The Bills over Duq by 13

[The Wiz]

 

And so we begin conference play.  A lot of uncertainty coming into this game....mainly on the Duq side.   We know what we are ...an A team but what about  Duq....I have them rated as a B-  team...BUT they have only played 2 games... the last game played was nearly a month ago...Dec 2.  If you read the post I put up earlier today (A-10 preconf forecast) you will see that the A-10 is broken into 2 parts...the best and the worst.   Duq falls into the category of ...Best of the worst.

Let's see what we are dealing with....

.............................SLU..........................Duq........................................................SLU.........................................Duq

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A-.............................C................................................................B+.....................................D+

FG%.........................A...............................D...............................................................C+......................................F-...12th WITN

3Pt%........................A+ 16th ITN.............F+............................................................C-.........................................D+

FT%.........................B...... ........................A-..............................................................................................................

Reb.........................C+..............................D.................................................................A+ 9th ITN..........................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense..none. ......Defense ..PPG

Down...Offense...PPG...FT%...Reb......Defense....none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins....12th....up

Rebs...Goodwin....11th....dn

Stls......Goodwin.....84th....dn

3P%...Jacobs...15th... up....Perkins....70th...up

Blks...French...65th ...up

Double Double...Goodwin...1st...since 12/24/20

Duq

Reb....Hughes....50th

Stls...Dunn-Martin...7th

Injury report....

12/26/20...M Austin...G......Questionable....Unspecified Illness...Missed the previous game on 12/2/20 due to this illness....Unkown if he will play on Wed.

So not much to see on the Duq side....not much offense or defense....but they have a couple of bright spots...they can shoot FTs and they can force TOs (A+...8th ITN) Today's practice is the 1st practice they have had in a week...there will be one tomorrow and then they are off to the Fetz...hopefully.

WWN2D2W....Keep TOs down....no more than 12...they do have a weakness here though ...while they are great at forcing TOs , they also turn it over a lot ...look for 15+ TOs or at least 3+ in our favor. Rebs ...we should dominate....I would like to see a margin of 10 in our favor. Dunn-Martin and Weathers are their offensive threats. DM will be throwing up 3s and Weathers will be getting the pts close in....We need to hold these 2 to no more than 24pts combined.

Bottom line...Poor  offense and defense...so we got them , right? Almost...We have to protect the ball and shoot well...if we get careless and turn the ball over or go cold or let Weathers or DM have a big night then it could slip away...Best of the worst means they are just good enough to win if we falter.  We take care of business ...then we win.

[Billikenbooster]

Destroy the Dukes!

mhg

[wgstl]

Ready for the real season.

 

also go pack, tigers, and gophers. 

[JettFlight5]

This game is worrisome for a lot of reasons. The Bills are a ton better than last year where the Dukes had their way with SLU.

Couple random musings:

1. Could we see more minutes for Jimmy Bell against Hughes? I like that matchup (if Jimmy is well) more than Linssen against Hughes. 

2. Sincere Carry has made some big plays against us...who guards him? I would like to see a combo of JGood and Fred with the caveat that nobody leaves Dunn-Martin.

3. Who guards Weathers? He tore us up last year, and I'm betting Coach Ford has a few tricks up his sleeve. I think Has has really improved his defensive range in the minutes he's played this year, so maybe he can keep Weathers in front of him. 

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, JettFlight5 said:

This game is worrisome for a lot of reasons. The Bills are a ton better than last year where the Dukes had their way with SLU.

Couple random musings:

1. Could we see more minutes for Jimmy Bell against Hughes? I like that matchup (if Jimmy is well) more than Linssen against Hughes. 

2. Sincere Carry has made some big plays against us...who guards him? I would like to see a combo of JGood and Fred with the caveat that nobody leaves Dunn-Martin.

