think it is totally reasonable, but a decent way to judge where we would stand in various scenarios.  The key for me isn't whether or not we are "IN" or not, but the bid % we have.  Unless we win the whole thing we really can't get much better than 50/50 for a bid.

Interesting tool, thanks for sharing. For what it's worth, here are the scenarios and results presuming we play VCU:

                                               Odds to NCAA Tourney                   Seed

Today post UMass victory:   40.3                                                  11, 3rd of Last Four Byes

After beating Bonnies:          72.3%                                                10

After losing to VCU               59.8%                                                11, 2nd of Last Four Byes

After beating VCU                100% (obviously)                               9

 

But really curious how close this is to Wiz prediction.  In Wiz I trust.

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35 minutes ago, 2010andBeyond said:

Up to 36 today, a bit better than I expected. I’m increasingly optimistic that a win today will get us in. 

Win and we’re definitely in.. lose a close game I still think we’d be top 40 NET and feel okay 

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3 minutes ago, Fraz said:

Win and we’re definitely in.. lose a close game I still think we’d be top 40 NET and feel okay 

I honestly think we are on the outside looking in if we lose today.  Hell I don’t want to take the chance of winning today and losing in the final.  Totally get what you are saying that we will still have a NET 40 but in no way would I feel okay.  I would be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, joe_davola said:

I honestly think we are on the outside looking in if we lose today.  Hell I don’t want to take the chance of winning today and losing in the final.  Totally get what you are saying that we will still have a NET 40 but in no way would I feel okay.  I would be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.

Lunardi has Colorado St, Boise, and Xavier all in his Last 4 IN.  Each with bad/significant losses in the last 7 days.  They have all tumbled in the NET but not bracketology.

Colorado State and Boise play in the MWC quarterfinal.  This is a virtual play in game so a spot will open up.

 

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43 minutes ago, 2010andBeyond said:

Up to 36 today, a bit better than I expected. I’m increasingly optimistic that a win today will get us in. 

Samesies. Obviously it depends on where our opponents end in the NET (and I just briefly glanced at NET rankings on my phone while trying to feed a nagging little 6 month old) but win today and lose to VCU in the finals and we’d likely finish with a record of 15-6,  3-2 in Q1, and a NET in the high 30s. 
 

How about we just win the whole damn thing and enter the tourney as a 10 seed. 

 

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12 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Part of our +14 NET jump was due to NCState becoming a Q2 win and St. Bonnie becoming a Q1 win.  St. B and LSU are barely in Q1.  We win today and St. B could go back to Q2.

Fingers crossed Bona can somehow stay top 30 if we win today. A nice SEC tourney run by LSU would be neato. First things first: a win today in Columbia. 

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12 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

In the 2019 NCAA Tournament, only two teams in the NET top 40 got left out, NC State (33) who had the #352 SOS and was horrible in Q1, and Clemson (35), who had similar issues. 
 

win today and I think we’re in.

i say we also need a VCU win.   a loss to VCU in the championship wont kill us.  a loss to davidson will imo.  the committee is not letting 4 A-10 teams in.   I say VCU and St Bonnie's are in regardless.   so this tourney now is us and davidson for the last spot for the A10

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5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i say we also need a VCU win.   a loss to VCU in the championship wont kill us.  a loss to davidson will imo.  the committee is not letting 4 A-10 teams in.   I say VCU and St Bonnie's are in regardless.   so this tourney now is us and davidson for the last spot for the A10

Agreed.  We need vcu in the final and we need to win today.  Before this tourney started I felt we had to win the whole thing...I’m more and more comfortable thinking we get in if we beat the bonnies today and have a close loss to VCU in the finals (although I know we can beat them).  We absolutely have to win the entire tourney imo if Davidson makes it to the final.

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43 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I don't understand the Bonnies ranking. I'm glad they have it as it help us. But they have 1 win at home against VCU that is decent. They have losses to @RI, @SLU, @VCU, and home vs Dayton. 

They are 4-3 in Q1/2 and 6-1 in Q3 with the loss to #80 Dayton.

We are also 4-3 in Q1/2 but 4-2 in Q3, with that butt-ugly loss to #202 LaSalle in addition to #80 Dayton. 

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

They are 4-3 in Q1/2 and 6-1 in Q3 with the loss to #80 Dayton.

We are also 4-3 in Q1/2 but 4-2 in Q3, with that butt-ugly loss to #202 LaSalle in addition to #80 Dayton. 

Grouping Q1 and Q2 together makes it look equal. However we have 2 Q1 wins they have 0

The quadrant system is stupid anyway. Considering a win against the 31st team and the 75th team equal is ridiculous. 

Or we could beat Gonzaga at home or Furman on the road and they're equal. 

I just don't see any sort of realistic evaluation that puts the Bonnies as higher ranked than us. And I know it doesn't count this way but it should WE BEAT THEM BY DOUBLE DIGITS

Either way it's in our hands tonight. 

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