The Bills over NCSt by 3

[Aquinas]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I am using my regular homefield advantage.

While we as fans like to believe we are the reason our team wins at home ...the truth of the matter is, there are many factors that go into home court advantage. ...Travel- How far  is the destination for the visitors and how long to get there...What kind of venues  do you play in and how do those venues affect the sight lines.  The number 1 home field advantage is Univ of Denver...Why?  Because there is no air to breathe...visitors  are huffing and puffing enough to give the Pioneers   a 7 pt advantage.

As to specifically no crowds....the feeling among some handicappers ( I fall into this category) is the stress of covid (everything is harder to do for everybody) offsets the loss of crowd. In other words, whatever the home team loses in crowd support, the visiting team loses in covid travel....whether it is having to take less players, lock down and qurantine where ever you go, longer than normal  travel times...etc.  Again this is being tested now...and if it  is not an exact offset it  is close. And there are those who just use some fraction of home field advantage.

My system adjusts as  it goes anyway so as time goes on the factor of no crowd will change if necessary.

Sagarin is using 2.02 today for his home court advantage. I think his historic advantage is close to 3.5.  So right now, it looks like a crowd is generally worth an extra 1.5 points.

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

Sagarin is using 2.02 today for his home court advantage. I think his historic advantage is close to 3.5.  So right now, it looks like a crowd is generally worth an extra 1.5 points.

A point and a half seems generous to me. In my model, every team has a different home field advantage.  Under normal conditions, with a crowd, the Fairleigh Dickinson model shows a home court advantage of 0.32 pts...which means if you remove the crowd under the Sagarin model and subtract 1.5 pts,   then the visiting team would have a 1.18 pt advantage.

No thanks, I will continue to use my model.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, Scoop said:

They have 9 players that play double digit minutes. I’m gonna go way out on a limb and bet that they are the 9 that they bring.

thanks, I mean really. Half the years of Ford 9 would of been plenty. if traveling with only 9 was only difference from normal this covid year would be we'd take it in a snap.

[joe_davola]

34 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

A point and a half seems generous to me. In my model, every team has a different home field advantage.  Under normal conditions, with a crowd, the Fairleigh Dickinson model shows a home court advantage of 0.32 pts...which means if you remove the crowd under the Sagarin model and subtract 1.5 pts,   then the visiting team would have a 1.18 pt advantage.

No thanks, I will continue to use my model.

Nobody beats the Wiz.

[Aquinas]

4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A point and a half seems generous to me. In my model, every team has a different home field advantage.  Under normal conditions, with a crowd, the Fairleigh Dickinson model shows a home court advantage of 0.32 pts...which means if you remove the crowd under the Sagarin model and subtract 1.5 pts,   then the visiting team would have a 1.18 pt advantage.

No thanks, I will continue to use my model.

It makes sense to have a different home court advantage for each team.  If you just look around the A10, some schools are almost like half empty high-school gyms and in contrast there is Dayton.

[Billiken '04]

Game questions:

Can French control the middle against their size?

Will the game be too fast for Jimerson?

Can Goodwin get his buckets against a much bigger lineup?

Will Perkins be our clutch guy down the stretch?

X Factors:

Thatch, Jacobs, Linsenn (sp?)

Prediction:

Billikens by 3.5

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

It's showtime....

NCSt is an A team ... The Bills are an A team. This game will be similar to the LSU game....who by the way is still an A team.

First, let's look at the report card before we discuss the game

 

.............................SLU..........................NCSt........................................................SLU.....................................NCSt

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A.............................A................................................................A-.....................................A+

FG%.........................A+ 9th ITN............A+ 13th ITN...............................................B-......................................C+

3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............A+ 5th ITN................................................D+......................................D+

FT%.........................B+.... ......................D-........................................................................................................

Reb.........................D+............................D-................................................................A+ 10th ITN......................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Defense....PPG...FG%...3P%..