3. Who guards Weathers? He tore us up last year, and I'm betting Coach Ford has a few tricks up his sleeve. I think Has has really improved his defensive range in the minutes he's played this year, so maybe he can keep Weathers in front of him. 

In our first meeting last season, Dunn-Martin hit us for 21.  Weathers went for 26, twice.  We are 15-17 against Duquesne and have lost 4 of the last 5 games.  It's time to turn that bus around.

[almaman]

25 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

In our first meeting last season, Dunn-Martin hit us for 21.  Weathers went for 26, twice.  We are 15-17 against Duquesne and have lost 4 of the last 5 games.  It's time to turn that bus around.

If we can find it

[RUBillsFan]

59 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

In our first meeting last season, Dunn-Martin hit us for 21.  Weathers went for 26, twice.  We are 15-17 against Duquesne and have lost 4 of the last 5 games.  It's time to turn that bus around.

It is all about slowing Weathers down.  Dunn-Martin is a streaky shooter (only 35% career at Duq) who can't hurt you anywhere else.  Carry is a good PG, but not particularly lethal himself on offense.

We need to limit Weathers, but also avoid fouling him.  He shot 9/12 and 11/13 from the line against us last season.  He's a career 66% FT shooter, so he did hit slightly more than usual, but we can't have him living at the foul line.

Overall Duq is a below average 3pt shooting team.  We need to force them to beat us from 3 and avoid putting them on the FT line.

[AnkielBreakers]

7 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

It is all about slowing Weathers down.  Dunn-Martin is a streaky shooter (only 35% career at Duq) who can't hurt you anywhere else.  Carry is a good PG, but not particularly lethal himself on offense.

We need to limit Weathers, but also avoid fouling him.  He shot 9/12 and 11/13 from the line against us last season.  He's a career 66% FT shooter, so he did hit slightly more than usual, but we can't have him living at the foul line.

Overall Duq is a below average 3pt shooting team.  We need to force them to beat us from 3 and avoid putting them on the FT line.

Weathers is a tough matchup. It was really hard last year with our post depth. Do they still have Steele, or someone equal as a replacement? Last year, this was the only team that matched us in rebounding and could beat us in the post, which kind of negated our advantages.

We are a much different team than we were last year. It is good to be worried.  However, I think things will go differently from last year.

[slu72]

We’ll need Perkins and Jimerson to find their strokes. 

[3star_recruit]

1 hour ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Weathers is a tough matchup. It was really hard last year with our post depth. Do they still have Steele, or someone equal as a replacement? Last year, this was the only team that matched us in rebounding and could beat us in the post, which kind of negated our advantages.

We are a much different team than we were last year. It is good to be worried.  However, I think things will go differently from last year.

We still have no one to guard Weathers.  We have to win this game with offense.  Scoring 64 points, which is what we're averaging in the last two outings against the Dukes, won't get it done.

[billiken_roy]

a good game to start bell to guard hughes and let french manhandle weathers.  lets own the paint to start the game.

[Taj79]

Baylee Steele is gone.  It’s only two games but Dambrot has been starting Rotroff at center and bringing Hughes off the bench.  It’s the only bench Dambrot has.  The Dukes get the Pitt GT Kelly eligible but he is a 6’2” guard and led Pitt from 3 last year.  Austin has played one of two so far.  Norman Jr. isn’t much to write home about and we all know Dunn-Martin is just a three point shooter for the most part.  That leaves stopping Weathers and Carry and Carry is looking to distribute more than score.

So far, red shirt junior Amari Kelly hasn’t shown much and Dambrot’s freshmen have shown very little but it’s two games.

I’d start Jacobs for Jimmmmerson and put him on Carry.  Then I’d run Fred at him.  Finally, Goodwin.  Three tough guys going after a singular kid who hadn’t played competitively in almost a month.  Collins gets Dunn-Martin and is instructed to never leave him to double down.

Weathers hasn’t found his form just yet but he did burn us last year.  Still, French, Hargrove and Linssen should work.  Hughes is a Wilson clone —- he tries to block everything but is foul prone.  

