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The Bills over NCSt by 3


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4 minutes ago, dlarry said:

 

That still isn’t a big enough bump.

if that’s ends up being true I’m heading across the river to place a bet.

Hoping they are at full strength.

True, but right now it's just hearsay regarding who is gong to play. Once it's known for sure, the spread will move further. 

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2 hours ago, wgstl said:

Interesting find

 

 

Of the " Doubtful":

Devon Daniels - Their best scorer, averages 18 ppg 28 MPG

DJ Funderburke - Their best big at 8 ppg 3 boards 20 MPG

Cam Hayes - 11  ppg 19 MPG

 

We'll see how accurate this is.  

 

Did some research and identified who is in STL and who had to stay home from NC State.  Looks like they lost a decent amount of scoring from last year (27ppg) and their star freshman (Cam Hayes) is not in STL.  Sounds like 10 might have actually travelled to STL instead of 9 but we will see at tip. The one in question is DJ Funderburk.

I pulled prior year stats for all returning players and current year for the frosh.

 
Yellow = Graduated
Light Blue = Playing
Orange = Didn't make it to STL
 
Bills by 15

 

NC State - Actives.xlsx

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Here is another one that says Daniels traveled:

https://twitter.com/JustinLcooke/status/1339612897014665217/photo/1

Active: Moore, Farrar, Daniels, Farthing, Bate, Hellems, Seabron, Allen, Beverly

Inactive: Graham, Funderburk, Hayes, Gibson, Douwuana

If this is accurate that leaves Bates 6-11 as their only real big man and he is pretty foul prone (5.6 fouls per 40 minutes so far this year, 5.5 per 40 last season).

Here is their depth chart of the last 5 games with the inactive players above crossed out.  Pretty devastating to NC State if true even with Daniels in there.

image.png.839c71ceb8a89801c68af13c3e12d128.png

 

image.png

Edit: I can't figure out how to remove the double picture, sorry.

Bishop and wgstl like this
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9 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Here is another one that says Daniels traveled:

https://twitter.com/JustinLcooke/status/1339612897014665217/photo/1

Active: Moore, Farrar, Daniels, Farthing, Bate, Hellems, Seabron, Allen, Beverly

Inactive: Graham, Funderburk, Hayes, Gibson, Douwuana

If this is accurate that leaves Bates 6-11 as their only real big man and he is pretty foul prone (5.6 fouls per 40 minutes so far this year, 5.5 per 40 last season).

Here is their depth chart of the last 5 games with the inactive players above crossed out.  Pretty devastating to NC State if true even with Daniels in there.

image.png.839c71ceb8a89801c68af13c3e12d128.png

 

image.png

Edit: I can't figure out how to remove the double picture, sorry.

If this is true...then it is not like they are  starting their scrubs....still a competitive team...Daniels is still their main man...Seaborn and Allen will play bigger roles...Prepare for a barrage of 3s if this comes to pass...the spread will widen 2-3 pts in the Bills favor ...if this is how it plays out

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12 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Here is another one that says Daniels traveled:

https://twitter.com/JustinLcooke/status/1339612897014665217/photo/1

Active: Moore, Farrar, Daniels, Farthing, Bate, Hellems, Seabron, Allen, Beverly

Inactive: Graham, Funderburk, Hayes, Gibson, Douwuana

If this is accurate that leaves Bates 6-11 as their only real big man and he is pretty foul prone (5.6 fouls per 40 minutes so far this year, 5.5 per 40 last season).

Here is their depth chart of the last 5 games with the inactive players above crossed out.  Pretty devastating to NC State if true even with Daniels in there.

image.png.839c71ceb8a89801c68af13c3e12d128.png

 

image.png

Edit: I can't figure out how to remove the double picture, sorry.

Looking at their team stats, Allen has started at point in their three games, but Hayes plays more minutes, scores more points and has more assists.  Funderburke has started 2 of 3 and Bates has started 3 of 3.  So it looks like they started Big in 2 of 3.  Bates is their primary rebounder, but Funderburke has scored more points than Bates. 