Down...Offense....PPG...FT%...Reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins....11th....up

Rebs...Goodwin....20th....up

PPG.....Perkins......68th.....dn

Stls......Goodwin.....65th....dn...Collins...65th...new

3P%...Hargrove...33th....dn....Jacobs...39th... up.....Perkins....83rd...up

Blks...French....41st

Double Double...Goodwin...3rd...up 

NCSt

3P%......Hellems....33rd...Allen...39th...Seabron...39th

Blks...Bates...23rd

 

Injury report....None

 

Offense slipped a little ...Defense improved ...Overall.... team is slightly up.  The offense has been sky high, so a little slippage is normal especially as we play better teams.  Glad to see the D is picking up ...we will need that against the better competition.

Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards) and FT shooting( hard to believe I am saying this after last year). This game maybe decided at the charity stripe. Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D.  They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge.  A side note , neither team has a very good grade in 3P D, but we did a  nice job last game.  And finally TOs....First the good news...On TOs we have a B....on opp TOs ...an A- .....The bad news.....they have an A- on TOs ...on opp TOs  ..an A+ ...3rd ITN.....Protect the ball or we lose.

WWN2D2W....Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....Out rebound  them by 8....Match them on TOs...which means we will have to hang around 10.

Bottom line ...I think we are the better team....The numbers show we are equal but here is the difference.... The Pack's opponents look like this....D ...D...D-...They have not played anybody above D...meanwhile , we have an A and a B-  under our belt....We have grades on stats  that match up yet we have played some tougher teams. And thus, we have the reason for this game....Not only to help their SOS but as an ACC team they will be facing 3 A+ teams plus 3 A teams. You can't get ready for that by playing D teams.  They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC  team....

Now we just have to play like one and beat them....

Road to the Poll...1 down ...2 to go.

Printed the Wiz’s lengthy analysis. Used it as accelerant to start a fire for some heat in December. 
 

Bills by 18. 

[Billikenbooster]

Have missed the Joe Davola and Backhand commentaries in the recent past. 
Good to read you!!!

Go Bills!

Unpack the Wolves!!

[Old guy]

The Vegas spread as per TeamRankings is 3.5 favoring SLU. Two stars (out of 4) of confidence.

[DirtyRican]

7 hours ago, BACKHANDtheRICAN said:

Printed the Wiz’s lengthy analysis. Used it as accelerant to start a fire for some heat in December. 
 

Bills by 18. 

You don't need heat on South Beach bro.

[wgstl]

Interesting find

 

 

Of the " Doubtful":

Devon Daniels - Their best scorer, averages 18 ppg 28 MPG

DJ Funderburke - Their best big at 8 ppg 3 boards 20 MPG

Cam Hayes - 11  ppg 19 MPG

 

We'll see how accurate this is.  

 

[brianstl]

14 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Interesting find

 

 

Of the " Doubtful":

Devon Daniels - Their best scorer, averages 18 ppg 28 MPG

DJ Funderburke - Their best big at 8 ppg 3 boards 20 MPG

Cam Hayes - 11  ppg 19 MPG

 

We'll see how accurate this is.  

 

Those are arguably their three best players.  I don't know if to believe this are not.  If this is true, I would expect the line to move big.  I hope it isn't true.  I want the win to be over a NC State team with all their  top guns.

[brianstl]

Well the line has gone to Bills -4.5.

[bauman]

12 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Those are arguably their three best players.  I don't know if to believe this are not.  If this is true, I would expect the line to move big.  I hope it isn't true.  I want the win to be over a NC State team with all their  top guns.

I don't think poll voters know or care.  We didn't get much, if any, extra credit for beating LSU without HF.  At the end of the day a win over NCSt will be thought of as just that and nothing m ore or less.  It will be seen as a win over a mid-level P 5/6 conference team.  Maybe at the end of the season, a Q 1 or at least a good Q2.

Just WIN, Bills!