I still can’t fathom losing twice to these guys last year but it happened.  If we fall behind and begin to panic and press they will make numerous steals and launch breakaway threes.  It’s what they tend to do.

[3star_recruit]

18 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

a good game to start bell to guard hughes and let french manhandle weathers.  lets own the paint to start the game.

Bell and French started the last two games.  We fell behind early in both.

[BIG BILL FAN]

16 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Baylee Steele is gone.  It’s only two games but Dambrot has been starting Rotroff at center and bringing Hughes off the bench.  It’s the only bench Dambrot has.  The Dukes get the Pitt GT Kelly eligible but he is a 6’2” guard and led Pitt from 3 last year.  Austin has played one of two so far.  Norman Jr. isn’t much to write home about and we all know Dunn-Martin is just a three point shooter for the most part.  That leaves stopping Weathers and Carry and Carry is looking to distribute more than score.

So far, red shirt junior Amari Kelly hasn’t shown much and Dambrot’s freshmen have shown very little but it’s two games.

I’d start Jacobs for Jimmmmerson and put him on Carry.  Then I’d run Fred at him.  Finally, Goodwin.  Three tough guys going after a singular kid who hadn’t played competitively in almost a month.  Collins gets Dunn-Martin and is instructed to never leave him to double down.

Weathers hasn’t found his form just yet but he did burn us last year.  Still, French, Hargrove and Linssen should work.  Hughes is a Wilson clone —- he tries to block everything but is foul prone.  

I still can’t fathom losing twice to these guys last year but it happened.  If we fall behind and begin to panic and press they will make numerous steals and launch breakaway threes.  It’s what they tend to do.

biggest reason we lost both those games, was that we were a combined 18 of 39 from the ft line...

[HoosierPal]

20 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

..BUT they have only played 2 games... the last game played was nearly a month ago...Dec 2. 

 

This may be the most important factor in the game....it has been four weeks since the Dukes played a game.  They sat for 2 weeks, and there is no way they have their game legs back after 2 weeks of practice.  Second half fatigue set in for NCState, who had a similar sit period.  It is highly likely Duquesne won't be running at anywhere peak efficiency. 

With only two games played, it is hard to gauge the Dukes.  Dambrot has nine players with double digit minutes, but with only the two games a month ago, that isn't even a small sample size.  Who knows who might step up for the Dukes and have a 'season high' against the Bills? 

[Bay Area Billiken]

I don't care the score or the margin of victory in this one.

We need to beat Duquesne, period, any way, any (legal) how.

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

18 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

biggest reason we lost both those games, was that we were a combined 18 of 39 from the ft line...

We can bet Dambrot will test the new Billiken FT prowess.  

[bauman]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

We can bet Dambrot will test the new Billiken FT prowess.  

I don't know that we have a new Billiken FT prowess.  Our improved FT % over last year is primarily the result of the mix of players taking the FTs - basically Has taking a much smaller % of the teams total.  Yes, I will give you that JG's improvement helps, but if an opposing coach wants to bring our FT % down from where it is today, the answer is really pretty simple.  Just put HF at the line more often than he has been there so far this year. 

[BilliesBy40]

5 minutes ago, bauman said:

I don't know that we have a new Billiken FT prowess.  Our improved FT % over last year is primarily the result of the mix of players taking the FTs - basically Has taking a much smaller % of the teams total.  Yes, I will give you that JG's improvement helps, but if an opposing coach wants to bring our FT % down from where it is today, the answer is really pretty simple.  Just put HF at the line more often than he has been there so far this year. 

You kind of contradicted yourself. It is a notable change when our highest-usage player, Goodwin, appears to have significantly improved on FTs. 