So their depth will be depleted, but they still have plenty of firepower.

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1 minute ago, HoosierPal said:

Looking at their team stats, Allen has started at point in their three games, but Hayes plays more minutes, scores more points and has more assists.  Funderburke has started 2 of 3 and Bates has started 3 of 3.  So it looks like they started Big in 2 of 3.  Bates is their primary rebounder, but Funderburke has scored more points than Bates. 

So their depth will be depleted, but they still have plenty of firepower.

Missing depth is definitely the key.  Without Hayes, Beverly is their only real PG.  Without Funderburk, Gibson, & Dowuona, Bates is their only real big man.  Foul trouble or injury for either of those guys would really mess them up.  Beverly has 12 assists which is 32% of the potential active players' total.  They need him to handle the ball.  Bates has 8 blocks which is 89% of the potential active players' total.  They need him to protect the rim.

Of the potential actives, Farrar and Farthing barely play at all, so they essentially have 7 guys.  We've seen the Bills play in recent years with only that many or less.  It can certainly work, but is not ideal.

Potential downside for SLU is that scouting this game with missing pieces isn't going to provide as much help.

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Latest:

If Funderburk plays and Hayes is the only real key player out that leaves them thin at PG and perhaps thinner up front without Gibson & Douwuna, but they're still in very good shape / a formidable opponent.

Somewhat blue font - All of this stuff is seemingly COVID related.  If SLU goes down with a positive COVID test next week, we'll at least know who to blame.

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When I was in med school, long ago, I had a good friend that liked to go to horse races. I have told one story about what I learned the day I went to Pimlico with him. The other story was the one about watching the odds in the screen. It appears that a lot of people bet for a really bad horse at the beginning, only to lower the odds for the favorite. Towards the end of the betting period there is a spike in people betting (a good odds) for the favorite. Never trust what the Vegas odds tell you, keep this in mind.

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23 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Latest:

If Funderburk plays and Hayes is the only real key player out that leaves them thin at PG and perhaps thinner up front without Gibson & Douwuna, but they're still in very good shape / a formidable opponent.

Somewhat blue font - All of this stuff is seemingly COVID related.  If SLU goes down with a positive COVID test next week, we'll at least know who to blame.

What makes a guy cleared to travel but not play? so weird.

 

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Survive and Advance...HOF NC St Coach Jimmy Valvano

That's what we did tonight...We dodged a bullet...We broke a major rule and won ...That rule is ...give up 20+ TOs  and you lose. We had 21 TOs...what made it worse is they  had only 8.... So how did we win?....

Let's look at the original post on top...

Out rebound  them by 8.....And did we....We had 53...no you don't have dyslexia ...53 is correct

Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards).....50% above our average...And more than double NC St...53-26...Excellent

This game maybe decided at the charity stripe..... We had 8 more FTM than the Wolves...almost the margin of victory. How far we have come. 

 Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D.  They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge..... The Bills 41.7% ...NC St....22.2% remember this is one of the top shooting 3P teams ITN (5th...one place behind us)...Again excellent.

On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....They made 4...great job

Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...He scored 15...almost right on target...including 0-6 from 3P land....and he is a 43% shooter from the arc.

And finally TOs...Protect the ball or we lose...Certainly this was not correct...But in the end we did protect the ball and as a result we won....except for a an intentional TO in the final few seconds of the game to run out the clock ...The Bills last TO of the game was at the 12min mark of the 2nd half...a team that had given up 20 TOs in 28 min had 0 in the final 12 min and that was the turning point in the game....If you subtract the easy points off the TOs ...NCSt shot 24.2 FG%...No way they could come back shooting 24.2% ...once we stopped giving them points...ball game.

 

They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC  team....

Now we just have to play like one and beat them....We did and we did....What many ACC teams have done in the past ( because of their depth) is to keep coming at you until they wear you down. That's what we did tonight.

It wasn't always pretty but....ADVANCE and SURVIVE. And we did

Road to the Poll...2 down....1 to go

 

 

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