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The Wiz's Top 25...12/24/20


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The win over KC didn't really help us.... I think if we win the next 2 games ...Duq & UMass  (both B- teams )  that might be enough to push us over the top onto the AP Poll,...those would be nice wins assuming we win by the spreads.

Here is what my Top 25 looks like after the KC game...

 

1  Baylor

2 Gonz  

3 Iowa

4Tenn

5  Illini

6 Va

7 Hou

8 Kan

9 Nova

10 Wisc

11 Creigh

12 Mich

13 Tex Tech

14 Ark

15 LSU

16 WVU

17 Fla St

18 Lville

19 SD St

20 Ore

21 Tex

22 Colo

23 THE BILLS...dn 1

24 Rutgers

25 NC

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Compton said:

I just don't see the case for Colorado. They have no meaningful wins. K State (4-5) and Washington (1-6) are real bad and a far cry from LSU (4-1) and NC State (5-1). 

 

They battled Tenn at Tenn  ...They lost but beat the spread on an A+ team...I have Colo about equal to the Bills ...We have a couple of significant wins ...They have the better schedule (C+ ) vs the Bills (D+ ) ... It is still a small sample size (7 games) ... You will know if they are for real in the next few games as they have UCLA & Ore coming up.  Like us, they have no room for error if they want to stay on the list.

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On Sagarin, we're on a steady downward trend since Sunday. Started Sunday at 22, fell to 31 Monday, 33 Wednesday, and 35 today after a win. All that and no losses by teams we've beaten. I realize it doesn't mean much but still surprising.

Also, here's a little something which may brighten your Christmas Eve just a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg7HvF3a_Iw

 

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Wiz...I follow both the Vols and my Bills. Last night both teams played down to their competition. UT will need to play a whole lot better to beat Mizou at CoMo next Weds. They certainly have the athletes to do it, but as the Bills found out last Sunday playing and winning on the road isn't easy. The Bills did not turn around the pace in the game until they went to the 1-3-1. UMKC had big problems when CTF went to that defense. Pace was never a problem for the Vols last night, but defense and shot making was. Bills were picked to finish 2nd in A-10 while UT was picked to finish 1st in the SEC. I actually like the Bills chances of winning the A-10 more than I do of the Vols chances of winning the SEC even with KY having the terrible start. Frankly, the SEC has several teams capable of finishing on top. Will be fun to watch Let's Go Bills and Vols!

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1 hour ago, Slowry said:

I’m surprised not to see Missouri on your list.  Win over Oregon and ILL.  May so ask why they aren’t?

Good question...I get your point. My model uses margin of victory, SOS, calculating offensive ,  defensive  and overall efficiency numbers, and shooting %s. Without digging in too deep into the algorithms,  I think the difference is the offensive numbers at this point.  If you look at The Bills report cards on the spread threads ...we are a juggernaut on offense ...not just As but ranked in the top 20 in a few categories not to mention , we shut down opp rebounding.

It doesn't give us a big edge but enough for The Bills to make it on the list and Mizzou not.  Also, Mizzou only has 6 games played , so differences are a little more magnified.

I can guarantee you that if Mizzou beats Tenn next week, they will make my list.

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48 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Wiz...I follow both the Vols and my Bills. Last night both teams played down to their competition. UT will need to play a whole lot better to beat Mizou at CoMo next Weds. They certainly have the athletes to do it, but as the Bills found out last Sunday playing and winning on the road isn't easy. The Bills did not turn around the pace in the game until they went to the 1-3-1. UMKC had big problems when CTF went to that defense. Pace was never a problem for the Vols last night, but defense and shot making was. Bills were picked to finish 2nd in A-10 while UT was picked to finish 1st in the SEC. I actually like the Bills chances of winning the A-10 more than I do of the Vols chances of winning the SEC even with KY having the terrible start. Frankly, the SEC has several teams capable of finishing on top. Will be fun to watch Let's Go Bills and Vols!

Tenn offense is much better than Mizzou's and a slight edge on defense too. With that said ... I have that game as  even... as Mizzou carries a hefty home court advantage.  I think the game will come down to Tenn shooting ...If they have a "normal " Tenn night ...they will win.  Any coolness and it it will be Mizzou's game.

I agree with you that The Bills have a better chance of winning the A-10 than the Vols  winning the SEC....too many pitfalls on the road for the Vols ..especially Ark & LSU.  The Bills will be fine at home and while there may be some potholes on the road , they should be able to get through them.  Bills looking good to take the A-10...Tenn favored to win the SEC but not a done deal.

 

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On 12/24/2020 at 1:09 PM, Slowry said:

I’m surprised not to see Missouri on your list.  Win over Oregon and ILL.  May so ask why they aren’t?

FYI...

Despite Mizzou being undefeated at 6-0 to the Bills’ 7-1, KenPom also has Mizzou ranked lower — #39 to the Bills at #30. (as of Sunday afternoon)

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