[slufanskip]

10 minutes ago, bauman said:

I don't know that we have a new Billiken FT prowess.  Our improved FT % over last year is primarily the result of the mix of players taking the FTs - basically Has taking a much smaller % of the teams total.  Yes, I will give you that JG's improvement helps, but if an opposing coach wants to bring our FT % down from where it is today, the answer is really pretty simple.  Just put HF at the line more often than he has been there so far this year. 

One difference is we don't have to have Has in the game in important situations. Do they have the personnel to go to a Hack-a-Has strategy? There is imo significant downside to just giving up fouls unnecessarily as it puts you in the bonus quicker. Shooting 2 rather than a 1 and 1 is a big deal especially when it will mostly come into play down the stretch. You also put your bigs in unnecessary foul trouble. 

[cheeseman]

You don't have to have your bigs take all the fouls against French.  When you double team him do it with a smaller player to spread the fouls out.  Also, the more French is fouled, the more frustrated he will become and he will get more charging fouls called on him possibly.  Saying that getting to the bonus is a big plus is not wrong but if French has missed a bunch of foul shots and not hit his bunnies at the same time then that will not be good for us either.  My guess is if you plan to foul French then you also plan to foul him hard.  If French makes a bunny and gets fouled then no big deal.

[Bay Area Billiken]

57 minutes ago, bauman said:

I don't know that we have a new Billiken FT prowess.  Our improved FT % over last year is primarily the result of the mix of players taking the FTs - basically Has taking a much smaller % of the teams total.  Yes, I will give you that JG's improvement helps, but if an opposing coach wants to bring our FT % down from where it is today, the answer is really pretty simple.  Just put HF at the line more often than he has been there so far this year. 

Jordan Goodwin's FT shooting has dramatically improved so far, knock on wood.

Hasahn French is a great Billiken, a true Warrior, but FT's and Has are not mutually congruent.

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU is better than Duquesne, has better players, needs to show it on the court.

[Cowboy]

3 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Baylee Steele is gone.  It’s only two games but Dambrot has been starting Rotroff at center and bringing Hughes off the bench.  It’s the only bench Dambrot has.  The Dukes get the Pitt GT Kelly eligible but he is a 6’2” guard and led Pitt from 3 last year.  Austin has played one of two so far.  Norman Jr. isn’t much to write home about and we all know Dunn-Martin is just a three point shooter for the most part.  That leaves stopping Weathers and Carry and Carry is looking to distribute more than score.

So far, red shirt junior Amari Kelly hasn’t shown much and Dambrot’s freshmen have shown very little but it’s two games.

I’d start Jacobs for Jimmmmerson and put him on Carry.  Then I’d run Fred at him.  Finally, Goodwin.  Three tough guys going after a singular kid who hadn’t played competitively in almost a month.  Collins gets Dunn-Martin and is instructed to never leave him to double down.

Weathers hasn’t found his form just yet but he did burn us last year.  Still, French, Hargrove and Linssen should work.  Hughes is a Wilson clone —- he tries to block everything but is foul prone.  

I still can’t fathom losing twice to these guys last year but it happened.  If we fall behind and begin to panic and press they will make numerous steals and launch breakaway threes.  It’s what they tend to do.

-do we have this defense? that's a serious question

[slufanskip]

30 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

You don't have to have your bigs take all the fouls against French.  When you double team him do it with a smaller player to spread the fouls out.  Also, the more French is fouled, the more frustrated he will become and he will get more charging fouls called on him possibly.  Saying that getting to the bonus is a big plus is not wrong but if French has missed a bunch of foul shots and not hit his bunnies at the same time then that will not be good for us either.  My guess is if you plan to foul French then you also plan to foul him hard.  If French makes a bunny and gets fouled then no big deal.

I don't know that I want to foul French hard too many times.  I believe the NCAA has issued a warning on this. Please be aware the hard fouling of Hasahn French will almost assuredly cause you to be unable to walk normally for a period of 5-7 days, extreme headaches, and an unnatural fear of the Eifel Tower.