[The Wiz]

14 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Those are arguably their three best players.  I don't know if to believe this are not.  If this is true, I would expect the line to move big.  I hope it isn't true.  I want the win to be over a NC State team with all their  top guns.

Looks like after seeing that Vegas was in agreement with me...someone decided to widen the spread with a well placed rumor....wouldn't be the first time that's happened in sports betting history...

[wgstl]

2 minutes ago, bauman said:

I don't think poll voters know or care.  We didn't get much, if any, extra credit for beating LSU without HF.  At the end of the day a win over NCSt will be thought of as just that and nothing m ore or less.  It will be seen as a win over a mid-level P 5/6 conference team.  Maybe at the end of the season, a Q 1 or at least a good Q2.

Just WIN, Bills!

I tend to agree, especially with French and LSU. IF NC state does have those players out, we(SLU) need them back ASAP. 

[HoosierPal]

Found this on the NC State board.  Pretty funny.

NCStatestud83 said... (original post)Over/Under on how many times our choke job in the NCAAT against them is brought up or mentioned?

One Response:  the list will be long, but distinguished

 

And Another:

Is Jordair Jett still playing?

 

[kshoe]

The only reason I can think of to not to bring three of your top players would be that they are still under COVID quarantine or had it recently and aren't fully recovered. I don't know the details of their 2 weeks off or if it was reported who tested positive.

I do agree with Bauman that long-term it won't matter to most people whether we beat them with or without those guys. The committee has too much gong on to worry about specific games and the availability of certain players for any single game.

All that being said, I hope they bring their top 9 and we dismantle them...

[HoosierPal]

 

[The Wiz]

First, this is a meaningful game . We are an A team ...they are an A team.   LSU was and  still is a meaningful game . They were and still are an A team. That game helped our standings and rankings. That game will be impactful in the post season review  and so will this one tonight.

Second there is no reason for NCSt to bring their 2nd team only. If they wanted to do that they could stay in NC and bus over NC  Central and still get a win instead of trekking half way across the country to chalk up a loss.

Finally, they have no injuries so unless they are planning on having Covid for lunch today, they should be here with their best people.

A win tonight would be big.

[brianstl]

The first line posted for the game was the Bills -2 at Circa.  The Bills have now reached -5 at Treasure Island.  Looks like everyone else has it at -4.5 right now.

[billikenfan05]

3 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The first line posted for the game was the Bills -2 at Circa.  The Bills have now reached -5 at Treasure Island.  Looks like everyone else has it at -4.5 right now.

Draft Kings doesn't even have it on my app.

[ARon]

12 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

First, this is a meaningful game . We are an A team ...they are an A team.   LSU was and  still is a meaningful game . They were and still are an A team. That game helped our standings and rankings. That game will be impactful in the post season review  and so will this one tonight.

Second there is no reason for NCSt to bring their 2nd team only. If they wanted to do that they could stay in NC and bus over NC  Central and still get a win instead of trekking half way across the country to chalk up a loss.

Finally, they have no injuries so unless they are planning on having Covid for lunch today, they should be here with their best people.

A win tonight would be big.

It is just a message board to take it for what little it is worth:

But some of their fans are speculating that the team has had at least a couple of positives and while some players are cleared to play others are still symptomatic or under quarantine.

They are also supposing they are close enough to conference play that the coach is willing to take a loss just to get reps against a decent team.

[dlarry]

1 hour ago, brianstl said:

Those are arguably their three best players.  I don't know if to believe this are not.  If this is true, I would expect the line to move big.  I hope it isn't true.  I want the win to be over a NC State team with all their  top guns.

 

1 hour ago, brianstl said:

Well the line has gone to Bills -4.5.

That still isn’t a big enough bump.

if that’s ends up being true I’m heading across the river to place a bet.

Hoping they are at full strength.

[JMM28]

1 minute ago, ARon said:

They are also supposing they are close enough to conference play that the coach is willing to take a loss just to get reps against a decent team.

They also are getting a really strong home game out of this in 2 years. That matters for NET and for budget, going forward.